Refitting the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease for the Eurotransplant Region.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The United Network for Organ Sharing's Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (UNOS-MELD) score is the basis of liver allocation in the Eurotransplant region. It was constructed 20 years ago in a small US cohort and has remained unchanged ever since. The best boundaries and coefficients were never calculated for any region outside the United States. Therefore, this study refits the MELD (reMELD) for the Eurotransplant region. APPROACH AND RESULTS: All adult patients listed for a first liver transplantation between January 1, 2007, and December 31, 2018, were included. Data were randomly split in a training set (70%) and a validation set (30%). In the training data, generalized additive models with splines were plotted for each MELD parameter. The lower and upper bound combinations with the maximum log-likelihood were chosen for the final models. The refit models were tested in the validation data with C-indices and Brier scores. Through likelihood ratio tests the refit models were compared to UNOS-MELD. The correlation between scores and survival of prioritized patients was calculated. A total of 6,684 patients were included. Based on training data, refit parameters were capped at creatinine 0.7-2.5, bilirubin 0.3-27, international normalized ratio 0.1-2.6, and sodium 120-139. ReMELD and reMELD-Na showed C-indices of 0.866 and 0.869, respectively. ReMELD-Na prioritized patients with 1.6 times higher 90-day mortality probabilities compared to UNOS-MELD. CONCLUSIONS: Refitting MELD resulted in new lower and upper bounds for each parameter. The predictive power of reMELD-Na was significantly higher than UNOS-MELD. ReMELD prioritized patients with higher 90-day mortality rates. Thus, reMELD(-Na) should replace UNOS-MELD for liver graft allocation in the Eurotransplant region.

Long-term voice outcomes of laryngeal framework surgery for unilateral vocal fold paralysis.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the short- and long-term voice outcomes after unilateral medialization thyroplasty (MT) and unilateral medialization thyroplasty with arytenoid adduction (MT + AA) in patients with unilateral vocal fold paralysis. METHODS: Voice outcomes were assessed preoperatively, and postoperatively at 3 and 12 months according to a standardized protocol. Voice assessment was performed using Voice Handicap Index (VHI), GRBAS Grade, Maximum Phonation Time (MPT), s/z-ratio and subjective numeric rating scales on voice quality, effort, performance and influence on life. RESULTS: Sixty-one patients were included (34 MT and 27 MT + AA). Significant pre- to postoperative improvements were seen in all voice outcome parameters. No significant differences in post-operative values were identified between the groups. CONCLUSION: Based on our findings, we conclude that patients with unilateral vocal fold paralysis who undergo MT and MT + AA achieve comparable and significant long time voice improvement, although voices do not completely normalize. We also conclude that this does not mean that AA is a superfluous procedure, but can indicate the accurate identification of patients in need of the additional AA procedure based on clinical parameters.

Joint modeling of liver transplant candidates outperforms the model for end-stage liver disease: The effect of disease development over time on patient outcome.

Liver function is measured regularly in liver transplantation (LT) candidates. Currently, these previous disease development data are not used for survival prediction. By constructing and validating joint models (JMs), we aimed to predict the outcome based on all available data, using both disease severity and its rate of change over time. Adult LT candidates listed in Eurotransplant between 2007 and 2018 (n = 16 283) and UNOS between 2016 and 2019 (n = 30 533) were included. Patients with acute liver failure, exception points, or priority status were excluded. Longitudinal MELD(-Na) data were modeled using spline-based mixed effects. Waiting list survival was modeled with Cox proportional hazards models. The JMs combined the longitudinal and survival analysis. JM 90-day mortality prediction performance was compared to MELD(-Na) in the validation cohorts. MELD(-Na) score and its rate of change over time significantly influenced patient survival. The JMs significantly outperformed the MELD(-Na) score at baseline and during follow-up. At baseline, MELD-JM AUC and MELD AUC were 0.94 (0.92-0.95) and 0.87 (0.85-0.89), respectively. MELDNa-JM AUC was 0.91 (0.89-0.93) and MELD-Na AUC was 0.84 (0.81-0.87). The JMs were significantly (p < .001) more accurate than MELD(-Na). After 90 days, we ranked patients for LT based on their MELD-Na and MELDNa-JM survival rates, showing that MELDNa-JM-prioritized patients had three times higher waiting list mortality.

Validation of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease sodium (MELD-Na) score in the Eurotransplant region.

The MELD score is used in the Eurotransplant (ET) region to allocate liver grafts. Hyponatremia in cirrhotic patients is an important predictor of death but is not incorporated in MELD. This study investigated the performance of the MELD-Na score for the ET region. All adult patients with chronic liver disease on the ET liver transplantation waiting list (WL) allocated through lab MELD scores were included. The MELD-corrected effect of serum sodium (Na) concentration at listing on the 90-day WL mortality was calculated using Cox regression. The MELD-Na performance was assessed with c-indices, calibration per decile and Brier scores. The reclassification from MELD to MELD-Na score was calculated to estimate the impact of MELD-Na-based allocation in the ET region. For the 5223 included patients, the risk of 90-day WL death was 2.9 times higher for hyponatremic patients. The MELD-Na had a significantly higher c-index of 0.847 (SE 0.007) and more accurate 90-day mortality prediction compared to MELD (Brier score of 0.059 vs 0.061). It was estimated that using MELD-Na would reduce WL mortality by 4.9%. The MELD-Na score yielded improved prediction of 90-day WL mortality in the ET region and using MELD-Na for liver allocation will very likely reduce WL mortality.

Yield of Computed Tomography (CT) Angiography in Patients with Acute Headache, Normal Neurological Examination, and Normal Non Contrast CT: A Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Patients with acute severe headache, normal neurological examination, and a normal noncontrast head computed tomography (NCCT) may still have subarachnoid hemorrhage, cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT), cervical arterial dissection, or reversible cerebral vasoconstriction syndrome (RCVS). Computed tomography angiography (CTA) is used increasingly in the emergency department for evaluating this, but its added value remains controversial. METHODS: We retrospectively collected data on the diagnostic yield of CTA in patients with acute severe headache, normal neurological examination, and normal NCCT who received additional CTA in the acute phase in 2 secondary referral centers for vascular neurology. We combined data of our patients with those from the literature and performed a meta-analysis. RESULTS: We included 88 patients from our hospital files and 641 patients after literature search. Of 729 patients 54 had a vascular abnormality on CTA (7.4%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.5%-9.3%). Abnormalities consisted of aneurysms (n = 42; 5.4%; 95% CI 3.8%-7.0%), CVT (n = 3, .5%), RCVS (n = 4, .5%), Moyamoya syndrome (n = 2, .3%), arterial dissection (n = 2, .3%), and ischemia (n = 1, .1%). Because most of the aneurysms were probably incidental findings, only 12 (1.6%) patients had a clear relation between the headache and CTA findings. The number needed to scan to find an abnormality was 14 overall, and 61 for an abnormality other than an aneurysm. CONCLUSION: Diagnostic yield of CTA in patients with acute headache, normal neurological examination, and normal NCCT is low, but because of the possible therapeutic consequences, its use might be justified in the emergency setting. Prospective studies confirming these results including cost-effectiveness analyses are needed.

Survival benefit from liver transplantation for patients with and without hepatocellular carcinoma.

Background & Aims: In the USA, inequal liver transplantation (LT) access exists between patients with and without hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Survival benefit considers survival without and with LT and could equalise LT access. We calculated bias-corrected LT survival benefit for patients with(out) HCC who underwent a transplant, based on longitudinal data in a recent United States cohort. Methods: Adult LT candidates with(out) HCC between 2010 and 2019 were included. Waitlist survival over time was contrasted to post-transplant survival, to estimate 5-year survival benefit from the moment of LT. Waitlist survival was modelled with a bias-corrected Cox regression, and post-transplant survival was estimated through Cox proportional hazards regression. Results: Mean HCC survival without LT was always lower than non-HCC waitlist survival. Below model for end-stage liver disease (sodium) (MELD(-Na)) 30, patients with HCC gained more life-years from LT than patients without HCC at the same MELD(-Na) score. Only patients without HCC below MELD(-Na) 9 had negative benefit. Most patients with HCC underwent a transplant below MELD(-Na) 14, and most patients without HCC underwent a transplant above MELD(-Na) 26. Liver function [MELD(-Na), albumin] was the main predictor of 5-year benefit. Therefore, during 5 years, most patients with HCC gained 0.12 to 1.96 years from LT, whereas most patients without HCC gained 2.48 to 3.45 years. Conclusions: On an individual level, performing a transplant in patients with HCC resulted in survival benefit. However, on a population level, benefit was indirectly decreased, as patients without HCC were likely to gain more survival owing to decreased liver function. For patients who underwent a transplant, a constructed online calculator estimates 5-year survival benefit given specific patient characteristics. Survival benefit scores could serve to equalise LT access. Impact and implications: Benefit is a comparison of the survival with and without liver transplantation, and it is important when deciding who should undergo a transplant. Liver function is most important when predicting possible benefit from transplantation. Patients with liver cancer die sooner on the waiting list than similar patients without liver cancer. However, patients with liver cancer more often have better liver function. Most patients without liver cancer derive more benefit from transplantation than patients with liver cancer.

Development and validation of a dynamic survival prediction model for patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is usually associated with a precipitating event and results in the failure of other organ systems and high short-term mortality. Current prediction models fail to adequately estimate prognosis and need for liver transplantation (LT) in ACLF. This study develops and validates a dynamic prediction model for patients with ACLF that uses both longitudinal and survival data. METHODS: Adult patients on the UNOS waitlist for LT between 11.01.2016-31.12.2019 were included. Repeated model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) measurements were jointly modelled with Cox survival analysis to develop the ACLF joint model (ACLF-JM). Model validation was carried out using separate testing data with area under curve (AUC) and prediction errors. An online ACLF-JM tool was created for clinical application. RESULTS: In total, 30,533 patients were included. ACLF grade 1 to 3 was present in 16.4%, 10.4% and 6.2% of patients, respectively. The ACLF-JM predicted survival significantly (p <0.001) better than the MELD-Na score, both at baseline and during follow-up. For 28- and 90-day predictions, ACLF-JM AUCs ranged between 0.840-0.871 and 0.833-875, respectively. Compared to MELD-Na, AUCs and prediction errors were improved by 23.1%-62.0% and 5%-37.6% respectively. Also, the ACLF-JM could have prioritized patients with relatively low MELD-Na scores but with a 4-fold higher rate of waiting list mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The ACLF-JM dynamically predicts outcome based on current and past disease severity. Prediction performance is excellent over time, even in patients with ACLF-3. Therefore, the ACLF-JM could be used as a clinical tool in the evaluation of prognosis and treatment in patients with ACLF. LAY SUMMARY: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) progresses rapidly and often leads to death. Liver transplantation is used as a treatment and the sickest patients are treated first. In this study, we develop a model that predicts survival in ACLF and we show that the newly developed model performs better than the currently used model for ranking patients on the liver transplant waiting list.

Prediction of vascular abnormalities on CT angiography in patients with acute headache.

OBJECTIVES: Patients with acute headache increasingly undergo CT-angiography (CTA) to evaluate underlying vascular causes. The aim of this study is to determine clinical and non-contrast CT (NCCT) criteria to select patients who might benefit from CTA. METHODS: We retrospectively included patients with acute headache who presented to the emergency department of an academic medical center and large regional teaching hospital and underwent NCCT and CTA. We identified factors that increased the probability of finding a vascular abnormality on CTA, performed multivariable regression analyses and determined discrimination with the c-statistic. RESULTS: A total of 384 patients underwent NCCT and CTA due to acute headache. NCCT was abnormal in 194 patients. Among these, we found abnormalities in 116 cases of which 99 aneurysms. In the remaining 190 with normal NCCT we found abnormalities in 12 cases; four unruptured aneurysms, three cerebral venous thrombosis', two reversible cerebral vasoconstriction syndromes, two cervical arterial dissections and one cerebellar infarction. In multivariable analysis abnormal NCCT, lowered consciousness and presentation within 6 hr of headache onset were independently associated with abnormal CTA. The c-statistic of abnormal NCCT alone was 0.80 (95% CI: 0.75-0.80), that also including the other two variables was 0.84 (95% CI: 0.80-0.88). If NCCT was normal no other factors could help identify patients at risk for abnormalities. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with acute headache abnormal NCCT is the strongest predictor of a vascular abnormality on CTA. If NCCT is normal no other predictors increase the probability of finding an abnormality on CTA and diagnostic yield is low.