Influence of institutional attributes on fulfillment of transfer and breeding recommendations in zoos and aquariums.

Compliance with Breeding and Transfer Plan (BTP) recommendations is important to promote long-term viability and meet the management goals of the Association of Zoos and Aquarium Species Survival Plans (SSPs®). However, individual institutions may fulfill recommendations at different rates, potentially compromising management efforts. We examined institution-level fulfillment rates of BTP recommendations (i.e, "Hold," "Send To," "Breed With," and "Do Not Breed"), and how rates differ based on institutional attributes related to resource levels, geographic location and climate, involvement in population management, and the SSPs in which institutions participated using conditional random forests and generalized linear mixed models. We analyzed 52,182 recommendations from 375 SSPs issued to 170 institutions in BTPs published from 2012 to 2019. Contrary to predictions, our results did not reveal large differences in fulfillment rates based on resources, geographic location, or climate variables at the institution level. We found modest patterns indicating that recommendation fulfillment for Hold and Do Not Breed recommendations in mammals was lower with longer interplanning periods, while fulfillment of Hold recommendations in birds increased with the average experience of individuals in SSP leadership roles. For herptiles, fulfillment of Send To recommendations was moderately higher in institutions with species spread across more herptile taxonomic advisory groups (the management unit for related species). Although our results suggest that overarching institutional factors do not have a strong influence on fulfillment rates at the scale of our study, more focused research within a specific temporal window, taxa, or suite of SSPs may reveal more informative patterns for population management.

Institutional networks in cooperative population management: Exploring patterns in transfer fulfillment.

Long-term sustainability of ex-situ animal populations is important for zoos and aquariums, but challenging due to inconsistent compliance with Breeding and Transfer Plans. Transfer recommendations are key to promoting the sustainability of ex-situ animal populations by ensuring cohesive populations, genetic diversity, and demographic stability, but factors affecting their fulfillment are poorly understood. We used a network analysis framework to analyze data compiled from PMCTrack from 2011 to 2019 for three taxonomic classes (mammals, birds, and reptiles/amphibians) within the Association of Zoos and Aquariums to assess factors affecting transfer recommendation fulfillment. Of 2505 compiled transfer recommendations spanning 330 Species Survival Plan® (SSP) Programs and 156 institutions, 1628 (65%) of them were fulfilled. Transfers were most likely to be fulfilled between institutions in close proximity with an established relationship. Annual operating budget, SSP Coordinator experience, number of staff, and diversity of Taxonomic Advisory Groups in which an institution participates also influenced transfer recommendations and/or fulfillment, but effects varied with taxonomic class. Our results suggest that current practices of focusing on transfers between institutions in close proximity are working to maximize transfer success and that institutions with larger budgets and some degree of taxonomic specialization play important roles in promoting success. Success could be further enhanced by building reciprocal transfer relationships and encouraging further development of relationships between smaller institutions and larger ones. These results emphasize the utility of examining animal transfers using a network approach, which accounts for attributes of both sending and receiving institutions, describing novel patterns otherwise left undetected.

Reasons for unfulfilled breeding and transfer recommendations in zoos and aquariums.

One of the primary tools for cooperatively managing animal populations within the Association of Zoos and Aquariums is through Breeding and Transfer Plan (BTP) recommendations. These recommendations consider population demographics, genetics, husbandry, and institutional needs and aim to improve population viability and long-term sustainability. However, fulfilling (i.e., completing) recommendations can be complicated by biological and logistical challenges. We examined institutional reasons for unfulfilled Breed With, Do Not Breed, Hold, and Send To recommendations collected in surveys in PMCTrack, software for tracking recommendation fulfillment, using descriptive and text-mining methods. Overall, 73 Animal Programs used PMCTrack to distribute 2335 surveys and accrued responses from 167 zoos and aquariums from 2007 to 2019, with a response rate of 56% (n = 1307). For Breed With recommendations, common reasons were related to an individual animal's status and a pair's breeding behavior; for all other recommendation types, reasons were often management or logistical factors. Most Breed With recommendations were attempted (≥55%) but did not result in detectable pregnancy/eggs or offspring, due to pair incompatibility or not enough time to successfully produce offspring. Hold and Do Not Breed recommendations were often unfulfilled because the BTP recommendation was replaced with an interim (i.e., updated) recommendation during the inter-planning period. Our results support the importance of some common population management practices, such as maintaining breeding pairs/groups for multiple BTPs to improve mate familiarity, examining husbandry mechanisms to promote breeding success, and making a concerted effort to adhere to planning timelines to facilitate transfers in alignment with breeding seasons.

The many faces of fear: a synthesis of the methodological variation in characterizing predation risk.

Predators affect prey by killing them directly (lethal effects) and by inducing costly antipredator behaviours in living prey (risk effects). Risk effects can strongly influence prey populations and cascade through trophic systems. A prerequisite for assessing risk effects is characterizing the spatiotemporal variation in predation risk. Risk effects research has experienced rapid growth in the last several decades. However, preliminary assessments of the resultant literature suggest that researchers characterize predation risk using a variety of techniques. The implications of this methodological variation for inference and comparability among studies have not been well recognized or formally synthesized. We couple a literature survey with a hierarchical framework, developed from established theory, to quantify the methodological variation in characterizing risk using carnivore-ungulate systems as a case study. Via this process, we documented 244 metrics of risk from 141 studies falling into at least 13 distinct subcategories within three broader categories. Both empirical and theoretical work suggest risk and its effects on prey constitute a complex, multi-dimensional process with expressions varying by spatiotemporal scale. Our survey suggests this multi-scale complexity is reflected in the literature as a whole but often underappreciated in any given study, which complicates comparability among studies and leads to an overemphasis on documenting the presence of risk effects rather than their mechanisms or scale of influence. We suggest risk metrics be placed in a more concrete conceptual framework to clarify inference surrounding risk effects and their cascading effects throughout ecosystems. We recommend studies (i) take a multi-scale approach to characterizing risk; (ii) explicitly consider 'true' predation risk (probability of predation per unit time); and (iii) use risk metrics that facilitate comparison among studies and the evaluation of multiple competing hypotheses. Addressing the pressing questions in risk effects research, including how, to what extent and on what scale they occur, requires leveraging the advantages of the many methods available to characterize risk while minimizing the confusion caused by variability in their application.