An economic evaluation of an intervention to increase demand for medical male circumcision among men aged 25-49 years in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Studies estimate that circumcising men between the ages of 20-30 years who have exhibited previous risky sexual behaviour could reduce overall HIV prevalence. Demand creation strategies for medical male circumcision (MMC) targeting men in this age group may significantly impact these prevalence rates. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study is to evaluate the cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit of an implementation science, pre-post study designed to increase the uptake of male circumcision for ages 25-49 at a fixed MMC clinic located in Gauteng Province, South Africa. METHODS: A health care provider perspective was utilised to collect all costs. Costs were compared between the standard care scenario of routine outreach strategies and a full intervention strategy. Cost-effectiveness was measured as cost per mature man enrolled and cost per mature man circumcised. A cost-benefit analysis was employed by using the Bernoulli model to estimate the cases of HIV averted due to medical male circumcision (MMC), and subsequently translated to averted medical costs. RESULTS: In the 2015 intervention, the cost of the intervention was $9445 for 722 men. The total HIV treatment costs averted due to the intervention were $542,491 from a public care model and $378,073 from a private care model. The benefit-cost ratio was 57.44 for the public care model and 40.03 for the private care model. The net savings of the intervention were $533,046 or $368,628 - depending on treatment in a public or private setting. CONCLUSIONS: The intervention was cost-effective compared to similar MMC demand interventions and led to statistically significant cost savings per individual enrolled.

Developing influenza and respiratory syncytial virus activity thresholds for syndromic surveillance in England.

Influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are common causes of respiratory tract infections and place a burden on health services each winter. Systems to describe the timing and intensity of such activity will improve the public health response and deployment of interventions to these pressures. Here we develop early warning and activity intensity thresholds for monitoring influenza and RSV using two novel data sources: general practitioner out-of-hours consultations (GP OOH) and telehealth calls (NHS 111). Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) thresholds were developed for winter 2017-2018. The NHS 111 cold/flu threshold was breached several weeks in advance of other systems. The NHS 111 RSV epidemic threshold was breached in week 41, in advance of RSV laboratory reporting. Combining the use of MEM thresholds with daily monitoring of NHS 111 and GP OOH syndromic surveillance systems provides the potential to alert to threshold breaches in real-time. An advantage of using thresholds across different health systems is the ability to capture a range of healthcare-seeking behaviour, which may reflect differences in disease severity. This study also provides a quantifiable measure of seasonal RSV activity, which contributes to our understanding of RSV activity in advance of the potential introduction of new RSV vaccines.

Assessing the severity of influenza: a role for longitudinal telephone surveys?

During the 2009 influenza pandemic, a rapid assessment of disease severity was a challenge as a significant proportion of cases did not seek medical care; care-seeking behaviour changed and the proportion asymptomatic was unknown. A random-digit-dialling telephone survey was undertaken during the 2011/12 winter season in England and Wales to address the feasibility of answering these questions. A proportional quota sampling strategy was employed based on gender, age group, geographical location, employment status and level of education. Households were recruited pre-season and re-contacted immediately following peak seasonal influenza activity. The pre-peak survey was undertaken in October 2011 with 1061 individuals recruited and the post-peak telephone survey in March 2012. Eight hundred and thirty-four of the 1061 (78.6%) participants were successfully re-contacted. Their demographic characteristics compared well to national census data. In total, 8.4% of participants self-reported an influenza-like illness (ILI) in the previous 2 weeks, with 3.2% conforming to the World Health Organization (WHO) ILI case definition. In total, 29.6% of the cases reported consulting their general practitioner. 54.1% of the 1061 participants agreed to be re-contacted about providing biological samples. A population-based cohort was successfully recruited and followed up. Longitudinal survey methodology provides a practical tool to assess disease severity during future pandemics.

Significant spike in excess mortality in England in winter 2014/15 - influenza the likely culprit.

Significant increases in excess all-cause mortality, particularly in the elderly, were observed during the winter of 2014/15 in England. With influenza A(H3N2) the dominant circulating influenza A subtype, this paper determines the contribution of influenza to this excess controlling for weather. A standardised multivariable Poisson regression model was employed with weekly all-cause deaths the dependent variable for the period 2008-2015. Adjusting for extreme temperature, a total of 26 542 (95% CI 25 301-27 804) deaths in 65+ and 1942 (95% CI 1834-2052) in 15-64-year-olds were associated with influenza from week 40, 2014 to week 20, 2015. This is compatible with the circulation of influenza A(H3N2). It is the largest estimated number of influenza-related deaths in England since prior to 2008/09. The findings highlight the potential health impact of influenza and the important role of the annual influenza vaccination programme that is required to protect the population including the elderly, who are vulnerable to a severe outcome.

Efficacy of a web-based cognitive rehabilitation intervention for adult cancer survivors: A pilot study.

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of a web-based cognitive rehabilitation intervention in survivors of adult-onset cancer and a sample of non-cancer community dwelling adults. Fifty-one participants were recruited and allocated to a cancer intervention group, a non-cancer intervention group, or a non-cancer waitlist group. Intervention groups completed a 4-week online program and all participants were assessed at baseline, post-intervention and 3-month follow-up. The primary outcome measure was subjective cognitive functioning. Secondary outcome measures included objective cognitive functioning, distress, quality of life (QoL), illness perception and program satisfaction. Results from the study found significant improvements on self-report measures of cognitive functioning in both treatment groups, as well as improvements on objective measures assessing attention and executive functioning. No intervention effects were observed for distress, QoL or illness perception. High participant satisfaction was observed with 75% of participants in the cancer group reporting being either "satisfied" or "very satisfied" with the program compared to 87% in the non-cancer treatment group. Initial evaluation of the program suggests that the web-based cognitive rehabilitation intervention shows potential for improving subjective and objective cognitive functioning in cancer survivors and community dwelling adults.

New onset diabetes after kidney transplantation is associated with increased mortality-A retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Clinical outcomes in individuals with new onset diabetes after transplantation (NODAT) and the optimal treatment for this complication are poorly characterized. This study was intended to better define these issues. METHODS: Patients who underwent kidney transplantation and did not have diabetes prior to transplantation were included in the study. Clinical outcomes were compared between those who developed NODAT and those who did not. In those who developed NODAT, oral therapy was compared with insulin based therapy. RESULTS: A total of 266 kidney transplant recipients were included, of which 71 (27%) developed NODAT during the time of the follow-up. Using Cox multivariate analysis adjusted for age and gender, hazard ratio for overall mortality among patients with NODAT versus those without NODAT was 2.69 (95% CI 1.04-7.01). Among patients who developed NODAT, 29 patients (40%) were treated with an insulin-based regimen. At the end of follow-up, no difference was found in mean HbA1c, and therapy regimen was not associated with greater mortality. CONCLUSIONS: New onset diabetes in kidney transplanted patients is associated with increased mortality compared with kidney transplanted patients without NODAT.

Ralstonia infection in cystic fibrosis.

This study aimed to determine prevalence of Ralstonia spp. in cystic fibrosis patients, look for any evidence of cross infection and to describe clinical outcomes for patients infected by Ralstonia spp. Prevalence of Ralstonia spp. was calculated annually from 2008 to 2016. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis was performed on ⩾1 sample from patients with an isolation of Ralstonia spp. between 2008 and 2016. A prospective, longitudinal observational study of adult patients was performed with 12 months follow-up from recruitment. Prevalence of Ralstonia spp. rose from 0·6% in 2008 to 2·4% in 2016. In total 12 out of 14 (86%) patients with ⩾1 isolation of Ralstonia spp. developed chronic infection. A pair and a group of three unrelated patients with epidemiological connections shared strains of Ralstonia mannitolilytica. Lung function of Ralstonia spp. infected patients was moderately to severely impaired. Prevalence of Ralstonia spp. is low but increasing. The risk of a patient developing chronic Ralstonia spp. infection following first acquisition is high and cross-infection may be possible. Whether Ralstonia spp. infection causes increased pulmonary exacerbation frequency and lung function decline needs to be evaluated in larger prospective studies.

Evaluation of an automated milk leukocyte differential test and the California Mastitis Test for detecting intramammary infection in early- and late-lactation quarters and cows.

Study objectives were to (1) describe the diagnostic test characteristics of an automated milk leukocyte differential (MLD) test and the California Mastitis Test (CMT) to identify intramammary infection (IMI) in early- (EL) and late-lactation (LL) quarters and cows when using 3 different approaches to define IMI from milk culture, and (2) describe the repeatability of MLD test results at both the quarter and cow level. Eighty-six EL and 90 LL Holstein cows were sampled from 3 Midwest herds. Quarter milk samples were collected for a cow-side CMT test, milk culture, and MLD testing. Quarter IMI status was defined by 3 methods: culture of a single milk sample, culture of duplicate samples with parallel interpretation, and culture of duplicate samples with serial interpretation. The MLD testing was completed in duplicate within 8 h of sample collection; MLD results (positive/negative) were reported at each possible threshold setting (1-18 for EL; 1-12 for LL) and CMT results (positive/negative) were reported at each possible cut-points (trace, ≥1, ≥2, or 3). We created 2 × 2 tables to compare MLD and CMT results to milk culture, at both the quarter and cow level, when using each of 3 different definitions of IMI as the referent test. Paired MLD test results were compared with evaluate repeatability. The MLD test showed excellent repeatability. The choice of definition of IMI from milk culture had minor effects on estimates of MLD and CMT test characteristics. For EL samples, when interpreting MLD and CMT results at the quarter level, and regardless of the referent test used, both tests had low sensitivity (MLD = 11.7-39.1%; CMT = 0-52.2%) but good to very good specificity (MLD = 82.1-95.2%; CMT = 68.1-100%), depending on the cut-point used. Sensitivity improved slightly if diagnosis was interpreted at the cow level (MLD = 25.6-56.4%; CMT = 0-72.2%), though specificity generally declined (MLD = 61.8-100%; CMT = 25.0-100%) depending on the cut-point used. For LL samples, when interpreted at the quarter level, both tests had variable sensitivity (MLD = 46.6-84.8%; CMT = 9.6-72.7%) and variable specificity (MLD = 59.2-79.8%; CMT = 52.5-97.3%), depending on the cut-point used. Test sensitivity improved if interpreted at the cow level (MLD = 59.6-86.4%; CMT = 19.1-86.4%), though specificity declined (MLD = 32.4-56.8%; CMT = 14.3-92.3%). Producers considering adopting either test for LL or EL screening programs will need to carefully consider the goals and priorities of the program (e.g., whether to prioritize test sensitivity or specificity) when deciding on the level of interpretation (quarter or cow) and when selecting the optimal cut-point for interpreting test results. Additional validation studies and large randomized field studies will be needed to evaluate the effect of adopting either test in selective dry cow therapy or fresh cow screening programs on udder health, antibiotic use, and economics.

Characterizing effects of feed restriction and glucagon-like peptide 2 administration on biomarkers of inflammation and intestinal morphology.

Inadequate feed consumption reduces intestinal barrier function in both ruminants and monogastrics. Objectives were to characterize how progressive feed restriction (FR) affects inflammation, metabolism, and intestinal morphology, and to investigate if glucagon-like peptide 2 (GLP2) administration influences the aforementioned responses. Twenty-eight Holstein cows (157 ± 9 d in milk) were enrolled in 2 experimental periods. Period 1 [5 d of ad libitum (AL) feed intake] served as baseline for period 2 (5 d), during which cows received 1 of 6 treatments: (1) 100% of AL feed intake (AL100; n = 3), (2) 80% of AL feed intake (n = 5), (3) 60% of AL feed intake (n = 5), (4) 40% of AL feed intake (AL40; n = 5), (5) 40% of AL feed intake + GLP2 administration (AL40G; 75 µg/kg of BW s.c. 2×/d; n = 5), or (6) 20% of AL feed intake (n = 5). As the magnitude of FR increased, body weight and milk yield decreased linearly. Blood urea nitrogen and insulin decreased, whereas nonesterified fatty acids and liver triglyceride content increased linearly with progressive FR. Circulating endotoxin, lipopolysaccharide binding protein, haptoglobin, serum amyloid A, and lymphocytes increased or tended to increase linearly with advancing FR. Circulating haptoglobin decreased (76%) and serum amyloid A tended to decrease (57%) in AL40G relative to AL40 cows. Cows in AL100, AL40, and AL40G treatments were euthanized to evaluate intestinal histology. Jejunum villus width, crypt depth, and goblet cell area, as well as ileum villus height, crypt depth, and goblet cell area, were reduced (36, 14, 52, 22, 28, and 25%, respectively) in AL40 cows compared with AL100 controls. Ileum cellular proliferation tended to be decreased (14%) in AL40 versus AL100 cows. Relative to AL40, AL40G cows had improved jejunum and ileum morphology, including increased villus height (46 and 51%), villus height to crypt depth ratio (38 and 35%), mucosal surface area (30 and 27%), cellular proliferation (43 and 36%), and goblet cell area (59 and 41%). Colon goblet cell area was also increased (48%) in AL40G relative to AL40 cows. In summary, progressive FR increased circulating markers of inflammation, which we speculate is due to increased intestinal permeability as demonstrated by changes in intestinal architecture. Furthermore, GLP2 improved intestinal morphology and ameliorated circulating markers of inflammation. Consequently, FR is a viable model to study consequences of intestinal barrier dysfunction and administering GLP2 appears to be an effective mitigation strategy to improve gut health.

Intentionally induced intestinal barrier dysfunction causes inflammation, affects metabolism, and reduces productivity in lactating Holstein cows.

Study objectives were to evaluate the effects of intentionally reduced intestinal barrier function on productivity, metabolism, and inflammatory indices in otherwise healthy dairy cows. Fourteen lactating Holstein cows (parity 2.6 ± 0.3; 117 ± 18 d in milk) were enrolled in 2 experimental periods. Period 1 (5 d) served as the baseline for period 2 (7 d), during which cows received 1 of 2 i.v. treatments twice per day: sterile saline or a gamma-secretase inhibitor (GSI; 1.5 mg/kg of body weight). Gamma-secretase inhibitors reduce intestinal barrier function by inhibiting crypt cell differentiation into absorptive enterocytes. During period 2, control cows receiving sterile saline were pair-fed (PF) to the GSI-treated cows, and all cows were killed at the end of period 2. Administering GSI increased goblet cell area 218, 70, and 28% in jejunum, ileum, and colon, respectively. In the jejunum, GSI-treated cows had increased crypt depth and reduced villus height, villus height-to-crypt depth ratio, cell proliferation, and mucosal surface area. Plasma lipopolysaccharide binding protein increased with time, and tended to be increased 42% in GSI-treated cows relative to PF controls on d 5 to 7. Circulating haptoglobin and serum amyloid A concentrations increased (585- and 4.4-fold, respectively) similarly in both treatments. Administering GSI progressively reduced dry matter intake (66%) and, by design, the pattern and magnitude of decreased nutrient intake was similar in PF controls. A similar progressive decrease (42%) in milk yield occurred in both treatments, but we observed no treatment effects on milk components. Cows treated with GSI tended to have increased plasma insulin (68%) and decreased circulating nonesterified fatty acids (29%) compared with PF cows. For both treatments, plasma glucose decreased with time while ß-hydroxybutyrate progressively increased. Liver triglycerides increased 221% from period 1 to sacrifice in both treatments. No differences were detected in liver weight, liver moisture, or body weight change. Intentionally compromising intestinal barrier function caused inflammation, altered metabolism, and markedly reduced feed intake and milk yield. Further, we demonstrated that progressive feed reduction appeared to cause leaky gut and inflammation.

Illness absenteeism rates in primary and secondary schools in 2013-2014 in England: was there any impact of vaccinating children of primary-school age against influenza?

A phased introduction of routine influenza vaccination of healthy children was recommended in the UK in 2012, with the aim of protecting both vaccinated children and the wider population through reducing transmission. In the first year of the programme in 2013-2014, 4- to 11-year-olds were targeted in pilot areas across England. This study assesses if this was associated with school absenteeism, an important societal burden of influenza. During the spring 2014 term when influenza predominantly circulated, the proportion of absence sessions due to illness was compared between vaccination pilot and non-pilot areas for primary schools (to measure overall impact) and secondary schools (to measure indirect impact). A linear multilevel regression model was applied, adjusting for clustering within schools and potential school-level confounders, including deprivation, past absenteeism, and ethnicity. Low levels of influenza activity were reported in the community in 2013-2014. Primary schools in pilot areas had a significantly adjusted decrease in illness absenteeism of 0·05% relative to non-pilot schools; equivalent to an average of 4 days per school. In secondary schools, there was no significant indirect impact of being located in a pilot area on illness absenteeism. These insights can be used in conjunction with routine healthcare surveillance data to evaluate the full benefits of such a programme.

Emergency department syndromic surveillance providing early warning of seasonal respiratory activity in England.

Seasonal respiratory infections place an increased burden on health services annually. We used a sentinel emergency department syndromic surveillance system to understand the factors driving respiratory attendances at emergency departments (EDs) in England. Trends in different respiratory indicators were observed to peak at different points during winter, with further variation observed in the distribution of attendances by age. Multiple linear regression analysis revealed acute respiratory infection and bronchitis/bronchiolitis ED attendances in patients aged 1-4 years were particularly sensitive indicators for increasing respiratory syncytial virus activity. Using near real-time surveillance of respiratory ED attendances may provide early warning of increased winter pressures in EDs, particularly driven by seasonal pathogens. This surveillance may provide additional intelligence about different categories of attendance, highlighting pressures in particular age groups, thereby aiding planning and preparation to respond to acute changes in EDs, and thus the health service in general.

Cytoreductive surgery (CRS) and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) in pediatric ovarian tumors: a novel treatment approach.

PURPOSE: Cytoreductive surgery (CRS) and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) have been used in adults with ovarian carcinoma proving overall survival benefit in randomized trials, but measured in months. Diffuse peritoneal disease from pediatric type ovarian tumors is rare. We applied CRS and HIPEC to pediatric girls with diffuse peritoneal disease as part of a clinical trial. METHODS: In all patients complete cytoreduction was followed by HIPEC using 100 mg/m2 of cisplatin for 90 min in a closed technique. All received neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Patients with disease outside of the abdominal cavity were excluded. RESULTS: Of 101 pediatric CRS and HIPEC operations, 8 had ovarian primary tumors and multifocal peritoneal disease. There were three yolk sac tumors (germ cell, mixed teratoma), one Sertoli­Leydig, one PNET of the ovary, one choriocarcinoma, one juvenile granulosa cell tumor and one adenocarcinoma. Age ranged 4­18 years. Three of the 8 (37 %) recurred and died. The remaining 63 % are disease free 2­6 years post HIPEC. Overall survival and relapse-free survival in this cohort was 64 and 62 %, respectively [CI 0.64 (0.34, 1); 0.62 (0.37, 1)]. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first report of CRS and HIPEC in pediatric ovarian tumors. HIPEC may be effective in pediatric-type ovarian tumors. More study is needed in a larger cohort.

Influence of CYP2D6 and CYP2C19 genotypes on venlafaxine metabolic ratios and stereoselective metabolism in forensic autopsy cases.

We investigated whether polymorphisms in the CYP2D6 and CYP2C19 genes influence the metabolic ratios and enantiomeric S/R ratios of venlafaxine (VEN) and its metabolites O-desmethylvenlafaxine (ODV), N-desmethylvenlafaxine (NDV) and N,O-didesmethylvenlafaxine (DDV) in blood from forensic autopsy cases. In all, 94 postmortem cases found positive for VEN during toxicological screening were included. The CYP2D6 genotype was shown to significantly influence the ODV/VEN (P=0.003), DDV/NDV (P=0.010) and DDV/ODV (P=0.034) ratios. The DDV/ODV (P=0.013) and DDV/VEN (P=0.021) ratios were significantly influenced by the CYP2C19 genotype. The S/R ratios of VEN were significantly influenced by both CYP2D6 and CYP2C19 genotypes. CYP2D6 poor metabolizers (PMs) had lower S/R VEN ratios and CYP2C19 PMs had high S/R ratios of VEN in comparison. Our results show that the CYP2D6 genotype influences the O-demethylation whereas CYP2C19 influences the N-demethylation of VEN and its metabolites. In addition, we show a stereoselective metabolism where CYP2D6 favours the R-enantiomer whereas CYP2C19 favours the S-enantiomer.

Polymorphisms in the ABCB1 gene and effect on outcome and toxicity in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

The membrane transporter P-glycoprotein, encoded by the ABCB1 gene, influences the pharmacokinetics of anti-cancer drugs. We hypothesized that variants of ABCB1 affect outcome and toxicity in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). We studied 522 Danish children with ALL, 93% of all those eligible. Risk of relapse was increased 2.9-fold for patients with the 1199GA variant versus 1199GG (P=0.001), and reduced 61% and 40%, respectively, for patients with the 3435CT or 3435TT variants versus 3435CC (overall P=0.02). The degree of bone marrow toxicity during doxorubicin, vincristine and prednisolone induction therapy was more prominent in patients with 3435TT variant versus 3435CT/3435CC (P=0.01/P<0.0001). We observed more liver toxicity after high-dose methotrexate in patients with 3435CC variant versus 3435CT/TT (P=0.03). In conclusion, there is a statistically significant association between ABCB1 polymorphisms, efficacy and toxicity in the treatment of ALL, and ABCB1 1199G>A may be a new possible predictive marker for outcome in childhood ALL.

Impact of influenza vaccination on respiratory illness rates in children attending private boarding schools in England, 2013-2014: a cohort study.

Several private boarding schools in England have established universal influenza vaccination programmes for their pupils. We evaluated the impact of these programmes on the burden of respiratory illnesses in boarders. Between November 2013 and May 2014, age-specific respiratory disease incidence rates in boarders were compared between schools offering and not offering influenza vaccine to healthy boarders. We adjusted for age, sex, school size and week using negative binomial regression. Forty-three schools comprising 14 776 boarders participated. Almost all boarders (99%) were aged 11-17 years. Nineteen (44%) schools vaccinated healthy boarders against influenza, with a mean uptake of 48·5% (range 14·2-88·5%). Over the study period, 1468 respiratory illnesses were reported in boarders (5·66/1000 boarder-weeks); of these, 33 were influenza-like illnesses (ILIs, 0·26/1000 boarder-weeks) in vaccinating schools and 95 were ILIs (0·74/1000 boarder-weeks) in non-vaccinating schools. The impact of vaccinating healthy boarders was a 54% reduction in ILI in all boarders [rate ratio (RR) 0·46, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0·28-0·76]. Disease rates were also reduced for upper respiratory tract infections (RR 0·72, 95% CI 0·61-0·85) and chest infections (RR 0·18, 95% CI 0·09-0·36). These findings demonstrate a significant impact of influenza vaccination on ILI and other clinical endpoints in secondary-school boarders. Additional research is needed to investigate the impact of influenza vaccination in non-boarding secondary-school settings.

Harmonizing influenza primary-care surveillance in the United Kingdom: piloting two methods to assess the timing and intensity of the seasonal epidemic across several general practice-based surveillance schemes.

General Practitioner consultation rates for influenza-like illness (ILI) are monitored through several geographically distinct schemes in the UK, providing early warning to government and health services of community circulation and intensity of activity each winter. Following on from the 2009 pandemic, there has been a harmonization initiative to allow comparison across the distinct existing surveillance schemes each season. The moving epidemic method (MEM), proposed by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control for standardizing reporting of ILI rates, was piloted in 2011/12 and 2012/13 along with the previously proposed UK method of empirical percentiles. The MEM resulted in thresholds that were lower than traditional thresholds but more appropriate as indicators of the start of influenza virus circulation. The intensity of the influenza season assessed with the MEM was similar to that reported through the percentile approach. The MEM pre-epidemic threshold has now been adopted for reporting by each country of the UK. Further work will continue to assess intensity of activity and apply standardized methods to other influenza-related data sources.

Detection of varying influenza circulation within England in 2012/13: informing antiviral prescription and public health response.

BACKGROUND: Subnational variation of 2009 pandemic influenza activity in England has been reported; however, little work has been published on this topic for seasonal influenza. If variation is present, this knowledge may assist with both identifying the onset of influenza epidemics, informing community antiviral prescription and local health planning. METHODS: An end-of-season analysis of influenza surveillance systems (acute respiratory outbreaks, primary care consultations, virological testing, influenza-confirmed secondary care admissions and excess all-cause mortality) was undertaken at national and subnational levels for 2012/13 when influenza B and A(H3N2) dominated. RESULTS: National community antiviral prescription was recommended in Week 51 following national threshold exceedance. However, this was preceded up to 2 weeks by subnational influenza activity in 2/9 regions in England. Regional variation in circulation of influenza subtypes was observed and severe influenza surveillance data sources were able to monitor the subnational impact. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence of virological activity in two or more regions above a threshold indicated the onset of the 2012/13 season. Subnational thresholds should be determined and evaluated in order to improve timeliness of the national antiviral alert. During the season, outputs should be reported at levels that can inform local public health responses and variation considered when retrospectively evaluating the impact of interventions.

Excess mortality among the elderly in European countries, December 2014 to February 2015.

Since December 2014 and up to February 2015, the weekly number of excess deaths from all-causes among individuals ≥ 65 years of age in 14 European countries have been significantly higher than in the four previous winter seasons. The rise in unspecified excess mortality coincides with increased proportion of influenza detection in the European influenza surveillance schemes with a main predominance of influenza A (H3N2) viruses seen throughout Europe in the current season, though cold snaps and other respiratory infections may also have had an effect.

Estimating vaccine effectiveness against severe influenza in England and Scotland 2011/2012: applying the screening method to data from intensive care surveillance systems.

Methods for estimating vaccine effectiveness (VE) against severe influenza are not well established. We used the screening method to estimate VE against influenza resulting in intensive care unit (ICU) admission in England and Scotland in 2011/2012. We extracted data on confirmed influenza ICU cases from severe influenza surveillance systems, and obtained their 2011/2012 trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) status from primary care. We compared case vaccine uptake with population vaccine uptake obtained from routine monitoring systems, adjusting for age group, specific risk group, region and week. Of 60 influenza ICU cases reported, vaccination status was available for 56 (93%). Adjusted VE against ICU admission for those aged ≥ 65 years was -10% [95% confidence interval (CI) -207 to 60], consistent with evidence of poor protection from the 2011/2012 TIV in 2011/2012. Adjusted VE for those aged <65 years in risk groups was -296% (95% CI -930 to -52), suggesting significant residual confounding using the screening method in those subject to selective vaccination.