Achilles' heel: elderly COVID-19 vaccination policy in China.

BACKGROUND: Despite high overall COVID-19 vaccine coverage, the continuously low elderly vaccination rate in mainland China remains a dangerous threat as the country shifts away from its zero-Covid policy. This retrospective study uses the Multiple Streams Framework to examine how macro-level factors may explain poor elderly vaccination outcomes. METHODS: We performed a thematic analysis of qualitative data obtained from 95 official press conferences from October 20, 2020, to February 27, 2023, vaccination-related policy documents, and media coverage, using both inductive and deductive coding approaches. RESULTS: Our findings suggest that in the problem stream, elderly vaccination was not a "focusing event" during the initial vaccine rollout, resulting in delayed outreach to this population. Additionally, ideologically driven complacency and discrepancies in top-down implementation undermined elderly vaccination in the political stream. In the policy stream, precautious and ambiguous statements, inconsistent policy content, radical shifting media messages, and less age-friendly digital technologies also affected elderly vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: The poor convergence of the three streams led the elderly to be the Achilles' heel of China's COVID-19 containment strategy. Future studies should focus on priority identification, adoption of enforcement measures, and timely and effective policy dissemination. The empirical lessons from China can inform and optimize elderly vaccination policy design and implementation in the post-pandemic era.

Effectiveness of international border control measures during the COVID-19 pandemic: a narrative synthesis of published systematic reviews.

The effectiveness of international border control measures during the COVID-19 pandemic is not well understood. Using a narrative synthesis approach to published systematic reviews, we synthesized the evidence from both modelling and observational studies on the effects of border control measures on domestic transmission of the virus. We find that symptomatic screening measures were not particularly effective, but that diagnostic-based screening methods were more effective at identifying infected travellers. Targeted travel restrictions levied against travellers from Wuhan were likely temporarily effective but insufficient to stop the exportation of the virus to the rest of the world. Quarantine of inbound travellers was also likely effective at reducing transmission, but only with relatively long quarantine periods, and came with important economic and social effects. There is little evidence that most travel restrictions, including border closure and those implemented to stop the introduction of new variants of concern, were particularly effective. Border control measures played an important role in former elimination locations but only when coupled with strong domestic public health measures. In future outbreaks, if border control measures are to be adopted, they should be seen as part of a broader strategy that includes other non-pharmaceutical interventions. This article is part of the theme issue 'The effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the COVID-19 pandemic: the evidence'.

Do referrals improve the representation of women in mobile phone surveys?

Random digit dial surveys with mobile phones risk under-representation of women. To address this, we compare the characteristics of women recruited directly with those of women recruited through referrals from male household members. The referral process improves representation of vulnerable groups, such as young women, the asset poor, and those living in areas with low connectivity. Among mobile phone users, we show a referral (rather than a direct dial) protocol includes more nationally representative proportions of women with these attributes. While seeking intra-household referrals may improve representation, we show that it does so at a higher cost.

The Unintended Consequences of Information Provision: The World Health Organization and Border Restrictions during COVID-19.

Why do some international agreements fail to achieve their goals? Rather than states' engaging in cheap talk, evasion, or shallow commitments, the World Health Organization's (WHO) International Health Regulations (IHR)-the agreement governing states' and WHO's response to global health emergencies-point to the unintended consequences of information provision. The IHR have a dual goal of providing public health protection from health threats while minimizing unnecessary interference in international traffic. As such, during major outbreaks WHO provides information about spread and severity, as well as guidance about how states should respond, primarily regarding border policies. During COVID-19, border restrictions such as entry restrictions, flight suspensions, and border closures have been commonplace even though WHO recommended against such policies when it declared the outbreak a public health emergency in January 2020. Building on findings from the 2014 Ebola outbreak, we argue that without raising the cost of disregarding (or the benefits of following) recommendations against border restrictions, information from WHO about outbreak spread and severity leads states to impose border restrictions inconsistent with WHO's guidance. Using new data from COVID-19, we show that WHO's public health emergency declaration and pandemic announcement are associated with increases in the number of states imposing border restrictions.

Resumen: ¿Por qué motivo algunos acuerdos internacionales no logran alcanzar sus objetivos? El Reglamento Sanitario Internacional (RSI) de la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS)­el acuerdo que rige la respuesta de los Estados y la OMS a las emergencias sanitarias mundiales­señala como motivo las consecuencias imprevistas del suministro de información, en lugar del discurso trivial, la evasión o los compromisos superficiales por parte de los Estados. El RSI tiene como doble objetivo proteger la salud pública de las amenazas sanitarias y minimizar las interferencias innecesarias en el tráfico internacional. Como tal, durante brotes importantes, la OMS proporciona información sobre la propagación y la gravedad, así como orientación sobre cómo deben responder los Estados, principalmente en lo que respecta a las políticas fronterizas. Sin embargo, durante la COVID-19, las restricciones fronterizas, tales como las restricciones de entrada, las suspensiones de vuelos y los cierres de fronteras, han sido habituales, a pesar de que la OMS recomendó no aplicar estas políticas cuando declaró el brote epidémico como emergencia de salud pública en enero de 2020. Basándonos en los resultados del brote de ébola de 2014, argumentamos que, sin aumentar el coste de ignorar (o los beneficios de seguir) las recomendaciones contra las restricciones fronterizas, la información de la OMS sobre la propagación y la gravedad del brote lleva a los Estados a imponer restricciones fronterizas que no son coherentes con las orientaciones de la OMS. Utilizando nuevos datos de la COVID-19, mostramos que la declaración de emergencia de salud pública de la OMS y el anuncio de pandemia están asociados con el aumento del número de estados que imponen restricciones fronterizas.

Résumé: Pourquoi certains accords internationaux n'atteignent-ils pas leurs objectifs? À l'inverse d'États se perdant dans des discussions superficielles, des pirouettes ou des engagements insignifiants, le Règlement sanitaire international (RSI) de l'Organisation mondiale de la santé (OMS), à savoir l'accord encadrant la réponse des États et de l'OMS aux situations d'urgence sanitaire internationales, évoque les conséquences imprévues de la transmission d'informations. Le RSI a un objectif double : protéger les populations contre les menaces pour la santé publique, tout en minimisant les interactions non nécessaires dans le trafic international. Par conséquent, lors des grandes épidémies, l'OMS fournit des informations relatives à la transmission et à la gravité des maladies, ainsi que des conseils quant aux mesures que les États doivent mettre en œuvre, principalement en ce qui concerne les politiques aux frontières. Pourtant, durant la pandémie de COVID-19, les restrictions aux frontières, telles que les limitations des entrées, les suspensions de vols et les fermetures, ont été monnaie courante, et ce bien que l'OMS ait déconseillé de telles pratiques lorsqu'elle a déclaré que l'épidémie constituait une urgence sanitaire, en janvier 2020. S'appuyant sur des travaux portant sur l'épidémie d'Ebola en 2014, nous soutenons, sans exagérer l'impact d'une non-conformité (ou les avantages d'une conformité) aux recommandations de l'OMS en matière de restrictions aux frontières, que les informations transmises par l'organisation en matière de transmission et de gravité de la maladie ont conduit les États à imposer des restrictions aux frontières non conformes auxdites recommandations. Grâce à de nouvelles données relatives au COVID-19, nous montrons que la déclaration d'urgence sanitaire et l'annonce de la pandémie par l'OMS se sont accompagnées d'une augmentation du nombre d'États imposant des restrictions aux frontières.

Understanding the societal factors of vaccine acceptance and hesitancy: evidence from Hong Kong.

OBJECTIVES: Vaccination is considered to be an important public health strategy for controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. Besides subjective evaluations of the vaccine and the health threat, societal factors have been seen as crucial to vaccination decisions. Based on a socioecological perspective, this study examines the role of societal factors in COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in Hong Kong. STUDY DESIGN AND METHOD: An online survey was fielded between 25 and 28 June 2021, collecting 2753 complete responses. Multinomial logistic regression was conducted to examine how subjective evaluations of the vaccine (summarised by the 5C model - Confidence, Collective responsibility, Constraints, Complacency and Calculation), threat perception, interpersonal influences and institutional trust contribute to explaining three types of decision - acceptant (vaccinated, scheduled or indicated 'Yes'), hesitant (unvaccinated and indicated 'Maybe' on intention) and resistant (unvaccinated and indicated 'No'). RESULTS: A total of 43.2%, 21.7% and 35.1% of respondents were acceptant, hesitant and resistant. Although the 5C model remained useful in explaining vaccination decisions, respondents were heavily influenced by the decisions of their family, although they were less influenced by friends. Second, respondents tended to accept the vaccine when they had a weaker perception that the act is supportive of the government and were less resistant if they had stronger institutional trust. CONCLUSION: Under the low-incidence and low-trust environment such as Hong Kong, vaccination decisions are heavily influenced by family's decision and the perception of vaccination as socially and politically desirable. Our findings highlight the importance of a nuanced conception of interpersonal and political influence towards vaccine acceptance/hesitancy.

Addressing missing values in routine health information system data: an evaluation of imputation methods using data from the Democratic Republic of the Congo during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Poor data quality is limiting the use of data sourced from routine health information systems (RHIS), especially in low- and middle-income countries. An important component of this data quality issue comes from missing values, where health facilities, for a variety of reasons, fail to report to the central system. METHODS: Using data from the health management information system in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the advent of COVID-19 pandemic as an illustrative case study, we implemented seven commonly used imputation methods and evaluated their performance in terms of minimizing bias in imputed values and parameter estimates generated through subsequent analytical techniques, namely segmented regression, which is widely used in interrupted time series studies, and pre-post-comparisons through paired Wilcoxon rank-sum tests. We also examined the performance of these imputation methods under different missing mechanisms and tested their stability to changes in the data. RESULTS: For regression analyses, there were no substantial differences found in the coefficient estimates generated from all methods except mean imputation and exclusion and interpolation when the data contained less than 20% missing values. However, as the missing proportion grew, k-NN started to produce biased estimates. Machine learning algorithms, i.e. missForest and k-NN, were also found to lack robustness to small changes in the data or consecutive missingness. On the other hand, multiple imputation methods generated the overall most unbiased estimates and were the most robust to all changes in data. They also produced smaller standard errors than single imputations. For pre-post-comparisons, all methods produced p values less than 0.01, regardless of the amount of missingness introduced, suggesting low sensitivity of Wilcoxon rank-sum tests to the imputation method used. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend the use of multiple imputation in addressing missing values in RHIS datasets and appropriate handling of data structure to minimize imputation standard errors. In cases where necessary computing resources are unavailable for multiple imputation, one may consider seasonal decomposition as the next best method. Mean imputation and exclusion and interpolation, however, always produced biased and misleading results in the subsequent analyses, and thus, their use in the handling of missing values should be discouraged.

Is the lack of smartphone data skewing wealth indices in low-income settings?

BACKGROUND: Smartphones have rapidly become an important marker of wealth in low- and middle-income countries, but international household surveys do not regularly gather data on smartphone ownership and these data are rarely used to calculate wealth indices. METHODS: We developed a cross-sectional survey module delivered to 3028 households in rural northwest Burkina Faso to measure the effects of this absence. Wealth indices were calculated using both principal components analysis (PCA) and polychoric PCA for a base model using only ownership of any cell phone, and a full model using data on smartphone ownership, the number of cell phones, and the purchase of mobile data. Four outcomes (household expenditure, education level, and prevalence of frailty and diabetes) were used to evaluate changes in the composition of wealth index quintiles using ordinary least squares and logistic regressions and Wald tests. RESULTS: Households that own smartphones have higher monthly expenditures and own a greater quantity and quality of household assets. Expenditure and education levels are significantly higher at the fifth (richest) socioeconomic status (SES) quintile of full model wealth indices as compared to base models. Similarly, diabetes prevalence is significantly higher at the fifth SES quintile using PCA wealth index full models, but this is not observed for frailty prevalence, which is more prevalent among lower SES households. These effects are not present when using polychoric PCA, suggesting that this method provides additional robustness to missing asset data to measure underlying latent SES by proxy. CONCLUSIONS: The lack of smartphone data can skew PCA-based wealth index performance in a low-income context for the top of the socioeconomic spectrum. While some PCA variants may be robust to the omission of smartphone ownership, eliciting smartphone ownership data in household surveys is likely to substantially improve the validity and utility of wealth estimates.

Managing borders during public health emergencies of international concern: a proposed typology of cross-border health measures.

BACKGROUND: The near universal adoption of cross-border health measures during the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide has prompted significant debate about their effectiveness and compliance with international law. The number of measures used, and the range of measures applied, have far exceeded previous public health emergencies of international concern. However, efforts to advance research, policy and practice to support their effective use has been hindered by a lack of clear and consistent definition. RESULTS: Based on a review of existing datasets for cross-border health measures, such as the Oxford Coronavirus Government Response Tracker and World Health Organization Public Health and Social Measures, along with analysis of secondary and grey literature, we propose six categories to define measures more clearly and consistently - policy goal, type of movement (travel and trade), adopted by public or private sector, level of jurisdiction applied, stage of journey, and degree of restrictiveness. These categories are then brought together into a proposed typology that can support research with generalizable findings and comparative analyses across jurisdictions. Addressing the current gaps in evidence about travel measures, including how different jurisdictions apply such measures with varying effects, in turn, enhances the potential for evidence-informed decision-making based on fuller understanding of policy trade-offs and externalities. Finally, through the adoption of standardized terminology and creation of an agreed evidentiary base recognized across jurisdictions, the typology can support efforts to strengthen coordinated global responses to outbreaks and inform future efforts to revise the WHO International Health Regulations (2005). CONCLUSIONS: The widespread use of cross-border health measures during the COVID-19 pandemic has prompted significant reflection on available evidence, previous practice and existing legal frameworks. The typology put forth in this paper aims to provide a starting point for strengthening research, policy and practice.

A thematic analysis of Instagram's gendered memes on COVID-19.

We investigate the gendered use of Instagram memes on COVID-19 using a mixed-analysis approach. We find that memes referencing women are mostly related to community support and healthcare, which often express gratitude for frontline workers, while the majority of memes on men refer to news and promotion as well as suffering due to the high death rates and other financial hardships. As for sexual and gender minorities, memes mostly mention community support similar to the case of the memes referencing women. We argue that internet memes offer insight into ongoing trends in the public's perceptions of pandemics, and they should be further examined because they often communicate vital information on gender groups and public health.

The G20 and development assistance for health: historical trends and crucial questions to inform a new era.

One of the most important gatherings of the world's economic leaders, the G20 Summit and ministerial meetings, takes place in June, 2019. The Summit presents a valuable opportunity to reflect on the provision and receipt of development assistance for health (DAH) and the role the G20 can have in shaping the future of health financing. The participants at the G20 Summit (ie, the world's largest providers of DAH, emerging donors, and DAH recipients) and this Summit's particular focus on global health and the Sustainable Development Goals offers a unique forum to consider the changing DAH context and its pressing questions. In this Health Policy perspective, we examined trends in DAH and its evolution over time, with a particular focus on G20 countries; pointed to persistent and emerging challenges for discussion at the G20 Summit; and highlighted key questions for G20 leaders to address to put the future of DAH on course to meet the expansive Sustainable Development Goals. Key questions include how to best focus DAH for equitable health gains, how to deliver DAH to strengthen health systems, and how to support domestic resource mobilisation and transformative partnerships for sustainable impact. These issues are discussed in the context of the growing effects of climate change, demographic and epidemiological transitions, and a global political shift towards increasing prioritisation of national interests. Although not all these questions are new, novel approaches to allocating DAH that prioritise equity, efficiency, and sustainability, particularly through domestic resource use and mobilisation are needed. Wrestling with difficult questions in a changing landscape is essential to develop a DAH financing system capable of supporting and sustaining crucial global health goals.

Using routine health information data for research in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Routine health information systems (RHISs) support resource allocation and management decisions at all levels of the health system, as well as strategy development and policy-making in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Although RHIS data represent a rich source of information, such data are currently underused for research purposes, largely due to concerns over data quality. Given that substantial investments have been made in strengthening RHISs in LMICs in recent years, and that there is a growing demand for more real-time data from researchers, this systematic review builds upon the existing literature to summarize the extent to which RHIS data have been used in peer-reviewed research publications. METHODS: Using terms 'routine health information system', 'health information system', or 'health management information system' and a list of LMICs, four electronic peer-review literature databases were searched from inception to February 202,019: PubMed, Scopus, EMBASE, and EconLit. Articles were assessed for inclusion based on pre-determined eligibility criteria and study characteristics were extracted from included articles using a piloted data extraction form. RESULTS: We identified 132 studies that met our inclusion criteria, originating in 37 different countries. Overall, the majority of the studies identified were from Sub-Saharan Africa and were published within the last 5 years. Malaria and maternal health were the most commonly studied health conditions, although a number of other health conditions and health services were also explored. CONCLUSIONS: Our study identified an increasing use of RHIS data for research purposes, with many studies applying rigorous study designs and analytic methods to advance program evaluation, monitoring and assessing services, and epidemiological studies in LMICs. RHIS data represent an underused source of data and should be made more available and further embraced by the research community in LMIC health systems.

Measuring and explaining changing patterns of inequality in institutional deliveries between urban and rural women in Ghana: a decomposition analysis.

BACKGROUND: Despite recent progress in improving access to maternal health services, the utilization of these services remains inequitable among women in developing countries, and rural women are particularly disadvantaged. This study sought to measure i) disparities in the rates of institutional births between rural and urban women in Ghana, ii) the extent to which existing disparities are due to differences in the distribution of the determinants of institutional delivery between rural and urban women, and iii) the extent to which existing disparities are due to discrimination in resource availability. METHODS: Using Demographic and Health Survey data from 2003, 2008, and 2014, this study decomposed inequalities in institutional delivery rates among urban and rural Ghanaian woman using the Oaxaca, the Blinder, and related decompositions for non-linear models. The determinants of the observed inequalities were also analyzed. RESULTS: Institutional delivery rates in urban areas exceeded those of rural areas by 32.4 percentage points due to differences in distribution of the determinants of institutional delivery between the two areas. The main determinants driving the observed disparities were wealth, which contributed to about 16.1% of the gap, followed by education level, and number of antenatal visits. CONCLUSION: Relative to urban women, rural women have lower rates of institutional deliveries due primarily to lower levels of wealth, which results in financial barriers in accessing maternal health services. Economic empowerment of rural women is crucial in order to close the gap in institutional delivery between urban and rural women.

Evaluating Quality of Contraceptive Counseling: An Analysis of the Method Information Index.

The Method Information Index (MII) is calculated from contraceptive users' responses to questions regarding counseling content-whether they were informed about methods other than the one they received, told about method-specific side effects, and advised what to do if they experienced side effects. The MII is increasingly reported in national surveys and used to track program performance, but little is known about its properties. Using additional questions, we assessed the consistency between responses and the method received in a prospective, multicountry study. We employed two definitions of consistency: (1) presence of any concordant response, and (2) absence of discordant responses. Consistency was high when asking whether users were informed about other methods and what to do about side effects. Responses were least consistent when asking whether side effects were mentioned. Adjusting for inconsistency, scores were up to 50 percent and 30 percent lower in Pakistan and Uganda, respectively, compared to unadjusted MII scores. Additional questions facilitated better understanding of counseling quality.

Aligning Funding and Need for Family Planning: A Diagnostic Methodology.

With limited international resources for family planning, donors must decide how to allocate their funds to different countries. How can a donor for family planning decide whether countries are adequately prioritized for funding? This article proposes an ordinal ranking framework to identify under-prioritized countries by rank-ordering countries by their need for family planning and separately rank-ordering them by their development assistance for family planning. Countries for which the rank of the need for family planning is lower than the rank of its funding are deemed under-prioritized. We implement this diagnostic methodology to identify under-prioritized countries that have a higher need but lower development assistance for family planning. This approach indicates whether a country is receiving less compared to other countries with similar levels of need.

Donor funding health policy and systems research in low- and middle-income countries: how much, from where and to whom.

BACKGROUND: The need for sufficient and reliable funding to support health policy and systems research (HPSR) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) has been widely recognised. Currently, most resources to support such activities come from traditional development assistance for health (DAH) donors; however, few studies have examined the levels, trends, sources and national recipients of such support - a gap this research seeks to address. METHOD: Using OECD's Creditor Reporting System database, we classified donor funding commitments using a keyword analysis of the project-level descriptions of donor supported projects to estimate total funding available for HPSR-related activities annually from bilateral and multilateral donors, as well as the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, to LMICs over the period 2000-2014. RESULTS: Total commitments to HPSR-related activities have greatly increased since 2000, peaked in 2010, and have held steady since 2011. Over the entire study period (2000-2014), donors committed a total of $4 billion in funding for HPSR-related activities or an average of $266 million a year. Over the last 5 years (2010-2014), donors committed an average of $434 million a year to HPSR-related activities. Funding for HPSR is heavily concentrated, with more than 93% coming from just 10 donors and only represents approximately 2% of all donor funding for health and population projects. Countries in the sub-Saharan African region are the major recipients of HPSR funding. CONCLUSION: Funding for HPSR-related activities has generally increased over the study period; however, donor support to such activities represents only a small proportion of total DAH and has not grown in recent years. Donors should consider increasing the proportion of funds they allocate to support HPSR activities in order to further build the evidence base on how to build stronger health systems.

Child diarrhoea and nutritional status in rural Rwanda: a cross-sectional study to explore contributing environmental and demographic factors.

OBJECTIVE: To explore associations of environmental and demographic factors with diarrhoea and nutritional status among children in Rusizi district, Rwanda. METHODS: We obtained cross-sectional data from 8847 households in May-August 2013 from a baseline survey conducted for an evaluation of an integrated health intervention. We collected data on diarrhoea, water quality, and environmental and demographic factors from households with children <5, and anthropometry from children <2. We conducted log-binomial regression using diarrhoea, stunting and wasting as dependent variables. RESULTS: Among children <5, 8.7% reported diarrhoea in the previous 7 days. Among children <2, stunting prevalence was 34.9% and wasting prevalence was 2.1%. Drinking water treatment (any method) was inversely associated with caregiver-reported diarrhoea in the previous 7 days (PR = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.68-0.91). Improved source of drinking water (PR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.73-0.87), appropriate treatment of drinking water (PR = 0.88, 95% CI: 0.80-0.96), improved sanitation facility (PR = 0.90, 95% CI: 0.82-0.97), and complete structure (having walls, floor and roof) of the sanitation facility (PR = 0.65, 95% CI: 0.50-0.84) were inversely associated with stunting. None of the exposure variables were associated with wasting. A microbiological indicator of water quality was not associated with diarrhoea or stunting. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that in Rusizi district, appropriate treatment of drinking water may be an important factor in diarrhoea in children <5, while improved source and appropriate treatment of drinking water as well as improved type and structure of sanitation facility may be important for linear growth in children <2. We did not detect an association with water quality.

China's role as a global health donor in Africa: what can we learn from studying under reported resource flows?

BACKGROUND: There is a growing recognition of China's role as a global health donor, in particular in Africa, but there have been few systematic studies of the level, destination, trends, or composition of these development finance flows or a comparison of China's engagement as a donor with that of more traditional global health donors. METHODS: Using newly released data from AidData on China's development finance activities in Africa, developed to track under reported resource flows, we identified 255 health, population, water, and sanitation (HPWS) projects from 2000-2012, which we descriptively analyze by activity sector, recipient country, project type, and planned activity. We compare China's activities to projects from traditional donors using data from the OECD's Development Assistance Committee (DAC) Creditor Reporting System. RESULTS: Since 2000, China increased the number of HPWS projects it supported in Africa and health has increased as a development priority for China. China's contributions are large, ranking it among the top 10 bilateral global health donors to Africa. Over 50% of the HPWS projects target infrastructure, 40% target human resource development, and the provision of equipment and drugs is also common. Malaria is an important disease priority but HIV is not. We find little evidence that China targets health aid preferentially to natural resource rich countries. CONCLUSIONS: China is an important global health donor to Africa but contrasts with traditional DAC donors through China's focus on health system inputs and on malaria. Although better data are needed, particularly through more transparent aid data reporting across ministries and agencies, China's approach to South-South cooperation represents an important and distinct source of financial assistance for health in Africa.