Risk Prediction of New Intracranial Aneurysms at Follow-Up Screening in People With a Positive Family History.

BACKGROUND: In first-degree relatives of patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH), the risk of an intracranial aneurysm can be predicted at initial screening but not at follow-up screening. We aimed to develop a model for predicting the probability of a new intracranial aneurysm after initial screening in people with a positive family history of aSAH. METHODS: In a prospective study, we obtained data from follow-up screening for aneurysms of 499 subjects with ≥2 affected first-degree relatives. Screening took place at the University Medical Center Utrecht, the Netherlands, and the University Hospital of Nantes, France. We studied associations between potential predictors and the presence of aneurysms using Cox regression analysis and the predictive performance at 5, 10, and 15 years after initial screening using C statistics and calibration plots, while correcting for overfitting. RESULTS: In 5050 person-years of follow-up, intracranial aneurysms were found in 52 subjects. The risk of aneurysm at 5 years was 2% to 12%, at 10 years, 4% to 28%, and at 15 years, 7% to 40%. Predictors were female sex, history of intracranial aneurysms/aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage, and older age. The sex, previous history of intracranial aneurysm/aSAH, older age score had a C statistic of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.61-0.78) at 5 years, 0.71 (95% CI, 0.64-0.78) at 10 years, and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.63-0.76) at 15 years and showed good calibration. CONCLUSIONS: The sex, previous history of intracranial aneurysm/aSAH, older age score provides risk estimates for finding new intracranial aneurysms at 5, 10, and 15 years after initial screening, based on 3 easily retrievable predictors; this can help to define a personalized screening strategy after initial screening in people with a positive family history for aSAH.

External Validation of Risk Prediction Models to Improve Selection of Patients for Carotid Endarterectomy.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The net benefit of carotid endarterectomy (CEA) is determined partly by the risk of procedural stroke or death. Current guidelines recommend CEA if 30-day risks are <6% for symptomatic stenosis and <3% for asymptomatic stenosis. We aimed to identify prediction models for procedural stroke or death after CEA and to externally validate these models in a large registry of patients from the United States. METHODS: We conducted a systematic search in MEDLINE and EMBASE for prediction models of procedural outcomes after CEA. We validated these models with data from patients who underwent CEA in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (2011-2017). We assessed discrimination using C statistics and calibration graphically. We determined the number of patients with predicted risks that exceeded recommended thresholds of procedural risks to perform CEA. RESULTS: After screening 788 reports, 15 studies describing 17 prediction models were included. Nine were developed in populations including both asymptomatic and symptomatic patients, 2 in symptomatic and 5 in asymptomatic populations. In the external validation cohort of 26 293 patients who underwent CEA, 702 (2.7%) developed a stroke or died within 30-days. C statistics varied between 0.52 and 0.64 using all patients, between 0.51 and 0.59 using symptomatic patients, and between 0.49 to 0.58 using asymptomatic patients. The Ontario Carotid Endarterectomy Registry model that included symptomatic status, diabetes, heart failure, and contralateral occlusion as predictors, had C statistic of 0.64 and the best concordance between predicted and observed risks. This model identified 4.5% of symptomatic and 2.1% of asymptomatic patients with procedural risks that exceeded recommended thresholds. CONCLUSIONS: Of the 17 externally validated prediction models, the Ontario Carotid Endarterectomy Registry risk model had most reliable predictions of procedural stroke or death after CEA and can inform patients about procedural hazards and help focus CEA toward patients who would benefit most from it.

Number of Affected Relatives, Age, Smoking, and Hypertension Prediction Score for Intracranial Aneurysms in Persons With a Family History for Subarachnoid Hemorrhage.

BACKGROUND: Persons with a positive family history of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage are at increased risk of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage. Preventive screening for intracranial aneurysms (IAs) in these persons is cost-effective but not very efficient. We aimed to develop and externally validate a model for predicting the probability of an IA at first screening in persons with a positive family history of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage. METHODS: For model development, we studied results from initial screening for IA in 660 prospectively collected persons with ≥2 affected first-degree relatives screened at the University Medical Center Utrecht. For validation, we studied results from 258 prospectively collected persons screened in the University Hospital of Nantes. We assessed potential predictors of IA presence in multivariable logistic regression analysis. Predictive performance was assessed with the C statistic and a calibration plot and corrected for overfitting. RESULTS: IA were present in 79 (12%) persons in the development cohort. Predictors were number of affected relatives, age, smoking, and hypertension (NASH). The NASH score had a C statistic of 0.68 (95% CI, 0.62-0.74) and showed good calibration in the development data. Predicted probabilities of an IA at first screening varied from 5% in persons aged 20 to 30 years with two affected relatives, without hypertension who never smoked, up to 36% in persons aged 60 to 70 years with ≥3 affected relatives, who have hypertension and smoke(d). In the external validation data IA were present in 67 (26%) persons, the model had a C statistic of 0.64 (95% CI, 0.57-0.71) and slightly underestimated IAs risk. CONCLUSIONS: For persons with ≥2 affected first-degree relatives, the NASH score improves current predictions and provides risk estimates for an IA at first screening between 5% and 36% based on 4 easily retrievable predictors. With the information such persons can now make a better informed decision about whether or not to undergo preventive screening.

Sex Difference and Rupture Rate of Intracranial Aneurysms: An Individual Patient Data Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: In previous studies, women had a higher risk of rupture of intracranial aneurysms than men, but female sex was not an independent risk factor. This may be explained by a higher prevalence of patient- or aneurysm-related risk factors for rupture in women than in men or by insufficient power of previous studies. We assessed sex differences in rupture rate taking into account other patient- and aneurysm-related risk factors for aneurysmal rupture. METHODS: We searched Embase and Pubmed for articles published until December 1, 2020. Cohorts with available individual patient data were included in our meta-analysis. We compared rupture rates of women versus men using a Cox proportional hazard regression model adjusted for the PHASES score (Population, Hypertension, Age, Size of Aneurysm, Earlier Subarachnoid Hemorrhage From Another Aneurysm, Site of Aneurysm), smoking, and a positive family history of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage. RESULTS: We pooled individual patient data from 9 cohorts totaling 9940 patients (6555 women, 66%) with 12 193 unruptured intracranial aneurysms, and 24 357 person-years follow-up. Rupture occurred in 163 women (rupture rate 1.04%/person-years [95% CI, 0.89-1.21]) and 63 men (rupture rate 0.74%/person-years [95% CI, 0.58-0.94]). Women were older (61.9 versus 59.5 years), were less often smokers (20% versus 44%), more often had internal carotid artery aneurysms (24% versus 17%), and larger sized aneurysms (≥7 mm, 24% versus 23%) than men. The unadjusted women-to-men hazard ratio was 1.43 (95% CI, 1.07-1.93) and the adjusted women/men ratio was 1.39 (95% CI, 1.02-1.90). CONCLUSIONS: Women have a higher risk of aneurysmal rupture than men and this sex difference is not explained by differences in patient- and aneurysm-related risk factors for aneurysmal rupture. Future studies should focus on the factors explaining the higher risk of aneurysmal rupture in women.

Balancing Benefits and Risks of Long-Term Antiplatelet Therapy in Noncardioembolic Transient Ischemic Attack or Stroke.

Background and Purpose: Lifelong treatment with antiplatelet drugs is recommended following a transient ischemic attack or ischemic stroke. Bleeding complications may offset the benefit of antiplatelet drugs in patients at increased risk of bleeding and low risk of recurrent ischemic events. We aimed to investigate the net benefit of antiplatelet treatment according to an individuals' bleeding risk. Methods: We pooled individual patient data from 6 randomized clinical trials (CAPRIE [Clopidogrel Versus Aspirin in Patients at Risk of Ischemic Events], ESPS-2 [European Stroke Prevention Study-2], MATCH [Management of Atherothrombosis With Clopidogrel in High-Risk Patients], CHARISMA [Clopidogrel for High Atherothrombotic Risk and Ischemic Stabilization, Management, and Avoidance], ESPRIT [European/Australasian Stroke Prevention in Reversible Ischemia Trial], and PRoFESS [Prevention Regimen for Effectively Avoiding Second Strokes]) investigating antiplatelet therapy in the subacute or chronic phase after noncardioembolic transient ischemic attack or stroke. Patients were stratified into quintiles according to their predicted risk of major bleeding with the S2TOP-BLEED score. The annual risk of major bleeding and recurrent ischemic events was assessed per quintile for 4 scenarios: (1) aspirin monotherapy, (2) aspirin-clopidogrel versus aspirin or clopidogrel monotherapy, (3) aspirin-dipyridamole versus clopidogrel, and (4) aspirin versus clopidogrel. Net benefit was calculated for the second, third, and fourth scenario. Results: Thirty seven thousand eighty-seven patients were included in the analyses. Both risk of major bleeding and recurrent ischemic events increased over quintiles of predicted bleeding risk, but risk of ischemic events was consistently higher (eg, from 0.7%/y (bottom quintile) to 3.2%/y (top quintile) for major bleeding on aspirin and from 2.5%/y to 10.2%/y for risk of ischemic events on aspirin). Treatment with aspirin-clopidogrel led to more major bleedings (0.9%­1.7% per year), than reduction in ischemic events (ranging from 0.4% to 0.9/1.0% per year) across all quintiles. There was no clear preference for either aspirin-dipyridamole or clopidogrel according to baseline bleeding risk. Conclusions: Among patients with a transient ischemic attack or ischemic stroke included in clinical trials of antiplatelet therapy, the risk of recurrent ischemic events and of major bleeding increase in parallel. Antiplatelet treatment cannot be individualized solely based on bleeding risk assessment.

Absence of Consistent Sex Differences in Outcomes From Symptomatic Carotid Endarterectomy and Stenting Randomized Trials.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: CREST (Carotid Revascularization Endarterectomy Versus Stenting Trial) reported a higher periprocedural risk for any stroke, death, or myocardial infarction for women randomized to carotid artery stenting (CAS) compared with women randomized to carotid endarterectomy (CEA). No difference in risk by treatment was detected for women relative to men in the 4-year primary outcome. We aimed to conduct a pooled analysis among symptomatic patients in large randomized trials to provide more precise estimates of sex differences in the CAS-to-CEA risk for any stroke or death during the 120-day periprocedural period and ipsilateral stroke thereafter. METHODS: Data from the Carotid Stenosis Trialists' Collaboration included outcomes from symptomatic patients in EVA-3S (Endarterectomy Versus Angioplasty in Patients With Symptomatic Severe Carotid Stenosis), SPACE (Stent-Protected Angioplasty Versus Carotid Endarterectomy in Symptomatic Patients), ICSS (International Carotid Stenting Study), and CREST. The primary outcome was any stroke or death within 120 days after randomization and ipsilateral stroke thereafter. Event rates and relative risks were estimated using Poisson regression; effect modification by sex was assessed with a sex-by-treatment-by-trial interaction term, with significant interaction defined a priori as P≤0.10. RESULTS: Over a median 2.7 years of follow-up, 433 outcomes occurred in 3317 men and 1437 women. The CAS-to-CEA relative risk of the primary outcome was significantly lower for women compared with men in 1 trial, nominally lower in another, and nominally higher in the other two. The sex-by-treatment-by-trial interaction term was significant (P=0.065), indicating heterogeneity among trials. Contributors to this heterogeneity are primarily differences in periprocedural period. When the trials are nevertheless pooled, there were no significant sex differences in risk in any follow-up period. CONCLUSIONS: There were significant differences between trials in the magnitude of sex differences in treatment effect (CAS-to-CEA relative risk), indicating pooling data from these trials to estimate sex differences might not be valid. Whether sex is acting as an effect modifier of the CAS-to-CEA treatment effect in symptomatic patients remains uncertain. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT00190398 (EVA-3S) and NCT00004732 (CREST). URL: https://www.isrctn.com; Unique identifier: ISRCTN57874028 (SPACE) and ISRCTN25337470 (ICSS).

Dementia risk in the general population: large-scale external validation of prediction models in the AGES-Reykjavik study.

We aimed to evaluate the external performance of prediction models for all-cause dementia or AD in the general population, which can aid selection of high-risk individuals for clinical trials and prevention. We identified 17 out of 36 eligible published prognostic models for external validation in the population-based AGES-Reykjavik Study. Predictive performance was assessed with c statistics and calibration plots. All five models with a c statistic > .75 (.76-.81) contained cognitive testing as a predictor, while all models with lower c statistics (.67-.75) did not. Calibration ranged from good to poor across all models, including systematic risk overestimation or overestimation for particularly the highest risk group. Models that overestimate risk may be acceptable for exclusion purposes, but lack the ability to accurately identify individuals at higher dementia risk. Both updating existing models or developing new models aimed at identifying high-risk individuals, as well as more external validation studies of dementia prediction models are warranted.

Prediction of long-term recurrent ischemic stroke: the added value of non-contrast CT, CT perfusion, and CT angiography.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to evaluate whether the addition of brain CT imaging data to a model incorporating clinical risk factors improves prediction of ischemic stroke recurrence over 5 years of follow-up. METHODS: A total of 638 patients with ischemic stroke from three centers were selected from the Dutch acute stroke study (DUST). CT-derived candidate predictors included findings on non-contrast CT, CT perfusion, and CT angiography. Five-year follow-up data were extracted from medical records. We developed a multivariable Cox regression model containing clinical predictors and an extended model including CT-derived predictors by applying backward elimination. We calculated net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement indices. Discrimination was evaluated with the optimism-corrected c-statistic and calibration with a calibration plot. RESULTS: During 5 years of follow-up, 56 patients (9%) had a recurrence. The c-statistic of the clinical model, which contained male sex, history of hyperlipidemia, and history of stroke or transient ischemic attack, was 0.61. Compared with the clinical model, the extended model, which contained previous cerebral infarcts on non-contrast CT and Alberta Stroke Program Early CT score greater than 7 on mean transit time maps derived from CT perfusion, had higher discriminative performance (c-statistic 0.65, P = 0.01). Inclusion of these CT variables led to a significant improvement in reclassification measures, by using the net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement indices. CONCLUSION: Data from CT imaging significantly improved the discriminatory performance and reclassification in predicting ischemic stroke recurrence beyond a model incorporating clinical risk factors only.

Comparison of Rupture Risk of Intracranial Aneurysms Between Familial and Sporadic Patients.

Background and Purpose A much higher rupture rate for patients with familial intracranial aneurysms (IA) compared with patients with sporadic IA has been reported in a study with highly selected familial aneurysms using sporadic patients from other populations a controls. We aimed to validate these findings in a large independent series of Dutch patients with familial and sporadic IA. Methods We conducted a secondary analysis of our institutional cohort of patients who were screened for IAs between 1994 and 2016. We assessed the incidence of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage between familial, defined as ≥2 affected first-degree relatives with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage and unruptured IA (UIA), and sporadic patients with UIA with Cox regression analysis. Results We identified 62 familial IA patients with 91 UIA and 412 sporadic IA patients with 542 UIA. Despite familial aneurysms being smaller and more often located at low risk sites than sporadic IA, 3 familial patients had aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (0.77 ruptures per 100 aneurysm-years [95% CI, 0.20-2.09]) compared with 7 sporadic patients (0.51 ruptures per 100 aneurysm-years [95% CI, 0.22-1.01]). As compared to sporadic UIA, familial UIA seems to have a 3-fold higher risk of rupture (hazard ratio, 2.9 [95% CI, 0.6-14]). Conclusions Our results suggest a slightly increased risk of aneurysm rupture for familial compared with sporadic IA, although we were not able to demonstrate this with statistical significance. However, the rupture risk seems less strongly increased than found in a previous study. Based on our results, we recommend to treat familial UIA more aggressively.

Nonfocal Transient Neurological Attacks Are Associated With Cerebral Small Vessel Disease.

Background and Purpose- Nonfocal transient neurological attacks (TNAs), such as unsteadiness, bilateral weakness, or confusion, are associated with an increased risk of stroke and dementia. Cerebral ischemia plays a role in their pathogenesis, but the precise mechanisms are unknown. We hypothesized that cerebral small vessel disease is involved in the pathogenesis of TNAs and assessed the relation between TNAs and manifestations of cerebral small vessel disease on magnetic resonance imaging. Methods- We included participants from the HBC (Heart-Brain Connection) study. In this study, hemodynamic and cardiovascular contributions to cognitive impairment have been studied in patients with heart failure, carotid artery occlusion, or possible vascular cognitive impairment, as well as in a reference group. We excluded participants with a history of stroke or transient ischemic attacks. The occurrence of the following 8 TNAs was assessed with a standardized interview: unconsciousness, confusion, amnesia, unsteadiness, bilateral leg weakness, blurred vision, nonrotatory dizziness, and paresthesias. The occurrence of TNAs was related to the presence of lacunes or white matter hyperintensities (Fazekas score, ≥2; early confluent or confluent lesions) in logistic regression analysis, adjusted for age, sex, and hypertension. Results- Of 304 participants (60% men; mean age, 67±9 years), 63 participants (21%) experienced ≥1 TNAs. Lacunes and early confluent or confluent white matter hyperintensities were more common in participants with TNAs than in participants without TNAs (35% versus 20%; adjusted odds ratio, 2.32 [95% CI, 1.22-4.40] and 48% versus 27%; adjusted odds ratio, 2.65 [95% CI, 1.44-4.90], respectively). Conclusions- In our study, TNAs are associated with the presence of lacunes and early confluent or confluent white matter hyperintensities of presumed vascular origin, which indicates that cerebral small vessel disease might play a role in the pathogenesis of TNAs.

Frequent Cognitive Impairment in Patients With Disorders Along the Heart-Brain Axis.

Background and Purpose- Patients with cardiovascular disease are at increased risk for cognitive decline. We studied the occurrence and profile of cognitive impairment in 3 patient groups as exemplar conditions of hemodynamic disturbances at different levels of the heart-brain axis, including patients with heart failure (HF), carotid occlusive disease (COD), and patients with cognitive complaints and vascular brain injury on magnetic resonance imaging (possible vascular cognitive impairment [VCI]). Methods- In 555 participants (160 HF, 107 COD, 160 possible VCI, 128 reference participants; 68±9 years; 36% F; Mini-Mental State Examination 28±2), we assessed cognitive functioning with a comprehensive test battery. Test scores were transformed into z-scores. Compound z-scores were constructed for: memory, language, attention/psychomotor speed, executive functioning, and global cognitive functioning. We rated cognitive domains as impaired when z-score≤-1.5. Based on the number of impaired domains, patients were classified as cognitively normal, minor, or major cognitive impairment. We used general linear models and χ2 tests to compare cognitive functioning between patient groups and the reference group. Results- Age, sex, and education adjusted global cognitive functioning z-score was lower in patients with COD (ß [SE]=-0.46 [0.10], P<0.001) and possible VCI (ß [SE]=-0.80 [0.09], P<0.001) compared with reference participants. On all domains, z-scores were lower in patients with COD and possible VCI compared with reference participants. Patients with HF had lower z-scores on attention/speed and language compared with reference participants. Cognitive impairment was observed in 18% of HF, 36% of COD, and 45% possible VCI. There was no difference in profile of impaired cognitive domains between patient groups. Memory and attention-psychomotor speed were most commonly affected, followed by executive functioning and language. Conclusions- A substantial part of patients with HF and COD had cognitive impairment, which warrants vigilance for the occurrence of cognitive impairment. These results underline the importance of an integrative approach in medicine in patients presenting with disorders in the heart-brain axis.

Outcome Assessment by Central Adjudicators Versus Site Investigators in Stroke Trials: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Background and Purpose- In randomized stroke trials, central adjudication of a trial's primary outcome is regularly implemented. However, recent evidence questions the importance of central adjudication in randomized trials. The aim of this review was to compare outcomes assessed by central adjudicators with outcomes assessed by site investigators. Methods- We included randomized stroke trials where the primary outcome had undergone an assessment by site investigators and central adjudicators. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL (Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials), Web of Science, PsycINFO, and Google Scholar for eligible studies. We extracted information about the adjudication process as well as the treatment effect for the primary outcome, assessed both by central adjudicators and by site investigators. We calculated the ratio of these treatment effects so that a ratio of these treatment effects >1 indicated that central adjudication resulted in a more beneficial treatment effect than assessment by the site investigator. A random-effects meta-analysis model was fitted to estimate a pooled effect. Results- Fifteen trials, comprising 69 560 participants, were included. The primary outcomes included were stroke (8/15, 53%), a composite event including stroke (6/15, 40%) and functional outcome after stroke measured on the modified Rankin Scale (1/15, 7%). The majority of site investigators were blind to treatment allocation (9/15, 60%). On average, there was no difference in treatment effect estimates based on data from central adjudicators and site investigators (pooled ratio of these treatment effects=1.02; 95% CI, [0.95-1.09]). Conclusions- We found no evidence that central adjudication of the primary outcome in stroke trials had any impact on trial conclusions. This suggests that potential advantages of central adjudication may not outweigh cost and time disadvantages in stroke studies if the primary purpose of adjudication is to ensure validity of trial findings.

Antiplatelet Therapy After Noncardioembolic Stroke.

Background and Purpose- We assessed the efficacy and safety of antiplatelet agents after noncardioembolic stroke or transient ischemic attack and examined how these vary according to patients' demographic and clinical characteristics. Methods- We did a network meta-analysis (NMA) of data from 6 randomized trials of the effects of commonly prescribed antiplatelet agents in the long-term (≥3 months) secondary prevention of noncardioembolic stroke or transient ischemic attack. Individual patient data from 43 112 patients were pooled and reanalyzed. Main outcomes were serious vascular events (nonfatal stroke, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or vascular death), major bleeding, and net clinical benefit (serious vascular event or major bleeding). Subgroup analyses were done according to age, sex, ethnicity, hypertension, qualifying diagnosis, type of vessel involved (large versus small vessel disease), and time from qualifying event to randomization. Results- Aspirin/dipyridamole combination (RRNMA-adj, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.74-0.94) significantly reduced the risk of vascular events compared with aspirin, as did clopidogrel (RRNMA-adj, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.78-0.98), and aspirin/clopidogrel combination (RRNMA-adj, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.71-0.96). Clopidogrel caused significantly less major bleeding and intracranial hemorrhage than aspirin, aspirin/dipyridamole combination, and aspirin/clopidogrel combination. Aspirin/clopidogrel combination caused significantly more major bleeding than aspirin, aspirin/dipyridamole combination, and clopidogrel. Net clinical benefit was similar for clopidogrel and aspirin/dipyridamole combination (RRNMA-adj, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.93-1.05). Subgroup analyses showed no heterogeneity of treatment effectiveness across prespecified subgroups. The excess risk of major bleeding associated with aspirin/clopidogrel combination compared with clopidogrel alone was higher in patients aged <65 years than it was in patients ≥65 years (RRNMA-adj, 3.9 versus 1.7). Conclusions- Results favor clopidogrel and aspirin/dipyridamole combination for long-term secondary prevention after noncardioembolic stroke or transient ischemic attack, regardless of patient characteristics. Aspirin/clopidogrel combination was associated with a significantly higher risk of major bleeding compared with other antiplatelet regimens.

Safety of Carotid Revascularization in Patients With a History of Coronary Heart Disease.

Background and Purpose- We investigated whether procedural stroke or death risk of carotid artery stenting (CAS) compared with carotid endarterectomy (CEA) is different in patients with and without history of coronary heart disease (CHD) and whether the treatment-specific impact of age differs. Methods- We combined individual patient data of 4754 patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis from 4 randomized trials (EVA-3S [Endarterectomy Versus Angioplasty in Patients With Symptomatic Severe Carotid Stenosis], SPACE [Stent-Protected Angioplasty Versus Carotid Endarterectomy], ICSS [International Carotid Stenting Study], and CREST [Carotid Revascularization Endarterectomy Versus Stenting Trial]). Procedural risk was defined as any stroke or death ≤30 days after treatment. We compared procedural risk between both treatments with Cox regression analysis, stratified by history of CHD and age (<70, 70-74, ≥75 years). History of CHD included myocardial infarction, angina, or coronary revascularization. Results- One thousand two hundred ninety-three (28%) patients had history of CHD. Procedural stroke or death risk was higher in patients with history of CHD. Procedural risk in patients treated with CAS compared with CEA was consistent in patients with history of CHD (8.3% versus 4.6%; hazard ratio [HR], 1.96; 95% CI, 0.67-5.73) and in those without (6.9% versus 3.6%; HR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.40-2.65; Pinteraction=0.89). In patients with history of CHD, procedural risk was significantly higher after CAS compared with CEA in patients aged ≥75 (CAS-to-CEA HR, 2.78; 95% CI, 1.32-5.85), but not in patients aged <70 (HR, 1.71; 95% CI, 0.79-3.71) and 70 to 74 years (HR, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.45-2.65). In contrast, in patients without history of CHD, procedural risk after CAS was higher in patients aged 70 to 74 (HR, 3.62; 95% CI, 1.80-7.29) and ≥75 years (HR, 2.64; 95% CI, 1.52-4.59), but equal in patients aged <70 years (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.63-1.73; 3-way Pinteraction=0.09). Conclusions- History of CHD does not modify procedural stroke or death risk of CAS compared with CEA. CAS might be as safe as CEA in patients with history of CHD aged <75 years, whereas for patients without history of CHD, risk after CAS compared with CEA was only equal in those aged <70 years.

Cerebral Perfusion and the Occurrence of Nonfocal Transient Neurological Attacks.

INTRODUCTION: Nonfocal transient neurological attacks (TNAs) are associated with an increased risk of cardiac events, stroke and dementia. Their etiology is still unknown. Global cerebral hypoperfusion has been suggested to play a role in their etiology, but this has not been investigated. We assessed whether lower total brain perfusion is associated with a higher occurrence of TNAs. METHODS: Between 2015 and 2018, patients with heart failure were included in the Heart Brain Connection study. Patients underwent brain magnetic resonance imaging, including quantitative magnetic resonance angiography (QMRA) to measure cerebral blood flow (CBF). We calculated total brain perfusion of each participant by dividing total CBF by brain volume. Patients were interviewed with a standardized questionnaire on the occurrence of TNAs by physicians who were blinded to QMRA flow status. We assessed the relation between total brain perfusion and the occurrence of TNAs with Poisson regression analysis. RESULTS: Of 136 patients (mean age 70 years, 68% men), 29 (21%) experienced ≥1 TNAs. Nonrotatory dizziness was the most common subtype of TNA. Patients with TNAs were more often female and more often had angina pectoris than patients without TNAs, but total CBF and total brain perfusion were not different between both groups. Total brain perfusion was not associated with the occurrence of TNAs (adjusted risk ratio 1.12, 95% CI 0.88-1.42). CONCLUSION: We found no association between total brain perfusion and the occurrence of TNAs in patients with heart failure.

External Validation of Risk Scores for Major Bleeding in a Population-Based Cohort of Transient Ischemic Attack and Ischemic Stroke Patients.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The S2TOP-BLEED score may help to identify patients at high risk of bleeding on antiplatelet drugs after a transient ischemic attack or ischemic stroke. The score was derived on trial populations, and its performance in a real-world setting is unknown. We aimed to externally validate the S2TOP-BLEED score for major bleeding in a population-based cohort and to compare its performance with other risk scores for bleeding. METHODS: We studied risk of bleeding in 2072 patients with a transient ischemic attack or ischemic stroke on antiplatelet agents in the population-based OXVASC (Oxford Vascular Study) according to 3 scores: S2TOP-BLEED, REACH, and Intracranial-B2LEED3S. Performance was assessed with C statistics and calibration plots. RESULTS: During 8302 patient-years of follow-up, 117 patients had a major bleed. The S2TOP-BLEED score showed a C statistic of 0.69 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.64-0.73) and accurate calibration for 3-year risk of major bleeding. The S2TOP-BLEED score was much more predictive of fatal bleeding than nonmajor bleeding (C statistics 0.77; 95% CI, 0.69-0.85 and 0.50; 95% CI, 0.44-0.58). The REACH score had a C statistic of 0.63 (95% CI, 0.58-0.69) for major bleeding and the Intracranial-B2LEED3S score a C statistic of 0.60 (95% CI, 0.51-0.70) for intracranial bleeding. The ratio of ischemic events versus bleeds decreased across risk groups of bleeding from 6.6:1 in the low-risk group to 1.8:1 in the high-risk group. CONCLUSIONS: The S2TOP-BLEED score shows modest performance in a population-based cohort of patients with a transient ischemic attack or ischemic stroke. Although bleeding risks were associated with risks of ischemic events, risk stratification may still be useful to identify a subgroup of patients at particularly high risk of bleeding, in whom preventive measures are indicated.

Prediction Models for Clinical Outcome After a Carotid Revascularization Procedure.

Background and Purpose- Prediction models may help physicians to stratify patients with high and low risk for periprocedural complications or long-term stroke risk after carotid artery stenting or carotid endarterectomy. We aimed to evaluate external performance of previously published prediction models for short- and long-term outcome after carotid revascularization in patients with symptomatic carotid artery stenosis. Methods- From a literature review, we selected all prediction models that used only readily available patient characteristics known before procedure initiation. Follow-up data from 2184 carotid artery stenting and 2261 carotid endarterectomy patients from 4 randomized trials (EVA-3S [Endarterectomy Versus Angioplasty in Patients With Symptomatic Severe Carotid Stenosis], SPACE [Stent-Protected Angioplasty Versus Carotid Endarterectomy], ICSS [International Carotid Stenting Study], and CREST [Carotid Revascularization Endarterectomy Versus Stenting Trial]) were used to validate 23 short-term outcome models to estimate stroke or death risk ≤30 days after the procedure and the original outcome measure for which the model was developed. Additionally, we validated 7 long-term outcome models for the original outcome measure. Predictive performance of the models was assessed with C statistics and calibration plots. Results- Stroke or death ≤30 days after the procedure occurred in 158 (7.2%) patients after carotid artery stenting and in 84 (3.7%) patients after carotid endarterectomy. Most models for short-term outcome after carotid artery stenting (n=4) or carotid endarterectomy (n=19) had poor discriminative performance (C statistics ranging from 0.49-0.64) and poor calibration with small absolute risk differences between the lowest and highest risk groups and overestimation of risk in the highest risk groups. Long-term outcome models (n=7) had a slightly better performance with C statistics ranging from 0.59 to 0.67 and reasonable calibration. Conclusions- Current models did not reliably predict outcome after carotid revascularization in a trial population of patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis. In particular, prediction of short-term outcome seemed to be difficult. Further external validation of existing prediction models or development of new prediction models is needed before such models can be used to support treatment decisions in individual patients.

Predicting the presence of macrovascular causes in non-traumatic intracerebral haemorrhage: the DIAGRAM prediction score.

OBJECTIVE: A substantial part of non-traumatic intracerebral haemorrhages (ICH) arises from a macrovascular cause, but there is little guidance on selection of patients for additional diagnostic work-up. We aimed to develop and externally validate a model for predicting the probability of a macrovascular cause in patients with non-traumatic ICH. METHODS: The DIagnostic AngioGRAphy to find vascular Malformations (DIAGRAM) study (n=298; 69 macrovascular cause; 23%) is a prospective, multicentre study assessing yield and accuracy of CT angiography (CTA), MRI/ magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) and intra-arterial catheter angiography in diagnosing macrovascular causes in patients with non-traumatic ICH. We considered prespecified patient and ICH characteristics in multivariable logistic regression analyses as predictors for a macrovascular cause. We combined independent predictors in a model, which we validated in an external cohort of 173 patients with ICH (78 macrovascular cause, 45%). RESULTS: Independent predictors were younger age, lobar or posterior fossa (vs deep) location of ICH, and absence of small vessel disease (SVD). A model that combined these predictors showed good performance in the development data (c-statistic 0.83; 95% CI 0.78 to 0.88) and moderate performance in external validation (c-statistic 0.66; 95% CI 0.58 to 0.74). When CTA results were added, the c-statistic was excellent (0.91; 95% CI 0.88 to 0.94) and good after external validation (0.88; 95% CI 0.83 to 0.94). Predicted probabilities varied from 1% in patients aged 51-70 years with deep ICH and SVD, to more than 50% in patients aged 18-50 years with lobar or posterior fossa ICH without SVD. CONCLUSION: The DIAGRAM scores help to predict the probability of a macrovascular cause in patients with non-traumatic ICH based on age, ICH location, SVD and CTA.

Predicting Major Bleeding in Ischemic Stroke Patients With Atrial Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Performance of risk scores for major bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation and a previous transient ischemic attack or ischemic stroke is not well established. We aimed to validate risk scores for major bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation treated with oral anticoagulants after cerebral ischemia and explore the net benefit of oral anticoagulants among bleeding risk categories. METHODS: We analyzed 3623 patients with a history of transient ischemic attack or stroke included in the RE-LY trial (Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulation Therapy). We assessed performance of HEMORR2HAGES (hepatic or renal disease, ethanol abuse, malignancy, older age, reduced platelet count or function, hypertension [uncontrolled], anemia, genetic factors, excessive fall risk, and stroke), Shireman, HAS-BLED (hypertension, abnormal renal/liver function, stroke, bleeding history or predisposition, labile international normalized ratio, elderly, drugs/alcohol concomitantly), ATRIA (Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation), and ORBIT scores (older age, reduced haemoglobin/haematocrit/history of anaemia, bleeding history, insufficient kidney function, and treatment with antiplatelet) with C statistics and calibration plots. Net benefit of oral anticoagulants was explored by comparing risk reduction in ischemic stroke with risk increase in major bleedings on warfarin. RESULTS: During 6922 person-years of follow-up, 266 patients experienced a major bleed (3.8 per 100 person-years). C statistics ranged from 0.62 (Shireman) to 0.67 (ATRIA). Calibration was poor for ATRIA and moderate for other models. The reduction in recurrent ischemic strokes on warfarin was larger than the increase in major bleeding risk, irrespective of bleeding risk category. CONCLUSIONS: Performance of prediction models for major bleeding in patients with cerebral ischemia and atrial fibrillation is modest but comparable with performance in patients with only atrial fibrillation. Bleeding risk scores cannot guide treatment decisions for oral anticoagulants but may still be useful to identify modifiable risk factors for bleeding. Clinical usefulness may be best for ORBIT, which is based on a limited number of easily obtainable variables and showed reasonable performance.

The Intracranial-B2LEED3S Score and the Risk of Intracranial Hemorrhage in Ischemic Stroke Patients Under Antiplatelet Treatment.

BACKGROUND: Chronic antiplatelet therapy in the post-acute phase of non-cardioembolic ischemic stroke is limited by the risk of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) complications. METHODS: We developed an ICH risk score based on the PERFORM trial cohort (n = 19,100), which included patients with a non-cardioembolic ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack, and externally validated this score in one contemporary trial of very similar size and inclusion criteria, the PRoFESS trial (n = 20,332 patients). Outcome was ICH over 2 years. A Cox proportional-hazard regression analysis identified risk factors. Discrimination was quantified with c-statistics and calibration was assessed by comparing predicted and observed ICH risk in PERFORM and PRoFESS. RESULTS: ICH occurred within 2 years in 263 (1.4%) patients in PERFORM trial and in 246 (1.2%) patients in PRoFESS trial. A 13-point score based on 9 items (Intracranial-B2LEED3S score - low body mass index, blood pressure, lacune, elderly, Asian ethnicity, coronary artery or cerebrovascular disease history, dual antithrombotic agent or oral anticoagulant, gender) was derived from the PERFORM trial. In PERFORM, the observed 2-year ICH risk varied from 0.75% in low-risk (score ≤2) to 2.44% in high-risk patients (score ≥5) with an acceptable calibration but a low discrimination both in PERFORM (c-statistic 0.64, 95% CI 0.61-0.68) and on external validation in PRoFESS (0.58, 95% CI 0.55-0.62). CONCLUSION: The Intracranial-B2LEED3S score helps identify patients who are at a high risk of bleeding. However, other variables need to be identified to improve the score (e.g., microbleeds) (Clinical Trial Registration Information ISRCTN66157730). URL: http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN66157730?totalResults=5&pageSize=10&page=1&searchType=basic-search&offset=3&q=&filters=conditionCategory%3ACirculatory+System%2CrecruitmentCountry%3ATaiwan%2CrecruitmentCountry%3AAustria&sort=.