The NHS visitor and migrant cost recovery programme - a threat to health?

BACKGROUND: In April 2014 the UK government launched the 'NHS Visitor and Migrant Cost Recovery Programme Implementation Plan' which set out a series of policy changes to recoup costs from 'chargeable' (largely non-UK born) patients. In England, approximately 75% of tuberculosis (TB) cases occur in people born abroad. Delays in TB treatment increase risk of morbidity, mortality and transmission in the community. We investigated whether diagnostic delay has increased since the Cost Recovery Programme (CRP) was introduced. METHODS: There were 3342 adult TB cases notified on the London TB Register across Barts Health NHS Trust between 1st January 2011 and 31st December 2016. Cases with missing relevant information were excluded. The median time between symptom onset and treatment initiation before and after the CRP was calculated according to birthplace and compared using the Mann Whitney test. Delayed diagnosis was considered greater or equal to median time to treatment for all patients (79 days). Univariable logistic regression was used to manually select exposure variables for inclusion in a multivariable model to test the association between diagnostic delay and the implementation of the CRP. RESULTS: We included 2237 TB cases. Among non-UK born patients, median time-to-treatment increased from 69 days to 89 days following introduction of CRP (p < 0.001). Median time-to-treatment also increased for the UK-born population from 75.5 days to 89.5 days (p = 0.307). The multivariable logistic regression model showed non-UK born patients were more likely to have a delay in diagnosis after the CRP (adjOR 1.37, 95% CI 1.13-1.66, p value 0.001). CONCLUSION: Since the introduction of the CRP there has been a significant delay for TB treatment among non-UK born patients. Further research exploring the effect of policies restricting access to healthcare for migrants is urgently needed if we wish to eliminate TB nationally.

Dendritic cell phenotype in severe asthma reflects clinical responsiveness to glucocorticoids.

BACKGROUND: Subsets of patients with severe asthma remain symptomatic despite prolonged, high-dose glucocorticoid therapy. We hypothesized that the clinical glucocorticoid sensitivity of these asthmatics is reflected in differences in peripheral blood dendritic cell subsets. OBJECTIVE: To compare peripheral blood leucocyte populations using flow cytometry at baseline and after 2 weeks of systemic glucocorticoid (steroid) treatment to identify immunological differences between steroid-sensitive (SS) and steroid-resistant (SR) asthmatics. METHODS: Adult severe asthmatics (SS n = 12; SR n = 23) were assessed for their response to 2 weeks of therapy with oral prednisolone. Peripheral blood was obtained before and after therapy and stained for lymphocyte (CD3, CD19, CD4, CD8 and Foxp3) and dendritic cell markers (Lineage negative [CD3, CD14, CD16, CD19, CD20, CD56], HLA-DR+, CD304, CD11c, ILT3 and CD86). RESULTS: A higher median frequency of myeloid DCs (mDCs) but not plasmacytoid DCs (pDCs) was observed in the blood of SR as compared to SS asthmatics (P = .03). Glucocorticoid therapy significantly increased median B cell, but not T cell numbers in both cohorts, with a trend for increased numbers of Foxp3+ Tregs in SS (P = .07), but not SR subjects. Oral prednisolone therapy significantly reduced the median numbers and frequencies of total DCs and pDCs in both SS and SR asthmatics. Interestingly, the expression of HLA-DR and ILT3 was also reduced on pDCs in all patients. In contrast, therapy increased the median frequency of mDCs in SS, but reduced it in SR asthmatics. CONCLUSIONS: Myeloid DC frequency is elevated in SR compared with SS asthmatics, and mDC shows a differential response to oral prednisolone therapy.

Effects of vitamin D2 or D3 supplementation on glycaemic control and cardiometabolic risk among people at risk of type 2 diabetes: results of a randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial.

AIMS: To investigate the effect of short-term vitamin D supplementation on cardiometabolic outcomes among individuals with an elevated risk of diabetes. METHODS: In a double-blind placebo-controlled randomized trial, 340 adults who had an elevated risk of type 2 diabetes (non-diabetic hyperglycaemia or positive diabetes risk score) were randomized to either placebo, 100,000 IU vitamin D2 (ergocalciferol) or 100,000 IU vitamin D3 (cholecalciferol), orally administered monthly for 4 months. The primary outcome was change in glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) between baseline and 4 months, adjusted for baseline. Secondary outcomes included: blood pressure; lipid levels; apolipoprotein levels; C-reactive protein levels; pulse wave velocity (PWV); anthropometric measures; and safety of the supplementation. RESULTS: The mean [standard deviation (s.d.)] 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D]2 concentration increased from 5.2 (4.1) to 53.9 (18.5) nmol/l in the D2 group, and the mean (s.d.) 25(OH)D3 concentration increased from 45.8 (22.6) to 83.8 (22.7) nmol/l in the D3 group. There was no effect of vitamin D supplementation on HbA1c: D2 versus placebo: -0.05% [95% confidence interval (CI) -0.11, 0.02] or -0.51 mmol/mol (95% CI -1.16, 0.14; p = 0.13); D3 versus placebo: 0.02% (95% CI -0.04, 0.08) or 0.19 mmol/mol (95% CI -0.46, 0.83; p = 0.57). There were no clinically meaningful effects on secondary outcomes, except PWV [D2 versus placebo: -0.68 m/s (95% CI -1.31, -0.05); D3 versus placebo -0.73 m/s (95% CI -1.42, -0.03)]. No important safety issues were identified. CONCLUSIONS: Short-term supplementation with vitamin D2 or D3 had no effect on HbA1c. The modest reduction in PWV with both D2 and D3 relative to placebo suggests that vitamin D supplementation has a beneficial effect on arterial stiffness.

Association between Gc genotype and susceptibility to TB is dependent on vitamin D status.

Group-specific component (Gc) variants of vitamin D binding protein differ in their affinity for vitamin D metabolites that modulate antimycobacterial immunity. We conducted studies to determine whether Gc genotype associates with susceptibility to tuberculosis (TB). The following subjects were recruited into case-control studies: in the UK, 123 adult TB patients and 140 controls, all of Gujarati Asian ethnic origin; in Brazil, 130 adult TB patients and 78 controls; and in South Africa, 281 children with TB and 182 controls. Gc genotypes were determined and their frequency was compared between cases versus controls. Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentrations were obtained retrospectively for 139 Gujarati Asians, and case-control analysis was stratified by vitamin D status. Interferon (IFN)-gamma release assays were also performed on 36 Gujarati Asian TB contacts. The Gc2/2 genotype was strongly associated with susceptibility to active TB in Gujarati Asians, compared with Gc1/1 genotype (OR 2.81, 95% CI 1.19-6.66; p = 0.009). This association was preserved if serum 25(OH)D was <20 nmol.L(-1) (p = 0.01) but not if serum 25(OH)D was > or =20 nmol.L(-1) (p = 0.36). Carriage of the Gc2 allele was associated with increased PPD of tuberculin-stimulated IFN-gamma release in Gujarati Asian TB contacts (p = 0.02). No association between Gc genotype and susceptibility to TB was observed in other ethnic groups studied.

Feasibility and acceptability of offering rapid HIV tests to patients registering with primary care in London (UK): a pilot study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the acceptability and feasibility of offering rapid HIV tests to patients registering with primary care in London, UK. METHODS: All Anglophone and Francophone patients aged between 18 and 55 years attending a large inner city general practice in London for a new patient health check were recruited. All eligible patients were offered a rapid HIV test on oral fluid and asked to participate in a qualitative interview. The uptake of rapid HIV testing among participants was measured and semistructured interviews were carried out focusing on the advantages and disadvantages of testing for HIV in primary care. RESULTS: 111 people attended the health check, of whom 85 were eligible, 47 took part in the study and 20 completed qualitative interviews. Nearly half of eligible participants (38/85, 45%) accepted a rapid HIV test. The main reason for accepting a test was because it was offered as "part of a check up". As a combined group, black African and black Caribbean patients were more likely to test in the study compared with patients from other ethnic backgrounds (p = 0.014). Participants in the qualitative interviews felt that having rapid HIV tests available in general practice was acceptable but expressed concerns about support for the newly diagnosed. CONCLUSIONS: Offering patients a rapid HIV test in primary care is feasible and could be an effective means to increase testing rates in this setting. A larger descriptive study or pragmatic trial is needed to determine whether this strategy could increase timely diagnosis and reduce the proportion of undiagnosed HIV infections in the UK.

Influence of a single oral dose of vitamin D(2) on serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations in tuberculosis patients.

SETTING: Newham Chest Clinic, London, UK. OBJECTIVE: To determine the safety and efficacy of the administration of bolus-dose vitamin D(2) in elevating serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) concentrations in tuberculosis (TB) patients. DESIGN: A multi-ethnic cohort of TB patients was randomised to receive a single oral dose of 2.5 mg vitamin D(2) (n = 11) or placebo (n = 14). Serum 25(OH)D and corrected calcium concentrations were determined at baseline and 1 week and 8 weeks post-dose, and compared to those of a multi-ethnic cohort of 56 healthy adults receiving an identical dose of vitamin D(2). RESULTS: Hypovitaminosis D (serum 25[OH]D < 75 nmol/l) was present in all patients at baseline. A single oral dose of 2.5 mg vitamin D2 corrected hypovitaminosis D in all patients in the intervention arm of the study at 1 week post-dose, and induced a 109.5 nmol/l mean increase in their serum 25(OH)D concentration. Hypovitaminosis D recurred in 10/11 patients at 8 weeks post-dose. No patient receiving vitamin D(2) experienced hypercalcaemia. Patients receiving 2.5 mg vitamin D(2) experienced a greater mean increase in serum 25(OH)D at 1 week post-dose than healthy adults receiving 2.5 mg vitamin D(2). CONCLUSION: A single oral dose of 2.5 mg vitamin D(2) corrects hypovitaminosis D at 1 week but not at 8 weeks post-dose in TB patients.

Review of invasive urodynamics and progress towards non-invasive measurements in the assessment of bladder outlet obstruction.

OBJECTIVE: This article defines the need for objective measurements to help diagnose the cause of lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS). It describes the conventional techniques available, mainly invasive, and then summarizes the emerging range of non-invasive measurement techniques. METHODS: This is a narrative review derived form the clinical and scientific knowledge of the authors together with consideration of selected literature. RESULTS: Consideration of measured bladder pressure urinary flow rate during voiding in an invasive pressure flow study is considered the gold standard for categorization of bladder outlet obstruction (BOO). The diagnosis is currently made by plotting the detrusor pressure at maximum flow (p(detQmax)) and maximum flow rate (Q(max)) on the nomogram approved by the International Continence Society. This plot will categorize the void as obstructed, equivocal or unobstructed. The invasive and relatively complex nature of this investigation has led to a number of inventive techniques to categorize BOO either by measuring bladder pressure non-invasively or by providing a proxy measure such as bladder weight. CONCLUSION: Non-invasive methods of diagnosing BOO show great promise and a few have reached the stage of being commercially available. Further studies are however needed to validate the measurement technique and assess their worth in the assessment of men with LUTS.

Self-management education programmes by lay leaders for people with chronic conditions.

BACKGROUND: Lay-led self-management programmes are becoming widespread in the attempt to promote self-care for people with chronic conditions. OBJECTIVES: To assess systematically the effectiveness of lay-led self-management programmes for people with chronic conditions. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched: the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL, The Cochrane Library 2005, Issue 1), MEDLINE (January 1986 to May 2006), EMBASE (January 1986 to June 2006), AMED (January 1986 to June 2006), CINAHL (January 1986 to June 2006), DARE (1994 to July 2006, National Research Register (2000 to July 2006), NHS Economic Evaluations Database (1994 to July 2006), PsycINFO (January 1986 to June 2006), Science Citation Index (January 1986 to July 2006), reference lists and forward citation tracking of included studies. We contacted principal investigators and experts in the field. There were no language restrictions. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing structured lay-led self-management education programmes for chronic conditions against no intervention or clinician-led programmes. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two authors independently assessed trial quality and extracted data. We contacted study authors for additional information. Results of RCTs were pooled using a random-effects model with standardised mean differences (SMDs) or weighted mean differences (WMDs) for continuous outcomes. MAIN RESULTS: We included seventeen trials involving 7442 participants. The interventions shared similar structures and components but studies showed heterogeneity in conditions studied, outcomes collected and effects. There were no studies of children and adolescents, only one study provided data on outcomes beyond six months, and only two studies reported clinical outcomes. PRIMARY OUTCOMES: Health status: There was a small, statistically-significant reduction in: pain (11 studies, SMD -0.10 (95% confidence interval (CI) -0.17 to -0.04)); disability (8 studies, SMD -0.15 (95% CI -0.25 to -0.05); and fatigue (7 studies, SMD -0.16 (95% CI -0.23 to -0.09); and small, statistically-significant improvement in depression (6 studies, SMD -0.16 95% CI -0.24 to -0.07). There was a small (but not statistically- or clinically-significant) improvement in psychological well-being (5 studies; SMD -0.12 (95% CI -0.33 to 0.09)); but no difference between groups for health-related quality of life (3 studies; WMD -0.03 (95% CI -0.09 to 0.02). Six studies showed a statistically-significant improvement in self-rated general health (WMD -0.20 (95% CI -0.31 to -0.10). Health behaviours: 7 studies showed a small, statistically-significant increase in self-reported aerobic exercise (SMD -0.20 (95% CI -0.27 to -0.12)) and a moderate increase in cognitive symptom management (4 studies, WMD -0.55 ( 95% CI -0.85 to -0.26)). Healthcare use: There were no statistically-significant differences between groups in physician or general practitioner attendance (9 studies; SMD -0.03 (95% CI -0.09 to 0.04)). There were also no statistically-significant differences between groups for days/nights spent in hospital (6 studies; WMD -0.32 (95% CI -0.71 to 0.07)). Self-efficacy: (confidence to manage condition) showed a small statistically-significant improvement (10 studies): SMD -0.30, 95% CI -0.41 to -0.19. No adverse events were reported in any of the studies. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Lay-led self-management education programmes may lead to small, short-term improvements in participants' self-efficacy, self-rated health, cognitive symptom management, and frequency of aerobic exercise. There is currently no evidence to suggest that such programmes improve psychological health, symptoms or health-related quality of life, or that they significantly alter healthcare use. Future research on such interventions should explore longer term outcomes, their effect on clinical measures of disease and their potential role in children and adolescents.

Gamification for health promotion: systematic review of behaviour change techniques in smartphone apps.

OBJECTIVE: Smartphone games that aim to alter health behaviours are common, but there is uncertainty about how to achieve this. We systematically reviewed health apps containing gaming elements analysing their embedded behaviour change techniques. METHODS: Two trained researchers independently coded apps for behaviour change techniques using a standard taxonomy. We explored associations with user ratings and price. DATA SOURCES: We screened the National Health Service (NHS) Health Apps Library and all top-rated medical, health and wellness and health and fitness apps (defined by Apple and Google Play stores based on revenue and downloads). We included free and paid English language apps using 'gamification' (rewards, prizes, avatars, badges, leaderboards, competitions, levelling-up or health-related challenges). We excluded apps targeting health professionals. RESULTS: 64 of 1680 (4%) health apps included gamification and met inclusion criteria; only 3 of these were in the NHS Library. Behaviour change categories used were: feedback and monitoring (n=60, 94% of apps), reward and threat (n=52, 81%), and goals and planning (n=52, 81%). Individual techniques were: self-monitoring of behaviour (n=55, 86%), non-specific reward (n=49, 82%), social support unspecified (n=48, 75%), non-specific incentive (n=49, 82%) and focus on past success (n=47, 73%). Median number of techniques per app was 14 (range: 5-22). Common combinations were: goal setting, self-monitoring, non-specific reward and non-specific incentive (n=35, 55%); goal setting, self-monitoring and focus on past success (n=33, 52%). There was no correlation between number of techniques and user ratings (p=0.07; rs=0.23) or price (p=0.45; rs=0.10). CONCLUSIONS: Few health apps currently employ gamification and there is a wide variation in the use of behaviour change techniques, which may limit potential to improve health outcomes. We found no correlation between user rating (a possible proxy for health benefits) and game content or price. Further research is required to evaluate effective behaviour change techniques and to assess clinical outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42015029841.

Automated recognition of EEG changes accompanying arousal in respiratory sleep disorders.

Daytime sleepiness and impaired cognitive function can be a consequence of recurrent transient arousal from sleep, associated with abrupt changes in the electroencephalogram (EEG). EEG is normally assessed by trained observers from paper records, but automation offers the advantages of speed and objectivity. We assessed 10 automated indices of EEG activity as potential indicators of arousal. Arousals from light, slow wave and rapid eye movement sleep were studied in 30 subjects. Segments of EEG recorded immediately before and after each arousal were analyzed by automated measurement of 10 EEG indices using a personal computer. We investigated the ability of each index to recognize arousal while rejecting change due to variability during sleep. Nine of the 10 indices showed significant changes with arousal (p < 0.001); the better indices were related to EEG frequency, and 3 were chosen for further study. In these indices, the mean changes with arousal were 3.8 Hz (ZeroCross), 1.7 Hz (Hjorth's Mobility) and 1.2 Hz (FrqMean, an index of central EEG frequency). With none of these three indices were significant differences in performance due to base sleep stage or subject group found. We conclude that detection of arousal is feasible using automated methods that measure simple indices related to the frequency of the EEG waveform.

The effect of controlled-release salbutamol on sleep and nocturnal oxygenation in patients with asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Patients with asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) may have falls in oxygen saturation at night. We have investigated the effect of a long acting beta agonist (salbutamol CR) on nocturnal oxygen saturation (SaO2) in asthma and COPD. Eleven asthmatic and 14 COPD patients in stable condition were randomly allocated to 8 mg salbutamol CR or placebo twice daily in a double-blind, cross-over study. FEV1 at entry was 71.5% predicted in the asthmatic patients and 36% predicted in the COPD group. Each treatment period lasted 7 days, at the end of which measurements of ventilatory function and detailed sleep studies were performed. There was a significant improvement in morning FEV1 in the asthmatic patients when on active treatment and a small, but non-significant improvement in the COPD group. Sleep architecture and oxygenation were similar on placebo and on active treatment in both groups. We conclude that salbutamol CR has no significant effect on nocturnal oxygenation or sleep pattern in patients with mild asthma or moderately severe COPD.

Can postal prompts from general practitioners improve the uptake of breast screening? A randomised controlled trial in one east London general practice.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the effect on the uptake of breast screening of a personalized letter from the general practitioner recommending mammography, sent to coincide with an invitation from the NHS breast screening programme. DESIGN: Randomised control trial with stratification of prognostic variables. SETTING: A group practice in Hackney, east London. SUBJECTS: 473 women invited for breast screening by the City and East London Breast Screening Service. OUTCOME MEASURE: Attendance for mammography. RESULTS: All women in the randomised trial were followed up; 134 of 236 (57%) randomly allocated to receive the prompting letter attended for mammography compared with 120 of 234 (51%) controls This difference was not significant (chi 2 = 1.43, p = 0.23) CONCLUSION: Personal recommendation by a letter prompting attendance for mammography from the general practitioner known best to women due to be screened did not improve uptake of breast screening in this east London practice. Other strategies are needed to increase uptake of mammography in inner cities.

Protection and radiography of heat affected teeth.

The authors propose a protocol for the stabilisation and protection of the fragile human skull (following very hot fires where there is breakdown of teeth and bone). Also discussed is a method for carrying out dental radiology on heat affected bone and teeth.

Forensic dental training in Australia.

To facilitate in the identification of victims of a major disaster a trained dental manpower reserve is required. In the state of New South Wales, Australia, an annual three-day training course has been designed to familiarize dentists from both the public and private sectors with identification techniques. The course is aimed to preserve the flexibility of personnel so that they can be utilized in a variety of roles rather than rigidly structuring the make up of a team. It is envisaged though, that in a mass disaster situation teams would be specialized into dental autopsy, antemortem or comparison roles.

Review of seven cardiac electrophysiology stimulators.

Seven cardiac electrophysiology stimulators from four manufacturers (Biotronik, Bloom, Digitimer and Medtronic) in common current use are reviewed. The stimulators differ in the features provided and the design adopted to achieve these features. The number of output channels ranges from one to four, the number of extra-stimuli available ranges from two to six, and these can be delivered as a variety of sequences. Some of the stimulators (Digitimer and Bloom) are modular while others (Biotronik and Medtronic 532 series) are of an integrated design comprising a single physical unit. The design of the Medtronic EP-2 has both integrated and modular characteristics. The features of the stimulators associated with input, output, control and the user interface are specifically reviewed. The features are also compared against the published recommendations of the American Heart Association. In addition, a summary of stimulator user comments from a number of electrophysiology centres is presented. All of the stimulators fulfil, or are close to fulfilling, basic electrophysiological requirements, but some provide more complex facilities such as would be required by specialist centres.

Automated measurement of the cyclic activity of respiratory muscles.

A microcomputer-based system developed for the automated analysis of the electromyogram (EMG) recorded from respiratory muscles in a variety of situations is described. In addition, an assessment of the performance of the system is presented, along with data relating intercostal EMG activity to ribcage movement in seated subjects. Studies were performed on sixteen normal subjects--non smokers, mean (+/- SD) age 31 (+/- 6) years, mean (+/- SD) mass 78 (+/- 8) kg--of which fifteen studies proved suitable for analysis. Each study lasted for a period of five minutes, during which time recordings of intercostal EMG, ribcage postero-anterior displacement (RCPA) and airflow were made. For every breath taken by each of the subjects, the peak integrated EMG activity (iEMGpeak) was measured both by hand and by the automated system. The automated and manual measurements of iEMGpeak, which ranged from 0.0 to 91.3 microV, differed by only -0.82 +/- 3.34 microV (mean +/- SD). The index iEMGpeak and two additional indices of iEMG activity (iEMGmean, iEMGarea) were evaluated with respect to RCPA, a measure of overall respiratory activity. The indices of iEMG were observed to show an exponential dependence on RCPAamp, the amplitude of ribcage motion. Following a log transformation to linearise the relationship, the correlation of each index with RCPAamp was evaluated; iEMGpeak and iEMGarea correlated similarly with RCPAamp (no significant difference at 5% level), but iEMGmean was found to be a significantly different (p < 0.001) and poorer correlate. We conclude that the automated analysis of respiratory iEMG as described in this paper can provide results showing consistency with manual measurement.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Stability of the human body investigated by sway magnetometry.

A new technique using a pre-calibrated magnetometer has been used to investigate the stability of the human body. Transducer coils were attached to a belt which was worn by the subject. Sway was measured over 30 s periods with eyes open and eyes closed. For 10 normal subjects, the mean sway speed was 3.6 +/- 0.9 mm/s with eyes open, and 5.3 +/- 1.5 mm/s with eyes closed. The mean ratio for eyes open to eyes closed was 0.68 +/- 0.10. The test was simple to perform and gave reproducible results.

The effect of posture on Quantec measurements.

The effect of moving the patient's centre of gravity from one extreme to the other, where the weight is entirely supported on the left or right foot at either extreme, was investigated in 33 patients attending for surface topography measurements with the Quantec Spinal Measurement System. Average changes of about 20 were seen in the measured curvature of the lower spine line and pelvic tilt, but there was considerable variation between individual patients. When such extremes of stance were included, the reproducibility of measurements of the curvature of the lower spine, pelvic tilt and vertical alignment was poorer, but not to the extent that a significant improvement in reproducibility would be expected if the patient's centre of gravity was closely controlled with, for example, a force platform.

Monitoring the thoracic sagittal curvature in kyphoscoliosis with surface topography: a trend analysis of 57 patients.

Records of Quantec measurements of tlie kypliotic curvature of the back were reviewed for all patients attending the children's orthopaedic clinic who were referred for back shape measurements. Of these, 57 children had five or more preoperative visits allowing trends to be calculated. Linear trends were found in 30 of the patients, with gradients ranging from 1.1 degree/yr to 7.2(0)1/yr. On average, the scatter of measurements about the trend line, or about the mean value in the other 27 cases, compared well with that expected from repeatability studies but the amount of scatter varied from one patient to another. This may well be due to sampling. Where such measurements are monitored for evidence of change in an individual patient, the possibility of larger than average scatter about any emerging trend should be considered.