Immunity acquired by a minority active fraction of the population could explain COVID-19 spread in Greater Buenos Aires (June-November 2020).

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic had an uneven development in different countries. In Argentina, the pandemic began in March 2020 and, during the first 3 months, the vast majority of cases were concentrated in a densely populated region that includes the city of Buenos Aires (country capital) and the Greater Buenos Aires (GBA) area that surrounds it. This work focuses on the spread of COVID-19 between June and November 2020 in GBA. Within this period of time there was no vaccine, basically only the early wild strain of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was present, and the official restriction and distancing measures in this region remained more or less constant. Under these particular conditions, the incidences show a sharp rise from June 2020 and begin to decrease towards the end of August until the end of November 2020. In this work we study, through mathematical modelling and available epidemiological information, the spread of COVID-19 in this region and period of time. We show that a coherent explanation of the evolution of incidences can be obtained assuming that only a minority fraction of the population got involved in the spread process, so that the incidences decreased as this group of people was becoming immune. The observed evolution of the incidences could then be a consequence at the population level of lasting immunity conferred by SARS-CoV-2.

Dynamical Renormalization Group Approach to the Collective Behavior of Swarms.

We study the critical behavior of a model with nondissipative couplings aimed at describing the collective behavior of natural swarms, using the dynamical renormalization group under a fixed-network approximation. At one loop, we find a crossover between an unstable fixed point, characterized by a dynamical critical exponent z=d/2, and a stable fixed point with z=2, a result we confirm through numerical simulations. The crossover is regulated by a length scale given by the ratio between the transport coefficient and the effective friction, so that in finite-size biological systems with low dissipation, dynamics is ruled by the unstable fixed point. In three dimensions this mechanism gives z=3/2, a value significantly closer to the experimental window, 1.0≤z≤1.3, than the value z≈2 numerically found in fully dissipative models, either at or off equilibrium. This result indicates that nondissipative dynamical couplings are necessary to develop a theory of natural swarms fully consistent with experiments.

Dynamics and structural behavior of water in large confinement with planar amorphous walls.

We study the structure and dynamics of liquid water confined between planar amorphous walls using molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. We report MD results for systems of more than 23 000 SPC/E water molecules confined between two hydrophilic or hydrophobic walls, separated by distances of about 15 nm. We find that the walls induce ordering of the liquid and slow down the dynamics, affecting the properties of the confined water up to distances of about 8 nm at 275 K. We quantify this influence by computing dynamic and static penetration lengths and studying their temperature dependence. Our results indicate that in the temperature range considered, hydrophobic walls perturb static properties over larger lengths compared to hydrophilic walls. We also find opposite temperature trends in the dynamic penetration lengths, with hydrophobic walls increasing their range of influence on increasing the temperature.

Stability limits for the supercooled liquid and superheated crystal of Lennard-Jones particles.

We have studied the limits of stability in the first order liquid-solid phase transition in a Lennard-Jones system by means of the short-time relaxation method and using the bond-orientational order parameter Q6. These limits are compared with the melting line. We have paid special attention to the supercooled liquid, comparing our results with the point where the free energy cost of forming a nucleating droplet goes to zero. We also indirectly estimate the dimension associated to the critical nucleus at the spinodal, expected to be fractal according to mean field theories of nucleation.

Spatio-temporal correlations in models of collective motion ruled by different dynamical laws.

Information transfer is an essential factor in determining the robustness of biological systems with distributed control. The most direct way to study the mechanisms ruling information transfer is to experimentally observe the propagation across the system of a signal triggered by some perturbation. However, this method may be inefficient for experiments in the field, as the possibilities to perturb the system are limited and empirical observations must rely on natural events. An alternative approach is to use spatio-temporal correlations to probe the information transfer mechanism directly from the spontaneous fluctuations of the system, without the need to have an actual propagating signal on record. Here we test this method on models of collective behaviour in their deeply ordered phase by using ground truth data provided by numerical simulations in three dimensions. We compare two models characterized by very different dynamical equations and information transfer mechanisms: the classic Vicsek model, describing an overdamped noninertial dynamics and the inertial spin model, characterized by an underdamped inertial dynamics. By using dynamic finite-size scaling, we show that spatio-temporal correlations are able to distinguish unambiguously the diffusive information transfer mechanism of the Vicsek model from the linear mechanism of the inertial spin model.

Spinodals and critical point using short-time dynamics for a simple model of liquid.

We have applied the short-time dynamics method to the gas-liquid transition to detect the supercooled gas instability (gas spinodal) and the superheated liquid instability (liquid spinodal). Using Monte Carlo simulation, we have obtained the two spinodals for a wide range of pressure in sub-critical and critical conditions and estimated the critical temperature and pressure. Our method is faster than previous approaches and allows studying spinodals without needing equilibration of the system in the metastable region. It is thus free of the extrapolation problems present in other methods, and in principle could be applied to systems such as glass-forming liquids, where equilibration is very difficult even far from the spinodal. We have also done molecular dynamics simulations, where we find the method again able to detect the both spinodals. Our results are compared with different previous results in the literature and show a good agreement.

Specific Heat Anomaly in a Supercooled Liquid with Amorphous Boundary Conditions.

We study the specific heat of a model supercooled liquid confined in a spherical cavity with amorphous boundary conditions. We find the equilibrium specific heat has a cavity-size-dependent peak as a function of temperature. The cavity allows us to perform a finite-size scaling (FSS) analysis, which indicates that the peak persists at a finite temperature in the thermodynamic limit. We attempt to collapse the data onto a FSS curve according to different theoretical scenarios, obtaining reasonable results in two cases: a "not-so-simple" liquid with nonstandard values of the exponents α and ν, and random first-order theory, with two different length scales.

Silent flocks: constraints on signal propagation across biological groups.

Experiments find coherent information transfer through biological groups on length and time scales distinctly below those on which asymptotically correct hydrodynamic theories apply. We present here a new continuum theory of collective motion coupling the velocity and density fields of Toner and Tu to the inertial spin field recently introduced to describe information propagation in natural flocks of birds. The long-wavelength limit of the new equations reproduces the Toner-Tu theory, while at shorter wavelengths (or, equivalently, smaller damping), spin fluctuations dominate over density fluctuations, and second-sound propagation of the kind observed in real flocks emerges. We study the dispersion relation of the new theory and find that when the speed of second sound is large, a gap in momentum space sharply separates first- from second-sound modes. This gap implies the existence of silent flocks, namely, of medium-sized systems across which information cannot propagate in a linear and underdamped way, either under the form of orientational fluctuations or under that of density fluctuations, making it hard for the group to achieve coordination.

Static correlations functions and domain walls in glass-forming liquids: the case of a sandwich geometry.

The problem of measuring nontrivial static correlations in deeply supercooled liquids made recently some progress thanks to the introduction of amorphous boundary conditions, in which a set of free particles is subject to the effect of a different set of particles frozen into their (low temperature) equilibrium positions. In this way, one can study the crossover from nonergodic to ergodic phase, as the size of the free region grows and the effect of the confinement fades. Such crossover defines the so-called point-to-set correlation length, which has been measured in a spherical geometry, or cavity. Here, we make further progress in the study of correlations under amorphous boundary conditions by analyzing the equilibrium properties of a glass-forming liquid, confined in a planar ("sandwich") geometry. The mobile particles are subject to amorphous boundary conditions with the particles in the surrounding walls frozen into their low temperature equilibrium configurations. Compared to the cavity, the sandwich geometry has three main advantages: (i) the width of the sandwich is decoupled from its longitudinal size, making the thermodynamic limit possible; (ii) for very large width, the behaviour off a single wall can be studied; (iii) we can use "anti-parallel" boundary conditions to force a domain wall and measure its excess energy. Our results confirm that amorphous boundary conditions are indeed a very useful new tool in the study of static properties of glass-forming liquids, but also raise some warning about the fact that not all correlation functions that can be calculated in this framework give the same qualitative results.

Fluctuations in tissue growth portray homeostasis as a critical state and long-time non-Markovian cell proliferation as Markovian.

Tissue growth is an emerging phenomenon that results from the cell-level interplay between proliferation and apoptosis, which is crucial during embryonic development, tissue regeneration, as well as in pathological conditions such as cancer. In this theoretical article, we address the problem of stochasticity in tissue growth by first considering a minimal Markovian model of tissue size, quantified as the number of cells in a simulated tissue, subjected to both proliferation and apoptosis. We find two dynamic phases, growth and decay, separated by a critical state representing a homeostatic tissue. Since the main limitation of the Markovian model is its neglect of the cell cycle, we incorporated a refractory period that temporarily prevents proliferation immediately following cell division, as a minimal proxy for the cell cycle, and studied the model in the growth phase. Importantly, we obtained from this last model an effective Markovian rate, which accurately describes general trends of tissue size. This study shows that the dynamics of tissue growth can be theoretically conceptualized as a Markovian process where homeostasis is a critical state flanked by decay and growth phases. Notably, in the growing non-Markovian model, a Markovian-like growth process emerges at large time scales.

Scale-free correlations and potential criticality in weakly ordered populations of brain cancer cells.

Collective behavior spans several orders of magnitude of biological organization, from cell colonies to flocks of birds. We used time-resolved tracking of individual glioblastoma cells to investigate collective motion in an ex vivo model of glioblastoma. At the population level, glioblastoma cells display weakly polarized motion in the (directional) velocities of single cells. Unexpectedly, fluctuations in velocities are correlated over distances many times the size of a cell. Correlation lengths scale linearly with the maximum end-to-end length of the population, indicating that they are scale-free and lack a characteristic decay scale other than the size of the system. Last, a data-driven maximum entropy model captures statistical features of the experimental data with only two free parameters: the effective length scale (nc) and strength (J) of local pairwise interactions between tumor cells. These results show that glioblastoma assemblies exhibit scale-free correlations in the absence of polarization, suggesting that they may be poised near a critical point.

Scale-free correlations in the dynamics of a small (N∼10000) cortical network.

The advent of novel optogenetics technology allows the recording of brain activity with a resolution never seen before. The characterization of these very large data sets offers new challenges as well as unique theory-testing opportunities. Here we discuss whether the spatial and temporal correlations of the collective activity of thousands of neurons are tangled as predicted by the theory of critical phenomena. The analysis shows that both the correlation length ξ and the correlation time τ scale as predicted as a function of the system size. With some peculiarities that we discuss, the analysis uncovers evidence consistent with the view that the large-scale brain cortical dynamics corresponds to critical phenomena.

Dynamic relaxation of a liquid cavity under amorphous boundary conditions.

The growth of cooperatively rearranging regions was invoked long ago by Adam and Gibbs to explain the slowing down of glass-forming liquids. The lack of knowledge about the nature of the growing order, though, complicates the definition of an appropriate correlation function. One option is the point-to-set (PTS) correlation function, which measures the spatial span of the influence of amorphous boundary conditions on a confined system. By using a swap Monte Carlo algorithm we measure the equilibration time of a liquid droplet bounded by amorphous boundary conditions in a model glass-former at low temperature, and we show that the cavity relaxation time increases with the size of the droplet, saturating to the bulk value when the droplet outgrows the point-to-set correlation length. This fact supports the idea that the point-to-set correlation length is the natural size of the cooperatively rearranging regions. On the other hand, the cavity relaxation time computed by a standard, nonswap dynamics, has the opposite behavior, showing a very steep increase when the cavity size is decreased. We try to reconcile this difference by discussing the possible hybridization between mode-coupling theory and activated processes, and by introducing a new kind of amorphous boundary conditions, inspired by the concept of frozen external state as an alternative to the commonly used frozen external configuration.

Renormalization group study of marginal ferromagnetism.

When studying the collective motion of biological groups, a useful theoretical framework is that of ferromagnetic systems, in which the alignment interactions are a surrogate of the effective imitation among the individuals. In this context, the experimental discovery of scale-free correlations of speed fluctuations in starling flocks poses a challenge to common statistical physics wisdom, as in the ordered phase of standard ferromagnetic models with O(n) symmetry, the modulus of the order parameter has finite correlation length. To make sense of this anomaly, a ferromagnetic theory has been proposed, where the bare confining potential has zero second derivative (i.e., it is marginal) along the modulus of the order parameter. The marginal model exhibits a zero-temperature critical point, where the modulus correlation length diverges, hence allowing us to boost both correlation and collective order by simply reducing the temperature. Here, we derive an effective field theory describing the marginal model close to the T=0 critical point and calculate the renormalization group equations at one loop within a momentum shell approach. We discover a nontrivial scenario, as the cubic and quartic vertices do not vanish in the infrared limit, while the coupling constants effectively regulating the exponents ν and η have upper critical dimension d_{c}=2, so in three dimensions the critical exponents acquire their free values, ν=1/2 and η=0. This theoretical scenario is verified by a Monte Carlo study of the modulus susceptibility in three dimensions, where the standard finite-size scaling relations have to be adapted to the case of d>d_{c}. The numerical data fully confirm our theoretical results.

Tricritical behavior in a neural model with excitatory and inhibitory units.

While the support for the relevance of critical dynamics to brain function is increasing, there is much less agreement on the exact nature of the advocated critical point. Thus, a considerable number of theoretical efforts are currently concentrated on which mechanisms and what type(s) of transition can be exhibited by neuronal network models. In that direction, the present work describes the effect of incorporating a fraction of inhibitory neurons on the collective dynamics. As we show, this results in the appearance of a tricritical point for highly connected networks and a nonzero fraction of inhibitory neurons.

Short-time dynamics in active systems: the Vicsek model.

We study the short-time dynamics (STD) of the Vicsek model (VM) with vector noise. The study of STD has proved to be very useful in the determination of the critical point, critical exponents and spinodal points in equilibrium phase transitions. Here we aim is to test its applicability in active systems. We find that, despite the essential non-equilibrium characteristics of the VM (absence of detailed balance, activity), the STD presents qualitatively the same phenomenology as in equilibrium systems. From the STD one can distinguish whether the transition is continuous or discontinuous (which we have checked also computing the Binder cumulant). When the transition is continuous, one can determine the critical point and the critical exponents.

Marginal speed confinement resolves the conflict between correlation and control in collective behaviour.

Speed fluctuations of individual birds in natural flocks are moderate, due to the aerodynamic and biomechanical constraints of flight. Yet the spatial correlations of such fluctuations are scale-free, namely they have a range as wide as the entire group, a property linked to the capacity of the system to collectively respond to external perturbations. Scale-free correlations and moderate fluctuations set conflicting constraints on the mechanism controlling the speed of each agent, as the factors boosting correlation amplify fluctuations, and vice versa. Here, using a statistical field theory approach, we suggest that a marginal speed confinement that ignores small deviations from the natural reference value while ferociously suppressing larger speed fluctuations, is able to reconcile scale-free correlations with biologically acceptable group's speed. We validate our theoretical predictions by comparing them with field experimental data on starling flocks with group sizes spanning an unprecedented interval of over two orders of magnitude.

Finite-size correlation behavior near a critical point: A simple metric for monitoring the state of a neural network.

In this article, a correlation metric κ_{c} is proposed for the inference of the dynamical state of neuronal networks. κ_{C} is computed from the scaling of the correlation length with the size of the observation region, which shows qualitatively different behavior near and away from the critical point of a continuous phase transition. The implementation is first studied on a neuronal network model, where the results of this new metric coincide with those obtained from neuronal avalanche analysis, thus well characterizing the critical state of the network. The approach is further tested with brain optogenetic recordings in behaving mice from a publicly available database. Potential applications and limitations for its use with currently available optical imaging techniques are discussed.

Similar local neuronal dynamics may lead to different collective behavior.

This report is concerned with the relevance of the microscopic rules that implement individual neuronal activation, in determining the collective dynamics, under variations of the network topology. To fix ideas we study the dynamics of two cellular automaton models, commonly used, rather in-distinctively, as the building blocks of large-scale neuronal networks. One model, due to Greenberg and Hastings (GH), can be described by evolution equations mimicking an integrate-and-fire process, while the other model, due to Kinouchi and Copelli (KC), represents an abstract branching process, where a single active neuron activates a given number of postsynaptic neurons according to a prescribed "activity" branching ratio. Despite the apparent similarity between the local neuronal dynamics of the two models, it is shown that they exhibit very different collective dynamics as a function of the network topology. The GH model shows qualitatively different dynamical regimes as the network topology is varied, including transients to a ground (inactive) state, continuous and discontinuous dynamical phase transitions. In contrast, the KC model only exhibits a continuous phase transition, independently of the network topology. These results highlight the importance of paying attention to the microscopic rules chosen to model the interneuronal interactions in large-scale numerical simulations, in particular when the network topology is far from a mean-field description. One such case is the extensive work being done in the context of the Human Connectome, where a wide variety of types of models are being used to understand the brain collective dynamics.