[On the increase in mortality in Italy in 2015: analysis of seasonal mortality in the 32 municipalities included in the Surveillance system of daily mortality]. / Sull'incremento della mortalità in Italia nel 2015: analisi della mortalità stagionale nelle 32 città del Sistema di sorveglianza della mortalità giornaliera.

INTRODUCTION: the Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat) estimated an increase in mortality in Italy of 11.3% between January and August 2015 compared to the previous year. During summer 2015, an excess in mortality, attributed to heat waves, was observed. OBJECTIVES: to estimate the excess mortality in 2015 using data from the rapid mortality surveillance system (SiSMG) operational in 32 Italian cities. DESIGN: time series models were used to estimate the excess in mortality among the elderly (65+ years) in 2015 by season (winter and summer). Excess mortality was defined as the difference between observed daily and expected (baseline) mortality for the five previous years (2009- 2013); seasonal mortality in 2015 was compared with mortality observed in 2012, 2013, and 2014. An analysis by cause of death (cardiovascular and respiratory), gender, and age group was carried out in Rome. RESULTS: data confirm an overall estimated excess in mortality of +11% in 2015. Seasonal analysis shows a greater excess in winter (+13%) compared to the summer period (+10%). The excess in winter deaths seems to be attributable to the peak in influenza rather than to low temperatures. Summer excess mortality was attributed to the heat waves of July and August 2015. The lower mortality registered in Italy during summer 2014 (-5.9%) may have contributed to the greater excess registered in 2015. In Rome, cause-specific analysis showed a higher excess among the very old (85+ years) mainly for cardiovascular and respiratory causes in winter. In summer, the excess was observed among both the elderly and in the adult population (35-64 years). CONCLUSION: results suggest the need for a more timely use of mortality data to evaluate the impact of different risk factors. Public health measures targeted to susceptible subgroups should be enhanced (e.g., Heat Prevention Plans, flu vaccination campaigns).

Self reported risk reduction behavior associated with HIV counseling and testing: a comparative analysis of facility- and home-based models in rural Uganda.

Home-based human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) in Uganda is being promoted to increase coverage, in addition to main stay approach of service provision through health facilities. The aim of this study was to compare self reported risk reduction behavior among clients receiving facility and home-based HIV VCT within a rural context. Pre-post intervention client surveys were conducted in November 2007 (baseline) and March 2008 (follow up) in southwestern Uganda. The facility-based VCT intervention was provided to 500 clients and home-based VCT to 494 clients at baseline, in 2 different sub-counties. A total of 76% (759/994) of these clients were interviewed at the follow up visit. The respondents who received facility-based VCT were more likely to report abstinence (adjusted Odds Ratio [aOR]=1.47, 95% CI 1.074, 2.02), reducing multi sexual relationships (aOR=3.23, 95% CI 2.02, 5.16) and more frequent use of condoms (aOR=3.14, 95% CI 1.60, 6.18). However, they were less likely to report, discussing HIV (aOR=0.63, 95% CI 0.46, 0.85) with their sexual partner/s and having sex with only one partner (aOR=0.72, 95% CI 0.519-0.99). While facility-based VCT appears to promote abstinence and condom use home-based VCT on the other hand promotes faithfulness and disclosure. VCT services should, therefore, be provided through both models in a complementary relationship and not as surrogates within given settings.

The First 110,593 COVID-19 Patients Hospitalised in Lombardy: A Regionwide Analysis of Case Characteristics, Risk Factors and Clinical Outcomes.

Objectives: To describe the monthly distribution of COVID-19 hospitalisations, deaths and case-fatality rates (CFR) in Lombardy (Italy) throughout 2020. Methods: We analysed de-identified hospitalisation data comprising all COVID-19-related admissions from 1 February 2020 to 31 December 2020. The overall survival (OS) from time of first hospitalisation was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. We estimated monthly CFRs and performed Cox regression models to measure the effects of potential predictors on OS. Results: Hospitalisation and death peaks occurred in March and November 2020. Patients aged ≥70 years had an up to 180 times higher risk of dying compared to younger patients [70-80: HR 58.10 (39.14-86.22); 80-90: 106.68 (71.01-160.27); ≥90: 180.96 (118.80-275.64)]. Risk of death was higher in patients with one or more comorbidities [1: HR 1.27 (95% CI 1.20-1.35); 2: 1.44 (1.33-1.55); ≥3: 1.73 (1.58-1.90)] and in those with specific conditions (hypertension, diabetes). Conclusion: Our data sheds light on the Italian pandemic scenario, uncovering mechanisms and gaps at regional health system level and, on a larger scale, adding to the body of knowledge needed to inform effective health service planning, delivery, and preparedness in times of crisis.

Facility and home based HIV Counseling and Testing: a comparative analysis of uptake of services by rural communities in southwestern Uganda.

BACKGROUND: In Uganda, public human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) Voluntary Counseling and Testing (VCT) services are mainly provided through the facility based model, although the home based approach is being promoted as a strategy for improving access to VCT. However the uptake of VCT varies according to service delivery model and is influenced by a number of factors. The aim of this study therefore, was to compare predictors for uptake of facility and home based VCT in a rural context. METHODS: A longitudinal study with cross-sectional investigative phases was conducted at two sites (Rugando and Kabingo) in southwestern Uganda between November 2007 (baseline) and March 2008 (follow up). During the baseline visit, facility based VCT was offered at the main health centre in Rugando while home based VCT was offered at the household level in Kabingo and a mixed survey questionnaire administered to the respondents. The results presented in this paper are derived from only the baseline data. RESULTS: Nine hundred ninety four (994) respondents were interviewed, of whom 500 received facility based VCT in Rugando and 494 home based VCT in Kabingo during the baseline visit. The respondents had a mean age of 32.2 years (SD 10.9) and were mainly female (68 percent). Clients who received facility based VCT were less likely to be residents of the more rural households (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR)=0.14, 95% CI 0.07, 0.22). The clients who received home based VCT were less likely to report having an STI symptom (aOR=0.63, 95% CI 0.46, 0.86), and more likely to be worried about discrimination if they contracted AIDS (aOR=1.78, 95% CI 1.22, 2.61). CONCLUSION: The uptake of VCT provided through either the facility or home based models is influenced by client characteristics such as proximity to service delivery points, HIV related symptoms, and fear of discrimination in rural Uganda. Interventions that seek to improve uptake of VCT should provide potential clients with both facility and home based VCT options within a given setting. The clients are then able to select a model for VCT that best fits their characteristics. This is likely to have positive implications for both service coverage and uptake by different sub-groups within particular communities.

Epidemiological assessment of the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in Lombardy. A systematic review.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: After the first cases of COVID-19 detected in Wuhan (China), the virus rapidly spread in the world, so much so that on February 20 the first autochthonous case was officially identified in Italy. However, this person had no apparent history of travel abroad or contact with people tested positive for the virus. For this reason, the aim of this literature review was to reconstruct the epidemiological dynamics of the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Lombardy Region. METHODS: To this end, a systematic review was carried out on PubMed/MEDLINE and EMBASE, and on grey literature. All article assessing incidence, mortality and hospitalizations by Lombardy province and municipality, and the impact of the main containment and organizational measures were considered eligible. In addition, data on general mortality and mortality due to COVID-19, hospital admission, and serological and environmental were also retrieved. RESULTS: From the included studies, it emerged that Lombardy was the first European region in which the virus began to circulate as early as January 2020 (and probably even earlier). Despite the high number of cases and deaths recorded, the reproduction number observed in Lombardy Region was, at the beginning of March 2020, the same (or lower) than in other regions. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, data of the first epidemic wave in Lombardy, compared to other Italian and foreign regions, highlight the extreme criticality of having had the first autochthonous case (and the first substantial outbreaks) when knowledge was still scarce and individual prevention measures were not widespread.

Complex traditional Chinese medicine for poststroke motor dysfunction: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: For its current dimensions, stroke represents the world's primary health challenge. In China stroke is the second most common cause of death. Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) has for many centuries been used, and it is still widely used today in countries of south and east Asia for the treatment of people with stroke. The objective of this systematic review was to evaluate whether complex Traditional Chinese Medicine (cTCM) improves poststroke motor recovery. In particular, we defined cTCM as intervention that included at least acupuncture and Chinese herbal medicine. METHODS: An extensive search including PubMed, EMBASE, CBM, and the Cochrane Library was performed up to December 2007. Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) about cTCM for motor dysfunction of poststroke were searched irrespective of any language. The quality of each trial was assessed according to the Cochrane Reviewers' Handbook 4.2.6. RESULTS: After selection of 11 234 articles, 34 RCTs and quasi-RCTs were included. All these trials were conducted in China and published on Chinese journals. All trials but one reported results in favor of cTCM treatments suggesting a strong publication bias. Because of the significant clinical and methodological heterogeneity, no meta-analysis was performed and thus no cumulative result was obtained pooling data of RCTs. CONCLUSIONS: What appears from this systematic review is that scant data are available to evaluate efficacy of cTCM for poststroke motor dysfunction. Most of the primary studies available for this review were inadequately designed trials characterized by unknown dropout rates and definitional vagueness in outcomes measures. None of the studies approached important end points like death, survival times, rate of dependency, reduction in length of stay in hospital, etc. The key to lead to evidence-based practices is establishing a consensus on standardized relevant outcome measures and then designing and conducting appropriate RCTs that adopt those standards.

Perspective: Improving Nutritional Guidelines for Sustainable Health Policies: Current Status and Perspectives.

A large body of evidence supports the notion that incorrect or insufficient nutrition contributes to disease development. A pivotal goal is thus to understand what exactly is appropriate and what is inappropriate in food ingestion and the consequent nutritional status and health. The effective application of these concepts requires the translation of scientific information into practical approaches that have a tangible and measurable impact at both individual and population levels. The agenda for the future is expected to support available methodology in nutrition research to personalize guideline recommendations, properly grading the quality of the available evidence, promoting adherence to the well-established evidence hierarchy in nutrition, and enhancing strategies for appropriate vetting and transparent reporting that will solidify the recommendations for health promotion. The final goal is to build a constructive coalition among scientists, policy makers, and communication professionals for sustainable health and nutritional policies. Currently, a strong rationale and available data support a personalized dietary approach according to personal variables, including sex and age, circulating metabolic biomarkers, food quality and intake frequency, lifestyle variables such as physical activity, and environmental variables including one's microbiome profile. There is a strong and urgent need to develop a successful commitment among all the stakeholders to define novel and sustainable approaches toward the management of the health value of nutrition at individual and population levels. Moving forward requires adherence to well-established principles of evidence evaluation as well as identification of effective tools to obtain better quality evidence. Much remains to be done in the near future.

Huangqi injection (a traditional Chinese patent medicine) for chronic heart failure: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Chronic heart failure (CHF) is a global public health problem. Therefore, novel and effective drugs that show few side-effects are needed. Early literature studies indicated that Huangqi injection is one of the most commonly used traditional Chinese patent medicines for CHF in China. As a large number of clinical studies has been carried out and published, it is essential to evaluate the effectiveness and safety of Huangqi injection. Therefore, we carried out this systematic review under the support of the framework of the Joint Sino-Italian Laboratory (JoSIL). OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of Huangqi injection for CHF according to the available scientific knowledge. METHODS: An extensive search including PubMed, EMBASE, CBM, the Cochrane Library and Chinese literature databases was performed up to July 2008. Clinical trials regarding Huangqi injection for the treatment of CHF were searched for, irrespective of languages. The quality of each trial was assessed according to the Cochrane Reviewers' Handbook 5.0, and RevMan 5.0 provided by the Cochrane Collaboration and STATA 9.2 were used for data analysis. RESULTS: After selection of 1,205 articles, 62 RCTs and quasi-RCTs conducted in China and published in Chinese journals were included in the review. The methodological quality of the trials was low. In most trials inclusion and exclusion criteria were not specified. Furthermore, only one study evaluated the outcomes for drug efficacy after an adequate period of time. For these reasons and because of the different baseline characteristics we did not conduct a meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Although available studies are not adequate to draw a conclusion on the efficacy and safety of Huangqi injection (a traditional Chinese patent medicine), we hope that our work could provide useful experience on further studies on Huangqi injections. The overall level of TCM clinical research needs to be improved so that the efficacy of TCM can be evaluated by the international community and possibly some TCM can enter into the international market.

Clinical practice of traditional Chinese medicines for chronic heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Chinese medicines have been used for chronic heart failure (CHF) for thousands of years; however, the status of traditional Chinese medicines (TCMs) used for CHF has not been reported. This review was carried out in the framework of a joint Sino-Italian Laboratory. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the baseline of clinical practice of TCMs for CHF, and to provide valuable information for research and clinical practice. METHODS: The authors included articles about the use of TCMs for the treatment of CHF by searching the Chinese Journal Full-text Database (1994 to November 2007). RESULTS: In all, 1029 papers were included, with 239 herbs retrieved from these. The most commonly used herbs included Huangqi (Radix Astragali), Fuling (Poria), Danshen (Radix Salviae Miltiorrhiae), Fuzi (Radix Aconiti Lateralis Preparata) and Tinglizi (Semen Lepidii). Modern Chinese patent medicines (produced by pharmaceutical companies) and traditional prescriptions (comprising several herbs) are the application forms of these drugs. Shenmai, Shengmai and Astragalus injections were the most commonly used Chinese patent medicines. Some classic prescriptions (including Zhenwu decoction, Shengmai powder and Lingguizhugan decoction) were also frequently used. The effectiveness and safety of the TCMs were both satisfactory, and the traditional Chinese medicine and western medicine therapy could significantly improve the clinical effectiveness and reduce some of the adverse reactions from western medicines used alone. CONCLUSION: The authors have acquired overall information about the clinical application of TCMs for CHF. Modern pharmacology has provided limited evidence for the rationality of this clinical use. Further research is needed to provide more evidence.