CTFS-ForestGEO: a worldwide network monitoring forests in an era of global change.

Global change is impacting forests worldwide, threatening biodiversity and ecosystem services including climate regulation. Understanding how forests respond is critical to forest conservation and climate protection. This review describes an international network of 59 long-term forest dynamics research sites (CTFS-ForestGEO) useful for characterizing forest responses to global change. Within very large plots (median size 25 ha), all stems ≥ 1 cm diameter are identified to species, mapped, and regularly recensused according to standardized protocols. CTFS-ForestGEO spans 25 °S-61 °N latitude, is generally representative of the range of bioclimatic, edaphic, and topographic conditions experienced by forests worldwide, and is the only forest monitoring network that applies a standardized protocol to each of the world's major forest biomes. Supplementary standardized measurements at subsets of the sites provide additional information on plants, animals, and ecosystem and environmental variables. CTFS-ForestGEO sites are experiencing multifaceted anthropogenic global change pressures including warming (average 0.61 °C), changes in precipitation (up to ± 30% change), atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulfur compounds (up to 3.8 g N m(-2) yr(-1) and 3.1 g S m(-2) yr(-1)), and forest fragmentation in the surrounding landscape (up to 88% reduced tree cover within 5 km). The broad suite of measurements made at CTFS-ForestGEO sites makes it possible to investigate the complex ways in which global change is impacting forest dynamics. Ongoing research across the CTFS-ForestGEO network is yielding insights into how and why the forests are changing, and continued monitoring will provide vital contributions to understanding worldwide forest diversity and dynamics in an era of global change.

Soil resources and topography shape local tree community structure in tropical forests.

Both habitat filtering and dispersal limitation influence the compositional structure of forest communities, but previous studies examining the relative contributions of these processes with variation partitioning have primarily used topography to represent the influence of the environment. Here, we bring together data on both topography and soil resource variation within eight large (24-50 ha) tropical forest plots, and use variation partitioning to decompose community compositional variation into fractions explained by spatial, soil resource and topographic variables. Both soil resources and topography account for significant and approximately equal variation in tree community composition (9-34% and 5-29%, respectively), and all environmental variables together explain 13-39% of compositional variation within a plot. A large fraction of variation (19-37%) was spatially structured, yet unexplained by the environment, suggesting an important role for dispersal processes and unmeasured environmental variables. For the majority of sites, adding soil resource variables to topography nearly doubled the inferred role of habitat filtering, accounting for variation in compositional structure that would previously have been attributable to dispersal. Our results, illustrated using a new graphical depiction of community structure within these plots, demonstrate the importance of small-scale environmental variation in shaping local community structure in diverse tropical forests around the globe.

A taxonomic comparison of local habitat niches of tropical trees.

The integration of ecology and evolutionary biology requires an understanding of the evolutionary lability in species' ecological niches. For tropical trees, specialization for particular soil resource and topographic conditions is an important part of the habitat niche, influencing the distributions of individual species and overall tree community structure at the local scale. However, little is known about how these habitat niches are related to the evolutionary history of species. We assessed the relationship between taxonomic rank and tree species' soil resource and topographic niches in eight large (24-50 ha) tropical forest dynamics plots. Niche overlap values, indicating the similarity of two species' distributions along soil or topographic axes, were calculated for all pairwise combinations of co-occurring tree species at each study site. Congeneric species pairs often showed greater niche overlap (i.e., more similar niches) than non-congeneric pairs along both soil and topographic axes, though significant effects were found for only five sites based on Mantel tests. No evidence for taxonomic effects was found at the family level. Our results indicate that local habitat niches of trees exhibit varying degrees of phylogenetic signal at different sites, which may have important ramifications for the phylogenetic structure of these communities.

Assessing evidence for a pervasive alteration in tropical tree communities.

In Amazonian tropical forests, recent studies have reported increases in aboveground biomass and in primary productivity, as well as shifts in plant species composition favouring fast-growing species over slow-growing ones. This pervasive alteration of mature tropical forests was attributed to global environmental change, such as an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, nutrient deposition, temperature, drought frequency, and/or irradiance. We used standardized, repeated measurements of over 2 million trees in ten large (16-52 ha each) forest plots on three continents to evaluate the generality of these findings across tropical forests. Aboveground biomass increased at seven of our ten plots, significantly so at four plots, and showed a large decrease at a single plot. Carbon accumulation pooled across sites was significant (+0.24 MgC ha(-1) y(-1), 95% confidence intervals [0.07, 0.39] MgC ha(-1) y(-1)), but lower than reported previously for Amazonia. At three sites for which we had data for multiple census intervals, we found no concerted increase in biomass gain, in conflict with the increased productivity hypothesis. Over all ten plots, the fastest-growing quartile of species gained biomass (+0.33 [0.09, 0.55] % y(-1)) compared with the tree community as a whole (+0.15 % y(-1)); however, this significant trend was due to a single plot. Biomass of slow-growing species increased significantly when calculated over all plots (+0.21 [0.02, 0.37] % y(-1)), and in half of our plots when calculated individually. Our results do not support the hypothesis that fast-growing species are consistently increasing in dominance in tropical tree communities. Instead, they suggest that our plots may be simultaneously recovering from past disturbances and affected by changes in resource availability. More long-term studies are necessary to clarify the contribution of global change to the functioning of tropical forests.

Common spatial patterns of trees in various tropical forests: Small trees are associated with increased diversity at small spatial scales.

Tropical forests are notable for their high species diversity, even on small spatial scales, and right-skewed species and size abundance distributions. The role of individual species as drivers of the spatial organization of diversity in these forests has been explained by several hypotheses and processes, for example, stochastic dilution, negative density dependence, or gap dynamics. These processes leave a signature in spatial distribution of small trees, particularly in the vicinity of large trees, likely having stronger effects on their neighbors. We are exploring species diversity patterns within the framework of various diversity-generating hypotheses using individual species-area relationships. We used the data from three tropical forest plots (Wanang-Papua New Guinea, Barro Colorado Island-Panama, and Sinharaja-Sri Lanka) and included also the saplings (DBH ≥ 1 cm). Resulting cross-size patterns of species richness and evenness reflect the dynamics of saplings affected by the distribution of large trees. When all individuals with DBH ≥1 cm are included, ~50% of all tree species from the 25- or 50-ha plot can be found within 35 m radius of an individual tree. For all trees, 72%-78% of species were identified as species richness accumulators, having more species present in their surroundings than expected by null models. This pattern was driven by small trees as the analysis of DBH >10 cm trees showed much lower proportion of accumulators, 14%-65% of species identified as richness repellers and had low richness of surrounding small trees. Only 11%-26% of species had lower species evenness than was expected by null models. High proportions of species richness accumulators were probably due to gap dynamics and support Janzen-Connell hypothesis driven by competition or top-down control by pathogens and herbivores. Observed species diversity patterns show the importance of including small tree size classes in analyses of the spatial organization of diversity.

Climate sensitive size-dependent survival in tropical trees.

Survival rates of large trees determine forest biomass dynamics. Survival rates of small trees have been linked to mechanisms that maintain biodiversity across tropical forests. How species survival rates change with size offers insight into the links between biodiversity and ecosystem function across tropical forests. We tested patterns of size-dependent tree survival across the tropics using data from 1,781 species and over 2 million individuals to assess whether tropical forests can be characterized by size-dependent life-history survival strategies. We found that species were classifiable into four 'survival modes' that explain life-history variation that shapes carbon cycling and the relative abundance within forests. Frequently collected functional traits, such as wood density, leaf mass per area and seed mass, were not generally predictive of the survival modes of species. Mean annual temperature and cumulative water deficit predicted the proportion of biomass of survival modes, indicating important links between evolutionary strategies, climate and carbon cycling. The application of survival modes in demographic simulations predicted biomass change across forest sites. Our results reveal globally identifiable size-dependent survival strategies that differ across diverse systems in a consistent way. The abundance of survival modes and interaction with climate ultimately determine forest structure, carbon storage in biomass and future forest trajectories.

Analyzing the spatial structure of a Sri Lankan tree species with multiple scales of clustering.

Clustering at multiple critical scales may be common for plants since many different factors and processes may cause clustering. This is especially true for tropical rain forests for which theories explaining species coexistence and community structure rest heavily on spatial patterns. We used point pattern analysis to analyze the spatial structure of Shorea congestiflora, a dominant species in a 25-ha forest dynamics plot in a rain forest at Sinharaja World Heritage Site (Sri Lanka), which apparently shows clustering at several scales. We developed cluster processes incorporating two critical scales of clustering for exploring the spatial structure of S. congestiflora and interpret it in relation to factors such as competition, dispersal limitation, recruitment limitation, and Janzen-Connell effects. All size classes showed consistent large-scale clustering with a cluster radius of approximately 25 m. Inside the larger clusters, small-scale clusters with a radius of 8 m were evident for recruits and saplings, weak for intermediates, and disappeared for adults. The pattern of all trees could be divided into two independent patterns: a random pattern (nearest neighbor distance > 8 m) comprising approximately 12% of the trees and a nested double-cluster pattern. This finding suggests two independent recruitment and/or seed dispersal mechanisms. Saplings were several times as abundant as recruits and may accumulate several recruit generations. Recruits were only weakly associated with adults and occupied about half of the large-scale clusters, but saplings almost all. This is consistent with recruitment limitation. For approximately 70% (95%) of all juveniles the nearest adult was less than 26 m away (53 m), suggesting a dispersal limitation that may also be related to the critical large-scale clustering. Our example illustrates the manner in which the use of a specific and complex null hypothesis of spatial structure in point pattern analysis can help us better understand the biology of a species and generate specific hypotheses to be further investigated in the field.

Testing metabolic ecology theory for allometric scaling of tree size, growth and mortality in tropical forests.

The theory of metabolic ecology predicts specific relationships among tree stem diameter, biomass, height, growth and mortality. As demographic rates are important to estimates of carbon fluxes in forests, this theory might offer important insights into the global carbon budget, and deserves careful assessment. We assembled data from 10 old-growth tropical forests encompassing censuses of 367 ha and > 1.7 million trees to test the theory's predictions. We also developed a set of alternative predictions that retained some assumptions of metabolic ecology while also considering how availability of a key limiting resource, light, changes with tree size. Our results show that there are no universal scaling relationships of growth or mortality with size among trees in tropical forests. Observed patterns were consistent with our alternative model in the one site where we had the data necessary to evaluate it, and were inconsistent with the predictions of metabolic ecology in all forests.

Comparing tropical forest tree size distributions with the predictions of metabolic ecology and equilibrium models.

Tropical forests vary substantially in the densities of trees of different sizes and thus in above-ground biomass and carbon stores. However, these tree size distributions show fundamental similarities suggestive of underlying general principles. The theory of metabolic ecology predicts that tree abundances will scale as the -2 power of diameter. Demographic equilibrium theory explains tree abundances in terms of the scaling of growth and mortality. We use demographic equilibrium theory to derive analytic predictions for tree size distributions corresponding to different growth and mortality functions. We test both sets of predictions using data from 14 large-scale tropical forest plots encompassing censuses of 473 ha and > 2 million trees. The data are uniformly inconsistent with the predictions of metabolic ecology. In most forests, size distributions are much closer to the predictions of demographic equilibrium, and thus, intersite variation in size distributions is explained partly by intersite variation in growth and mortality.

Nonrandom processes maintain diversity in tropical forests.

An ecological community's species diversity tends to erode through time as a result of stochastic extinction, competitive exclusion, and unstable host-enemy dynamics. This erosion of diversity can be prevented over the short term if recruits are highly diverse as a result of preferential recruitment of rare species or, alternatively, if rare species survive preferentially, which increases diversity as the ages of the individuals increase. Here, we present census data from seven New and Old World tropical forest dynamics plots that all show the latter pattern. Within local areas, the trees that survived were as a group more diverse than those that were recruited or those that died. The larger (and therefore on average older) survivors were more diverse within local areas than the smaller survivors. When species were rare in a local area, they had a higher survival rate than when they were common, resulting in enrichment for rare species and increasing diversity with age and size class in these complex ecosystems.