RESUMO
It is essential to increase food production to meet the projected population increase while reducing environmental loads. Biological nitrification inhibition (BNI)-enabled wheat genetic stocks are under development through chromosome engineering by transferring chromosomal regions carrying the BNI trait from a wild relative (Leymus racemosus (Lam.) Tzvelev) into elite wheat varieties; field evaluation of these newly developed BNI-wheat varieties has started. Ten years from now, BNI-enabled elite wheat varieties are expected to be deployed in wheat production systems. This study aims to evaluate the impacts of introducing these novel genetic solutions on life cycle greenhouse gas (LC-GHG) emissions, nitrogen (N) fertilizer application rates and N-use efficiency (NUE). Scenarios were developed based on evidence of nitrification inhibition and nitrous oxide (N2O) emission reduction by BNI crops and by synthetic nitrification inhibitors (SNIs), as both BNI-wheat and SNIs slow the nitrification process. Scenarios including BNI-wheat will inhibit nitrification by 30% by 2030 and 40% by 2050. It was assumed that N fertilizer application rates can potentially be reduced, as N losses through N2O emissions, leaching and runoff are expected to be lower. The results show that the impacts from BNI-wheat with 40% nitrification inhibition by 2050 are assessed to be positive: a 15.0% reduction in N fertilization, a 15.9% reduction in LC-GHG emissions, and a 16.7% improvement in NUE at the farm level. An increase in ammonia volatilization had little influence on the reduction in LC-GHG emissions. The GHG emissions associated with N fertilizer production and soil N2O emissions can be reduced between 7.3 and 9.5% across the wheat-harvested area worldwide by BNI-wheat with 30% and 40% nitrification inhibition, respectively. However, the present study recommends further technological developments (e.g. further developments in BNI-wheat and the development of more powerful SNIs) to reduce environmental impacts while improving wheat production to meet the increasing worldwide demand.