Visual impairment as a predictor for deterioration in functioning: the Leiden 85-plus Study.

BACKGROUND: Visual impairment frequently occurs amongst older people. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the predictive value of visual impairment on functioning, quality of life and mortality in people aged 85 years. METHODS: From the Leiden 85-plus Study, 548 people aged 85 years were eligible for this study. Visual acuity was measured at baseline by Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study charts (ETDRS). According to the visual acuity (VA) three groups were made, defined as no (VA > 0.7), moderate (0.5 ≤ VA ≤ 0.7) or severe visual impairment (VA < 0.5). Quality of life, physical, cognitive, psychological and social functioning were measured annually for 5 years. For mortality, participants were followed until the age of 95. RESULTS: At baseline, participants with visual impairment scored lower on physical, cognitive, psychological and social functioning and quality of life (p < 0.001). Compared to participants with no visual impairment, participants with moderate and severe visual impairment had an accelerated deterioration in basic activities of daily living (respectively 0.27-point (p = 0.017) and 0.35 point (p = 0.018)). In addition, compared to participants with no visual impairment, the mortality risk was 1.83 (95% CI 1.43, 2.35) for participants with severe visual impairment. DISCUSSION: In very older adults, visual impairment predicts accelerated deterioration in physical functioning. In addition, severely visually impaired adults had an increased mortality risk. A pro-active attitude, focussing on preventing and treating visual impairment could possibly contribute to the improvement of physical independence, wellbeing and successful aging in very old age.

Positive health during the COVID-19 pandemic: a survey among community-dwelling older individuals in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) reached the Netherlands in February 2020. To minimize the spread of the virus, the Dutch government announced an "intelligent lockdown". Older individuals were urged to socially isolate completely, because they are at risk of a severe disease course. Although isolation reduces the medical impact of the virus, the non-medical impact should also be considered. AIM: To investigate the impact of COVID-19 pandemic and associated restrictive measures on the six dimensions of Positive Health in community-dwelling older individuals living in the Netherlands, and to identify differences within subgroups. METHODS: In May/June 2020, community-dwelling older individuals aged ≥ 65 years completed an online survey based on Huber's model of Positive Health. Positive Health was measured regarding the appreciation of the six dimensions (categorized as poor/satisfactory/excellent) and a comparison with a year before (categorized as decreased/unchanged/increased) using frequencies (%) and a chi-square test. RESULTS: 834 older individuals participated (51% women, 38% aged ≥ 76 years, 35% living alone, 16% self-rated poor health). Most respondents assessed their bodily functions, mental well-being and daily functioning as satisfactory, their meaningfulness and quality of life (QoL) as excellent, and their social participation as poor. 12% of the respondents reported a deterioration of 4-6 dimensions and 73% in 1-3 dimensions, compared to the past year. Deterioration was most frequently experienced in the dimension social participation (73%), the dimension mental well-being was most frequently improved (37%) and quality of life was in 71% rated as unchanged. Women more often observed a deterioration of 4-6 dimensions than men (15% vs. 8%, p = 0.001), and individuals with self-rated poor health more often than individuals with self-rated good health (22% vs. 10%, p < 0.001). Older individuals living alone experienced more frequently a decrease in meaningfulness compared to older individuals living together. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic and associated restrictive measures had a substantial impact on all six dimensions of Positive Health in community-dwelling older individuals, especially in women, respondents living alone and respondents with self-rated poor general health.

HPV type-specific distribution among family members and linen in households of cutaneous wart patients.

BACKGROUND: Common and plantar warts are caused by human papillomaviruses (HPV). Mode of transmission of wart HPVs within families is largely unknown. OBJECTIVE: To demonstrate similarity of HPV type(s) among wart cases, family members and household linen. METHODS: In a cross-sectional study, swabs taken from 123 warts and foreheads of 62 index patients and 157 family members and from 58 kitchen towels and 59 bathroom mats were tested for DNA of 23 cutaneous wart-associated HPV types. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) were used to estimate the chance of detecting the same HPV type as was found in the index patients on the family contacts and on the kitchen towels and bathroom mats. RESULTS: HPV1, HPV2, HPV27 and HPV57 were the most prevalent types in the warts of the index patients. Altogether, 60 (42.3%) of the 142 family members without warts had HPV DNA on their foreheads. When HPV1 and HPV2 were found in the warts, these types were also frequently (>50%) found on the foreheads of index patients and their family members, as well as on the kitchen towels and the bathroom mats. HPV27 and HPV57 were less frequently found (<25%) on foreheads and linen. No associations were found for age, sex and site of HPV DNA presence. CONCLUSION: Dissemination of skin wart-causing HPV types, from wart cases to household contacts and linen, such as kitchen towels and bathroom mats, is more likely for HPV1 and HPV2 than for HPV27 and HPV57. The role of towels and bathroom mats in HPV transmission deserves further investigation.

Predictive value of traditional risk factors for cardiovascular disease in older people: A systematic review.

With increasing age, associations between traditional risk factors (TRFs) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) shift. It is unknown which mid-life risk factors remain relevant predictors for CVD in older people. We systematically searched PubMed and EMBASE on August 16th 2019 for studies assessing predictive ability of >1 of fourteen TRFs for fatal and non-fatal CVD, in the general population aged 60+. We included 12 studies, comprising 11 unique cohorts. TRF were evaluated in 2 to 11 cohorts, and retained in 0-70% of the cohorts: age (70%), diabetes (64%), male sex (57%), systolic blood pressure (SBP) (50%), smoking (36%), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL) (33%), left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) (33%), total cholesterol (22%), diastolic blood pressure (20%), antihypertensive medication use (AHM) (20%), body mass index (BMI) (0%), hypertension (0%), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (0%). In studies with low to moderate risk of bias, systolic blood pressure (SBP) (80%), smoking (80%) and HDL cholesterol (60%) were more often retained. Model performance was moderate with C-statistics ranging from 0.61 to 0.77. Compared to middle-aged adults, in people aged 60+ different risk factors predict CVD and current prediction models perform only moderate at best. According to most studies, age, sex and diabetes seem valuable predictors of CVD in old-age. SBP, HDL cholesterol and smoking may also have predictive value. Other blood pressure and cholesterol related variables, BMI, and LVH seem of very limited or no additional value. Without competing risk analysis, predictors are overestimated.

Association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and change in bone mineral density in prospective cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Subclinical hyperthyroidism (SHyper) has been associated with increased risk of hip and other fractures, but the linking mechanisms remain unclear. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and bone loss. METHODS: Individual participant data analysis was performed after a systematic literature search in MEDLINE/EMBASE (1946-2016). Two reviewers independently screened and selected prospective cohorts providing baseline thyroid status and serial bone mineral density (BMD) measurements. We classified thyroid status as euthyroidism (thyroid-stimulating hormone [TSH] 0.45-4.49 mIU/L), SHyper (TSH < 0.45 mIU/L) and subclinical hypothyroidism (SHypo, TSH ≥ 4.50-19.99 mIU/L) both with normal free thyroxine levels. Our primary outcome was annualized percentage BMD change (%ΔBMD) from serial dual X-ray absorptiometry scans of the femoral neck, total hip and lumbar spine, obtained from multivariable regression in a random-effects two-step approach. RESULTS: Amongst 5458 individuals (median age 72 years, 49.1% women) from six prospective cohorts, 451 (8.3%) had SHypo and 284 (5.2%) had SHyper. During 36 569 person-years of follow-up, those with SHyper had a greater annual bone loss at the femoral neck versus euthyroidism: %ΔBMD = -0.18 (95% CI: -0.34, -0.02; I2 = 0%), with a nonstatistically significant pattern at the total hip: %ΔBMD = -0.14 (95% CI: -0.38, 0.10; I2 = 53%), but not at the lumbar spine: %ΔBMD = 0.03 (95% CI: -0.30, 0.36; I2 = 25%); especially participants with TSH < 0.10 mIU/L showed an increased bone loss in the femoral neck (%Δ BMD = -0.59; [95% CI: -0.99, -0.19]) and total hip region (%ΔBMD = -0.46 [95% CI: -1.05, -0.13]). In contrast, SHypo was not associated with bone loss at any site. CONCLUSION: Amongst adults, SHyper was associated with increased femoral neck bone loss, potentially contributing to the increased fracture risk.

Study protocol: a randomised controlled trial on the clinical effects of levothyroxine treatment for subclinical hypothyroidism in people aged 80 years and over.

BACKGROUND: Subclinical hypothyroidism is common in older people and its contribution to health and disease needs to be elucidated further. Observational and clinical trial data on the clinical effects of subclinical hypothyroidism in persons aged 80 years and over is inconclusive, with some studies suggesting harm and some suggesting benefits, translating into equipoise whether levothyroxine therapy provides clinical benefits. This manuscript describes the study protocol for the Institute for Evidence-Based Medicine in Old Age (IEMO) 80-plus thyroid trial to generate the necessary evidence base. METHODS: The IEMO 80-plus thyroid trial was explicitly designed as an ancillary experiment to the Thyroid hormone Replacement for Untreated older adults with Subclinical hypothyroidism randomised placebo controlled Trial (TRUST) with a near identical protocol and shared research infrastructure. Outcomes will be presented separately for the IEMO and TRUST 80-plus groups, as well as a pre-planned combined analysis of the 145 participants included in the IEMO trial and the 146 participants from the TRUST thyroid trial aged 80 years and over. The IEMO 80-plus thyroid trial is a multi-centre randomised double-blind placebo-controlled parallel group trial of levothyroxine treatment in community-dwelling participants aged 80 years and over with persistent subclinical hypothyroidism (TSH ≥4.6 and ≤ 19.9 mU/L and fT4 within laboratory reference ranges). Participants are randomised to levothyroxine 25 or 50 micrograms daily or matching placebo with dose titrations according to TSH levels, for a minimum follow-up of one and a maximum of three years. Primary study endpoints: hypothyroid physical symptoms and tiredness on the thyroid-related quality of life patient-reported outcome (ThyPRO) at one year. Secondary endpoints: generic quality of life, executive cognitive function, handgrip strength, functional ability, blood pressure, weight, body mass index, and mortality. Adverse events will be recorded with specific interest on cardiovascular endpoints such as atrial fibrillation and heart failure. DISCUSSION: The combined analysis of participants in the IEMO 80-plus thyroid trial with the participants aged over 80 in the TRUST trial will provide the largest experimental evidence base on multimodal effects of levothyroxine treatment in 80-plus persons to date. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Nederlands (Dutch) Trial Register: NTR3851 (12-02-2013), EudraCT: 2012-004160-22 (17-02-2013), ABR-41259.058.13 (12-02-2013).

Drug-related problems identified during medication review before and after the introduction of a clinical decision support system.

WHAT IS KNOWN AND OBJECTIVE: To facilitate the identification of drug-related problems (DRPs) during medication review, several tools have been developed. Explicit criteria, like Beers criteria or STOPP (Screening Tool of Older Peoples' Prescriptions) and START (Screening Tool to Alert doctors to Right Treatment) criteria, can easily be integrated into a clinical decision support system (CDSS). The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of adding a CDSS to medication review software on identifying and solving DRPs in daily pharmacy practice. METHODS: Pre- to post-analysis of clinical medication reviews (CMRs) performed by 121 pharmacies in 2012 and 2013, before and after the introduction of CDSS into medication review software. Mean number of DRPs per patient, type of DRPs and their resolution rates were compared in the pharmacies pre- and post-CDSS using paired t tests. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: In total, 9151 DRPs were identified in 3100 patients pre-CDSS and 15 268 DRPs were identified in 4303 patients post-CDSS. The mean number of identified DRPs per patient (aggregated per pharmacy) was higher after the introduction of CDSS (3.2 vs 3.6 P < .01). The resolution rate was lower post-CDSS (50% vs 44%; P < .01), which overall resulted in 1.6 resolved DRPs per patient in both groups (P = .93). After the introduction of CDSS, 41% of DRPs were detected by the CDSS. The resolution rate of DRPs generated by CDSS was lower than of DRPs identified without the help of CDSS (29% vs 55%; P < .01). The two most prevalent DRP types were "Overtreatment" and "Suboptimal therapy" in both groups. The prevalence of "Overtreatment" was equal in both groups (mean DRPs per patient: 0.84 vs 0.77; P = .22), and "Suboptimal therapy" was more frequently identified post-CDSS (mean DRPs per patient: 0.54 vs 1.1; P < .01). WHAT IS NEW AND CONCLUSION: The introduction of CDSS to medication review software generated additional DRPs with a lower resolution rate. Structural assessment including a patient interview elicited the most relevant DRPs. Further development of CDSS with more specific alerts is needed to be clinical relevant.

High prevalence of cutaneous warts in elementary school children and the ubiquitous presence of wart-associated human papillomavirus on clinically normal skin.

BACKGROUND: One-third of Dutch primary school children have cutaneous warts; each year around 20% of them seek medical treatment. However, little is known about the epidemiology of the types of human papillomavirus (HPV) causing these warts. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the distribution of cutaneous wart-associated HPV types in three primary school classes by analysing skin swabs taken from warts, and the forehead, hand dorsum and sole of the foot of included children. METHODS: Using the hyperkeratotic skin lesion polymerase chain reaction/multiplex genotyping assay, each swab sample was used to genotype for 23 cutaneous wart-associated HPV types. RESULTS: Thirty-one (44%) of the 71 children had a total of 69 warts, with a maximum of six warts per child. In the wart swabs, HPV2, HPV27 and HPV57, members of Alphapapillomavirus species 4, were most frequently detected (27%, 32% and 14%, respectively), whereas HPV1 was only found in two plantar warts. The prevalence of HPV carriage, detected in swabs of clinically normal skin of the forehead, left hand and left sole was 80%, with the most prevalent types being HPV1 (59%), HPV2 (42%), HPV63 (25%) and HPV27 (21%). CONCLUSIONS: Cutaneous wart-associated HPV types were highly prevalent in primary school children, but did not correlate with the HPV types in warts. In contrast to the existing literature, HPV1 was frequently detected on clinically normal skin but was much less frequent in warts.

Completeness of medication reviews provided by community pharmacists.

WHAT IS KNOWN AND OBJECTIVES: Little is known about the ability of community pharmacists who are inexperienced in medication review to identify drug-related problems (DRPs). The objective of our study was to investigate the completeness of DRPs in terms of number, type and clinical relevance identified by community pharmacists when performing home medication reviews (HMRs). METHODS: This is a cross-sectional study within the intervention arm of a randomized controlled trial among community-dwelling patients (≥65 years, ≥5 drugs) in ten Dutch community pharmacies. Community pharmacists, who were inexperienced in medication review, received 2-day training in medication review. These pharmacists interviewed patients at home about their medicines, identified potential DRPs and made recommendations in combination with medication and clinical records. Expert reviewers completed the number of potential DRPs and recommendations by reviewing all available information, including patient interview reports. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: In 155 patients, community pharmacists identified a mean of 3·6 (SD 2·8) potential DRPs per patient and expert reviewers added 6·5 (SD 3·2) DRPs. Community pharmacists formulated 2·6 (SD 2·3) recommendations per patient and reviewers added 7·5 (SD 3·3) recommendations. Community pharmacists identified a higher proportion of clinically relevant DRPs compared with expert reviewers, as assessed by DRPs with high priority [OR = 1·8 (95% CI 1·4-2·2)], DRPs associated with recommendations for drug change [OR = 1·9 (95% CI 1·5-2·3)] and implemented recommendations for drug change [OR = 2·1 (95% CI 1·6-2·7)]. WHAT IS NEW AND CONCLUSION: This study shows that the completeness of medication reviews by inexperienced community pharmacists with limited training could be improved, although they identified a higher proportion of potentially clinically relevant DRPs compared with expert reviewers. The results suggest that community pharmacists with limited experience in medication review may need more intensive post-graduate training.

Towards optimal use of antithrombotic therapy of people with cancer at the end of life: A research protocol for the development and implementation of the SERENITY shared decision support tool.

BACKGROUND: Even though antithrombotic therapy has probably little or even negative effects on the well-being of people with cancer during their last year of life, deprescribing antithrombotic therapy at the end of life is rare in practice. It is often continued until death, possibly resulting in excess bleeding, an increased disease burden and higher healthcare costs. METHODS: The SERENITY consortium comprises researchers and clinicians from eight European countries with specialties in different clinical fields, epidemiology and psychology. SERENITY will use a comprehensive approach combining a realist review, flash mob research, epidemiological studies, and qualitative interviews. The results of these studies will be used in a Delphi process to reach a consensus on the optimal design of the shared decision support tool. Next, the shared decision support tool will be tested in a randomised controlled trial. A targeted implementation and dissemination plan will be developed to enable the use of the SERENITY tool across Europe, as well as its incorporation in clinical guidelines and policies. The entire project is funded by Horizon Europe. RESULTS: SERENITY will develop an information-driven shared decision support tool that will facilitate treatment decisions regarding the appropriate use of antithrombotic therapy in people with cancer at the end of life. CONCLUSIONS: We aim to develop an intervention that guides the appropriate use of antithrombotic therapy, prevents bleeding complications, and saves healthcare costs. Hopefully, usage of the tool leads to enhanced empowerment and improved quality of life and treatment satisfaction of people with advanced cancer and their care givers.

The contribution of patient interviews to the identification of drug-related problems in home medication review.

WHAT IS KNOWN AND OBJECTIVE: To determine to what extent patient interviews contribute to the identification of drug-related problems (DRPs) in home medication reviews, in terms of number, type and clinical relevance. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study within the intervention arm of a randomized controlled trial. Patients were recruited from 10 Dutch community pharmacies. Patients were eligible if they were home-dwelling, aged 65 years and over and used five or more different drugs, including at least one cardiovascular or antidiabetic drug. The community pharmacist interviewed the patient at home about the medicines and identified potential DRPs in combination with medication and clinical records. This medication review was assessed and modified by an independent pharmacist reviewers' panel. Outcomes were the number and type of DRPs and recommendations and percentage of clinical relevant DRPs. Clinical relevance of DRPs was assessed by DRPs assigned a high priority, DRPs followed by recommendations for drug change and DRPs followed by implemented recommendations for drug change. RESULTS: A total of 1565 potential DRPs and recommendations (10 per patient).were identified for 155 patients (median age, 76 years; 54% women). Fifty-eight per cent of all recommendations involved a drug change; 27% of all DRPs were identified during patient interviews and 74% from medication and clinical records. Compared to DRPs identified from patient medication and clinical records, DRPs identified during patient interviews were more frequently assigned a high priority (OR = 1.8 [1.4-2.2]), were more frequently associated with recommendations for drug change (OR = 2.4 [1.9-3.1]) and were implemented recommendations for drug change (OR = 2.8 [2.1-3.7]). WHAT IS NEW AND CONCLUSION: This study shows that more than a quarter of all DRPs were identified during patient interviews. DRPs identified during patient interviews were more frequently assigned a higher clinical relevance.

Determinants of absence of osteoarthritis in old age.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate factors associated with absence of osteoarthritis (OA). METHODS: In 82 well-functioning 90-year-old participants from a cross-sectional birth cohort, radiographs of hands, hips, and knees were acquired and scored according to the Kellgren and Lawrence (K-L) method for determining OA. A score of ≥ 2 was considered as OA. 'Free from OA' was defined as no hip or knee OA and less than three hand joints with OA. Logistic regression analyses were used to investigate associations with absence of OA. RESULTS: Absence of hip, knee, and hand OA was seen in 63, 51, and 29% of participants, respectively. Joints on the left and right side of the body were equally affected. Sixteen per cent of 90-year old participants were 'free from OA'. Absence of knee OA was associated with being male. A family history of finger nodes was negatively associated with absence of hip and hand OA. Body mass index (BMI) was negatively associated with 'free from OA', and also with absence of hip and knee OA. A history of heavy occupational work was associated with 'free from OA' [odds ratio (OR) 7.2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3-39.9] and with absence of hand OA in particular (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.0-7.1). CONCLUSIONS: In 90-year-olds, absence of OA is associated with male sex, a normal BMI, absence of familial predisposition for OA, and, contrary to our expectation, heavy work. Further research in protective genetic factors is needed.

Low innate production of interleukin-1beta and interleukin-6 is associated with the absence of osteoarthritis in old age.

OBJECTIVE: We investigated whether innate differences in cytokine response were associated with the absence of osteoarthritis (OA) in old age. DESIGN: In 82 participants from a cross-sectional birth cohort, radiographs of hands, hips and knees were taken at the age of 90 years. OA was defined as a Kellgren-Lawrence score of at least two. "Free from OA" was defined at patient level as absence of hip and knee OA, and presence of OA in maximally two hand joints. The innate cytokine response was determined in whole-blood samples upon stimulation with lipopolysaccharide. Logistic regression analyses were used to investigate associations between absence of OA in relation to tertiles of interleukin (IL)-1beta, IL-6, tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha, IL-1 receptor antagonist (RA) and IL-10. Adjustments were made for gender and body mass index. RESULTS: Sixteen percent of the participants were "free from OA". Subjects in the lowest tertile of Il-1beta production had a 11-fold increased chance to be free of OA [odds ratio (OR) 11.3, confidence intervals (CI) 95% 1.1-115.9], subjects in the lowest tertile of IL-6 production had an almost 7-fold increased chance to be free of OA (OR 6.7, 95% CI 1.1-41.2). Absence of hand OA was associated with low innate production of IL-6 and IL-1RA, absence of hip OA was associated with low innate IL-1beta production. No associations were found for TNF-alpha and IL-10. CONCLUSIONS: Low innate capacity to produce the pro-inflammatory cytokines IL-1beta and IL-6 is associated with the absence of OA in old age.

The APOP screener and clinical outcomes in older hospitalised internal medicine patients.

BACKGROUND: Acutely hospitalised older patients with indications related to internal medicine have high risks of adverse outcomes. We investigated whether risk stratification using the Acutely Presenting Older Patient (APOP) screening tool associates with clinical outcomes in this patient group. METHODS: Patients aged ≥ 70 years who visited the Emergency Department (ED) and were acutely hospitalised for internal medicine were followed prospectively. The APOP screener assesses demographics, physical and cognitive function at ED presentation, and predicts 3-month mortality and functional decline in the older ED population. Patients with a predicted risk ≥ 45% were considered 'high risk'. Clinical outcome was hospital length of stay (LOS), and adverse outcomes were mortality and functional decline, 3 and 12 months after hospitalisation. RESULTS: We included 319 patients, with a median age of 80 (IQR 74-85) years, of whom 94 (29.5%) were categorised as 'high risk' by the APOP screener. These patients had a longer hospital LOS compared to 'low risk' patients 5 (IQR 3-10) vs. 3 (IQR 1-7) days, respectively; p = 0.006). At 3 months, adverse outcomes were more frequent in 'high risk' patients compared to 'low risk' patients (59.6% vs. 34.7%, respectively; p < 0.001). At 12 months, adverse outcomes (67.0% vs. 46.2%, respectively; p = 0.001) and mortality (48.9% vs. 28.0%, respectively; p < 0.001) were greater in 'high risk' compared to 'low risk' patients. CONCLUSION: The APOP screener identifies acutely hospitalised internal medicine patients at high risk for poor short and long-term outcomes. Early risk stratification at admission could aid in individualised treatment decisions to optimise outcomes for older patients.

Warts in primary schoolchildren: prevalence and relation with environmental factors.

BACKGROUND: Warts are very common in primary schoolchildren. However, knowledge on wart epidemiology and causes of wart transmission is scarce. OBJECTIVES: To determine the prevalence of warts in primary schoolchildren and to examine the relation with environmental factors in order to provide direction for well-founded recommendations on wart prevention. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, the hands and feet of 1465 children aged 4-12 years from four Dutch primary schools were examined for the presence of warts. In addition, the children's parents completed a questionnaire about possible environmental risk factors for warts. RESULTS: Thirty-three per cent of primary schoolchildren had warts (participation rate 96%). Nine per cent had hand warts, 20% had plantar warts and 4% had both hand and plantar warts. Parental questionnaires (response rate 76%) showed that environmental factors connected to barefoot activities, public showers or swimming pool visits were not related to the presence of warts. An increased risk of the presence of warts was found in children with a family member with warts [odds ratio (OR) 1.9, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3-2.6] and in children where there was a high prevalence of warts in the school class (OR per 10% increase in wart prevalence in school class 1.6, 95% CI 1.5-1.8). CONCLUSIONS: One-third of primary schoolchildren have warts. This study does not find support for generally accepted wart prevention recommendations, such as wearing protective footwear in communal showers and swimming pool changing areas. Rather, recommendations should focus on ways to limit the transmission of wart viruses within families and school classes.

Low blood pressure in the very old, a consequence of imminent heart failure: the Leiden 85-plus Study.

Low blood pressure in the very old has been associated with organ dysfunction and excess mortality but the underlying mechanism has yet to be elucidated. We hypothesized that cardiac dysfunction contributes to low blood pressure in the very old. We invited a convenience sample consisting of 82 participants all aged 90 years from a population-based cohort study in the very old. Blood pressure was measured twice, and all but one underwent echocardiography to assess cardiac dimensions and functional cardiac parameters. Some 47 participants were free from haemodynamically significant valvular disease and were included in the present analyses. There were low values for mean cardiac output (2.04 l(-1) min(-1) m(-2), s.e. 0.40) and mean stroke volume (31.4 ml m(-2), s.e. 7.7). For every 10-mm Hg decrease in systolic blood pressure, cardiac output was 0.09 l(-1) min(-1) m(-2) lower (s.e. 0.04, P=0.019), and stroke volume was 1.58 ml m(-2) lower (s.e. 0.68, P=0.024). Mean left ventricular ejection fraction was normal and 2.39% (s.e. 1.16, P=0.046) higher for each 10-mm Hg decrease in systolic blood pressure. Mean left ventricular dimensions were normal but the E/A ratio was reduced (0.68, s.d. 0.21), indicating diastolic dysfunction. In conclusion, among the oldest old, low systolic blood pressure correlates with low cardiac output. Systolic ventricular function is not impaired.

Combined impact of future trends on healthcare utilisation of older people: A Delphi study.

PURPOSE: To explore the combined effect of trends in older people on their future healthcare utilisation. METHODS: A Delphi study consisting of two rounds was conducted. The heterogeneous expert panel (n = 16) in the field of elderly care rated the effect of combinations of trends in the Netherlands on the use of seven healthcare services: i.e. informal, home, general practitioner, acute, specialist, nursing home and mental health care. The percentage and direction of the overall consensus, for the different health services, and for three main trends were analysed. RESULTS: Experts reached consensus in 57 of 92 ratings (62%). Taking into account the interaction between trends, they expected an extra increase for informal, home, and general practitioner care, but no additional effect of interaction for specialist and acute care. Combinations that included trends leading to less support were expected to lead to an extra increase in utilisation. CONCLUSIONS: Experts expect that interaction between trends will lead to an extra increase in the use of general practitioner, home, and informal care. This increase is mainly the result of interaction with trends leading to less support for older persons. The present results show the need to take the effect of interaction into account when designing new health policy and in research on future healthcare utilisation.

Incidence and predictive factors of lower respiratory tract infections among the very elderly in the general population. The Leiden 85-plus Study.

OBJECTIVES: To target preventive strategies in old age, which of the very elderly are predisposed to developing lower respiratory tract infections was investigated. DESIGN: Prospective observational follow-up study. SETTING: General population. PARTICIPANTS: Unselected cohort of 587 participants aged 85 years in Leiden, The Netherlands. MEASUREMENTS: As reported in the literature, predictive factors were selected and assessed at baseline. During a 5 year follow-up period, information on the development of lower respiratory tract infections was obtained from general practitioners or nursing home physicians. Associations between predictive factors were analysed with Cox regression, and population attributable risks were calculated. RESULTS: The incidence of lower respiratory tract infections among persons aged 85-90 years was 94 (95% CI 80-108) per 1000 person years. After multivariate analysis, history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), smoking, oral glucocorticosteroid use, severe cognitive impairment, history of stroke and declined functional status remained independently associated with the occurrence of lower respiratory tract infections. Smoking was the greatest contributor with a population attributable risk of 32%. CONCLUSION: In the very old, smoking, COPD, stroke and declined functional status were associated with the occurrence of lower respiratory tract infections and provide a means of targeting patients at risk of severe health complications.

[Cardiovascular prevention in the over-80 age group is not beneficial]. / Geen nut van cardiovasculaire preventie bij hoogbejaarden.

The high prevalence and incidence of cardiovascular disease in the oldest old justify consideration of both primary and secondary prevention measures in this age group. However, evidence for the effectiveness of any preventive intervention is lacking. Regarding primary prevention, it is also unknown which elderly are actually at risk of developing new cardiovascular disease.