High-Risk Geographic Mobility Patterns among Young Urban and Suburban Persons who Inject Drugs and their Injection Network Members.

Young people in the USA who inject drugs, particularly those at a risk of residence instability, experience the highest incidence of hepatitis C (HCV) infections. This study examined associations between geographic mobility patterns and sociodemographic, behavioral, and social network characteristics of 164 young (ages 18-30) persons who inject drugs (PWID). We identified a potential bridge sub-population who reported residence in both urban and suburban areas in the past year (crossover transients) and higher-risk behaviors (receptive syringe sharing, multiple sex partners) compared to their residentially localized counterparts. Because they link suburban and urban networks, crossover transients may facilitate transmission of HIV and HCV between higher and lower prevalence areas. Interventions should address risk associated with residential instability, particularly among PWID who travel between urban and suburban areas.

Evaluating large-scale blood transfusion therapy for the current Ebola epidemic in Liberia.

BACKGROUND: To combat the 2014-2015 Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in West Africa, the World Health Organization urged the rapid evaluation of convalescent whole blood (CWB) and plasma (CP) transfusion therapy. However, the feasibility and likely impacts of broad implementation of transfusions are yet unknown. METHODS: We extended an Ebola virus transmission model published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to include hospital-based convalescent donations and transfusions. Using recent epidemiological estimates for EVD in Liberia and assuming that convalescent transfusions reduce the case-fatality rate to 12.5% (range, 7.5%-17.5%), we projected the impacts of a countrywide ramp-up of transfusion therapy. RESULTS: Under the 10% case-hospitalization rate estimated for Liberia in September 2014, large-scale CP therapy is expected to save 3586 lives by October 2015 (3.1% mortality reduction; 95% confidence interval [CI], .52%-4.5%). Under a higher 30% hospitalization rate, CP transfusions are expected to save 151 lives (0.9% of the total; 95% CI, .21%-11%). CONCLUSIONS: Transfusion therapy for EVD is a low-cost measure that can potentially save many lives in West Africa but will not measurably influence the prevalence. Under all scenarios considered, CP transfusions are predicted to achieve greater reductions in mortality than CWB.

Optimizing distribution of pandemic influenza antiviral drugs.

We provide a data-driven method for optimizing pharmacy-based distribution of antiviral drugs during an influenza pandemic in terms of overall access for a target population and apply it to the state of Texas, USA. We found that during the 2009 influenza pandemic, the Texas Department of State Health Services achieved an estimated statewide access of 88% (proportion of population willing to travel to the nearest dispensing point). However, access reached only 34.5% of US postal code (ZIP code) areas containing <1,000 underinsured persons. Optimized distribution networks increased expected access to 91% overall and 60% in hard-to-reach regions, and 2 or 3 major pharmacy chains achieved near maximal coverage in well-populated areas. Independent pharmacies were essential for reaching ZIP code areas containing <1,000 underinsured persons. This model was developed during a collaboration between academic researchers and public health officials and is available as a decision support tool for Texas Department of State Health Services at a Web-based interface.

Defining the analytical complexity of decision problems under uncertainty based on their pivotal properties.

Background: Uncertainty poses a pervasive challenge in decision analysis and risk management. When the problem is poorly understood, probabilistic estimation exhibits high variability and bias. Analysts then utilize various strategies to find satisficing solutions, and these strategies can sometimes adequately address even highly complex problems. Previous literature proposed a hierarchy of uncertainty, but did not develop a quantitative score of analytical complexity. Methods: In order to develop such a score, this study reviewed over 90 strategies to cope with uncertainty, including methods utilized by expert decision-makers such as engineers, military planners and others. Results: It found that many decision problems have pivotal properties that enable their solution despite uncertainty, including small action space, reversibility and others. The analytical complexity score of a problem could then be defined based on the availability of these properties.

Reducing Sample Size While Improving Equity in Vaccine Clinical Trials: A Machine Learning-Based Recruitment Methodology with Application to Improving Trials of Hepatitis C Virus Vaccines in People Who Inject Drugs.

Despite the availability of direct-acting antivirals that cure individuals infected with the hepatitis C virus (HCV), developing a vaccine is critically needed in achieving HCV elimination. HCV vaccine trials have been performed in populations with high incidence of new HCV infection such as people who inject drugs (PWID). Developing strategies of optimal recruitment of PWID for HCV vaccine trials could reduce sample size, follow-up costs and disparities in enrollment. We investigate trial recruitment informed by machine learning and evaluate a strategy for HCV vaccine trials termed PREDICTEE-Predictive Recruitment and Enrichment method balancing Demographics and Incidence for Clinical Trial Equity and Efficiency. PREDICTEE utilizes a survival analysis model applied to trial candidates, considering their demographic and injection characteristics to predict the candidate's probability of HCV infection during the trial. The decision to recruit considers both the candidate's predicted incidence and demographic characteristics such as age, sex, and race. We evaluated PREDICTEE using in silico methods, in which we first generated a synthetic candidate pool and their respective HCV infection events using HepCEP, a validated agent-based simulation model of HCV transmission among PWID in metropolitan Chicago. We then compared PREDICTEE to conventional recruitment of high-risk PWID who share drugs or injection equipment in terms of sample size and recruitment equity, with the latter measured by participation-to-prevalence ratio (PPR) across age, sex, and race. Comparing conventional recruitment to PREDICTEE found a reduction in sample size from 802 (95%: 642-1010) to 278 (95%: 264-294) with PREDICTEE, while also reducing screening requirements by 30%. Simultaneously, PPR increased from 0.475 (95%: 0.356-0.568) to 0.754 (95%: 0.685-0.834). Even when targeting a dissimilar maximally balanced population in which achieving recruitment equity would be more difficult, PREDICTEE is able to reduce sample size from 802 (95%: 642-1010) to 304 (95%: 288-322) while improving PPR to 0.807 (95%: 0.792-0.821). PREDICTEE presents a promising strategy for HCV clinical trial recruitment, achieving sample size reduction while improving recruitment equity.

Victims of human trafficking and exploitation in the healthcare system: a retrospective study using a large multi-state dataset and ICD-10 codes.

Trafficking and exploitation for sex or labor affects millions of persons worldwide. To improve healthcare for these patients, in late 2018 new ICD-10 medical diagnosis codes were implemented in the US. These 13 codes include diagnosis of adult and child sexual exploitation, adult and child labor exploitation, and history of exploitation. Here we report on a database search of a large US health insurer that contained approximately 47.1 million patients and 0.9 million provider organizations, not limited to large medical systems. We reported on any diagnosis with the new codes between 2018-09-01 and 2022-09-01. The dataset was found to contain 5,262 instances of the ICD-10 codes. Regression analysis of the codes found a 5.8% increase in the uptake of these codes per year, representing a decline relative to 6.7% annual increase in the data. The codes were used by 1,810 different providers (0.19% of total) for 2,793 patients. Of the patients, 1,248 were recently trafficked, while the remainder had a personal history of exploitation. Of the recent cases, 86% experienced sexual exploitation, 14% labor exploitation and 0.8% both types. These patients were predominantly female (83%) with a median age of 20 (interquartile range: 15-35). The patients were characterized by persistently high prevalence of mental health conditions (including anxiety: 21%, post-traumatic stress disorder: 20%, major depression: 18%), sexually-transmitted infections, and high utilization of the emergency department (ED). The patients' first report of trafficking occurred most often outside of a hospital or emergency setting (55%), primarily during office and psychiatric visits.

Modeling hepatitis C micro-elimination among people who inject drugs with direct-acting antivirals in metropolitan Chicago.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a leading cause of chronic liver disease and mortality worldwide. Direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy leads to high cure rates. However, persons who inject drugs (PWID) are at risk for reinfection after cure and may require multiple DAA treatments to reach the World Health Organization's (WHO) goal of HCV elimination by 2030. Using an agent-based model (ABM) that accounts for the complex interplay of demographic factors, risk behaviors, social networks, and geographic location for HCV transmission among PWID, we examined the combination(s) of DAA enrollment (2.5%, 5%, 7.5%, 10%), adherence (60%, 70%, 80%, 90%) and frequency of DAA treatment courses needed to achieve the WHO's goal of reducing incident chronic infections by 90% by 2030 among a large population of PWID from Chicago, IL and surrounding suburbs. We also estimated the economic DAA costs associated with each scenario. Our results indicate that a DAA treatment rate of >7.5% per year with 90% adherence results in 75% of enrolled PWID requiring only a single DAA course; however 19% would require 2 courses, 5%, 3 courses and <2%, 4 courses, with an overall DAA cost of $325 million to achieve the WHO goal in metropolitan Chicago. We estimate a 28% increase in the overall DAA cost under low adherence (70%) compared to high adherence (90%). Our modeling results have important public health implications for HCV elimination among U.S. PWID. Using a range of feasible treatment enrollment and adherence rates, we report robust findings supporting the need to address re-exposure and reinfection among PWID to reduce HCV incidence.

Effectiveness of isolation policies in schools: evidence from a mathematical model of influenza and COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing, school closures and travel restrictions are often implemented to control outbreaks of infectious diseases. For influenza in schools, the Center of Disease Control (CDC) recommends that febrile students remain isolated at home until they have been fever-free for at least one day and a related policy is recommended for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19). Other authors proposed using a school week of four or fewer days of in-person instruction for all students to reduce transmission. However, there is limited evidence supporting the effectiveness of these interventions. METHODS: We introduced a mathematical model of school outbreaks that considers both intervention methods. Our model accounts for the school structure and schedule, as well as the time-progression of fever symptoms and viral shedding. The model was validated on outbreaks of seasonal and pandemic influenza and COVID-19 in schools. It was then used to estimate the outbreak curves and the proportion of the population infected (attack rate) under the proposed interventions. RESULTS: For influenza, the CDC-recommended one day of post-fever isolation can reduce the attack rate by a median (interquartile range) of 29 (13-59)%. With 2 days of post-fever isolation the attack rate could be reduced by 70 (55-85)%. Alternatively, shortening the school week to 4 and 3 days reduces the attack rate by 73 (64-88)% and 93 (91-97)%, respectively. For COVID-19, application of post-fever isolation policy was found to be less effective and reduced the attack rate by 10 (5-17)% for a 2-day isolation policy and by 14 (5-26)% for 14 days. A 4-day school week would reduce the median attack rate in a COVID-19 outbreak by 57 (52-64)%, while a 3-day school week would reduce it by 81 (79-83)%. In both infections, shortening the school week significantly reduced the duration of outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: Shortening the school week could be an important tool for controlling influenza and COVID-19 in schools and similar settings. Additionally, the CDC-recommended post-fever isolation policy for influenza could be enhanced by requiring two days of isolation instead of one.

Effectiveness of Isolation Policies in Schools: Evidence from a Mathematical Model of Influenza and COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing, school closures and travel restrictions are often implemented to control outbreaks of infectious diseases. For influenza in schools, the Center of Disease Control (CDC) recommends that febrile students remain isolated at home until they have been fever-free for at least one day and a related policy is recommended for SARS-CoV2 (COVID-19). Other authors proposed using a school week of four or fewer days of in-person instruction for all students to reduce transmission. However, there is limited evidence supporting the effectiveness of these interventions. METHODS: We introduced a mathematical model of school outbreaks that considers both intervention methods. Our model accounts for the school structure and schedule, as well as the time-progression of fever symptoms and viral shedding. The model was validated on outbreaks of seasonal and pandemic influenza and COVID-19 in schools. It was then used to estimate the outbreak curves and the proportion of the population infected (attack rate) under the proposed interventions. RESULTS: For influenza, the CDC-recommended one day of post-fever isolation can reduce the attack rate by a median (interquartile range) of 29 (13 - 59)%. With two days of post-fever isolation the attack rate could be reduced by 70 (55 - 85)%. Alternatively, shortening the school week to four and three days reduces the attack rate by 73 (64 - 88)% and 93 (91 - 97)%, respectively. For COVID-19, application of post-fever isolation policy was found to be less effective and reduced the attack rate by 10 (5 - 17)% for a two-day isolation policy and by 14 (5 - 26)% for 14 days. A four-day school week would reduce the median attack rate in a COVID-19 outbreak by 57 (52 - 64)%, while a three-day school week would reduce it by 81 (79 - 83)%. In both infections, shortening the school week significantly reduced the duration of outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: Shortening the school week could be an important tool for controlling influenza and COVID-19 in schools and similar settings. Additionally, the CDC-recommended post-fever isolation policy for influenza could be enhanced by requiring two days of isolation instead of one.

MULTI-OBJECTIVE MODEL EXPLORATION OF HEPATITIS C ELIMINATION IN AN AGENT-BASED MODEL OF PEOPLE WHO INJECT DRUGS.

Hepatitis C (HCV) is a leading cause of chronic liver disease and mortality worldwide and persons who inject drugs (PWID) are at the highest risk for acquiring and transmitting HCV infection. We developed an agent-based model (ABM) to identify and optimize direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy scale-up and treatment strategies for achieving the World Health Organization (WHO) goals of HCV elimination by the year 2030. While DAA is highly efficacious, it is also expensive, and therefore intervention strategies should balance the goals of elimination and the cost of the intervention. Here we present and compare two methods for finding PWID treatment enrollment strategies by conducting a standard model parameter sweep and compare the results to an evolutionary multi-objective optimization algorithm. The evolutionary approach provides a pareto-optimal set of solutions that minimizes treatment costs and incidence rates.

Modeling indicates efficient vaccine-based interventions for the elimination of hepatitis C virus among persons who inject drugs in metropolitan Chicago.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Persons who inject drugs (PWID) are at highest risk for acquiring and transmitting hepatitis C (HCV) infection. The recent availability of oral direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy with reported cure rates >90% can prevent HCV transmission, making HCV elimination an attainable goal among PWID. The World Health Organization (WHO) recently proposed a 90% reduction in HCV incidence as a key objective. However, given barriers to the use of DAAs in PWID, including cost, restricted access to DAAs, and risk of reinfection, combination strategies including the availability of effective vaccines are needed to eradicate HCV as a public health threat. This study aims to model the cost and efficacy of a dual modality approach using HCV vaccines combined with DAAs to reduce HCV incidence by 90% and prevalence by 50% in PWID populations. METHODS: We developed a mathematical model that represents the HCV epidemic among PWID and calibrated it to empirical data from metropolitan Chicago, Illinois. Four medical interventions were considered: vaccination of HCV naive PWID, DAA treatment, DAA treatment followed by vaccination, and, a combination of vaccination and DAA treatment. RESULTS: The combination of vaccination and DAAs is the lowest cost-expensive intervention for achieving the WHO target of 90% incidence reduction. The use of DAAs without a vaccine is much less cost-effective with the additional risk of reinfection after treatment. Vaccination of naïve PWID alone, even when scaled-up to all reachable PWID, cannot achieve 90% reduction of incidence in high-prevalence populations due to infections occurring before vaccination. Similarly, the lowest cost-expensive way to halve prevalence in 15 years is through the combination of vaccination and DAAs. CONCLUSIONS: The modeling results underscore the importance of developing an effective HCV vaccine and augmenting DAAs with vaccines in HCV intervention strategies in order to achieve efficient reductions in incidence and prevalence.

Modeling of patient virus titers suggests that availability of a vaccine could reduce hepatitis C virus transmission among injecting drug users.

The major route of hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission in the United States is injection drug use. We hypothesized that if an HCV vaccine were available, vaccination could affect HCV transmission among people who inject drugs by reducing HCV titers after viral exposure without necessarily achieving sterilizing immunity. To investigate this possibility, we developed a mathematical model to determine transmission probabilities relative to the HCV RNA titers of needle/syringe-sharing donors. We simulated sharing of two types of syringes fitted with needles that retain either large or small amounts of fluid after expulsion. Using previously published viral kinetics data from both naïve subjects infected with HCV and reinfected individuals who had previously cleared an HCV infection, we estimated transmission risk between pairs of serodiscordant injecting drug users, accounting for syringe type, rinsing, and sharing frequency. We calculated that the risk of HCV transmission through syringe sharing increased ~10-fold as viral titers (log10 IU/ml) increased ~25-fold. Cumulative analyses showed that, assuming sharing episodes every 7 days, the mean transmission risk over the first 6 months was >90% between two people sharing syringes when one had an HCV RNA titer >5 log10 IU/ml. For those with preexisting immunity that rapidly controlled HCV, the cumulative risk decreased to 1 to 25% depending on HCV titer and syringe type. Our modeling approach demonstrates that, even with transient viral replication after exposure during injection drug use, HCV transmission among people sharing syringes could be reduced through vaccination if an HCV vaccine were available.

Integrating evidence, models and maps to enhance Chagas disease vector surveillance.

BACKGROUND: Until recently, the Chagas disease vector, Triatoma infestans, was widespread in Arequipa, Perú, but as a result of a decades-long campaign in which over 70,000 houses were treated with insecticides, infestation prevalence is now greatly reduced. To monitor for T. infestans resurgence, the city is currently in a surveillance phase in which a sample of houses is selected for inspection each year. Despite extensive data from the control campaign that could be used to inform surveillance, the selection of houses to inspect is often carried out haphazardly or by convenience. Therefore, we asked, how can we enhance efforts toward preventing T. infestans resurgence by creating the opportunity for vector surveillance to be informed by data? METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To this end, we developed a mobile app that provides vector infestation risk maps generated with data from the control campaign run in a predictive model. The app is intended to enhance vector surveillance activities by giving inspectors the opportunity to incorporate the infestation risk information into their surveillance activities, but it does not dictate which houses to surveil. Therefore, a critical question becomes, will inspectors use the risk information? To answer this question, we ran a pilot study in which we compared surveillance using the app to the current practice (paper maps). We hypothesized that inspectors would use the risk information provided by the app, as measured by the frequency of higher risk houses visited, and qualitative analyses of inspector movement patterns in the field. We also compared the efficiency of both mediums to identify factors that might discourage risk information use. Over the course of ten days (five with each medium), 1,081 houses were visited using the paper maps, of which 366 (34%) were inspected, while 1,038 houses were visited using the app, with 401 (39%) inspected. Five out of eight inspectors (62.5%) visited more higher risk houses when using the app (Fisher's exact test, p < 0.001). Among all inspectors, there was an upward shift in proportional visits to higher risk houses when using the app (Mantel-Haenszel test, common odds ratio (OR) = 2.42, 95% CI 2.00-2.92), and in a second analysis using generalized linear mixed models, app use increased the odds of visiting a higher risk house 2.73-fold (95% CI 2.24-3.32), suggesting that the risk information provided by the app was used by most inspectors. Qualitative analyses of inspector movement revealed indications of risk information use in seven out of eight (87.5%) inspectors. There was no difference between the app and paper maps in the number of houses visited (paired t-test, p = 0.67) or inspected (p = 0.17), suggesting that app use did not reduce surveillance efficiency. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Without staying vigilant to remaining and re-emerging vector foci following a vector control campaign, disease transmission eventually returns and progress achieved is reversed. Our results suggest that, when provided the opportunity, most inspectors will use risk information to direct their surveillance activities, at least over the short term. The study is an initial, but key, step toward evidence-based vector surveillance.

Generating realistic scaled complex networks.

Research on generative models plays a central role in the emerging field of network science, studying how statistical patterns found in real networks could be generated by formal rules. Output from these generative models is then the basis for designing and evaluating computational methods on networks including verification and simulation studies. During the last two decades, a variety of models has been proposed with an ultimate goal of achieving comprehensive realism for the generated networks. In this study, we (a) introduce a new generator, termed ReCoN; (b) explore how ReCoN and some existing models can be fitted to an original network to produce a structurally similar replica, (c) use ReCoN to produce networks much larger than the original exemplar, and finally (d) discuss open problems and promising research directions. In a comparative experimental study, we find that ReCoN is often superior to many other state-of-the-art network generation methods. We argue that ReCoN is a scalable and effective tool for modeling a given network while preserving important properties at both micro- and macroscopic scales, and for scaling the exemplar data by orders of magnitude in size.

Modeling a dynamic bi-layer contact network of injection drug users and the spread of blood-borne infections.

Injection drug users (IDUs) are at high risk of acquiring and spreading various blood-borne infections including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), hepatitis B virus (HBV) and a number of sexually transmitted infections. These infections can spread among IDUs via risky sexual and needle-sharing contacts. To accurately model the spread of such contagions among IDUs, we build a bi-layer network that captures both types of risky contacts. We present methodology for inferring important model parameters, such as those governing network structure and dynamics, from readily available data sources (e.g., epidemiological surveys). Such a model can be used to evaluate the efficacy of various programs that aim to combat drug addiction and contain blood-borne diseases among IDUs. The model is especially useful for evaluating interventions that exploit the structure of the contact network. To illustrate, we instantiate a network model with data collected by a needle and syringe program in Chicago. We model sexual and needle-sharing contacts and the consequent spread of HIV and HCV. We use the model to evaluate the potential effects of a peer education (PE) program under different targeting strategies. We show that a targeted PE program would avert significantly more HIV and HCV infections than an untargeted program, highlighting the importance of reaching individuals who are centrally located in contact networks when instituting prevention programs.

Operational resilience: concepts, design and analysis.

Building resilience into today's complex infrastructures is critical to the daily functioning of society and its ability to withstand and recover from natural disasters, epidemics, and cyber-threats. This study proposes quantitative measures that capture and implement the definition of engineering resilience advanced by the National Academy of Sciences. The approach is applicable across physical, information, and social domains. It evaluates the critical functionality, defined as a performance function of time set by the stakeholders. Critical functionality is a source of valuable information, such as the integrated system resilience over a time interval, and its robustness. The paper demonstrates the formulation on two classes of models: 1) multi-level directed acyclic graphs, and 2) interdependent coupled networks. For both models synthetic case studies are used to explore trends. For the first class, the approach is also applied to the Linux operating system. Results indicate that desired resilience and robustness levels are achievable by trading off different design parameters, such as redundancy, node recovery time, and backup supply available. The nonlinear relationship between network parameters and resilience levels confirms the utility of the proposed approach, which is of benefit to analysts and designers of complex systems and networks.

Efficacy and optimization of palivizumab injection regimens against respiratory syncytial virus infection.

IMPORTANCE: Infection with the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the leading cause of hospitalizations in children, accounting for more than 90,000 hospitalizations every year in the United States. For children who are at risk for severe RSV infections, the American Academy of Pediatrics recommends immunoprophylaxis with a series of up to 5 injections of the antibody palivizumab administered monthly, beginning on November 1 of each year. However, many practitioners initiate injections at the onset of RSV season as indicated by local surveillance. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effectiveness of current regimens for palivizumab injections across different cities and to design an optimized regimen. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We performed a mathematical modeling study of the risk for hospitalization due to RSV infection. The model accounted for the pharmacokinetics of the antibody, the timing of the injections, and seasonal patterns of RSV, including geographic and year-to-year variability. We used the model to estimate the efficacy of current regimens, including the American Academy of Pediatrics recommendation, and to design a more effective injection regimen, the optimized fixed start (OFS), which uses city-specific initiation dates. Participants were the approximately 700,000 individuals who had specimens tested for RSV by National Respiratory and Enteric Virus Surveillance System laboratories in 18 US cities from July 1, 1994, through June 30, 2011 (a total of 725,741 tests). INTERVENTIONS: Different palivizumab injection regimens. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was reduction in hospitalizations due to RSV infections. The secondary measures were cost (number of palivizumab doses) and duration of protection (in days). RESULTS: The American Academy of Pediatrics-recommended 5-injection regimen is expected to reduce hospitalization risk by a median of 2.7% (range, -2.2% to 6.1%) compared with the conventional regimen based on RSV surveillance. The 5-injection OFS regimen is expected to further reduce risk by a median of 6.8% (range, 4.9% to 14.8%), and the 4-injection OFS regimen is expected to achieve efficacy comparable to that of the conventional 5-injection regimen while reducing costs by 20%. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Modified palivizumab regimens can improve protection for children at risk for severe outcomes of RSV infection and thereby lower rates of hospitalization due to RSV.

Agent-Based Model Forecasts Aging of the Population of People Who Inject Drugs in Metropolitan Chicago and Changing Prevalence of Hepatitis C Infections.

People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk for blood-borne pathogens transmitted during the sharing of contaminated injection equipment, particularly hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV prevalence is influenced by a complex interplay of drug-use behaviors, social networks, and geography, as well as the availability of interventions, such as needle exchange programs. To adequately address this complexity in HCV epidemic forecasting, we have developed a computational model, the Agent-based Pathogen Kinetics model (APK). APK simulates the PWID population in metropolitan Chicago, including the social interactions that result in HCV infection. We used multiple empirical data sources on Chicago PWID to build a spatial distribution of an in silico PWID population and modeled networks among the PWID by considering the geography of the city and its suburbs. APK was validated against 2012 empirical data (the latest available) and shown to agree with network and epidemiological surveys to within 1%. For the period 2010-2020, APK forecasts a decline in HCV prevalence of 0.8% per year from 44(± 2)% to 36(± 5)%, although some sub-populations would continue to have relatively high prevalence, including Non-Hispanic Blacks, 48(± 5)%. The rate of decline will be lowest in Non-Hispanic Whites and we find, in a reversal of historical trends, that incidence among non-Hispanic Whites would exceed incidence among Non-Hispanic Blacks (0.66 per 100 per years vs 0.17 per 100 person years). APK also forecasts an increase in PWID mean age from 35(± 1) to 40(± 2) with a corresponding increase from 59(± 2)% to 80(± 6)% in the proportion of the population >30 years old. Our studies highlight the importance of analyzing subpopulations in disease predictions, the utility of computer simulation for analyzing demographic and health trends among PWID and serve as a tool for guiding intervention and prevention strategies in Chicago, and other major cities.

Mathematical Modeling of Hepatitis C Prevalence Reduction with Antiviral Treatment Scale-Up in Persons Who Inject Drugs in Metropolitan Chicago.

BACKGROUND/AIM: New direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) provide an opportunity to combat hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in persons who inject drugs (PWID). Here we use a mathematical model to predict the impact of a DAA-treatment scale-up on HCV prevalence among PWID and the estimated cost in metropolitan Chicago. METHODS: To estimate the HCV antibody and HCV-RNA (chronic infection) prevalence among the metropolitan Chicago PWID population, we used empirical data from three large epidemiological studies. Cost of DAAs is assumed $50,000 per person. RESULTS: Approximately 32,000 PWID reside in metropolitan Chicago with an estimated HCV-RNA prevalence of 47% or 15,040 cases. Approximately 22,000 PWID (69% of the total PWID population) attend harm reduction (HR) programs, such as syringe exchange programs, and have an estimated HCV-RNA prevalence of 30%. There are about 11,000 young PWID (<30 years old) with an estimated HCV-RNA prevalence of 10% (PWID in these two subpopulations overlap). The model suggests that the following treatment scale-up is needed to reduce the baseline HCV-RNA prevalence by one-half over 10 years of treatment [cost per year, min-max in millions]: 35 per 1,000 [$50-$77] in the overall PWID population, 19 per 1,000 [$20-$26] for persons in HR programs, and 5 per 1,000 [$3-$4] for young PWID. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment scale-up could dramatically reduce the prevalence of chronic HCV infection among PWID in Chicago, who are the main reservoir for on-going HCV transmission. Focusing treatment on PWID attending HR programs and/or young PWID could have a significant impact on HCV prevalence in these subpopulations at an attainable cost.

Evader Interdiction: Algorithms, Complexity and Collateral Damage.

In network interdiction problems, evaders (e.g., hostile agents or data packets) are moving through a network toward targets and we wish to choose locations for sensors in order to intercept the evaders. The evaders might follow deterministic routes or Markov chains, or they may be reactive, i.e., able to change their routes in order to avoid the sensors. The challenge in such problems is to choose sensor locations economically, balancing interdiction gains with costs, including the inconvenience sensors inflict upon innocent travelers. We study the objectives of (1) maximizing the number of evaders captured when limited by a budget on sensing cost and, (2) capturing all evaders as cheaply as possible. We give algorithms for optimal sensor placement in several classes of special graphs and hardness and approximation results for general graphs, including evaders who are deterministic, Markov chain-based, reactive and unreactive. A similar-sounding but fundamentally different problem setting was posed by Glazer and Rubinstein where both evaders and innocent travelers are reactive. We again give optimal algorithms for special cases and hardness and approximation results on general graphs.