New strategies for confirmatory testing of secondary hypotheses on combined data from multiple trials.

BACKGROUND: Pivotal evidence of efficacy of a new drug is typically generated by (at least) two clinical trials which independently provide statistically significant and mutually corroborating evidence of efficacy based on a primary endpoint. In this situation, showing drug effects on clinically important secondary objectives can be demanding in terms of sample size requirements. Statistically efficient methods to power for such endpoints while controlling the Type I error are needed. METHODS: We review existing strategies for establishing claims on important but sample size-intense secondary endpoints. We present new strategies based on combined data from two independent, identically designed and concurrent trials, controlling the Type I error at the submission level. We explain the methodology and provide three case studies. RESULTS: Different strategies have been used for establishing secondary claims. One new strategy, involving a protocol planned analysis of combined data across trials, and controlling the Type I error at the submission level, is particularly efficient. It has already been successfully used in support of label claims. Regulatory views on this strategy differ. CONCLUSIONS: Inference on combined data across trials is a useful approach for generating pivotal evidence of efficacy for important but sample size-intense secondary endpoints. It requires careful preparation and regulatory discussion.

Ofatumumab versus Teriflunomide in Multiple Sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Ofatumumab, a subcutaneous anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody, selectively depletes B cells. Teriflunomide, an oral inhibitor of pyrimidine synthesis, reduces T-cell and B-cell activation. The relative effects of these two drugs in patients with multiple sclerosis are not known. METHODS: In two double-blind, double-dummy, phase 3 trials, we randomly assigned patients with relapsing multiple sclerosis to receive subcutaneous ofatumumab (20 mg every 4 weeks after 20-mg loading doses at days 1, 7, and 14) or oral teriflunomide (14 mg daily) for up to 30 months. The primary end point was the annualized relapse rate. Secondary end points included disability worsening confirmed at 3 months or 6 months, disability improvement confirmed at 6 months, the number of gadolinium-enhancing lesions per T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan, the annualized rate of new or enlarging lesions on T2-weighted MRI, serum neurofilament light chain levels at month 3, and change in brain volume. RESULTS: Overall, 946 patients were assigned to receive ofatumumab and 936 to receive teriflunomide; the median follow-up was 1.6 years. The annualized relapse rates in the ofatumumab and teriflunomide groups were 0.11 and 0.22, respectively, in trial 1 (difference, -0.11; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.16 to -0.06; P<0.001) and 0.10 and 0.25 in trial 2 (difference, -0.15; 95% CI, -0.20 to -0.09; P<0.001). In the pooled trials, the percentage of patients with disability worsening confirmed at 3 months was 10.9% with ofatumumab and 15.0% with teriflunomide (hazard ratio, 0.66; P = 0.002); the percentage with disability worsening confirmed at 6 months was 8.1% and 12.0%, respectively (hazard ratio, 0.68; P = 0.01); and the percentage with disability improvement confirmed at 6 months was 11.0% and 8.1% (hazard ratio, 1.35; P = 0.09). The number of gadolinium-enhancing lesions per T1-weighted MRI scan, the annualized rate of lesions on T2-weighted MRI, and serum neurofilament light chain levels, but not the change in brain volume, were in the same direction as the primary end point. Injection-related reactions occurred in 20.2% in the ofatumumab group and in 15.0% in the teriflunomide group (placebo injections). Serious infections occurred in 2.5% and 1.8% of the patients in the respective groups. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with multiple sclerosis, ofatumumab was associated with lower annualized relapse rates than teriflunomide. (Funded by Novartis; ASCLEPIOS I and II ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT02792218 and NCT02792231.).

How patients with multiple sclerosis acquire disability.

Patients with multiple sclerosis acquire disability either through relapse-associated worsening (RAW) or progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA). This study addresses the relative contribution of relapses to disability worsening over the course of the disease, how early progression begins and the extent to which multiple sclerosis therapies delay disability accumulation. Using the Novartis-Oxford multiple sclerosis (NO.MS) data pool spanning all multiple sclerosis phenotypes and paediatric multiple sclerosis, we evaluated ∼200 000 Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) transitions from >27 000 patients with ≤15 years follow-up. We analysed three datasets: (i) A full analysis dataset containing all observational and randomized controlled clinical trials in which disability and relapses were assessed (n = 27 328); (ii) all phase 3 clinical trials (n = 8346); and (iii) all placebo-controlled phase 3 clinical trials (n = 4970). We determined the relative importance of RAW and PIRA, investigated the role of relapses on all-cause disability worsening using Andersen-Gill models and observed the impact of the mechanism of worsening and disease-modifying therapies on the time to reach milestone disability levels using time continuous Markov models. PIRA started early in the disease process, occurred in all phenotypes and became the principal driver of disability accumulation in the progressive phase of the disease. Relapses significantly increased the hazard of all-cause disability worsening events; following a year in which relapses occurred (versus a year without relapses), the hazard increased by 31-48% (all P < 0.001). Pre-existing disability and older age were the principal risk factors for incomplete relapse recovery. For placebo-treated patients with minimal disability (EDSS 1), it took 8.95 years until increased limitation in walking ability (EDSS 4) and 18.48 years to require walking assistance (EDSS 6). Treating patients with disease-modifying therapies delayed these times significantly by 3.51 years (95% confidence limit: 3.19, 3.96) and 3.09 years (2.60, 3.72), respectively. In patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, those who worsened exclusively due to RAW events took a similar length of time to reach milestone EDSS values compared with those with PIRA events; the fastest transitions were observed in patients with PIRA and superimposed relapses. Our data confirm that relapses contribute to the accumulation of disability, primarily early in multiple sclerosis. PIRA begins in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis and becomes the dominant driver of disability accumulation as the disease evolves. Pre-existing disability and older age are the principal risk factors for further disability accumulation. The use of disease-modifying therapies delays disability accrual by years, with the potential to gain time being highest in the earliest stages of multiple sclerosis.

Effect of ofatumumab versus placebo in relapsing multiple sclerosis patients from Japan and Russia: Phase 2 APOLITOS study.

BACKGROUND: Ofatumumab, the first fully human anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody, has been developed as a treatment for relapsing multiple sclerosis (RMS) which can be self-administered at home. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the efficacy and safety of ofatumumab in RMS patients from Japan and Russia. METHODS: APOLITOS included a 24-week, double-blind, placebo-controlled core-part followed by an open-label extension-part. Patients were randomized (2:1) to subcutaneous ofatumumab 20 mg or placebo. Primary outcome was the number of gadolinium-enhancing (Gd+) T1 lesions per scan over 24 weeks. RESULTS: Sixty-four patients were randomized (ofatumumab, n = 43; placebo, n = 21). Primary endpoint was met; ofatumumab reduced Gd + T1 lesions versus placebo by 93.6% (p < 0.001) and the results were consistent across regions (Japan/Russia). Ofatumumab reduced annualized T2 lesion and relapse rate versus placebo by week 24. Both groups showed benefit from ofatumumab in the extension-part. Incidence of adverse events was lower with ofatumumab versus placebo (69.8% vs 81.0%); injection-related reactions were most common. No deaths, opportunistic infections, or malignancies were reported. CONCLUSION: Ofatumumab demonstrated superior efficacy versus placebo, with sustained effect through 48 weeks in RMS patients from Japan/Russia. Switching to ofatumumab after 24 weeks led to rapid radiological and clinical benefits. Safety findings were consistent with pivotal trials.

Safety experience with continued exposure to ofatumumab in patients with relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis for up to 3.5 years.

BACKGROUND: Ofatumumab is approved for the treatment of relapsing multiple sclerosis (RMS). Ongoing safety reporting is crucial to understand its long-term benefit-risk profile. OBJECTIVE: Report the safety and tolerability of ofatumumab in RMS after extended treatment up to 3.5 years. METHODS: Patients completing ASCLEPIOS I/II (phase 3), APLIOS, or APOLITOS (phase 2) trials could enter ALITHIOS, a phase 3b, open-label, long-term safety study. We analyzed cumulative data of continuous ofatumumab treatment and of patients newly switched from teriflunomide. RESULTS: The safety population had 1969 patients: 1292 continuously treated with ofatumumab (median time-at-risk 35.5 months, 3253 patient-years) and 677 newly switched (median time-at-risk 18.3 months, 986 patient-years). A total of 1650 patients (83.8%) had ⩾1 adverse events and 191 (9.7%) had ⩾1 serious adverse events. No opportunistic infections or progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy events were identified; the risk of malignancies was low. Mean serum immunoglobulin (Ig) G levels remained stable. Mean IgM levels decreased but remained above the lower limit of normal in most. Serious infection incidence was low; decreased Ig levels were not associated with serious infections. CONCLUSION: In patients with up to 3.5 years' exposure, ofatumumab was well tolerated, with no new safety risks identified. These findings, with its established effectiveness, support a favorable benefit-risk profile of ofatumumab in RMS.

Efficacy and safety of ofatumumab in recently diagnosed, treatment-naive patients with multiple sclerosis: Results from ASCLEPIOS I and II.

BACKGROUND: In the phase III ASCLEPIOS I and II trials, participants with relapsing multiple sclerosis receiving ofatumumab had significantly better clinical and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) outcomes than those receiving teriflunomide. OBJECTIVES: To assess the efficacy and safety of ofatumumab versus teriflunomide in recently diagnosed, treatment-naive (RDTN) participants from ASCLEPIOS. METHODS: Participants were randomized to receive ofatumumab (20 mg subcutaneously every 4 weeks) or teriflunomide (14 mg orally once daily) for up to 30 months. Endpoints analysed post hoc in the protocol-defined RDTN population included annualized relapse rate (ARR), confirmed disability worsening (CDW), progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA) and adverse events. RESULTS: Data were analysed from 615 RDTN participants (ofatumumab: n = 314; teriflunomide: n = 301). Compared with teriflunomide, ofatumumab reduced ARR by 50% (rate ratio (95% confidence interval (CI)): 0.50 (0.33, 0.74); p < 0.001), and delayed 6-month CDW by 46% (hazard ratio (HR; 95% CI): 0.54 (0.30, 0.98); p = 0.044) and 6-month PIRA by 56% (HR: 0.44 (0.20, 1.00); p = 0.049). Safety findings were manageable and consistent with those of the overall ASCLEPIOS population. CONCLUSION: The favourable benefit-risk profile of ofatumumab versus teriflunomide supports its consideration as a first-line therapy in RDTN patients.ASCLEPIOS I and II are registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02792218 and NCT02792231).

Rapid and sustained B-cell depletion with subcutaneous ofatumumab in relapsing multiple sclerosis: APLIOS, a randomized phase-2 study.

BACKGROUND: Ofatumumab, the first fully human anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody, is approved in several countries for relapsing multiple sclerosis (RMS). OBJECTIVE: To demonstrate the bioequivalence of ofatumumab administered by an autoinjector versus a pre-filled syringe (PFS) and to explore the effect of ofatumumab on B-cell depletion. METHODS: APLIOS (NCT03560739) is a 12-week, open-label, parallel-group, phase-2 study in patients with RMS receiving subcutaneous ofatumumab 20 mg every 4 weeks (q4w) (from Week 4, after initial doses on Days 1, 7, and 14). Patients were randomized 10:10:1:1 to autoinjector or PFS in the abdomen, or autoinjector or PFS in the thigh, respectively. Bioequivalence was determined by area under the curve (AUCτ) and maximum plasma concentration (Cmax) for Weeks 8-12. B-cell depletion and safety/tolerability were assessed. RESULTS: A total of 256 patients contributed to the bioequivalence analyses (autoinjector-abdomen, n = 128; PFS-abdomen, n = 128). Abdominal ofatumumab pharmacokinetic exposure was bioequivalent for autoinjector and PFS (geometric mean AUCτ, 487.7 vs 474.1 h × µg/mL (ratio 1.03); Cmax, 1.409 vs 1.409 µg/mL (ratio 1.00)). B-cell counts (median cells/µL) depleted rapidly in all groups from 214.0 (baseline) to 2.0 (Day 14). Ofatumumab was well tolerated. CONCLUSION: Ofatumumab 20 mg q4w self-administered subcutaneously via autoinjector is bioequivalent to PFS administration and provides rapid B-cell depletion.

Characterisation of MS phenotypes across the age span using a novel data set integrating 34 clinical trials (NO.MS cohort): Age is a key contributor to presentation.

BACKGROUND: The Oxford Big Data Institute, multiple sclerosis (MS) physicians and Novartis aim to address unresolved questions in MS with a novel comprehensive clinical trial data set. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to describe the Novartis-Oxford MS (NO.MS) data set and to explore the relationships between age, disease activity and disease worsening across MS phenotypes. METHODS: We report key characteristics of NO.MS. We modelled MS lesion formation, relapse frequency, brain volume change and disability worsening cross-sectionally, as a function of patients' baseline age, using phase III study data (≈8000 patients). RESULTS: NO.MS contains data of ≈35,000 patients (>200,000 brain images from ≈10,000 patients), with >10 years follow-up. (1) Focal disease activity is highest in paediatric patients and decreases with age, (2) brain volume loss is similar across age and phenotypes and (3) the youngest patients have the lowest likelihood (<25%) of disability worsening over 2 years while risk is higher (25%-75%) in older, disabled or progressive MS patients. Young patients benefit most from treatment. CONCLUSION: NO.MS will illuminate questions related to MS characterisation, progression and prognosis. Age modulates relapse frequency and, thus, the phenotypic presentation of MS. Disease worsening across all phenotypes is mediated by age and appears to some extent be independent from new focal inflammatory activity.

Baseline characteristics and effects of fingolimod on cognitive performance in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Studies reporting the baseline determinants of cognitive performance and treatment effect on cognition in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) are limited. We investigated the baseline correlates of cognition and the long-term treatment effects of fingolimod 0.5 mg once daily on cognitive processing speed and attention in patients with relapsing-remitting MS. METHODS: This post hoc analysis pooled data from the phase 3 FREEDOMS and FREEDOMS II trials (N = 1556). We assessed the correlation between baseline patient demographic and disease characteristics and baseline 3-second Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test (PASAT-3) scores (Spearman's rank test) and the changes from baseline in PASAT-3 (mixed model repeated measures model) in the fingolimod and placebo (up to 24 months) or placebo-fingolimod switched (from Month 24 up to 120 months) groups. Additionally, the predictive value of PASAT-3 score for future disease outcomes was assessed (Cox or logistic regression models). RESULTS: Among the variables assessed, lower PASAT-3 score at baseline correlated with higher disease burden (total brain volume, T2 lesion volume, and Expanded Disability Status Scale score), longer disease duration and older age (p < 0.0001 for all). Fingolimod significantly improved PASAT-3 scores from baseline versus placebo at 6 (1.3; p = 0.0007), 12 (1.1; p = 0.0044) and 24 months (1.1; p = 0.0028), with a sustained effect (overall treatment effect p = 0.0012) up to 120 months. Improvements were seen regardless of baseline cognitive status (PASAT quartile). Baseline PASAT-3 score was predictive of both clinical and magnetic resonance imaging measures of disease activity at Month 24 (p < 0.001 for all). CONCLUSION: Early fingolimod treatment may offer long-term cognitive benefit in patients with relapsing-remitting MS.

Advancing data science in drug development through an innovative computational framework for data sharing and statistical analysis.

BACKGROUND: Novartis and the University of Oxford's Big Data Institute (BDI) have established a research alliance with the aim to improve health care and drug development by making it more efficient and targeted. Using a combination of the latest statistical machine learning technology with an innovative IT platform developed to manage large volumes of anonymised data from numerous data sources and types we plan to identify novel patterns with clinical relevance which cannot be detected by humans alone to identify phenotypes and early predictors of patient disease activity and progression. METHOD: The collaboration focuses on highly complex autoimmune diseases and develops a computational framework to assemble a research-ready dataset across numerous modalities. For the Multiple Sclerosis (MS) project, the collaboration has anonymised and integrated phase II to phase IV clinical and imaging trial data from ≈35,000 patients across all clinical phenotypes and collected in more than 2200 centres worldwide. For the "IL-17" project, the collaboration has anonymised and integrated clinical and imaging data from over 30 phase II and III Cosentyx clinical trials including more than 15,000 patients, suffering from four autoimmune disorders (Psoriasis, Axial Spondyloarthritis, Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) and Rheumatoid arthritis (RA)). RESULTS: A fundamental component of successful data analysis and the collaborative development of novel machine learning methods on these rich data sets has been the construction of a research informatics framework that can capture the data at regular intervals where images could be anonymised and integrated with the de-identified clinical data, quality controlled and compiled into a research-ready relational database which would then be available to multi-disciplinary analysts. The collaborative development from a group of software developers, data wranglers, statisticians, clinicians, and domain scientists across both organisations has been key. This framework is innovative, as it facilitates collaborative data management and makes a complicated clinical trial data set from a pharmaceutical company available to academic researchers who become associated with the project. CONCLUSIONS: An informatics framework has been developed to capture clinical trial data into a pipeline of anonymisation, quality control, data exploration, and subsequent integration into a database. Establishing this framework has been integral to the development of analytical tools.

Effect of fingolimod on MRI outcomes in patients with paediatric-onset multiple sclerosis: results from the phase 3 PARADIGMS study.

OBJECTIVE: PARADIGMS demonstrated superior efficacy and comparable safety of fingolimod versus interferon ß-1a (IFN ß-1a) in paediatric-onset multiple sclerosis (PoMS). This study aimed to report all predefined MRI outcomes from this study. METHODS: Patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) (aged 10-<18 years) were randomised to once-daily oral fingolimod (n=107) or once-weekly intramuscular IFN ß-1a (n=108) in this flexible duration study. MRI was performed at baseline and every 6 months for up to 2 years or end of the study (EOS) in case of early treatment discontinuation/completion. Key MRI endpoints included the annualised rate of formation of new/newly enlarging T2 lesions, gadolinium-enhancing (Gd+) T1 lesions, new T1 hypointense lesions and combined unique active (CUA) lesions (6 months onward), changes in T2 and Gd+ T1 lesion volumes and annualised rate of brain atrophy (ARBA). RESULTS: Of the randomised patients, 107 each were treated with fingolimod and IFN ß-1a for up to 2 years. Fingolimod reduced the annualised rate of formation of new/newly enlarging T2 lesions (52.6%, p<0.001), number of Gd+ T1 lesions per scan (66.0%, p<0.001), annualised rate of new T1 hypointense lesions (62.8%, p<0.001) and CUA lesions per scan (60.7%, p<0.001) versus IFN ß-1a at EOS. The percent increases from baseline in T2 (18.4% vs 32.4%, p<0.001) and Gd+ T1 (-72.3% vs 4.9%, p=0.001) lesion volumes and ARBA (-0.48% vs -0.80%, p=0.014) were lower with fingolimod versus IFN ß-1a, the latter partially due to accelerated atrophy in the IFN ß-1a group. CONCLUSION: Fingolimod significantly reduced MRI activity and ARBA for up to 2 years versus IFN ß-1a in PoMS.

Blinded continuous monitoring in clinical trials with recurrent event endpoints.

In studies with recurrent event endpoints, misspecified assumptions of event rates or dispersion can lead to underpowered trials or overexposure of patients. Specification of overdispersion is often a particular problem as it is usually not reported in clinical trial publications. Changing event rates over the years have been described for some diseases, adding to the uncertainty in planning. To mitigate the risks of inadequate sample sizes, internal pilot study designs have been proposed with a preference for blinded sample size reestimation procedures, as they generally do not affect the type I error rate and maintain trial integrity. Blinded sample size reestimation procedures are available for trials with recurrent events as endpoints. However, the variance in the reestimated sample size can be considerable in particular with early sample size reviews. Motivated by a randomized controlled trial in paediatric multiple sclerosis, a rare neurological condition in children, we apply the concept of blinded continuous monitoring of information, which is known to reduce the variance in the resulting sample size. Assuming negative binomial distributions for the counts of recurrent relapses, we derive information criteria and propose blinded continuous monitoring procedures. The operating characteristics of these are assessed in Monte Carlo trial simulations demonstrating favourable properties with regard to type I error rate, power, and stopping time, ie, sample size.

Clinical Correlations of Brain Lesion Location in Multiple Sclerosis: Voxel-Based Analysis of a Large Clinical Trial Dataset.

There is a limited correlation between white matter (WM) lesion load as determined by magnetic resonance imaging and disability in multiple sclerosis (MS). The reasons for this so-called clinico-radiological paradox are diverse and may, at least partly, relate to the fact that not just the overall lesion burden, but also the exact anatomical location of lesions predict the severity and type of disability. We aimed at studying the relationship between lesion distribution and disability using a voxel-based lesion probability mapping approach in a very large dataset of MS patients. T2-weighted lesion masks of 2348 relapsing-remitting MS patients were spatially normalized to standard stereotaxic space by non-linear registration. Relations between supratentorial WM lesion locations and disability measures were assessed using a non-parametric ANCOVA (Expanded Disability Status Scale [EDSS]; Multiple Sclerosis Functional Composite, and subscores; Modified Fatigue Impact Scale) or multinomial ordinal logistic regression (EDSS functional subscores). Data from 1907 (81%) patients were included in the analysis because of successful registration. The lesion mapping showed similar areas to be associated with the different disability scales: periventricular regions in temporal, frontal, and limbic lobes were predictive, mainly affecting the posterior thalamic radiation, the anterior, posterior, and superior parts of the corona radiata. In summary, significant associations between lesion location and clinical scores were found in periventricular areas. Such lesion clusters appear to be associated with impairment of different physical and cognitive abilities, probably because they affect commissural and long projection fibers, which are relevant WM pathways supporting many different brain functions.

Oral fingolimod in primary progressive multiple sclerosis (INFORMS): a phase 3, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: No treatments have been approved for primary progressive multiple sclerosis. Fingolimod, an oral sphingosine 1-phosphate receptor modulator, is effective in relapse-onset multiple sclerosis, but has not been assessed in primary progressive multiple sclerosis. We assessed the safety and efficacy of fingolimod in patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis. METHODS: In INFORMS, a multicentre, double-blind, placebo-controlled parallel-group study, patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis recruited across 148 centres in 18 countries were randomly allocated (1:1) with computer-generated blocks to receive oral fingolimod or placebo for at least 36 months and a maximum of 5 years. Patients were initially assigned to fingolimod 1·25 mg per day or placebo (cohort 1); however, after a protocol amendment on Nov 19, 2009, patients were switched in a masked manner to fingolimod 0·5 mg, whereas those on placebo continued on matching placebo. From then onwards, patients were assigned to receive fingolimod 0·5 mg/day or placebo (cohort 2). Key inclusion criteria were age 25-65 years, clinical diagnosis of primary progressive multiple sclerosis, 1 year or more of disease progression, and two of the following criteria: positive brain MRI; positive spinal cord MRI; or positive cerebrospinal fluid. Additional eligibility criteria included disease duration of 2-10 years and objective evidence of disability progression in the previous 2 years. Patients and study investigators were masked to group assignment. We used a novel primary composite endpoint based on change from baseline in Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), 25' Timed-Walk Test, or Nine-Hole Peg Test to assess time to 3-month confirmed disability progression in study participants treated for at least 3 years. All randomised patients took at least one dose of study drug. The primary efficacy analysis included all patients in cohort 2 and those assigned to placebo in cohort 1. The safety analysis included all patients in cohorts 1 and 2. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00731692. The study is now closed. FINDINGS: 970 patients were randomly assigned between Sept 3, 2008, and Aug 30, 2011 (147 to fingolimod 1·25 mg and 133 to placebo in cohort 1; 336 to fingolimod 0·5 mg and 354 to placebo in cohort 2). The efficacy analysis set (n=823) consisted of 336 patients randomly allocated to fingolimod 0·5 mg and 487 to placebo. Baseline characteristics were similar across groups and representative of a primary progressive multiple sclerosis population (48% women, mean age 48·5 years [SD 8·4], mean EDSS 4·67 [SD 1·03], 87% free of gadolinium-enhancing lesions). By end of study, 3-month confirmed disability progression had occurred in 232 and 338 patients in the fingolimod and placebo groups, respectively, resulting in Kaplan-Meier estimates of 77·2% (95% CI 71·87-82·51) of patients in the fingolimod group versus 80·3% (73·31-87·25) of patients in the placebo group (risk reduction 5·05%; hazard ratio 0·95, 95% CI 0·80-1·12; p=0·544). Safety results were generally consistent with those of studies of fingolimod in patients with relapse-onset multiple sclerosis. Lymphopenia occurred in 19 (6%) patients in the fingolimod group versus none in the placebo group, bradycardia in five (1%) versus one (<1%), and first-degree atrioventricular block in three (1%) versus six (1%). Serious adverse events occurred in 84 (25%) patients in the fingolimod group and 117 (24%) in the placebo group, including macular oedema in six (2%) versus six (1%), and basal-cell carcinoma in 14 (4%) versus nine (2%). INTERPRETATION: The anti-inflammatory effects of fingolimod did not slow disease progression in primary progressive multiple sclerosis. Therapeutic strategies for primary progressive multiple sclerosis might need different approaches to those used for relapse-onset multiple sclerosis. FUNDING: Novartis Pharma AG.

Defining brain volume cutoffs to identify clinically relevant atrophy in RRMS.

OBJECTIVE: To define values of normalized brain volume (NBV) that can be categorized as low, medium, or high, according to baseline characteristics of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) patients. METHODS: Expected NBV (eNBV) was calculated for each patient based on age, disease duration, sex, baseline Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), and T2-lesion volume, entering these variables into a multiple regression model run on 2342 RRMS patients (pooled FREEDOMS/FREEDOMS-II population). According to the difference between their observed NBV and their eNBV, patients were classified as having low NBV, medium NBV, or high NBV. We evaluated whether these NBV categories were clinically meaningful by assessing correlation with disability worsening. RESULTS: The distribution of differences between observed NBV and eNBV was used to categorize patients as having low NBV, medium NBV or high NBV. Taking the high-NBV group as reference, the hazard ratios (HRs) for 2-year disability worsening, adjusted for treatment effect, were 1.23 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.92-1.63, p = 0.16) for the medium NBV and 1.75 (95% CI: 1.26-2.44, p = 0.001) for the low NBV. The predictive value of NBV groups was preserved over 4 years. Treatment effect appeared more evident in low-NBV patients (HR = 0.58) than in medium-NBV (HR = 0.72) and in high-NBV (HR = 0.80) patients; however, the difference was not significant ( p = 0.57). CONCLUSION: RRMS patients can be categorized into disability risk groups based on individual eNBV values according to baseline demographics and clinical characteristics.

Inclusion of brain volume loss in a revised measure of 'no evidence of disease activity' (NEDA-4) in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: 'No evidence of disease activity' (NEDA), defined as absence of magnetic resonance imaging activity (T2 and/or gadolinium-enhanced T1 lesions), relapses and disability progression ('NEDA-3'), is used as a comprehensive measure of treatment response in relapsing multiple sclerosis (RMS), but is weighted towards inflammatory activity. Accelerated brain volume loss (BVL) occurs in RMS and is an objective measure of disease worsening and progression. OBJECTIVE: To assess the contribution of individual components of NEDA-3 and the impact of adding BVL to NEDA-3 ('NEDA-4') METHODS: We analysed data pooled from two placebo-controlled phase 3 fingolimod trials in RMS and assessed NEDA-4 using different annual BVL mean rate thresholds (0.2%-1.2%). RESULTS: At 2 years, 31.0% (217/700) of patients receiving fingolimod 0.5 mg achieved NEDA-3 versus 9.9% (71/715) on placebo (odds ratio (OR) 4.07; p < 0.0001). Adding BVL (threshold of 0.4%), the respective proportions of patients achieving NEDA-4 were 19.7% (139/706) and 5.3% (38/721; OR 4.41; p < 0.0001). NEDA-4 status favoured fingolimod across all BVL thresholds tested (OR 4.01-4.41; p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: NEDA-4 has the potential to capture the impact of therapies on both inflammation and neurodegeneration, and deserves further evaluation across different compounds and in long-term studies.

Comparative efficacy of therapies for relapsing multiple sclerosis: a systematic review and network meta-analysis.

Aim: To assess the relative efficacy of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) for relapsing multiple sclerosis (RMS) including newer therapies (ozanimod, ponesimod, ublituximab) using network meta-analysis (NMA). Materials & methods: Bayesian NMAs for annualised relapse rate (ARR) and time to 3-month and 6-month confirmed disability progression (3mCDP and 6mCDP) were conducted. Results: For each outcome, the three most efficacious treatments versus placebo were monoclonal antibody (mAb) therapies: alemtuzumab, ofatumumab, and ublituximab for ARR; alemtuzumab, ocrelizumab, and ofatumumab for 3mCDP; and alemtuzumab, natalizumab, and either ocrelizumab or ofatumumab (depending on the CDP definition used for included ofatumumab trials) for 6mCDP. Conclusion: The most efficacious DMTs for RMS were mAb therapies. Of the newer therapies, only ublituximab ranked among the three most efficacious treatments (for ARR).

Serum Neurofilament Light Trajectories and Their Relation to Subclinical Radiological Disease Activity in Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis Patients in the APLIOS Trial.

INTRODUCTION: Several studies have described prognostic value of serum neurofilament light chain (sNfL) at the group level in relapsing multiple sclerosis (RMS) patients. Here, we aimed to explore the temporal association between sNfL and development of subclinical disease activity as assessed by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at the group level and evaluate the potential of sNfL as a biomarker for capturing subclinical disease activity in individual RMS patients. METHODS: In the 12-week APLIOS study, patients (N = 284) received subcutaneous ofatumumab 20 mg. Frequent sNfL sampling (14 time points over 12 weeks) and monthly MRI scans enabled key analyses including assessment of the group-level temporal relationship of sNfL levels with on-study subclinical development of gadolinium-enhancing (Gd +)T1 lesions. Prognostic value of baseline sNfL ("high" vs. "low") level for subsequent on-study clinical relapse or Gd + T1 activity was assessed. Individual patient-level development of on-study Gd + T1 lesions was compared across three predictors: baseline Gd + T1 lesion number, baseline sNfL ("high" vs. "low"), and time-matched sNfL. RESULTS: In patients developing Gd + T1 lesions at week 4 (absent at baseline), sNfL levels increased during the month preceding the week-4 MRI scan and then gradually decreased back to baseline. High versus low baseline sNfL conferred increased risk of subsequent on-study clinical relapse or Gd + T1 activity (HR, 2.81; p < 0.0001) in the overall population and, notably, also in the patients without baseline Gd + T1 lesions (HR, 2.48; p = 0.0213). Individual patient trajectories revealed a marked difference in Gd + T1 lesions between patients with the ten highest vs. lowest baseline sNfL levels (119 vs. 19 lesions). Prognostic value of baseline or time-matched sNfL for on-study Gd + T1 lesions was comparable to that of the number of baseline MRI Gd + T1 lesions. CONCLUSIONS: sNfL measurement may have utility in capturing and monitoring subclinical disease activity in RMS patients. sNfL assessments could complement regular MRI scans and may provide an alternative when MRI assessment is not feasible. CLINICALTRIALS: GOV: NCT03560739. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides class I evidence that serum neurofilament light may be used as a biomarker for monitoring subclinical disease activity in relapsing multiple sclerosis patients, as shown by its elevation in the weeks preceding the development of new gadolinium-enhancing T1 lesion activity.

The Development of Ofatumumab, a Fully Human Anti-CD20 Monoclonal Antibody for Practical Use in Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis Treatment.

The importance of B cells in multiple sclerosis (MS) has been demonstrated through the advent of B-cell-depleting anti-CD20 antibody therapies. Ofatumumab is the first fully human anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody (mAb) developed and tested for subcutaneous (SC) self-administration at monthly doses of 20 mg, and has been approved in the US, UK, EU, and other regions and countries worldwide for the treatment of relapsing MS. The development goal of ofatumumab was to obtain a highly efficacious anti-CD20 therapy, with a safety and tolerability profile that allows for self-administration by MS patients at home and a positive benefit-risk balance for use in the broad relapsing MS population. This development goal was enabled by the unique binding site, higher affinity to B cells, and higher potency of ofatumumab compared to previous anti-CD20 mAbs; these properties of ofatumumab facilitate rapid B-cell depletion and maintenance with a low dose at a low injection volume (20 mg/0.4 ml). The high potency in turn enables the selective targeting of B cells that reside in the lymphatic system via subcutaneous (SC) administration. Through a comprehensive dose-finding program in two phase 2 studies (one intravenous and one SC) and model simulations, it was found that safety and tolerability can be further improved, and the risk of systemic injection-related reactions (IRRs) minimized, by avoiding doses ≥ 30 mg, and by reaching initial and rapid B-cell depletion via stepwise weekly administration of ofatumumab at Weeks 0, 1, and 2 (instead of a single high dose). Once near-complete B-cell depletion is reached, it can be maintained by monthly doses of 20 mg/0.4 ml. Indeed, in phase 3 trials (ASCLEPIOS I/II), rapid and sustained near-complete B-cell depletion (largely independent of body weight, race and other factors) was observed with this dosing regimen, which resulted in superior efficacy of ofatumumab versus teriflunomide on relapse rates, disability worsening, neuronal injury (serum neurofilament light chain), and imaging outcomes. Likely due to its fully human nature, ofatumumab has a low immunogenic risk profile-only 2 of 914 patients receiving ofatumumab in ASCLEPIOS I/II developed anti-drug antibodies-and this may also underlie the infrequent IRRs (20% with ofatumumab vs. 15% with the placebo injection in the teriflunomide arm) that were mostly (99.8%) mild to moderate in severity. The overall rates of infections and serious infections in patients treated with ofatumumab were similar to those in patients treated with teriflunomide (51.6% vs. 52.7% and 2.5% vs. 1.8%, respectively). The benefit-risk profile of ofatumumab was favorable compared to teriflunomide in the broad RMS population, and also in the predefined subgroups of both recently diagnosed and/or treatment-naïve patients, as well as previously disease-modifying therapy-treated patients. Interim data from the ongoing extension study (ALITHIOS) have shown that long-term treatment with ofatumumab up to 4 years is well-tolerated in RMS patients, with no new safety risks identified. In parallel to the phase 3 trials in which SC administration was carried out with a pre-filled syringe, an autoinjector pen for more convenient self-administration of the ofatumumab 20 mg dose was developed and is available for use in clinical practice.

Blood Neurofilament Light in Progressive Multiple Sclerosis: Post Hoc Analysis of 2 Randomized Controlled Trials.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: To investigate the potential of plasma neurofilament light (pNfL) as a biomarker of disease progression and treatment response in progressive multiple sclerosis (PMS) with and without acute disease activity. METHODS: A post hoc blinded analysis of pNfL levels in 2 placebo-controlled, phase 3 studies in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS; EXPAND) and primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS; INFORMS) using siponimod and fingolimod, respectively, as active compounds was performed. pNfL levels were quantified using a single molecule array (Homebrew Simoa) immunoassay from stored ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA) plasma samples of all patients who consented for exploratory biomarker analysis in either study; pNfL levels were divided into high (≥30 pg/mL) and low (<30 pg/mL) at baseline. We investigated the association of pNfL levels with disability progression, cognitive decline, and brain atrophy and their sensitivity to indicate treatment response through clinical measures. RESULTS: We analyzed pNfL in 4,185 samples from 1,452 patients with SPMS and 1,172 samples from 378 patients with PPMS. Baseline pNfL levels were higher in SPMS (geomean 32.1 pg/mL) than in PPMS (22.0 pg/mL; p < 0.0001). In both studies, higher baseline pNfL levels were associated with older age, higher Expanded Disability Status Scale score, more Gd+ lesions, and higher T2 lesion load (all p < 0.05). Independent of treatment, high vs low baseline pNfL levels were associated with significantly higher risks of confirmed 3-month (SPMS [32%], hazard ratio [95% CI] 1.32 [1.09-1.61]; PPMS [49%], 1.49 [1.05-2.12]) and 6-month disability progression (SPMS [26%], 1.26 [1.01-1.57]; PPMS [48%], 1.48 [1.01-2.17]), earlier wheelchair dependence (SPMS [50%], 1.50 [0.96-2.34]; PPMS [197%], 2.97 [1.44-6.10]), cognitive decline (SPMS [41%], 1.41 [1.09-1.84]), and higher rates of brain atrophy (mean change at month 24: SPMS, -0.92; PPMS, -1.39). Baseline pNfL levels were associated with future disability progression and the degree of brain atrophy regardless of presence or absence of acute disease activity (gadolinium-enhancing lesions or recent occurrence of relapses before baseline). pNfL levels were lower in patients treated with siponimod or fingolimod vs placebo-treated patients and higher in those having experienced disability progression. DISCUSSION: pNfL was associated with future clinical and radiologic disability progression features at the group level. pNfL was reduced by treatment and may be a meaningful outcome measure in PMS studies. TRIAL REGISTRATION INFORMATION: EXPAND (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01665144) and INFORMS (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00731692).