Human impacts and Anthropocene environmental change at Lake Kutubu, a Ramsar wetland in Papua New Guinea.

The impacts of human-induced environmental change that characterize the Anthropocene are not felt equally across the globe. In the tropics, the potential for the sudden collapse of ecosystems in response to multiple interacting pressures has been of increasing concern in ecological and conservation research. The tropical ecosystems of Papua New Guinea are areas of diverse rainforest flora and fauna, inhabited by human populations that are equally diverse, both culturally and linguistically. These people and the ecosystems they rely on are being put under increasing pressure from mineral resource extraction, population growth, land clearing, invasive species, and novel pollutants. This study details the last ∼90 y of impacts on ecosystem dynamics in one of the most biologically diverse, yet poorly understood, tropical wetland ecosystems of the region. The lake is listed as a Ramsar wetland of international importance, yet, since initial European contact in the 1930s and the opening of mineral resource extraction facilities in the 1990s, there has been a dramatic increase in deforestation and an influx of people to the area. Using multiproxy paleoenvironmental records from lake sediments, we show how these anthropogenic impacts have transformed Lake Kutubu. The recent collapse of algal communities represents an ecological tipping point that is likely to have ongoing repercussions for this important wetland's ecosystems. We argue that the incorporation of an adequate historical perspective into models for wetland management and conservation is critical in understanding how to mitigate the impacts of ecological catastrophes such as biodiversity loss.

Long-term trajectories of non-native vegetation on islands globally.

Human-mediated changes in island vegetation are, among others, largely caused by the introduction and establishment of non-native species. However, data on past changes in non-native plant species abundance that predate historical documentation and censuses are scarce. Islands are among the few places where we can track human arrival in natural systems allowing us to reveal changes in vegetation dynamics with the arrival of non-native species. We matched fossil pollen data with botanical status information (native, non-native), and quantified the timing, trajectories and magnitude of non-native plant vegetational change on 29 islands over the past 5000 years. We recorded a proportional increase in pollen of non-native plant taxa within the last 1000 years. Individual island trajectories are context-dependent and linked to island settlement histories. Our data show that non-native plant introductions have a longer and more dynamic history than is generally recognized, with critical implications for biodiversity baselines and invasion biology.

Pollen-insect interaction meta-networks identify key relationships for conservation in mosaic agricultural landscapes.

Flower visitors use different parts of the landscape through the plants they visit, however these connections vary within and among land uses. Identifying which flower-visiting insects are carrying pollen, and from where in the landscape, can elucidate key pollen-insect interactions and identify the most important sites for maintaining community-level interactions across land uses. We developed a bipartite meta-network, linking pollen-insect interactions with the sites they occur in. We used this to identify which land-use types at the site- and landscape-scale (within 500 m of a site) are most important for conserving pollen-insect interactions. We compared pollen-insect interactions across four different land uses (remnant native forest, avocado orchard, dairy farm, rotational potato crop) within a mosaic agricultural landscape. We sampled insects using flight intercept traps, identified pollen carried on their bodies and quantified distinct pollen-insect interactions that were highly specialized to both natural and modified land uses. We found that sites in crops and dairy farms had higher richness of pollen-insect interactions and higher interaction strength than small forest patches and orchards. Further, many interactions involved pollinator groups such as flies, wasps, and beetles that are often under-represented in pollen-insect network studies, but were often connector species in our networks. These insect groups require greater attention to enable wholistic pollinator community conservation. Pollen samples were dominated by grass (Poaceae) pollen, indicating anemophilous plant species may provide important food resources for pollinators, particularly in modified land uses. Field-scale land use (within 100 m of a site) better predicted pollen-insect interaction richness, uniqueness, and strength than landscape-scale. Thus, management focused at smaller scales may provide more tractable outcomes for conserving or restoring pollen-insect interactions in modified landscapes. For instance, actions aimed at linking high-richness sites with those containing unique (i.e., rare) interactions by enhancing floral corridors along field boundaries and between different land uses may best aid interaction diversity and connectance. The ability to map interactions across sites using a meta-network approach is practical and can inform land-use planning, whereby conservation efforts can be targeted toward areas that host key interactions between plant and pollinator species.

The AusPollen partnership project: Allergenic airborne grass pollen seasonality and magnitude across temperate and subtropical eastern Australia, 2016-2020.

BACKGROUND: Allergic rhinitis affects half a billion people globally, including a fifth of the Australian population. As the foremost outdoor allergen source, ambient grass pollen exposure is likely to be altered by climate change. The AusPollen Partnership aimed to standardize pollen monitoring and examine broad-scale biogeographical and meteorological factors influencing interannual variation in seasonality of grass pollen aerobiology in Australia. METHODS: Daily airborne grass and other pollen concentrations in four eastern Australian cities separated by over 1700 km, were simultaneously monitored using Hirst-style samplers following the Australian Interim Pollen and Spore Monitoring Standard and Protocols over four seasons from 2016 to 2020. The grass seasonal pollen integral was determined. Gridded rainfall, temperature, and satellite-derived grassland sources up to 100 km from the monitoring site were analysed. RESULTS: The complexity of grass pollen seasons was related to latitude with multiple major summer-autumn peaks in Brisbane, major spring and minor summer peaks in Sydney and Canberra, and single major spring peaks occurring in Melbourne. The subtropical site of Brisbane showed a higher proportion of grass out of total pollen than more temperate sites. The magnitude of the grass seasonal pollen integral was correlated with pasture greenness, rainfall and number of days over 30 °C, preceding and within the season, up to 100 km radii from monitoring sites. CONCLUSIONS: Interannual fluctuations in Australian grass pollen season magnitude are strongly influenced by regional biogeography and both pre- and in-season weather. This first continental scale, Southern Hemisphere standardized aerobiology dataset forms the basis to track shifts in pollen seasonality, biodiversity and impacts on allergic respiratory diseases.

Micro Methods for Megafauna: Novel Approaches to Late Quaternary Extinctions and Their Contributions to Faunal Conservation in the Anthropocene.

Drivers of Late Quaternary megafaunal extinctions are relevant to modern conservation policy in a world of growing human population density, climate change, and faunal decline. Traditional debates tend toward global solutions, blaming either dramatic climate change or dispersals of Homo sapiens to new regions. Inherent limitations to archaeological and paleontological data sets often require reliance on scant, poorly resolved lines of evidence. However, recent developments in scientific technologies allow for more local, context-specific approaches. In the present article, we highlight how developments in five such methodologies (radiocarbon approaches, stable isotope analysis, ancient DNA, ancient proteomics, microscopy) have helped drive detailed analysis of specific megafaunal species, their particular ecological settings, and responses to new competitors or predators, climate change, and other external phenomena. The detailed case studies of faunal community composition, extinction chronologies, and demographic trends enabled by these methods examine megafaunal extinctions at scales appropriate for practical understanding of threats against particular species in their habitats today.

Regional and seasonal variation in airborne grass pollen levels between cities of Australia and New Zealand.

Although grass pollen is widely regarded as the major outdoor aeroallergen source in Australia and New Zealand (NZ), no assemblage of airborne pollen data for the region has been previously compiled. Grass pollen count data collected at 14 urban sites in Australia and NZ over periods ranging from 1 to 17 years were acquired, assembled and compared, revealing considerable spatiotemporal variability. Although direct comparison between these data is problematic due to methodological differences between monitoring sites, the following patterns are apparent. Grass pollen seasons tended to have more than one peak from tropics to latitudes of 37°S and single peaks at sites south of this latitude. A longer grass pollen season was therefore found at sites below 37°S, driven by later seasonal end dates for grass growth and flowering. Daily pollen counts increased with latitude; subtropical regions had seasons of both high intensity and long duration. At higher latitude sites, the single springtime grass pollen peak is potentially due to a cooler growing season and a predominance of pollen from C3 grasses. The multiple peaks at lower latitude sites may be due to a warmer season and the predominance of pollen from C4 grasses. Prevalence and duration of seasonal allergies may reflect the differing pollen seasons across Australia and NZ. It must be emphasized that these findings are tentative due to limitations in the available data, reinforcing the need to implement standardized pollen-monitoring methods across Australasia. Furthermore, spatiotemporal differences in grass pollen counts indicate that local, current, standardized pollen monitoring would assist with the management of pollen allergen exposure for patients at risk of allergic rhinitis and asthma.

Stochastic models support rapid peopling of Late Pleistocene Sahul.

The peopling of Sahul (the combined continent of Australia and New Guinea) represents the earliest continental migration and settlement event of solely anatomically modern humans, but its patterns and ecological drivers remain largely conceptual in the current literature. We present an advanced stochastic-ecological model to test the relative support for scenarios describing where and when the first humans entered Sahul, and their most probable routes of early settlement. The model supports a dominant entry via the northwest Sahul Shelf first, potentially followed by a second entry through New Guinea, with initial entry most consistent with 50,000 or 75,000 years ago based on comparison with bias-corrected archaeological map layers. The model's emergent properties predict that peopling of the entire continent occurred rapidly across all ecological environments within 156-208 human generations (4368-5599 years) and at a plausible rate of 0.71-0.92 km year-1. More broadly, our methods and approaches can readily inform other global migration debates, with results supporting an exit of anatomically modern humans from Africa 63,000-90,000 years ago, and the peopling of Eurasia in as little as 12,000-15,000 years via inland routes.

The human dimension of biodiversity changes on islands.

Islands are among the last regions on Earth settled and transformed by human activities, and they provide replicated model systems for analysis of how people affect ecological functions. By analyzing 27 representative fossil pollen sequences encompassing the past 5000 years from islands globally, we quantified the rates of vegetation compositional change before and after human arrival. After human arrival, rates of turnover accelerate by a median factor of 11, with faster rates on islands colonized in the past 1500 years than for those colonized earlier. This global anthropogenic acceleration in turnover suggests that islands are on trajectories of continuing change. Strategies for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem restoration must acknowledge the long duration of human impacts and the degree to which ecological changes today differ from prehuman dynamics.

Using crowd-sourced allergic rhinitis symptom data to improve grass pollen forecasts and predict individual symptoms.

Seasonal allergic rhinitis (AR), also known as hay fever, is a common respiratory condition brought on by a range of environmental triggers. Previous work has characterised the relationships between community-level AR symptoms collected using mobile apps in two Australian cities, Canberra and Melbourne, and various environmental covariates including pollen. Here, we build on these relationships by assessing the skill of models that provide a next-day forecast of an individual's risk of developing AR and that nowcast ambient grass pollen concentrations using crowd-sourced AR symptoms as a predictor. Categorical grass pollen forecasts (low/moderate/high) were made based on binning mean daily symptom scores by corresponding categories. Models for an individual's risk were constructed by forward variable selection, considering environmental, demographic, behaviour and health-related inputs, with non-linear responses permitted. Proportional-odds logistic regression was then applied with the variables selected, modelling the symptom scores on their original five-point scale. AR symptom-based estimates of today's average grass pollen concentration were more accurate than those provided by two benchmark forecasting methods using various metrics for assessing accuracy. Predictions of an individual's next-day AR symptoms rated on a five-point scale were correct in 36% of cases and within one point on this scale in 82% of cases. Both outcomes were significantly better than chance. This large-scale AR symptoms measurement program shows that crowd-sourced symptom scores can be used to predict the daily average grass pollen concentration, as well as provide a personalised AR forecast.

How significant is atmospheric metal contamination from mining activity adjacent to the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area? A spatial analysis of metal concentrations using air trajectories models.

This study investigated metal contamination from historical mining in lakes in the Tasmanian Wilderness World Heritage Area (TWWHA) and surrounding region. The largest increase in sedimentation and metal contamination occurred ca. 1930 when open-cut mining commenced and new mining technology was introduced into the region. The geochemical signal of lake sediments changed from reflecting the underlying geology and lithology to that reflecting mining activities. The HYSPLIT air particle trajectory model explains metal distribution in the lakes, with those in the northwest region closest to the mines having the highest metal contamination. Lake metal concentrations since mining activities commenced are in the order: Owen Tarn > Basin Lake > Perched Lake > Lake Dove > Lake Dobson > Lake Cygnus, with Perched Lake and Lakes Dove, Dobson and Cygnus in the TWWHA. Metal contamination affected centres up to 130 km down-wind of mining sites. Enrichment factors (EF) for Pb, Cu, As and Cd are >1 for all lakes, with Owen Tarn and Basin Lake having very high EFs for Cu and Pb (98 and 91, respectively). Pb, Cu, As and Cd concentrations are above the Australia/New Zealand lower sediment guidelines, with Pb, Cu and As above the high guidelines in Owen Tarn and Basin Lake. This study demonstrated the legacy of metal contamination in the TWWHA by mining activities and the consequences of a lack of execution of environmental regulations by past governments in Tasmania.

Pollen analysis of Australian honey.

Pollen analysis is widely used to verify the geographic origin of honeys, but has never been employed in Australia. In this study, we analysed the pollen content of 173 unblended honey samples sourced from most of the commercial honey producing regions in southern Australia. Southern Australian vegetation is dominated by Eucalyptus (Myrtaceae) forests and, as expected, most Australian honeys are palynologically dominated by Eucalyptus, while other important components include Myrtaceae taxa such as Corymbia/Angophora and the tribe Leptospermeae; plus Brassicaceae, Echium, Macadamia, and Acacia. An important feature of the honeys is the number of Myrtaceae pollen morphotypes per sample, which is generally high (mean = 4.6) compared to honeys produced outside of Australia, including Eucalyptus honeys produced in the Mediterranean region, and honeys produced in South America, which has its own rich indigenous Myrtaceae flora. In the latter regions, the number of Myrtaceae morphotypes is apparently generally ≤2. A high number of Myrtaceae morphotypes may be a feasible criterion for authenticating the origin of Australian honeys, since most Australian honey is produced by honey bees mainly working indigenous floral resources. Myrtaceae morphotype diversity is a convenient melissopalynological measure that could be applied even where detailed knowledge of the pollen morphology of the many component genera and species is absent. Palynological criteria developed in Europe for authenticating Eucalyptus honeys should not be relied upon for Australian honeys, since those criteria are not based on samples of Australian honey.

Dynamic ecological observations from satellites inform aerobiology of allergenic grass pollen.

Allergic diseases, including respiratory conditions of allergic rhinitis (hay fever) and asthma, affect up to 500 million people worldwide. Grass pollen are one major source of aeroallergens globally. Pollen forecast methods are generally site-based and rely on empirical meteorological relationships and/or the use of labour-intensive pollen collection traps that are restricted to sparse sampling locations. The spatial and temporal dynamics of the grass pollen sources themselves, however, have received less attention. Here we utilised a consistent set of MODIS satellite measures of grass cover and seasonal greenness (EVI) over five contrasting urban environments, located in Northern (France) and Southern Hemispheres (Australia), to evaluate their utility for predicting airborne grass pollen concentrations. Strongly seasonal and pronounced pollinating periods, synchronous with satellite measures of grass cover greenness, were found at the higher latitude temperate sites in France (46-50° N. Lat.), with peak pollen activity lagging peak greenness, on average by 2-3weeks. In contrast, the Australian sites (34-38° S. Lat.) displayed pollinating periods that were less synchronous with satellite greenness measures as peak pollen concentrations lagged peak greenness by as much as 4 to 7weeks. The Australian sites exhibited much higher spatial and inter-annual variations compared to the French sites and at the Sydney site, broader and multiple peaks in both pollen concentrations and greenness data coincided with flowering of more diverse grasses including subtropical species. Utilising generalised additive models (GAMs) we found the satellite greenness data of grass cover areas explained 80-90% of airborne grass pollen concentrations across the three French sites (p<0.001) and accounted for 34 to 76% of grass pollen variations over the two sites in Australia (p<0.05). Our results demonstrate the potential of satellite sensing to augment forecast models of grass pollen aerobiology as a tool to reduce the health and socioeconomic burden of pollen-sensitive allergic diseases.

History of human impact on Lake Kutubu, Papua New Guinea: The geochemical signatures of oil and gas mining activities in sediments.

Lake Kutubu, a large tropical lake in Papua New Guinea, is well known for its ecological importance; however, there have been recent changes to the pristine nature of this lake due to activities associated with the largest oil and gas project in PNG. The aim of this study was to determine the geochemical profile of sediment cores of Lake Kutubu and to comprehend the contamination changes undergone in this lake due to mining activities utilising the hydraulic fracturing method. Sediment core profiles of Na, Mg, Al, Si, P, Ca, Ti, Cr, Fe, Mn, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Se, Sr, Cd, Ba, Ce, Pb and U, grain size and dating analyses were conducted for five sites in the lake. Grain size and dating demonstrated that the northwest side of Lake Kutubu has sediments of allocthonous origin while the southeast sediments are of autochthonous origin. Ba was the element with the largest changes in concentrations since 1990 and the best tracer of mining activities near the lake. Sites KTB 02 and KTB 10 northwest of the lake showed the most distinct changes in element concentrations. Element enrichment factors (EF = 2.8, 4.2 and 3.2 respectively) demonstrated that Mn, Se and Ba have undergone a moderate enrichment in the lake since mining activities started. Ni, Cd and Se concentrations exceed sediment guidelines in some samples. No guideline is available for Ba, and special attention should be given to this element in this lake. This study demonstrated that Lake Kutubu oil/gas extraction activities are significant sources of elements to this lake and highlights the need for studies on the partitioning and speciation of elements to understand organism metal exposure.

Trans-disciplinary research in synthesis of grass pollen aerobiology and its importance for respiratory health in Australasia.

Grass pollen is a major trigger for allergic rhinitis and asthma, yet little is known about the timing and levels of human exposure to airborne grass pollen across Australasian urban environments. The relationships between environmental aeroallergen exposure and allergic respiratory disease bridge the fields of ecology, aerobiology, geospatial science and public health. The Australian Aerobiology Working Group comprised of experts in botany, palynology, biogeography, climate change science, plant genetics, biostatistics, ecology, pollen allergy, public and environmental health, and medicine, was established to systematically source, collate and analyse atmospheric pollen concentration data from 11 Australian and six New Zealand sites. Following two week-long workshops, post-workshop evaluations were conducted to reflect upon the utility of this analysis and synthesis approach to address complex multidisciplinary questions. This Working Group described i) a biogeographically dependent variation in airborne pollen diversity, ii) a latitudinal gradient in the timing, duration and number of peaks of the grass pollen season, and iii) the emergence of new methodologies based on trans-disciplinary synthesis of aerobiology and remote sensing data. Challenges included resolving methodological variations between pollen monitoring sites and temporal variations in pollen datasets. Other challenges included "marrying" ecosystem and health sciences and reconciling divergent expert opinion. The Australian Aerobiology Working Group facilitated knowledge transfer between diverse scientific disciplines, mentored students and early career scientists, and provided an uninterrupted collaborative opportunity to focus on a unifying problem globally. The Working Group provided a platform to optimise the value of large existing ecological datasets that have importance for human respiratory health and ecosystems research. Compilation of current knowledge of Australasian pollen aerobiology is a critical first step towards the management of exposure to pollen in patients with allergic disease and provides a basis from which the future impacts of climate change on pollen distribution can be assessed and monitored.

Differences in grass pollen allergen exposure across Australia.

OBJECTIVE: Allergic rhinitis and allergic asthma are important chronic diseases posing serious public health issues in Australia with associated medical, economic, and societal burdens. Pollen are significant sources of clinically relevant outdoor aeroallergens, recognised as both a major trigger for, and cause of, allergic respiratory diseases. This study aimed to provide a national, and indeed international, perspective on the state of Australian pollen data using a large representative sample. METHODS: Atmospheric grass pollen concentration is examined over a number of years within the period 1995 to 2013 for Brisbane, Canberra, Darwin, Hobart, Melbourne, and Sydney, including determination of the 'clinical' grass pollen season and grass pollen peak. RESULTS: The results of this study describe, for the first time, a striking spatial and temporal variability in grass pollen seasons in Australia, with important implications for clinicians and public health professionals, and the Australian grass pollen-allergic community. CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrate that static pollen calendars are of limited utility and in some cases misleading. This study also highlights significant deficiencies and limitations in the existing Australian pollen monitoring and data. IMPLICATIONS: Establishment of an Australian national pollen monitoring network would help facilitate advances in the clinical and public health management of the millions of Australians with asthma and allergic rhinitis.

The macroecology of airborne pollen in Australian and New Zealand urban areas.

The composition and relative abundance of airborne pollen in urban areas of Australia and New Zealand are strongly influenced by geographical location, climate and land use. There is mounting evidence that the diversity and quality of airborne pollen is substantially modified by climate change and land-use yet there are insufficient data to project the future nature of these changes. Our study highlights the need for long-term aerobiological monitoring in Australian and New Zealand urban areas in a systematic, standardised, and sustained way, and provides a framework for targeting the most clinically significant taxa in terms of abundance, allergenic effects and public health burden.

Improved assessment of pyrogenic carbon quantity and quality in environmental samples by high-performance liquid chromatography.

The analysis of pyrogenic carbon (PyC) in environmental samples is of great interest, e.g. for carbon cycle assessment, (bio-)char characterization and palaeo-environmental or archeological reconstruction. Here, an HPLC method (HPLC) is presented that reproducibly quantifies benzene polycarboxylic acids (BPCA) as molecular markers for PyC in various kinds of environmental samples. It operates at low pH without requiring an organic modifier and was thoroughly tested with PyC reference materials and a peatland core that served as a feasibility and plausibility check. Compared to the established gas chromatography (GC) method, the HPLC method results in higher BPCA quantification reproducibility by showing a significantly smaller coefficient of variation (HPLC: 5%, GC: 16-23%). It works well with small sample amounts, as for instance from sediment cores and aerosol collectors, and requires less sample preparation work than the GC method. Moreover, the here presented HPLC method facilitates (13)C and (14)C analyses on PyC from environmental samples.

The aftermath of megafaunal extinction: ecosystem transformation in Pleistocene Australia.

Giant vertebrates dominated many Pleistocene ecosystems. Many were herbivores, and their sudden extinction in prehistory could have had large ecological impacts. We used a high-resolution 130,000-year environmental record to help resolve the cause and reconstruct the ecological consequences of extinction of Australia's megafauna. Our results suggest that human arrival rather than climate caused megafaunal extinction, which then triggered replacement of mixed rainforest by sclerophyll vegetation through a combination of direct effects on vegetation of relaxed herbivore pressure and increased fire in the landscape. This ecosystem shift was as large as any effect of climate change over the last glacial cycle, and indicates the magnitude of changes that may have followed megafaunal extinction elsewhere in the world.

Prehistoric human impact on rainforest biodiversity in highland New Guinea.

In the highlands of New Guinea, the development of agriculture as an indigenous innovation during the Early Holocene is considered to have resulted in rapid loss of forest cover, a decrease in forest biodiversity and increased land degradation over thousands of years. But how important is human activity in shaping the diversity of vegetation communities over millennial time-scales? An evaluation of the change in biodiversity of forest habitats through the Late Glacial transition to the present in five palaeoecological sites from highland valleys, where intensive agriculture is practised today, is presented. A detailed analysis of the longest and most continuous record from Papua New Guinea is also presented using available biodiversity indices (palynological richness and biodiversity indicator taxa) as a means of identifying changes in diversity. The analysis shows that the collapse of key forest habitats in the highland valleys is evident during the Mid - Late Holocene. These changes are best explained by the adoption of new land management practices and altered disturbance regimes associated with agricultural activity, though climate change may also play a role. The implications of these findings for ecosystem conservation and sustainability of agriculture in New Guinea are discussed.