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1.
Sci Data ; 11(1): 36, 2024 Jan 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38182596

RESUMO

The Modern Era Reanalysis (ModE-RA) is a global monthly paleo-reanalysis covering the period between 1421 and 2008. To reconstruct past climate fields an offline data assimilation approach is used, blending together information from an ensemble of transient atmospheric model simulations and observations. In the early period, ModE-RA utilizes natural proxies and documentary data, while from the 17th century onward instrumental measurements are also assimilated. The impact of each observation on the reconstruction is stored in the observation feedback archive, which provides additional information on the input data such as preprocessing steps and the regression-based forward models. The monthly resolved reconstructions include estimates of the most important climate fields. Furthermore, we provide a reconstruction, ModE-RAclim, which together with ModE-RA and the model simulations allows to disentangle the role of observations and model forcings. ModE-RA is best suited to study intra-annual to multi-decadal climate variability and to analyze the causes and mechanisms of past extreme climate events.

2.
Nat Commun ; 13(1): 2116, 2022 04 19.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35440103

RESUMO

Annual-to-decadal variability in northern midlatitude temperature is dominated by the cold season. However, climate field reconstructions are often based on tree rings that represent the growing season. Here we present cold-season (October-to-May average) temperature field reconstructions for the northern midlatitudes, 1701-1905, based on extensive phenological data (freezing and thawing dates of rivers, plant observations). Northern midlatitude land temperatures exceeded the variability range of the 18th and 19th centuries by the 1940s, to which recent warming has added another 1.5 °C. A sequences of cold winters 1808/9-1815/6 can be explained by two volcanic eruptions and unusual atmospheric flow. Weak southwesterlies over Western Europe in early winter caused low Eurasian temperatures, which persisted into spring even though the flow pattern did not. Twentieth century data and model simulations confirm this persistence and point to increased snow cover as a cause, consistent with sparse information on Eurasian snow in the early 19th century.


Assuntos
Clima , Neve , Mudança Climática , Estações do Ano , Temperatura
3.
Sci Data ; 8(1): 261, 2021 Oct 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34608148

RESUMO

This paper describes a global monthly gridded Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Sea Ice Concentration (SIC) dataset for the period 1000-1849, which can be used as boundary conditions for atmospheric model simulations. The reconstruction is based on existing coarse-resolution annual temperature ensemble reconstructions, which are then augmented with intra-annual and sub-grid scale variability. The intra-annual component of HadISST.2.0 and oceanic indices estimated from the reconstructed annual mean are used to develop grid-based linear regressions in a monthly stratified approach. Similarly, we reconstruct SIC using analog resampling of HadISST.2.0 SIC (1941-2000), for both hemispheres. Analogs are pooled in four seasons, comprising of 3-months each. The best analogs are selected based on the correlation between each member of the reconstructed SST and its target. For the period 1780 to 1849, We assimilate historical observations of SST and night-time marine air temperature from the ICOADS dataset into our reconstruction using an offline Ensemble Kalman Filter approach. The resulting dataset is physically consistent with information from models, proxies, and observations.

4.
Ecol Evol ; 5(22): 5329-5343, 2015 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30151135

RESUMO

At the intersection of geological activity, climatic fluctuations, and human pressure, the Mediterranean Basin - a hotspot of biodiversity - provides an ideal setting for studying endemism, evolution, and biogeography. Here, we focus on the Roucela complex (Campanula subgenus Roucela), a group of 13 bellflower species found primarily in the eastern Mediterranean Basin. Plastid and low-copy nuclear markers were employed to reconstruct evolutionary relationships and estimate divergence times within the Roucela complex using both concatenation and species tree analyses. Niche modeling, ancestral range estimation, and diversification analyses were conducted to provide further insights into patterns of endemism and diversification through time. Diversification of the Roucela clade appears to have been primarily the result of vicariance driven by the breakup of an ancient landmass. We found geologic events such as the formation of the mid-Aegean trench and the Messinian Salinity Crisis to be historically important in the evolutionary history of this group. Contrary to numerous past studies, the onset of the Mediterranean climate has not promoted diversification in the Roucela complex and, in fact, may be negatively affecting these species. This study highlights the diversity and complexity of historical processes driving plant evolution in the Mediterranean Basin.

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