Predicting Inflammatory Arthritis in At-Risk Persons: Development of Scores for Risk Stratification.

BACKGROUND: Inflammatory arthritis (IA) is an immune-related condition defined by the presence of clinical synovitis. Its most common form is rheumatoid arthritis. OBJECTIVE: To develop scores for predicting IA in at-risk persons using multidimensional biomarkers. DESIGN: Prospective observational cohort study. SETTING: Single-center, Leeds, United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS: Persons with new musculoskeletal symptoms, a positive test result for anticitrullinated protein antibodies, and no clinical synovitis and followed for 48 weeks or more or until IA occurred. MEASUREMENTS: A simple score was developed using logistic regression, and a comprehensive score was developed using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Cox proportional hazards regression. Internal validation with bootstrapping was estimated, and a decision curve analysis was done. RESULTS: Of 455 participants, 32.5% (148 of 455) developed IA, and 15.4% (70 of 455) developed it within 1 year. The simple score identified 249 low-risk participants with a false negative rate of 5% (and 206 high-risk participants with a false-positive rate of 72%). The comprehensive score identified 119 high-risk participants with a false-positive rate of 29% (and 336 low-risk participants with a false-negative rate of 19%); 40% of high-risk participants developed IA within 1 year and 71% within 5 years. LIMITATIONS: External validation is required. Recruitment occurred over 13 years, with lower rates of IA in later years. There was geographic variation in laboratory testing and recruitment availability. CONCLUSION: The simple score identified persons at low risk for IA who were less likely to need secondary care. The comprehensive score identified high-risk persons who could benefit from risk stratification and preventive measures. Both scores may be useful in clinical care and should also be useful in clinical trials. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institute for Health and Care Research Leeds Biomedical Research Centre.

Ultrasound in anti-CCP+ at-risk individuals without clinical synovitis: development of a novel 6-joint protocol for feasible risk prediction.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate, in anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide antibody positive individuals with musculoskeletal symptoms but no clinical synovitis (CCP+ at-risk), the additional value of ultrasound (US) for the prediction of inflammatory arthritis (IA). Furthermore, to define a concise US protocol for feasible risk prediction. METHODS: Demographic and clinical data were collected in 417 CCP+ at-risk (Leeds CCP cohort) with a baseline US scan assessing synovitis and bone erosions in 36 joints, and a follow-up duration ≥24 months. Multivariable binary regression models for IA development at 24 months evaluated routine clinical variables associated with IA alone ("clinical" model) and combined with a 36-joint US scanning protocol ("clinical-US extended" model). A "clinical-US short" model was developed. RESULTS: At 24 months, 92/417 (22.1%) CCP+ at-risk developed IA (median time: 7 months, IQR : 3-12). The "clinical-US extended" model performed better than the "clinical" model (AUC 0.788 vs AUC 0.731 respectively, p< 0.001) with an odds ratio for IA development of 3.18 (95% IC 1.80-5.63) for US synovitis and 2.54 (95% IC 1.21-5.37) for bone erosions. The "clinical-US short" model, which retained the wrists, knees and MTP5 joints, performed better (AUC 0.782) than the "clinical" model (p< 0.001) and similarly (difference in Akaike information criteria <2) to the "clinical-US extended" model. CONCLUSIONS: US provides valuable information for predicting progression to IA in CCP+ individuals both alone and in addition to clinical variables. US synovitis was associated with a threefold increase risk of IA development. A concise US protocol of 6 joints provides clinically feasible risk prediction in CCP+ at-risk.

Rapid onset pembrolizumab-induced inflammatory arthritis diagnosed using musculoskeletal ultrasound.

Immune checkpoint inhibitors have revolutionised the treatment of cancer. While very effective, they commonly cause a wide spectrum of immune-related adverse events. These immune-related adverse events can be fatal and often have significant effects on quality of life. They therefore require prompt recognition and management. We report the case of a woman presenting with widespread joint pain and stiffness 6 hours after her first pembrolizumab infusion. She had no joint swelling on physical examination but an ultrasound scan revealed widespread musculoskeletal inflammation, confirming the diagnosis of inflammatory arthritis. To the best of our knowledge, this is the fastest reported inflammatory arthritis onset following immune checkpoint inhibitor treatment. It highlights the importance of timely imaging in patients on immune checkpoint inhibitors who present with new non-specific musculoskeletal pain. Her symptoms improved dramatically with intramuscular triamcinolone injection.

Factors associated with resolution of ultrasound subclinical synovitis in anti-CCP-positive individuals with musculoskeletal symptoms: a UK prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Subclinical synovitis occurs in a third of individuals at risk of rheumatoid arthritis. The objective of this study was to assess the reversibility of subclinical synovitis in individuals at risk of rheumatoid arthritis who are positive for anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (CCP) antibody with musculoskeletal symptoms and investigate factors associated with its resolution within 12 months. METHODS: We conducted a single-centre, prospective, cohort study in the UK, recruiting individuals aged 18 years or older who were anti-CCP-positive with a new non-specific musculoskeletal symptom but no clinical synovitis. Referrals were made through primary or secondary care. Participants attended a baseline visit, which included a clinical assessment, blood tests, patient questionnaires, and a musculoskeletal ultrasound scan (ie, of wrists and metacarpophalangeal, proximal interphalangeal, and metatarsophalangeal joints), and then follow-up visits every 3 months for the first year, with a repeat ultrasound scan every 12 months. Participants with subclinical synovitis (ie, grey scale ≥1 and power Doppler ≥1) in at least one joint at baseline were selected for this analysis. Investigation of good prognostic factors by 12 months was done first using univariable analysis to identify significant factors in participants with no missing data. Then receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to establish the optimal cutoffs for significant continuous variables. Finally, a modified Poisson regression approach was performed to identify the best prediction model and was adjusted for confounders, using data from all participants, with missing values imputed. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02012764. FINDINGS: Between June 30, 2008, and Feb 24, 2020, 451 participants consented to participate in the CCP study and 122 (27%) individuals had subclinical synovitis at baseline, of whom 90 (74%) had data available at 12 months. Mean age was 54·1 years (SD 12·5), and 63 (70%) of 90 participants were women and 27 (30%) were men. Subclinical synovitis resolved in 43 (48%) of 90 participants, whereas subclinical synovitis persisted in 47 (52%) participants, 27 (57%) of whom developed clinical synovitis within 12 months. In the multivariable analysis, low anti-CCP titre (relative risk [RR] 1·52, 95% CI 1·04-2·22), negative rheumatoid factor (1·54, 0·92-2·58), subclinical synovitis in only one joint (1·62, 1·04-2·50), and an erythrocyte sedimentation rate of 15 mm/h or lower (1·82, 1·15-2·87) were predictors of subclinical synovitis resolution within 12 months (ie, good prognostic factors). ROC curve showed an area under the curve of 0·84 (95% CI 0·76-0·92; p<0·0001). Resolution occurred in seven (100%) of seven participants with all four factors present, and in only one (7%) of 14 participants with none of the factors present. INTERPRETATION: In individuals who were anti-CCP-positive, subclinical synovitis disappeared in approximately half of the participants by 12 months and was associated with the presence of good prognostic factors. Subclinical synovitis should be interpreted in the context of these additional factors. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Leeds Biomedical Research Centre.

When and how should we use imaging in individuals at risk of rheumatoid arthritis?

In recent years rheumatologists have begun to shift focus from early rheumatoid arthritis (RA) to studying individuals at risk of developing the disease. It is now possible to use blood, clinical and imaging biomarkers to identify those at risk of progression before the onset of clinical synovitis. The use of imaging, in particular ultrasound (US) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), has become much more widespread in individuals at-risk of RA. Numerous studies have demonstrated that imaging can help us understand RA pathogenesis as well as identifying individuals at high risk of progression. In addition, imaging techniques are becoming more sophisticated with newer imaging modalities such as high-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HR-pQRCT), nuclear imaging and whole body-MRI (WB-MRI) starting to emerge. Imaging studies in at risk individuals are heterogeneous in nature due to the different at-risk populations, imaging modalities and protocols used. This review will explore the available imaging modalities and the rationale for their use in the main populations at risk of RA.

Defining the Optimal Strategies for Achieving Drug-Free Remission in Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Narrative Review.

Background: It is now accepted that the optimum treatment goal for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is sustained remission, as this has been shown to be associated with the best patient outcomes. There is little guidance on how to manage patients once remission is achieved; however, it is recommended that patients can taper therapy, with a view to discontinuing and achieving drug-free remission if treatment goals are maintained. This narrative review aims to present the current literature on drug-free remission in rheumatoid arthritis, with a view to identifying which strategies are best for disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug (DMARD) tapering and to highlight areas of unmet clinical need. Methods: We performed a narrative review of the literature, which included research articles, meta-analyses and review papers. The key search terms included were rheumatoid arthritis, remission, drug-free remission, b-DMARDS/biologics, cs-DMARDS and tapering. The databases that were searched included PubMed and Google Scholar. For each article, the reference section of the paper was reviewed to find additional relevant articles. Results: It has been demonstrated that DFR is possible in a proportion of RA patients achieving clinically defined remission (both on cs and b-DMARDS). Immunological, imaging and clinical associations with/predictors of DFR have all been identified, including the presence of autoantibodies, absence of Power Doppler (PD) signal on ultrasound (US), lower disease activity according to composite scores of disease activity and lower patient-reported outcome scores (PROs) at treatment cessation. Conclusions: DFR in RA may be an achievable goal in certain patients. This carries importance in reducing medication-induced side-effects and potential toxicity, the burden of taking treatment if not required and cost effectiveness, specifically for biologic therapy. Prospective studies of objective biomarkers will help facilitate the prediction of successful treatment discontinuation.