Recommendations for quantifying and reducing uncertainty in climate projections of species distributions.

Projecting the future distributions of commercially and ecologically important species has become a critical approach for ecosystem managers to strategically anticipate change, but large uncertainties in projections limit climate adaptation planning. Although distribution projections are primarily used to understand the scope of potential change-rather than accurately predict specific outcomes-it is nonetheless essential to understand where and why projections can give implausible results and to identify which processes contribute to uncertainty. Here, we use a series of simulated species distributions, an ensemble of 252 species distribution models, and an ensemble of three regional ocean climate projections, to isolate the influences of uncertainty from earth system model spread and from ecological modeling. The simulations encompass marine species with different functional traits and ecological preferences to more broadly address resource manager and fishery stakeholder needs, and provide a simulated true state with which to evaluate projections. We present our results relative to the degree of environmental extrapolation from historical conditions, which helps facilitate interpretation by ecological modelers working in diverse systems. We found uncertainty associated with species distribution models can exceed uncertainty generated from diverging earth system models (up to 70% of total uncertainty by 2100), and that this result was consistent across species traits. Species distribution model uncertainty increased through time and was primarily related to the degree to which models extrapolated into novel environmental conditions but moderated by how well models captured the underlying dynamics driving species distributions. The predictive power of simulated species distribution models remained relatively high in the first 30 years of projections, in alignment with the time period in which stakeholders make strategic decisions based on climate information. By understanding sources of uncertainty, and how they change at different forecast horizons, we provide recommendations for projecting species distribution models under global climate change.

Contemporary Multimodality Imaging of Primary Hyperparathyroidism.

Primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT) is a disorder characterized by hypercalcemia and an elevated or inappropriately normal parathyroid hormone level. Classic features include bone pain, fractures, renal impairment, nephrolithiasis, and mental disturbance. However, most cases of PHPT are now asymptomatic at diagnosis or associated with nonspecific neurocognitive changes. The most frequent cause of PHPT is a solitary adenoma that secretes parathyroid hormone without the normal suppressive effect of serum calcium. A smaller number of cases can be attributed to multigland disease. Parathyroidectomy is curative and is considered for nearly all affected patients. Although PHPT is primarily a clinical and biochemical diagnosis, imaging is key to the localization of adenomas, which can lie in conventional locations adjacent to the thyroid gland or less commonly at ectopic sites in the neck and mediastinum. In addition, accurate localization facilitates the use of a minimally invasive or targeted surgical approach. Frequently used localization techniques include US, parathyroid scintigraphy, and four-dimensional CT. Second- and third-line modalities such as MRI, PET/CT, and selective venous sampling with or without parathyroid arteriography can increase confidence before surgery. These localization techniques, along with the associated technical aspects, relative advantages, and drawbacks, are described. Local expertise, patient factors, and surgeon preference are important considerations when determining the type and sequence of investigation. A multimodality approach is ultimately desirable, particularly in challenging scenarios such as multigland disease, localization of ectopic adenomas, and persistent or recurrent PHPT. Online supplemental material is available for this article. ©RSNA, 2022.

From the predictable to the unexpected: kelp forest and benthic invertebrate community dynamics following decades of sea otter expansion.

The recovery of predators has the potential to restore ecosystems and fundamentally alter the services they provide. One iconic example of this is keystone predation by sea otters in the Northeast Pacific. Here, we combine spatial time series of sea otter abundance, canopy kelp area, and benthic invertebrate abundance from Washington State, USA, to examine the shifting consequences of sea otter reintroduction for kelp and kelp forest communities. We leverage the spatial variation in sea otter recovery to understand connections between sea otters and the kelp forest community. Sea otter increases created a pronounced decline in sea otter prey-particularly kelp-grazing sea urchins-and led to an expansion of canopy kelps from the late 1980s until roughly 2000. However, while sea otter and kelp population growth rates were positively correlated prior to 2002, this association disappeared over the last two decades. This disconnect occurred despite surveys showing that sea otter prey have continued to decline. Kelp area trends are decoupled from both sea otter and benthic invertebrate abundance at current densities. Variability in kelp abundance has declined in the most recent 15 years, as it has the synchrony in kelp abundance among sites. Together, these findings suggest that initial nearshore community responses to sea otter population expansion follow predictably from trophic cascade theory, but now, other factors may be as or more important in influencing community dynamics. Thus, the utility of sea otter predation in ecosystem restoration must be considered within the context of complex and shifting environmental conditions.

Risks of ocean acidification in the California Current food web and fisheries: ecosystem model projections.

The benefits and ecosystem services that humans derive from the oceans are threatened by numerous global change stressors, one of which is ocean acidification. Here, we describe the effects of ocean acidification on an upwelling system that already experiences inherently low pH conditions, the California Current. We used an end-to-end ecosystem model (Atlantis), forced by downscaled global climate models and informed by a meta-analysis of the pH sensitivities of local taxa, to investigate the direct and indirect effects of future pH on biomass and fisheries revenues. Our model projects a 0.2-unit drop in pH during the summer upwelling season from 2013 to 2063, which results in wide-ranging magnitudes of effects across guilds and functional groups. The most dramatic direct effects of future pH may be expected on epibenthic invertebrates (crabs, shrimps, benthic grazers, benthic detritivores, bivalves), and strong indirect effects expected on some demersal fish, sharks, and epibenthic invertebrates (Dungeness crab) because they consume species known to be sensitive to changing pH. The model's pelagic community, including marine mammals and seabirds, was much less influenced by future pH. Some functional groups were less affected to changing pH in the model than might be expected from experimental studies in the empirical literature due to high population productivity (e.g., copepods, pteropods). Model results suggest strong effects of reduced pH on nearshore state-managed invertebrate fisheries, but modest effects on the groundfish fishery because individual groundfish species exhibited diverse responses to changing pH. Our results provide a set of projections that generally support and build upon previous findings and set the stage for hypotheses to guide future modeling and experimental analysis on the effects of OA on marine ecosystems and fisheries.

Stable Isotope Applications for Understanding Shark Ecology in the Northeast Pacific Ocean.

Stable isotopes are used to address a wide range of ecological questions and can help researchers and managers better understand the movement and trophic ecology of sharks. Here, we review how shark studies from the Northeast Pacific Ocean (NEP) have employed stable isotopes to estimate trophic level and diet composition and infer movement and habitat-use patterns. To date, the number of NEP shark studies that have used stable isotopes is limited, suggesting that the approach is underutilized. To aid shark researchers in understanding the strengths and limitations of the approach, we provide a brief overview of carbon and nitrogen stable isotope trophic discrimination properties (e.g., change in δ15N between predator and prey), tissue sample preparation methods specific to elasmobranchs, and methodological considerations for the estimation of trophic level and diet composition. We suggest that stable isotopes are a potentially powerful tool for addressing basic questions about shark ecology and are perhaps most valuable when combined and analysed with other data types (e.g., stomach contents, tagging data, or other intrinsic biogeochemical markers).

Role of US Contrast Agents in the Assessment of Indeterminate Solid and Cystic Lesions in Native and Transplant Kidneys.

Ultrasonography (US) is often the initial imaging modality employed in the evaluation of renal diseases. Despite improvements in B-mode and Doppler imaging, US still faces limitations in the assessment of focal renal masses and complex cysts as well as the microcirculation. The applications of contrast-enhanced US (CEUS) in the kidneys have dramatically increased to overcome these shortcomings with guidelines underlining their importance. This article describes microbubble contrast agents and their role in renal imaging. Microbubble contrast agents consist of a low solubility complex gas surrounded by a phospholipid shell. Microbubbles are extremely safe and well-tolerated pure intravascular agents that can be used in renal failure and obstruction, where computed tomographic (CT) and magnetic resonance (MR) imaging contrast agents may have deleterious effects. Their intravascular distribution allows for quantitative perfusion analysis of the microcirculation, diagnosis of vascular problems, and qualitative assessment of tumor vascularity and enhancement patterns. Low acoustic power real-time prolonged imaging can be performed without exposure to ionizing radiation and at lower cost than CT or MR imaging. CEUS can accurately distinguish pseudotumors from true tumors. CEUS has been shown to be more accurate than unenhanced US and rivals contrast material-enhanced CT in the diagnosis of malignancy in complex cystic renal lesions and can upstage the Bosniak category. CEUS can demonstrate specific enhancement patterns allowing the differentiation of benign and malignant solid tumors as well as focal inflammatory lesions. In conclusion, CEUS is useful in the characterization of indeterminate renal masses and cysts.

History of contrast enhanced ultrasound (CEUS).

The 50th year of the European Federation of Societies in Ultrasound in Medicine and Biology (EFSUMB) has been celebrated 2022 publishing articles on the history of US. Contrast enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) allows to visualize blood flow and tissue perfusion. CEUS has proven to be safe without risk of nephrotoxicity. The availability of a contrast agent (tracer) for ultrasound imaging allows for the first time a dynamic assessment of tissue perfusion (blood flow and wash-in/wash-out pattern) which is an essential part for the detection and characterisation of pathological tissue and abnormal organ function. It was an outstanding achievement of academic centers in close cooperation with EFSUMB to investigate and validate the clinical potential of this new technology for the diagnosis and monitoring of various diseases and to develop clinical guidelines based on an in-depth assessment of the existing scientific publications. An important part of the implementation of CEUS in clinical practice was the development of contrast-specific imaging modes on the ultrasound scanners (in close cooperation with the machine manufacturers), the optimization of the machine setups for contrast imaging and the education provided to clinical users in form of workshops, webinars, textbooks and scientific congresses.

Sonography of small bowel perforation.

OBJECTIVE: This article aims to illustrate the spectrum of sonographic findings in perforation of the small bowel due to a variety of causes and discusses the potential role of sonography in the diagnosis. CONCLUSION: Although sonography is not the first-line investigation of choice in suspected small intestinal perforation, an understanding of the characteristic appearances seen during general abdominal sonography may aid the radiologist in the early diagnosis. Recognition of small bowel perforation on general abdominal sonography will shorten the time to diagnosis and ultimate surgical management.

Species redistribution creates unequal outcomes for multispecies fisheries under projected climate change.

Climate change drives species distribution shifts, affecting the availability of resources people rely upon for food and livelihoods. These impacts are complex, manifest at local scales, and have diverse effects across multiple species. However, for wild capture fisheries, current understanding is dominated by predictions for individual species at coarse spatial scales. We show that species-specific responses to localized environmental changes will alter the collection of co-occurring species within established fishing footprints along the U.S. West Coast. We demonstrate that availability of the most economically valuable, primary target species is highly likely to decline coastwide in response to warming and reduced oxygen concentrations, while availability of the most abundant, secondary target species will potentially increase. A spatial reshuffling of primary and secondary target species suggests regionally heterogeneous opportunities for fishers to adapt by changing where or what they fish. Developing foresight into the collective responses of species at local scales will enable more effective and tangible adaptation pathways for fishing communities.

Perforated pyloroduodenal peptic ulcer and sonography.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this article is to illustrate the spectrum of sonographic findings in perforated pyloroduodenal peptic ulcer and discuss the potential role of sonography in the diagnosis. CONCLUSION: Although sonography is not the first-line investigation of choice in suspected perforated peptic ulcer, understanding of the characteristic appearances seen during general abdominal sonography may aid the reader in the diagnosis of this important and sometimes overlooked cause of nonspecific abdominal pain. This may shorten time to the diagnosis and ultimate surgical management.

Development of and Gathering Validity Evidence for a Theoretical Test in Contrast-Enhanced Ultrasound.

Contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) is an imaging modality applied in a broad field of medical specialties for diagnostic uses, guidance during biopsy procedures and ablation therapies and sonoporation therapy. Appropriate training and assessment of theoretical and practical competencies are recommended before practicing CEUS, but no validated assessment tools exist. This study was aimed at developing a theoretical multiple-choice question-based test for core CEUS competencies and gathering validity evidence for the test. An expert team developed the test via a Delphi process. The test was administered to medical doctors with varying CEUS experience, and the results were used to evaluate test items, internal-consistency reliability, ability to distinguish between different proficiency levels and to establish a pass/fail score. Validity evidence was gathered according to Messick's framework. The final test with 47 test items could distinguish between operators with and without CEUS experience with acceptable reliability. The pass/fail score led to considerable risk of false positives and negatives. The test may be used as an entry test before learning practical CEUS competencies but is not recommended for certification purposes because of the risk of false positives and negatives.

Contrast enhanced ultrasound in the detection of liver metastases: a prospective multi-centre dose testing study using a perfluorobutane microbubble contrast agent (NC100100).

OBJECTIVE: To conduct a dose testing analysis of perfluorobutane microbubble (NC100100) contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) to determine the optimal dose for detection of liver metastases in patients with extra-hepatic primary malignancy. METHODS: 157 patients were investigated with conventional US and CEUS. CEUS was performed following intravenous administration of perfluorobutane microbubbles (using one dose of either 0.008, 0.08, 0.12 or 0.36 µL/kg body weight). Three blinded off-site readers recorded the number and locations of metastatic lesions detected by US and CEUS. Contrast enhanced CT and MRI were used as the "Standard Of Reference" (SOR). Sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of liver metastasis detection with US versus CEUS, for each dose group were obtained. Dose group analysis was performed using the Chi-square test. RESULTS: 165 metastases were present in 92 patients who each had 1-7 lesions present on the SOR. Sensitivity of US versus CEUS (for all doses combined) was 38% and 67% (p = 0.0001). The 0.12 dose group with CEUS (78%) had significantly higher sensitivity and accuracy (70%) compared to other dose groups (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: The diagnostic performance of CEUS is dose dependent with the 0.12 µL/kg NC100100 dose group showing the greatest sensitivity and accuracy in detection of liver metastases.

Historical and contemporary trophic niche partitioning among Laurentian Great Lakes coregonines.

Anthropogenic activities have significantly altered freshwater fish communities. Extirpations of deepwater coregonines (Coregonus spp.), a diverse group of fish species, have left vast areas of the Laurentian Great Lakes devoid of a deepwater fish community. Currently, fisheries managers are considering restoring populations by reintroducing deepwater coregonines from Lake Superior and Lake Nipigon. However, little is known about the historical ecology of deepwater coregonines, and species characterization has proved difficult. We used stable isotope analysis of museum-preserved and contemporary specimens to investigate if (1) coregonine species historically occupied distinct niches and (2) the pattern of trophic niche partitioning has changed over the last century. Across all lakes, individual species occupied distinct trophic niches, confirming that these species were ecologically distinct. Understanding trophic niche partitioning helps resolve uncertainty about distinctness of species within and across lakes and may provide a better ecological basis for rehabilitation of Great Lakes food webs and ecosystems.

Changes in body size, abundance, and energy allocation in rockfish assemblages of the northeast Pacific.

Fish body size, a key driver of many aspects of fish population biology and ecology, is affected by fisheries that deplete the largest individuals. Rockfish (genus Sebastes) are a diverse group that has been heavily fished on the U.S. West Coast in recent decades. We examined trawl survey data from 1980 to 2001 to determine spatial and temporal trends in body size and density of 16 shelf rockfish species, including six that are considered overfished. Mean individual mass and maximum observed mass declined in the majority of species in one or more zoogeographic regions between central California and Washington. Density changes were far more variable in time and space, but in all regions, density declines were most often associated with large-bodied rockfish. We next estimated the impact of size and density changes on energy consumption and fecundity in a five-species rockfish assemblage that includes bocaccio (S. paucispinis), a large-bodied, overfished species. Indexes of both consumption and fecundity by the assemblage increased in the southern portion of the study area between 1980 and 2001 but decreased in the northern portion. Allocation of energy and reproductive potential within the assemblage shifted dramatically: relative to bocaccio, total energy consumption and fecundity indexes for the other four species increased by orders of magnitude from 1980 to 2001. These changes in community structure may affect the ability of bocaccio and other large rockfish species to recover from overfishing, especially in light of long-term declines in zooplankton production that may also be affecting rockfish size and production. Addressing these issues may require a regional, multispecies management approach.

Characterizing malignant liver lesions with contrast-enhanced ultrasound.

Microbubbles as an ultrasound contrast agent allow characterization of focal liver lesions. This article summarizes the ultrasound appearances and enhancement characteristics of malignant liver lesions, and also discusses its potential use for ultrasound-guided intervention and ablation of liver lesions.

Characterizing benign liver lesions and trauma with contrast-enhanced ultrasound.

Microbubbles as an ultrasound contrast agent allow characterization of focal liver lesions. This article summarizes the ultrasound appearances and enhancement characteristics of benign liver lesions, focal fatty sparing and focal fatty change, and blunt liver trauma.

Multiparametric ultrasonography of the testicles.

Ultrasonography is the standard modality to image the scrotum because it can provide information about volume, echo texture, tissue stiffness and functional information that includes macrovascularization and microvascularization. Indeed, ultrasound imaging is indicated in the presentation of acute scrotal pain and swelling to differentiate between testicular torsion, infarction and inflammation, as well as being the modality of choice when an intrascrotal mass is suspected. Advances in ultrasonography technology have produced new innovative techniques for imaging the scrotum, including grey-scale ultrasound, Doppler ultrasonography, contrast-enhanced ultrasonography and real-time sonoelastography. Each of these techniques provides information that can be useful when diagnosing diseases and disorders of the testicles. Consequently, the standard approach to accurate diagnosis should rely on multiparametric ultrasonography techniques, rather than just one or two techniques in isolation.

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation and severe acute respiratory distress secondary to Legionella: 10 year experience.

Legionella-associated respiratory failure has a high mortality, despite modern ventilation modalities. Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) is used to achieve gas exchange independent of pulmonary function in patients with severe respiratory failure. This was a retrospective review of the management and outcome of patients with Legionella-associated respiratory failure treated with ECMO support in a large ECMO center over the past 10 years. A retrospective review of patients with confirmed Legionella-associated severe respiratory failure managed with ECMO support at a single center. Between 2000 and 2010, 19 patients with severe respiratory failure caused by Legionella were managed with ECMO after failure to respond to conventional intensive care management. Median PaO2/FiO2 ratio was 66 and median pCO2 was 60 torr. Sixteen patients (84%) survived to hospital discharge. Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation should be considered in patients with Legionella-associated respiratory failure, who have failed conventional ventilation.

Modeling climate change impacts on overwintering bald eagles.

Bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) are recovering from severe population declines, and are exerting pressure on food resources in some areas. Thousands of bald eagles overwinter near Puget Sound, primarily to feed on chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) carcasses. We used modeling techniques to examine how anticipated climate changes will affect energetic demands of overwintering bald eagles. We applied a regional downscaling method to two global climate change models to obtain hourly temperature, precipitation, wind, and longwave radiation estimates at the mouths of three Puget Sound tributaries (the Skagit, Hamma Hamma, and Nisqually rivers) in two decades, the 1970s and the 2050s. Climate data were used to drive bald eagle bioenergetics models from December to February for each river, year, and decade. Bald eagle bioenergetics were insensitive to climate change: despite warmer winters in the 2050s, particularly near the Nisqually River, bald eagle food requirements declined only slightly (<1%). However, the warming climate caused salmon carcasses to decompose more rapidly, resulting in 11% to 14% less annual carcass biomass available to eagles in the 2050s. That estimate is likely conservative, as it does not account for decreased availability of carcasses due to anticipated increases in winter stream flow. Future climate-driven declines in winter food availability, coupled with a growing bald eagle population, may force eagles to seek alternate prey in the Puget Sound area or in more remote ecosystems.

Transabdominal ultrasound in the initial assessment of adult bowel diseases.

Transabdominal ultrasound is increasingly chosen as the initial imaging technique in the radiological work-up of bowel abnormalities in adults because ultrasound can provide substantial information about gastrointestinal disorders. In the presence of pathological changes in the intestine, sonographic findings, such as thickening of the bowel wall, changes in the perienteric fat and vascularity, have recognizable and reproducible appearances (Kuzmich et al, 2009). Although the diagnostic quality of ultrasound can be compromised by bowel gas and obesity, ultrasound has a number of strengths, including its ability to allow real-time correlation between the sonographic findings and the area of maximum tenderness combined with excellent spatial resolution, wide availability, lack of radiation and its non-invasive nature. This article illustrates the key sonographic features of commonly encountered bowel disorders in adults and highlights ultrasound techniques that may assist in diagnosis.