The level and trend of road traffic injuries attributable mortality rate in Iran, 1990-2015: a story of successful regulations and a roadmap to design future policies.

BACKGROUND: Road-Traffic-Injuries (RTIs) are predicted to rise up to the fifth leading cause of worldwide death by 2030 and Iran has the third highest RTIs mortality among higher-middle income countries. Although the high mortality of RTI in Iran is a warning, it provides the opportunity to indirectly assess the implemented RTI-related regulations' effectiveness via high-resolution relevant statistics and, hence, Iran could serve as a guide for countries with similar context. In order to do so, we utilized this study to report the time and spatial trends of RTIs-related mortality in different age and sex groups and road user classes in Iran. METHODS: Based on the national death-registration-system (DRS), cemeteries data, and the demographic characteristics, and after addressing incompleteness, we estimated mortality rates using spatiotemporal and Gaussian process regression models. We assessed Pearson seatbelt and helmet use and RTIs-attributable Age-Standardized-Morality-Rate (ASMR) associations. We also predicted RTIs-death-numbers, 2012-2020, by fitting a Generalized Additive Model to assess the status of achieving relevant sustainable development goal (SDG), namely reducing the number of RTIs-related deaths by half. RESULTS: Overall RTIs-attributable death and ASMR at the national level increased from 12.64 [95% UI, 9.52-16.86] to 29.1 [22.76-37.14] per 100,000 people in the time period of 1990-2015. The trend consisted of an increasing segment in 1990-2003 followed by a decreasing part till 2015. The highest percentage of death belonged to the three-or-more-wheels motorized vehicles. Pedestrian injuries percentage increased significantly and the highest mortality rate occurred in 85 years and older individuals. Low prevalence of seatbelt and helmet use were observed in provinces with higher than the median ASMR due to the relevant cause of each. RTIs-attributable death number is expected to reduce by 15.99% till 2020 which is lower than the established SDG goal. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the observed substantial moderation in the RTI-ASMR, Iran is till among the leading countries in terms of the highest mortality rates in the world. The enforced regulations including speed limitations (particularly for elder pedestrians) and mandatory use of seatbelt and helmet (for young adult and male drivers) had a considerable effect on ASMR, nevertheless, the RTI burden reduction needs to be sustained and enhanced.

Alcohol consumption and related disorders in Iran: Results from the National Surveillance of Non-Communicable Diseases' Survey (STEPs) 2016.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol consumption is a public health concern which is illegal in Iran. Moreover, due to cultural and religious beliefs, the available population-based research findings on alcohol consumption are inadequate. We aimed to provide an estimate on alcohol consumption using a large-scale population-based survey in Iran. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The National Surveillance of Non-Communicable Risk Factors in Iran was a population-based survey conducted in 2016. The epidemiologic distribution of alcohol consumption and its related disorders were assessed using weighted survey methods and multiple logistic regression models. Age standardized rates were calculated using Iran's national population census in 2016. RESULTS: At the national level, the prevalence rates of lifetime and current alcohol consumption were 8.00% (95% CI: 7.67-8.32) and 4.04% (95% CI: 3.81-4.27), respectively. The highest prevalence was reported among 25 to 34 year-olds. Individuals of higher socioeconomic status consumed significantly greater levels of alcohol. At provincial level, the highest and lowest percentages of the current alcohol drinking rates in Iran's provinces were, 23.92% (95% CI: 17.56-30.28) and 0.4% (95% CI: 0-1.18) in males, 1.58% (95% CI: 0.22-2.94) and 0% in females, respectively. In urban regions, the highest alcohol consumption rate was more than 22 times greater than the lowest alcohol consumption rate. Current alcohol drinkers were 2 times more prone to injury as compared to nondrinkers (ORadj: 2.0, 95%CI: 1.7, 2.3). CONCLUSION: In Iran, the prevalence of alcohol consumption is low, although there is a considerable variation of alcohol consumption at provincial level as well as in different gender groups. Therefore, preventive WHO-recommended measures should be adopted more seriously by vulnerable groups.

Evaluation of the effect of fixed speed cameras on speeding behavior among Iranian taxi drivers through telematics monitoring.

OBJECTIVE: Installation of speed cameras is a common strategy to reduce over-speeding; however, there is evidence that their efficacy in speed reduction is limited to the proximity of the camera. This study aimed to evaluate driving speeds in relation to the position of cameras among Iranian taxi drivers. METHODS: Speed data were collected from April 2020 to January 2021 via telematics devices (using on-board computer, gyroscope, and GPS) installed on taxis in southern Tehran, Iran. All drivers were males above 20 years of age. Throughout the study, taxi drivers were not changed. Eligible road segments were selected based on: a) not containing any obstacle that would cause speed reduction; b) having ≤5 entry/exit points; c) absence of park and ride or taxi stations; and d) availability of at least 5,000 datapoints. The average speed was compared between the camera- and non-camera zones. Camera zone was defined as the area within 300 meters of the speed cameras. RESULTS: The telematics system included 2,644,846 datapoints gathered from 50 taxis. Two highways' segments with three lanes in each direction were included: Tehran-Varamin (18 taxis, 18,978 datapoints) and Ghadir (17 taxis, 8,203 datapoints). On both highways, speed was significantly lower in the camera zones (Tehran-Varamin: 84.9 ± 12.2 km/h versus 86.7 ± 13.7 km/h; P = 0.005; Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (KS) P < 0.001/Ghadir: 68.7 ± 13.7 versus 73.1 ± 11.3; P = 0.008; KS P < 0.001), indicating a V-shaped distribution of speed near the position of cameras (Presence of Kangaroo effect). Drivers were more likely to exceed speed limits in the non-camera zones compared to camera zones (Tehran-Varamin: 14.6% versus 8.4%/Ghadir: 23.1% versus 17.3%). This effect of the cameras was consistently observed in a subgroup analysis based on time of day (daytime versus nighttime). CONCLUSIONS: Among Iranian taxi drivers in southern Tehran, average speed was significantly lower in the vicinity of speed cameras, suggesting the presence of camera manipulation. Alternative speed control interventions are required to improve the safety of the taxi service.

National and sub-national patterns of mortality from stroke in the Iranian population (1990-2015): Complementary results from the NASBOD study.

BACKGROUND: Iran lacks a population level comprehensive assessment of stroke epidemiology. Using data from the NASBOD Study, we estimated the mortality of stroke among the Iranian population from 1990 to 2015. METHODS: Data were collected from all the available sources including the national death registration system and two major cemeteries. After addressing incompleteness of child and adult death data and by using mixed effect model, spatio-temporal model and Gaussian Process Regression, levels and trends of child and adult mortality were estimated. By considering cause fraction to these estimates; cause specific mortality was estimated. In these process wealth index, urbanization, and years of schooling were used as covariates. RESULTS: In 2015, the age-standardized stroke mortality rate due was 47.76 (95% UI: 34.68-65.03) for males and 40.16 (30.38-5 2.72) for females, per 100,000 population. Stroke occurrence for both ischemic and non-ischemic strokes showed decreasing trends in both sexes after 2001-2002, at national and sub-national levels. The highest and lowest mortality rates between provinces ranged from 52.11 (40.3-66.66) to 24.47 (18.71-31.79) in men and from 65.51 (47.13-89.41) to 30.43 (21.95-41.82) in women per 100,000 population. CONCLUSION: Although age-standardized rates of stroke mortality are falling, in the past three decades, the absolute number of people who have had a stroke has increased. Stroke mortality remains high in Iran.

Prevalence of behavioural risk factors for road-traffic injuries among the Iranian population: findings from STEPs 2016.

BACKGROUND: To achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.6 in Iran, we need to have a comprehensive understanding of the distribution of risky behaviours regarding road-traffic injuries at national and sub-national levels. Little is known about the road-use vulnerability patterns of road-traffic injuries in Iran. The aim of this study is to describe the prevalence of self-reported human risk factors in road-traffic injuries using the findings from a large-scale cross-sectional study based on the World Health Organization's stepwise approach to surveillance of non-communicable diseases (STEPs). METHODS: A cross-sectional survey study in 2016 assessed the road-use pattern and prevalence of risky behaviours of people more than 18 years old. In this study, we planned to recruit 31 050 individuals as a representative sample at national and provincial levels. In practice, 30 541 individuals (3105 clusters) from urban and rural areas of Iran were selected. Basic socio-demographic data, major behavioural risk factors such as seatbelt and helmet non-compliance, drunk driving and occupant in a car with a drunk driver were assessed through baseline interviews gathered through an Android tablet-based questionnaire. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of seatbelt and helmet compliance was 75.2% (95% confidence interval: 74.7-75.7) and 13.9% (13.4-14.5), respectively, at the national level. The prevalence of risk-taking behaviours such as drink driving was 0.5% (0.4-0.6) and for being an occupant in a car with a drunk driver was 3.5% (3.2-3.8). At the provincial level, the highest age-standardized prevalence of seatbelt compliance (89.6%) was almost 1.5 times higher than the lowest provincial prevalence (58.5%). In 63% of provinces, the lowest prevalence of seatbelt compliance was observed among people aged 18-24 years old. CONCLUSIONS: In Iran, existing disease-prevention and health-promotion programmes should be expanded to target vulnerable subgroups that have more prevalent human risk factors for road-traffic injuries. Further research is required to investigate the context-specific proximal human risk factors and vulnerability patterns in Iran.

Liver cirrhosis mortality at national and provincial levels in Iran between 1990 and 2015: A meta regression analysis.

BACKGROUND: Liver cirrhosis mortality number has increased over the last decades. We aimed to estimate the liver cirrhosis mortality rate and its trends for the first time by sex, age, geographical distribution, and cause in Iran. METHOD: Iranian Death Registration System, along with demographic (Complete and Summary Birth History, Maternal Age Cohort and Period methods) and statistical methods (Spatio-temporal and Gaussian process regression models) were used to address the incompleteness and misclassification and uncertainty of death registration system to estimate annual cirrhosis mortality rate. Percentages of deaths were proportionally redistributed into cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, C and alcohol use based on the data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 study. RESULTS: Liver cirrhosis mortality in elder patients was 12 times higher than that in younger patients at national level in 2015. Over the 26 years, liver cirrhosis mortality in males has increased more than that in females. Plus, the percentage of change in age adjusted mortality rate at provincial levels varied between decreases of 64.53% to nearly 17% increase. Mortality rate has increased until 2002 and then decreased until 2015.The province with highest mortality rate in 2015 has nearly two times greater rate compare to the lowest. More than 60% of liver cirrhosis mortality cases at national level are caused by hepatitis B and C infection. The rate of hepatitis B mortality is four times more than that from hepatitis C. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated an increasing and then decreasing pattern in cirrhosis mortality that could be due to national vaccination of hepatitis B program. However monitoring, early detection and treatment of risk factors of cirrhosis, mainly in high risk age groups and regions are essential. Cirrhosis mortality could be diminished by using new non-invasive methods of cirrhosis screening, hepatitis B vaccination, definite treatment of hepatitis C.