Cell Decision Making through the Lens of Bayesian Learning.

Cell decision making refers to the process by which cells gather information from their local microenvironment and regulate their internal states to create appropriate responses. Microenvironmental cell sensing plays a key role in this process. Our hypothesis is that cell decision-making regulation is dictated by Bayesian learning. In this article, we explore the implications of this hypothesis for internal state temporal evolution. By using a timescale separation between internal and external variables on the mesoscopic scale, we derive a hierarchical Fokker-Planck equation for cell-microenvironment dynamics. By combining this with the Bayesian learning hypothesis, we find that changes in microenvironmental entropy dominate the cell state probability distribution. Finally, we use these ideas to understand how cell sensing impacts cell decision making. Notably, our formalism allows us to understand cell state dynamics even without exact biochemical information about cell sensing processes by considering a few key parameters.

Roadmap on plasticity and epigenetics in cancer.

The role of plasticity and epigenetics in shaping cancer evolution and response to therapy has taken center stage with recent technological advances including single cell sequencing. This roadmap article is focused on state-of-the-art mathematical and experimental approaches to interrogate plasticity in cancer, and addresses the following themes and questions: is there a formal overarching framework that encompasses both non-genetic plasticity and mutation-driven somatic evolution? How do we measure and model the role of the microenvironment in influencing/controlling non-genetic plasticity? How can we experimentally study non-genetic plasticity? Which mathematical techniques are required or best suited? What are the clinical and practical applications and implications of these concepts?

BIO-LGCA: A cellular automaton modelling class for analysing collective cell migration.

Collective dynamics in multicellular systems such as biological organs and tissues plays a key role in biological development, regeneration, and pathological conditions. Collective tissue dynamics-understood as population behaviour arising from the interplay of the constituting discrete cells-can be studied with on- and off-lattice agent-based models. However, classical on-lattice agent-based models, also known as cellular automata, fail to replicate key aspects of collective migration, which is a central instance of collective behaviour in multicellular systems. To overcome drawbacks of classical on-lattice models, we introduce an on-lattice, agent-based modelling class for collective cell migration, which we call biological lattice-gas cellular automaton (BIO-LGCA). The BIO-LGCA is characterised by synchronous time updates, and the explicit consideration of individual cell velocities. While rules in classical cellular automata are typically chosen ad hoc, rules for cell-cell and cell-environment interactions in the BIO-LGCA can also be derived from experimental cell migration data or biophysical laws for individual cell migration. We introduce elementary BIO-LGCA models of fundamental cell interactions, which may be combined in a modular fashion to model complex multicellular phenomena. We exemplify the mathematical mean-field analysis of specific BIO-LGCA models, which allows to explain collective behaviour. The first example predicts the formation of clusters in adhesively interacting cells. The second example is based on a novel BIO-LGCA combining adhesive interactions and alignment. For this model, our analysis clarifies the nature of the recently discovered invasion plasticity of breast cancer cells in heterogeneous environments.

Hook length of the bacterial flagellum is optimized for maximal stability of the flagellar bundle.

Most bacteria swim in liquid environments by rotating one or several flagella. The long external filament of the flagellum is connected to a membrane-embedded basal body by a flexible universal joint, the hook, which allows the transmission of motor torque to the filament. The length of the hook is controlled on a nanometer scale by a sophisticated molecular ruler mechanism. However, why its length is stringently controlled has remained elusive. We engineered and studied a diverse set of hook-length variants of Salmonella enterica. Measurements of plate-assay motility, single-cell swimming speed, and directional persistence in quasi-2D and population-averaged swimming speed and body angular velocity in 3D revealed that the motility performance is optimal around the wild-type hook length. We conclude that too-short hooks may be too stiff to function as a junction and too-long hooks may buckle and create instability in the flagellar bundle. Accordingly, peritrichously flagellated bacteria move most efficiently as the distance travelled per body rotation is maximal and body wobbling is minimized. Thus, our results suggest that the molecular ruler mechanism evolved to control flagellar hook growth to the optimal length consistent with efficient bundle formation. The hook-length control mechanism is therefore a prime example of how bacteria evolved elegant but robust mechanisms to maximize their fitness under specific environmental constraints.

Close to Optimal Cell Sensing Ensures the Robustness of Tissue Differentiation Process: The Avian Photoreceptor Mosaic Case.

The way that progenitor cell fate decisions and the associated environmental sensing are regulated to ensure the robustness of the spatial and temporal order in which cells are generated towards a fully differentiating tissue still remains elusive. Here, we investigate how cells regulate their sensing intensity and radius to guarantee the required thermodynamic robustness of a differentiated tissue. In particular, we are interested in finding the conditions where dedifferentiation at cell level is possible (microscopic reversibility), but tissue maintains its spatial order and differentiation integrity (macroscopic irreversibility). In order to tackle this, we exploit the recently postulated Least microEnvironmental Uncertainty Principle (LEUP) to develop a theory of stochastic thermodynamics for cell differentiation. To assess the predictive and explanatory power of our theory, we challenge it against the avian photoreceptor mosaic data. By calibrating a single parameter, the LEUP can predict the cone color spatial distribution in the avian retina and, at the same time, suggest that such a spatial pattern is associated with quasi-optimal cell sensing. By means of the stochastic thermodynamics formalism, we find out that thermodynamic robustness of differentiated tissues depends on cell metabolism and cell sensing properties. In turn, we calculate the limits of the cell sensing radius that ensure the robustness of differentiated tissue spatial order. Finally, we further constrain our model predictions to the avian photoreceptor mosaic.

Mechanical Control of Cell Proliferation Increases Resistance to Chemotherapeutic Agents.

While many cellular mechanisms leading to chemotherapeutic resistance have been identified, there is an increasing realization that tumor-stroma interactions also play an important role. In particular, mechanical alterations are inherent to solid cancer progression and profoundly impact cell physiology. Here, we explore the influence of compressive stress on the efficacy of chemotherapeutics in pancreatic cancer spheroids. We find that increased compressive stress leads to decreased drug efficacy. Theoretical modeling and experiments suggest that mechanical stress decreases cell proliferation which in turn reduces the efficacy of chemotherapeutics that target proliferating cells. Our work highlights a mechanical form of drug resistance and suggests new strategies for therapy.

A minimal modeling framework of radiation and immune system synergy to assist radiotherapy planning.

Recent evidence indicates the ability of radiotherapy to induce local and systemic tumor-specific immune responses as a result of immunogenic cell death. However, fractionation regimes routinely used in clinical practice typically ignore the synergy between radiation and the immune system, and instead attempt to completely eradicate tumors by the direct lethal effect of radiation on cancer cells. This paradigm is expected to change in the near future due to the potential benefits of considering radiation-induced antitumor immunity during treatment planning. Towards this goal, we propose a minimal modeling framework based on key aspects of the tumor-immune system interplay to simulate the effects of radiation on tumors and the immunological consequences of radiotherapy. The impacts of tumor-associated vasculature and intratumoral oxygen-mediated heterogeneity on treatment outcomes are ininvestigated. The model provides estimates of the minimum radiation doses required for tumor eradication given a certain number of treatment fractions. Moreover, estimates of treatment duration for disease control given predetermined fractional radiation doses can be also obtained. Although theoretical in nature, this study motivates the development and establishment of immune-based decision-support tools in radiotherapy planning.

Decreased plasma phospholipid concentrations and increased acid sphingomyelinase activity are accurate biomarkers for community-acquired pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: There continues to be a great need for better biomarkers and host-directed treatment targets for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Alterations in phospholipid metabolism may constitute a source of small molecule biomarkers for acute infections including CAP. Evidence from animal models of pulmonary infections and sepsis suggests that inhibiting acid sphingomyelinase (which releases ceramides from sphingomyelins) may reduce end-organ damage. METHODS: We measured concentrations of 105 phospholipids, 40 acylcarnitines, and 4 ceramides, as well as acid sphingomyelinase activity, in plasma from patients with CAP (n = 29, sampled on admission and 4 subsequent time points), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbation with infection (COPD, n = 13) as a clinically important disease control, and 33 age- and sex-matched controls. RESULTS: Phospholipid concentrations were greatly decreased in CAP and normalized along clinical improvement. Greatest changes were seen in phosphatidylcholines, followed by lysophosphatidylcholines, sphingomyelins and ceramides (three of which were upregulated), and were least in acylcarnitines. Changes in COPD were less pronounced, but also differed qualitatively, e.g. by increases in selected sphingomyelins. We identified highly accurate biomarkers for CAP (AUC ≤ 0.97) and COPD (AUC ≤ 0.93) vs. Controls, and moderately accurate biomarkers for CAP vs. COPD (AUC ≤ 0.83), all of which were phospholipids. Phosphatidylcholines, lysophosphatidylcholines, and sphingomyelins were also markedly decreased in S. aureus-infected human A549 and differentiated THP1 cells. Correlations with C-reactive protein and procalcitonin were predominantly negative but only of mild-to-moderate extent, suggesting that these markers reflect more than merely inflammation. Consistent with the increased ceramide concentrations, increased acid sphingomyelinase activity accurately distinguished CAP (fold change = 2.8, AUC = 0.94) and COPD (1.75, 0.88) from Controls and normalized with clinical resolution. CONCLUSIONS: The results underscore the high potential of plasma phospholipids as biomarkers for CAP, begin to reveal differences in lipid dysregulation between CAP and infection-associated COPD exacerbation, and suggest that the decreases in plasma concentrations are at least partially determined by changes in host target cells. Furthermore, they provide validation in clinical blood samples of acid sphingomyelinase as a potential treatment target to improve clinical outcome of CAP.

Image analysis of immune cell patterns in the human mammary gland during the menstrual cycle refines lymphocytic lobulitis.

PURPOSE: To improve microscopic evaluation of immune cells relevant in breast cancer oncoimmunology, we aim at distinguishing normal infiltration patterns from lymphocytic lobulitis by advanced image analysis. We consider potential immune cell variations due to the menstrual cycle and oral contraceptives in non-neoplastic mammary gland tissue. METHODS: Lymphocyte and macrophage distributions were analyzed in the anatomical context of the resting mammary gland in immunohistochemically stained digital whole slide images obtained from 53 reduction mammoplasty specimens. Our image analysis workflow included automated regions of interest detection, immune cell recognition, and co-registration of regions of interest. RESULTS: In normal lobular epithelium, seven CD8[Formula: see text] lymphocytes per 100 epithelial cells were present on average and about 70% of this T-lymphocyte population was lined up along the basal cell layer in close proximity to the epithelium. The density of CD8[Formula: see text] T-cell was 1.6 fold higher in the luteal than in the follicular phase in spontaneous menstrual cycles and 1.4 fold increased under the influence of oral contraceptives, and not co-localized with epithelial proliferation. CD4[Formula: see text] T-cells were infrequent. Abundant CD163[Formula: see text] macrophages were widely spread, including the interstitial compartment, with minor variation during the menstrual cycle. CONCLUSIONS: Spatial patterns of different immune cell subtypes determine the range of normal, as opposed to inflammatory conditions of the breast tissue microenvironment. Advanced image analysis enables quantification of hormonal effects, refines lymphocytic lobulitis, and shows potential for comprehensive biopsy evaluation in oncoimmunology.

In silico analysis of cell cycle synchronisation effects in radiotherapy of tumour spheroids.

Tumour cells show a varying susceptibility to radiation damage as a function of the current cell cycle phase. While this sensitivity is averaged out in an unperturbed tumour due to unsynchronised cell cycle progression, external stimuli such as radiation or drug doses can induce a resynchronisation of the cell cycle and consequently induce a collective development of radiosensitivity in tumours. Although this effect has been regularly described in experiments it is currently not exploited in clinical practice and thus a large potential for optimisation is missed. We present an agent-based model for three-dimensional tumour spheroid growth which has been combined with an irradiation damage and kinetics model. We predict the dynamic response of the overall tumour radiosensitivity to delivered radiation doses and describe corresponding time windows of increased or decreased radiation sensitivity. The degree of cell cycle resynchronisation in response to radiation delivery was identified as a main determinant of the transient periods of low and high radiosensitivity enhancement. A range of selected clinical fractionation schemes is examined and new triggered schedules are tested which aim to maximise the effect of the radiation-induced sensitivity enhancement. We find that the cell cycle resynchronisation can yield a strong increase in therapy effectiveness, if employed correctly. While the individual timing of sensitive periods will depend on the exact cell and radiation types, enhancement is a universal effect which is present in every tumour and accordingly should be the target of experimental investigation. Experimental observables which can be assessed non-invasively and with high spatio-temporal resolution have to be connected to the radiosensitivity enhancement in order to allow for a possible tumour-specific design of highly efficient treatment schedules based on induced cell cycle synchronisation.

Comparative Analysis of Biomarkers in Type 2 Diabetes Patients With and Without Comorbidities: Insights Into the Role of Hypertension and Cardiovascular Disease.

Background: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are 90% of diabetes cases, and its prevalence and incidence, including comorbidities, are rising worldwide. Clinically, diabetes and associated comorbidities are identified by biochemical and physical characteristics including glycemia, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), and tests for cardiovascular, eye and kidney disease. Objectives: Diabetes may have a common etiology based on inflammation and oxidative stress that may provide additional information about disease progression and treatment options. Thus, identifying high-risk individuals can delay or prevent diabetes and its complications. Design: In patients with or without hypertension and cardiovascular disease, as part of progression from no diabetes to T2DM, this research studied the changes in biomarkers between control and prediabetes, prediabetes to T2DM, and control to T2DM, and classified patients based on first-attendance data. Control patients and patients with hypertension, cardiovascular, and with both hypertension and cardiovascular diseases are 156, 148, 61, and 216, respectively. Methods: Linear discriminant analysis is used for classification method and feature importance, This study examined the relationship between Humanin and mitochondrial protein (MOTSc), mitochondrial peptides associated with oxidative stress, diabetes progression, and associated complications. Results: MOTSc, reduced glutathione and glutathione disulfide ratio (GSH/GSSG), interleukin-1ß (IL-1ß), and 8-isoprostane were significant (P < .05) for the transition from prediabetes to t2dm, highlighting importance of mitochondrial involvement. complement component 5a (c5a) is a biomarker associated with disease progression and comorbidities, gsh gssg, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (mcp-1), 8-isoprostane being most important biomarkers. Conclusions: Comorbidities affect the hypothesized biomarkers as diabetes progresses. Mitochondrial oxidative stress indicators, coagulation, and inflammatory markers help assess diabetes disease development and provide appropriate medications. Future studies will examine longitudinal biomarker evolution.

The impact of tumor associated macrophages on tumor biology under the lens of mathematical modelling: A review.

In this article, we review the role of mathematical modelling to elucidate the impact of tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs) in tumor progression and therapy design. We first outline the biology of TAMs, and its current application in tumor therapies, and their experimental methods that provide insights into tumor cell-macrophage interactions. We then focus on the mechanistic mathematical models describing the role of macrophages as drug carriers, the impact of macrophage polarized activation on tumor growth, and the role of tumor microenvironment (TME) parameters on the tumor-macrophage interactions. This review aims to identify the synergies between biological and mathematical approaches that allow us to translate knowledge on fundamental TAMs biology in addressing current clinical challenges.

Optimal vaccine roll-out strategies including social distancing for pandemics.

Non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs), principally social distancing, in combination with effective vaccines, aspire to develop a protective immunity shield against pandemics and particularly against the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, an agent-based network model with small-world topology is employed to find optimal policies against pandemics, including social distancing and vaccination strategies. The agents' states are characterized by a variation of the SEIR model (susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered). To explore optimal policies, an equation-free method is proposed to solve the inverse problem of calibrating an agent's infection rate with respect to the vaccination efficacy. The results show that prioritizing the first vaccine dose in combination with mild social restrictions, is sufficient to control the pandemic, with respect to the number of deaths. Moreover, for the same mild number of social contacts, we find an optimal vaccination ratio of 0.85 between older people of ages > 65 compared to younger ones.

In silico predicted therapy against chronic Staphylococcus aureus infection leads to bacterial clearance in vivo.

Staphylococcus aureus can lead to chronic infections and abscesses in internal organs including kidneys, which are associated with the expansion of myeloid-derived suppressor cells (MDSCs) and their suppressive effect on T cells. Here, we developed a mathematical model of chronic S. aureus infection that incorporates the T-cell suppression by MDSCs and suggests therapeutic strategies for S. aureus clearance. A therapeutic protocol with heat-killed S. aureus (HKSA) was quantified in silico and tested in vivo. Contrary to the conventional administration of heat-killed bacteria as vaccination prior to infection, we administered HKSA as treatment in chronically infected hosts. Our treatment eliminated S. aureus in kidneys of all chronically S. aureus-infected mice, reduced MDSCs, and reversed T-cell dysfunction by inducing acute inflammation during ongoing, chronic infection. This study is a guideline for a treatment protocol against chronic S. aureus infection and renal abscesses by repurposing heat-killed treatments, directed by mathematical modeling.

Understanding fibrosis pathogenesis via modeling macrophage-fibroblast interplay in immune-metabolic context.

Fibrosis is a progressive biological condition, leading to organ dysfunction in various clinical settings. Although fibroblasts and macrophages are known as key cellular players for fibrosis development, a comprehensive functional model that considers their interaction in the metabolic/immunologic context of fibrotic tissue has not been set up. Here we show, by transcriptome-based mathematical modeling in an in vitro system that represents macrophage-fibroblast interplay and reflects the functional effects of inflammation, hypoxia and the adaptive immune context, that irreversible fibrosis development is associated with specific combinations of metabolic and inflammatory cues. The in vitro signatures are in good alignment with transcriptomic profiles generated on laser captured glomeruli and cortical tubule-interstitial area, isolated from human transplanted kidneys with advanced stages of glomerulosclerosis and interstitial fibrosis/tubular atrophy, two clinically relevant conditions associated with organ failure in renal allografts. The model we describe here is validated on tissue based quantitative immune-phenotyping of biopsies from transplanted kidneys, demonstrating its feasibility. We conclude that the combination of in vitro and in silico modeling represents a powerful systems medicine approach to dissect fibrosis pathogenesis, applicable to specific pathological conditions, and develop coordinated targeted approaches.

Inferring the effect of interventions on COVID-19 transmission networks.

Countries around the world implement nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Design of efficient NPIs requires identification of the structure of the disease transmission network. We here identify the key parameters of the COVID-19 transmission network for time periods before, during, and after the application of strict NPIs for the first wave of COVID-19 infections in Germany combining Bayesian parameter inference with an agent-based epidemiological model. We assume a Watts-Strogatz small-world network which allows to distinguish contacts within clustered cliques and unclustered, random contacts in the population, which have been shown to be crucial in sustaining the epidemic. In contrast to other works, which use coarse-grained network structures from anonymized data, like cell phone data, we consider the contacts of individual agents explicitly. We show that NPIs drastically reduced random contacts in the transmission network, increased network clustering, and resulted in a previously unappreciated transition from an exponential to a constant regime of new cases. In this regime, the disease spreads like a wave with a finite wave speed that depends on the number of contacts in a nonlinear fashion, which we can predict by mean field theory.

Improving personalized tumor growth predictions using a Bayesian combination of mechanistic modeling and machine learning.

Background: In clinical practice, a plethora of medical examinations are conducted to assess the state of a patient's pathology producing a variety of clinical data. However, investigation of these data faces two major challenges. Firstly, we lack the knowledge of the mechanisms involved in regulating these data variables, and secondly, data collection is sparse in time since it relies on patient's clinical presentation. The former limits the predictive accuracy of clinical outcomes for any mechanistic model. The latter restrains any machine learning algorithm to accurately infer the corresponding disease dynamics. Methods: Here, we propose a novel method, based on the Bayesian coupling of mathematical modeling and machine learning, aiming at improving individualized predictions by addressing the aforementioned challenges. Results: We evaluate the proposed method on a synthetic dataset for brain tumor growth and analyze its performance in predicting two relevant clinical outputs. The method results in improved predictions in almost all simulated patients, especially for those with a late clinical presentation (>95% patients show improvements compared to standard mathematical modeling). In addition, we test the methodology in two additional settings dealing with real patient cohorts. In both cases, namely cancer growth in chronic lymphocytic leukemia and ovarian cancer, predictions show excellent agreement with reported clinical outcomes (around 60% reduction of mean squared error). Conclusions: We show that the combination of machine learning and mathematical modeling approaches can lead to accurate predictions of clinical outputs in the context of data sparsity and limited knowledge of disease mechanisms.

Investigating the Physical Effects in Bacterial Therapies for Avascular Tumors.

Tumor-targeting bacteria elicit anticancer effects by infiltrating hypoxic regions, releasing toxic agents and inducing immune responses. Although current research has largely focused on the influence of chemical and immunological aspects on the mechanisms of bacterial therapy, the impact of physical effects is still elusive. Here, we propose a mathematical model for the anti-tumor activity of bacteria in avascular tumors that takes into account the relevant chemo-mechanical effects. We consider a time-dependent administration of bacteria and analyze the impact of bacterial chemotaxis and killing rate. We show that active bacterial migration toward tumor hypoxic regions provides optimal infiltration and that high killing rates combined with high chemotactic values provide the smallest tumor volumes at the end of the treatment. We highlight the emergence of steady states in which a small population of bacteria is able to constrain tumor growth. Finally, we show that bacteria treatment works best in the case of tumors with high cellular proliferation and low oxygen consumption.

Modelling collective cell motion: are on- and off-lattice models equivalent?

Biological processes, such as embryonic development, wound repair and cancer invasion, or bacterial swarming and fruiting body formation, involve collective motion of cells as a coordinated group. Collective cell motion of eukaryotic cells often includes interactions that result in polar alignment of cell velocities, while bacterial patterns typically show features of apolar velocity alignment. For analysing the population-scale effects of these different alignment mechanisms, various on- and off-lattice agent-based models have been introduced. However, discriminating model-specific artefacts from general features of collective cell motion is challenging. In this work, we focus on equivalence criteria at the population level to compare on- and off-lattice models. In particular, we define prototypic off- and on-lattice models of polar and apolar alignment, and show how to obtain an on-lattice from an off-lattice model of velocity alignment. By characterizing the behaviour and dynamical description of collective migration models at the macroscopic level, we suggest the type of phase transitions and possible patterns in the approximative macroscopic partial differential equation descriptions as informative equivalence criteria between on- and off-lattice models. This article is part of the theme issue 'Multi-scale analysis and modelling of collective migration in biological systems'.

A least microenvironmental uncertainty principle (LEUP) as a generative model of collective cell migration mechanisms.

Collective migration is commonly observed in groups of migrating cells, in the form of swarms or aggregates. Mechanistic models have proven very useful in understanding collective cell migration. Such models, either explicitly consider the forces involved in the interaction and movement of individuals or phenomenologically define rules which mimic the observed behavior of cells. However, mechanisms leading to collective migration are varied and specific to the type of cells involved. Additionally, the precise and complete dynamics of many important chemomechanical factors influencing cell movement, from signalling pathways to substrate sensing, are typically either too complex or largely unknown. The question is how to make quantitative/qualitative predictions of collective behavior without exact mechanistic knowledge. Here we propose the least microenvironmental uncertainty principle (LEUP) that may serve as a generative model of collective migration without precise incorporation of full mechanistic details. Using statistical physics tools, we show that the famous Vicsek model is a special case of LEUP. Finally, to test the biological applicability of our theory, we apply LEUP to construct a model of the collective behavior of spherical Serratia marcescens bacteria, where the underlying migration mechanisms remain elusive.