Global seasonal forecasts of marine heatwaves.

Marine heatwaves (MHWs)-periods of exceptionally warm ocean temperature lasting weeks to years-are now widely recognized for their capacity to disrupt marine ecosystems1-3. The substantial ecological and socioeconomic impacts of these extreme events present significant challenges to marine resource managers4-7, who would benefit from forewarning of MHWs to facilitate proactive decision-making8-11. However, despite extensive research into the physical drivers of MHWs11,12, there has been no comprehensive global assessment of our ability to predict these events. Here we use a large multimodel ensemble of global climate forecasts13,14 to develop and assess MHW forecasts that cover the world's oceans with lead times of up to a year. Using 30 years of retrospective forecasts, we show that the onset, intensity and duration of MHWs are often predictable, with skilful forecasts possible from 1 to 12 months in advance depending on region, season and the state of large-scale climate modes, such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. We discuss considerations for setting decision thresholds based on the probability that a MHW will occur, empowering stakeholders to take appropriate actions based on their risk profile. These results highlight the potential for operational MHW forecasts, analogous to forecasts of extreme weather phenomena, to promote climate resilience in global marine ecosystems.

Baleen whale prey consumption based on high-resolution foraging measurements.

Baleen whales influence their ecosystems through immense prey consumption and nutrient recycling1-3. It is difficult to accurately gauge the magnitude of their current or historic ecosystem role without measuring feeding rates and prey consumed. To date, prey consumption of the largest species has been estimated using metabolic models3-9 based on extrapolations that lack empirical validation. Here, we used tags deployed on seven baleen whale (Mysticeti) species (n = 321 tag deployments) in conjunction with acoustic measurements of prey density to calculate prey consumption at daily to annual scales from the Atlantic, Pacific, and Southern Oceans. Our results suggest that previous studies3-9 have underestimated baleen whale prey consumption by threefold or more in some ecosystems. In the Southern Ocean alone, we calculate that pre-whaling populations of mysticetes annually consumed 430 million tonnes of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba), twice the current estimated total biomass of E. superba10, and more than twice the global catch of marine fisheries today11. Larger whale populations may have supported higher productivity in large marine regions through enhanced nutrient recycling: our findings suggest mysticetes recycled 1.2 × 104 tonnes iron yr-1 in the Southern Ocean before whaling compared to 1.2 × 103 tonnes iron yr-1 recycled by whales today. The recovery of baleen whales and their nutrient recycling services2,3,7 could augment productivity and restore ecosystem function lost during 20th century whaling12,13.

Trade-offs between bycatch and target catches in static versus dynamic fishery closures.

While there have been recent improvements in reducing bycatch in many fisheries, bycatch remains a threat for numerous species around the globe. Static spatial and temporal closures are used in many places as a tool to reduce bycatch. However, their effectiveness in achieving this goal is uncertain, particularly for highly mobile species. We evaluated evidence for the effects of temporal, static, and dynamic area closures on the bycatch and target catch of 15 fisheries around the world. Assuming perfect knowledge of where the catch and bycatch occurs and a closure of 30% of the fishing area, we found that dynamic area closures could reduce bycatch by an average of 57% without sacrificing catch of target species, compared to 16% reductions in bycatch achievable by static closures. The degree of bycatch reduction achievable for a certain quantity of target catch was related to the correlation in space and time between target and bycatch species. If the correlation was high, it was harder to find an area to reduce bycatch without sacrificing catch of target species. If the goal of spatial closures is to reduce bycatch, our results suggest that dynamic management provides substantially better outcomes than classic static marine area closures. The use of dynamic ocean management might be difficult to implement and enforce in many regions. Nevertheless, dynamic approaches will be increasingly valuable as climate change drives species and fisheries into new habitats or extended ranges, altering species-fishery interactions and underscoring the need for more responsive and flexible regulatory mechanisms.

Submesoscale coupling of krill and whales revealed by aggregative Lagrangian coherent structures.

In the marine environment, dynamic physical processes shape biological productivity and predator-prey interactions across multiple scales. Identifying pathways of physical-biological coupling is fundamental to understand the functioning of marine ecosystems yet it is challenging because the interactions are difficult to measure. We examined submesoscale (less than 100 km) surface current features using remote sensing techniques alongside ship-based surveys of krill and baleen whale distributions in the California Current System. We found that aggregative surface current features, represented by Lagrangian coherent structures (LCS) integrated over temporal scales between 2 and 10 days, were associated with increased (a) krill density (up to 2.6 times more dense), (b) baleen whale presence (up to 8.3 times more likely) and (c) subsurface seawater density (at depths up to 10 m). The link between physical oceanography, krill density and krill-predator distributions suggests that LCS are important features that drive the flux of energy and nutrients across trophic levels. Our results may help inform dynamic management strategies aimed at reducing large whales ship strikes and help assess the potential impacts of environmental change on this critical ecosystem.

An anchovy ecosystem indicator of marine predator foraging and reproduction.

Forage fishes are key energy conduits that transfer primary and secondary productivity to higher trophic levels. As novel environmental conditions caused by climate change alter ecosystems and predator-prey dynamics, there is a critical need to understand how forage fish control bottom-up forcing of food web dynamics. In the northeast Pacific, northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) is an important forage species with high interannual variability in population size that subsequently impacts the foraging and reproductive ecology of marine predators. Anchovy habitat suitability from a species distribution model (SDM) was assessed as an indicator of the diet, distribution and reproduction of four predator species. Across 22 years (1998-2019), this anchovy ecosystem indicator (AEI) was significantly positively correlated with diet composition of all species and the distribution of common murres (Uria aalge), Brandt's cormorants (Phalacrocorax penicillatus) and California sea lions (Zalophus californianus), but not rhinoceros auklets (Cerorhinca monocerata). The capacity for the AEI to explain variability in predator reproduction varied by species but was strongest with cormorants and sea lions. The AEI demonstrates the utility of forage SDMs in creating ecosystem indicators to guide ecosystem-based management.

Building use-inspired species distribution models: Using multiple data types to examine and improve model performance.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are becoming an important tool for marine conservation and management. Yet while there is an increasing diversity and volume of marine biodiversity data for training SDMs, little practical guidance is available on how to leverage distinct data types to build robust models. We explored the effect of different data types on the fit, performance and predictive ability of SDMs by comparing models trained with four data types for a heavily exploited pelagic fish, the blue shark (Prionace glauca), in the Northwest Atlantic: two fishery dependent (conventional mark-recapture tags, fisheries observer records) and two fishery independent (satellite-linked electronic tags, pop-up archival tags). We found that all four data types can result in robust models, but differences among spatial predictions highlighted the need to consider ecological realism in model selection and interpretation regardless of data type. Differences among models were primarily attributed to biases in how each data type, and the associated representation of absences, sampled the environment and summarized the resulting species distributions. Outputs from model ensembles and a model trained on all pooled data both proved effective for combining inferences across data types and provided more ecologically realistic predictions than individual models. Our results provide valuable guidance for practitioners developing SDMs. With increasing access to diverse data sources, future work should further develop truly integrative modeling approaches that can explicitly leverage the strengths of individual data types while statistically accounting for limitations, such as sampling biases.

Selection of planning unit size in dynamic management strategies to reduce human-wildlife conflict.

Conservation planning traditionally relies upon static reserves; however, there is increasing emphasis on dynamic management (DM) strategies that are flexible in space and time. Due to its novelty, DM lacks best practices to guide design and implementation. We assessed the effect of planning unit size in a DM tool designed to reduce entanglement of protected whales in vertical ropes of surface buoys attached to crab traps in the lucrative U.S. Dungeness crab (Metacarcinus magister) fishery. We conducted a retrospective analysis from 2009 to 2019 with modeled distributions of blue (Balaenoptera musculus) and humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae) whales and observed fisheries effort and revenue to evaluate the effect of 7 planning unit sizes on DM tool performance. We measured performance as avoided whale entanglement risk and protected fisheries revenue. Small planning units avoided up to $47 million of revenue loss and reduced entanglement risk by up to 25% compared to the large planning units currently in use by avoiding the incidental closure of areas with low biodiversity value and high fisheries revenue. However, large planning units were less affected by an unprecedented marine heat wave in 2014-2016 and by delays in information on the distributions of whales and the fishery. Our findings suggest that the choice of planning unit size will require decision-makers to navigate multiple socioecological considerations-rather than a one-size-fits-all approach-to separate wildlife from threats under a changing climate.

Selección del tamaño de la unidad de planeación en las estrategias dinámicas de manejo para reducir el conflicto humano-fauna Resumen La planeación de la conservación depende por tradición de las reservas estáticas; sin embargo, cada vez hay más énfasis en estrategias de manejo dinámico (MD) que son flexibles con el tiempo y el espacio. Ya que es novedoso, el MD carece de buenas prácticas que guíen el diseño y la implementación. Analizamos el efecto del tamaño de la unidad de planeación en una herramienta de MD diseñada para reducir el número de ballenas que se enredan en las cuerdas verticales de las boyas amarradas a las trampas para cangrejos de la pesquería lucrativa del cangrejo Dungeness (Metacarcinus magister) en los Estados Unidos. Realizamos un análisis retrospectivo de 2009 a 2019 con modelos de distribución de la ballena azul (Balaenoptera musculus) y la ballena jorobada (Megaptera novaeangliae) y observamos los esfuerzos y ganancias de la pesquería para evaluar el efecto del tamaño de siete unidades de planeación sobre el desempeño de una herramienta de MD. Medimos el desempeño como el riesgo de enredamiento evitado y los ingresos protegidos de la pesquería. Las unidades pequeñas de planeación evitaron hasta $47 millones de ingresos perdidos y redujeron el riesgo de enredamiento hasta en 25% en comparación con las unidades grandes que se usan actualmente al evitar el cierre indirecto de áreas con un valor bajo de biodiversidad e ingresos elevados para la pesquería. Sin embargo, las unidades grandes de planeación estuvieron menos afectadas por una ola de calor marino sin precedentes entre 2014 y 2016 y por los retrasos en la información sobre la distribución de las ballenas y la pesquería. Nuestros hallazgos sugieren que la selección del tamaño de la unidad de planeación requerirá que el órgano decisorio navegue múltiples consideraciones socio-ecológicas-en lugar de un enfoque de un-tamaño-para-todos-para separar a la fauna de las amenazas bajo el clima cambiante.

Blue whales increase feeding rates at fine-scale ocean features.

Marine predators face the challenge of reliably finding prey that is patchily distributed in space and time. Predators make movement decisions at multiple spatial and temporal scales, yet we have a limited understanding of how habitat selection at multiple scales translates into foraging performance. In the ocean, there is mounting evidence that submesoscale (i.e. less than 100 km) processes drive the formation of dense prey patches that should hypothetically provide feeding hot spots and increase predator foraging success. Here, we integrated environmental remote-sensing with high-resolution animal-borne biologging data to evaluate submesoscale surface current features in relation to the habitat selection and foraging performance of blue whales in the California Current System. Our study revealed a consistent functional relationship in which blue whales disproportionately foraged within dynamic aggregative submesoscale features at both the regional and feeding site scales across seasons, regions and years. Moreover, we found that blue whale feeding rates increased in areas with stronger aggregative features, suggesting that these features indicate areas of higher prey density. The use of fine-scale, dynamic features by foraging blue whales underscores the need to take these features into account when designating critical habitat and may help inform strategies to mitigate the impacts of human activities for the species.

Ocean warming alters the distributional range, migratory timing, and spatial protections of an apex predator, the tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier).

Given climate change threats to ecosystems, it is critical to understand the responses of species to warming. This is especially important in the case of apex predators since they exhibit relatively high extinction risk, and changes to their distribution could impact predator-prey interactions that can initiate trophic cascades. Here we used a combined analysis of animal tracking, remotely sensed environmental data, habitat modeling, and capture data to evaluate the effects of climate variability and change on the distributional range and migratory phenology of an ectothermic apex predator, the tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier). Tiger sharks satellite tracked in the western North Atlantic between 2010 and 2019 revealed significant annual variability in the geographic extent and timing of their migrations to northern latitudes from ocean warming. Specifically, tiger shark migrations have extended farther poleward and arrival times to northern latitudes have occurred earlier in the year during periods with anomalously high sea-surface temperatures. A complementary analysis of nearly 40 years of tiger shark captures in the region revealed decadal-scale changes in the distribution and timing of shark captures in parallel with long-term ocean warming. Specifically, areas of highest catch densities have progressively increased poleward and catches have occurred earlier in the year off the North American shelf. During periods of anomalously high sea-surface temperatures, movements of tracked sharks shifted beyond spatial management zones that had been affording them protection from commercial fishing and bycatch. Taken together, these study results have implications for fisheries management, human-wildlife conflict, and ecosystem functioning.

Recommendations for quantifying and reducing uncertainty in climate projections of species distributions.

Projecting the future distributions of commercially and ecologically important species has become a critical approach for ecosystem managers to strategically anticipate change, but large uncertainties in projections limit climate adaptation planning. Although distribution projections are primarily used to understand the scope of potential change-rather than accurately predict specific outcomes-it is nonetheless essential to understand where and why projections can give implausible results and to identify which processes contribute to uncertainty. Here, we use a series of simulated species distributions, an ensemble of 252 species distribution models, and an ensemble of three regional ocean climate projections, to isolate the influences of uncertainty from earth system model spread and from ecological modeling. The simulations encompass marine species with different functional traits and ecological preferences to more broadly address resource manager and fishery stakeholder needs, and provide a simulated true state with which to evaluate projections. We present our results relative to the degree of environmental extrapolation from historical conditions, which helps facilitate interpretation by ecological modelers working in diverse systems. We found uncertainty associated with species distribution models can exceed uncertainty generated from diverging earth system models (up to 70% of total uncertainty by 2100), and that this result was consistent across species traits. Species distribution model uncertainty increased through time and was primarily related to the degree to which models extrapolated into novel environmental conditions but moderated by how well models captured the underlying dynamics driving species distributions. The predictive power of simulated species distribution models remained relatively high in the first 30 years of projections, in alignment with the time period in which stakeholders make strategic decisions based on climate information. By understanding sources of uncertainty, and how they change at different forecast horizons, we provide recommendations for projecting species distribution models under global climate change.

Memory and resource tracking drive blue whale migrations.

In terrestrial systems, the green wave hypothesis posits that migrating animals can enhance foraging opportunities by tracking phenological variation in high-quality forage across space (i.e., "resource waves"). To track resource waves, animals may rely on proximate cues and/or memory of long-term average phenologies. Although there is growing evidence of resource tracking in terrestrial migrants, such drivers remain unevaluated in migratory marine megafauna. Here we present a test of the green wave hypothesis in a marine system. We compare 10 years of blue whale movement data with the timing of the spring phytoplankton bloom resulting in increased prey availability in the California Current Ecosystem, allowing us to investigate resource tracking both contemporaneously (response to proximate cues) and based on climatological conditions (memory) during migrations. Blue whales closely tracked the long-term average phenology of the spring bloom, but did not track contemporaneous green-up. In addition, blue whale foraging locations were characterized by low long-term habitat variability and high long-term productivity compared with contemporaneous measurements. Results indicate that memory of long-term average conditions may have a previously underappreciated role in driving migratory movements of long-lived species in marine systems, and suggest that these animals may struggle to respond to rapid deviations from historical mean environmental conditions. Results further highlight that an ecological theory of migration is conserved across marine and terrestrial systems. Understanding the drivers of animal migration is critical for assessing how environmental changes will affect highly mobile fauna at a global scale.

Marine heatwave challenges solutions to human-wildlife conflict.

Despite the increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme climate events, little is known about how their impacts flow through social and ecological systems or whether management actions can dampen deleterious effects. We examined how the record 2014-2016 Northeast Pacific marine heatwave influenced trade-offs in managing conflict between conservation goals and human activities using a case study on large whale entanglements in the U.S. west coast's most lucrative fishery (the Dungeness crab fishery). We showed that this extreme climate event diminished the power of multiple management strategies to resolve trade-offs between entanglement risk and fishery revenue, transforming near win-win to clear win-lose outcomes (for whales and fishers, respectively). While some actions were more cost-effective than others, there was no silver-bullet strategy to reduce the severity of these trade-offs. Our study highlights how extreme climate events can exacerbate human-wildlife conflict, and emphasizes the need for innovative management and policy interventions that provide ecologically and socially sustainable solutions in an era of rapid environmental change.

Plastic ingestion by marine fish is widespread and increasing.

Plastic pollution has pervaded almost every facet of the biosphere, yet we lack an understanding of consumption risk by marine species at the global scale. To address this, we compile data from research documenting plastic debris ingestion by marine fish, totaling 171,774 individuals of 555 species. Overall, 386 marine fish species have ingested plastic debris including 210 species of commercial importance. However, 148 species studied had no records of plastic consumption, suggesting that while this evolutionary trap is widespread, it is not yet universal. Across all studies that accounted for microplastics, the incidence rate of plastic ingested by fish was 26%. Over the last decade this incidence has doubled, increasing by 2.4 ± 0.4% per year. This is driven both by increasing detection of smaller sized particles as a result of improved methodologies, as well as an increase in fish consuming plastic. Further, we investigated the role of geographic, ecological, and behavioral factors in the ingestion of plastic across species. These analyses revealed that the abundance of plastic in surface waters was positively correlated to plastic ingestion. Demersal species are more likely to ingest plastic in shallow waters; in contrast, pelagic species were most likely to consume plastic below the mixed layer. Mobile predatory species had the highest likelihood to ingest plastic; similarly, we found a positive relationship between trophic level and plastic ingestion. We also find evidence that surface ingestion-deep sea egestion of microplastics by mesopelagic myctophids is likely a key mechanism for the export of microplastics from the surface ocean to the seafloor, a sink for marine debris. These results elucidate the role of ecology and biogeography underlying plastic ingestion by marine fish and point toward species and regions in urgent need of study.

A satellite-based mobile warning system to reduce interactions with an endangered species.

Earth-observing satellites are a major research tool for spatially explicit ecosystem nowcasting and forecasting. However, there are practical challenges when integrating satellite data into usable real-time products for stakeholders. The need of forecast immediacy and accuracy means that forecast systems must account for missing data and data latency while delivering a timely, accurate, and actionable product to stakeholders. This is especially true for species that have legal protection. Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus (Atlantic sturgeon) were listed under the United States Endangered Species Act in 2012, which triggered immediate management action to foster population recovery and increase conservation measures. Building upon an existing research occurrence model, we developed an Atlantic sturgeon forecast system in the Delaware Bay, USA. To overcome missing satellite data due to clouds and produce a 3-d forecast of ocean conditions, we implemented data interpolating empirical orthogonal functions (DINEOF) on daily observed satellite data. We applied the Atlantic sturgeon research model to the DINEOF output and found that it correctly predicted Atlantic sturgeon telemetry occurrences over 90% of the time within a 3-d forecast. A similar framework has been utilized to forecast harmful algal blooms, but to our knowledge, this is the first time a species distribution model has been applied to DINEOF gap-filled data to produce a forecast product for fishes. To implement this product into an applied management setting, we worked with state and federal organizations to develop real-time and forecasted risk maps in the Delaware River Estuary for both state-level managers and commercial fishers. An automated system creates and distributes these risk maps to subscribers' mobile devices, highlighting areas that should be avoided to reduce interactions. Additionally, an interactive web interface allows users to plot historic, current, future, and climatological risk maps as well as the underlying model output of Atlantic sturgeon occurrence. The mobile system and web tool provide both stakeholders and managers real-time access to estimated occurrences of Atlantic sturgeon, enabling conservation planning and informing fisher behavior to reduce interactions with this endangered species while minimizing impacts to fisheries and other projects.

Fisheries bycatch risk to marine megafauna is intensified in Lagrangian coherent structures.

Incidental catch of nontarget species (bycatch) is a major barrier to ecological and economic sustainability in marine capture fisheries. Key to mitigating bycatch is an understanding of the habitat requirements of target and nontarget species and the influence of heterogeneity and variability in the dynamic marine environment. While patterns of overlap among marine capture fisheries and habitats of a taxonomically diverse range of marine vertebrates have been reported, a mechanistic understanding of the real-time physical drivers of bycatch events is lacking. Moving from describing patterns toward understanding processes, we apply a Lagrangian analysis to a high-resolution ocean model output to elucidate the fundamental mechanisms that drive fisheries interactions. We find that the likelihood of marine megafauna bycatch is intensified in attracting Lagrangian coherent structures associated with submesoscale and mesoscale filaments, fronts, and eddies. These results highlight how the real-time tracking of dynamic structures in the oceans can support fisheries sustainability and advance ecosystem-based management.

Decision-support tools for dynamic management.

Spatial management is a valuable strategy to advance regional goals for nature conservation, economic development, and human health. One challenge of spatial management is navigating the prioritization of multiple features. This challenge becomes more pronounced in dynamic management scenarios, in which boundaries are flexible in space and time in response to changing biological, environmental, or socioeconomic conditions. To implement dynamic management, decision-support tools are needed to guide spatial prioritization as feature distributions shift under changing conditions. Marxan is a widely applied decision-support tool designed for static management scenarios, but its utility in dynamic management has not been evaluated. EcoCast is a new decision-support tool developed explicitly for the dynamic management of multiple features, but it lacks some of Marxan's functionality. We used a hindcast analysis to compare the capacity of these 2 tools to prioritize 4 marine species in a dynamic management scenario for fisheries sustainability. We successfully configured Marxan to operate dynamically on a daily time scale to resemble EcoCast. The relationship between EcoCast solutions and the underlying species distributions was more linear and less noisy, whereas Marxan solutions had more contrast between waters that were good and poor to fish. Neither decision-support tool clearly outperformed the other; the appropriateness of each depends on management purpose, resource-manager preference, and technological capacity of tool developers. Article impact statement: Marxan can function as a decision-support tool for dynamic management scenarios in which boundaries are flexible in space and time.

Herramientas de Apoyo para la Toma de Decisiones en el Manejo Dinámico Resumen El manejo espacial es una estrategia valiosa para llevar hacia adelante los objetivos regionales para la conservación de la naturaleza, el desarrollo económico y la salud humana. Uno de los retos del manejo espacial es la navegación a través de la priorización de múltiples caracteres. Este reto se vuelve más pronunciado dentro de los escenarios de manejo dinámico, en los cuales los límites son flexibles en el tiempo y en el espacio como respuesta a las cambiantes condiciones biológicas, ambientales o socioeconómicas. Para implementar el manejo dinámico, se necesitan herramientas de apoyo para la toma de decisiones para guiar a la priorización espacial conforme la distribución de los caracteres se modifica bajo condiciones cambiantes. Marxan es una herramienta de apoyo para la toma de decisiones utilizada ampliamente y diseñada para escenarios de manejo estático, pero su utilidad para el manejo dinámico no ha sido evaluada. EcoCast es una nueva herramienta de apoyo para la toma de decisiones desarrollada explícitamente para el manejo dinámico de múltiples caracteres, pero carece de algunas funcionalidades que tiene Marxan. Usamos un análisis de información retrospectiva para comparar la capacidad de estas dos herramientas para priorizar a cuatro especies marinas en un escenario de manejo dinámico con respecto a la sustentabilidad de las pesquerías. Configuramos exitosamente la herramienta Marxan para que operara dinámicamente con respecto a una escala diaria de tiempo y así se asemejara a EcoCast. La relación entre las soluciones de EcoCast y las distribuciones subyacentes de las especies fue más lineal y menos ruidosa, mientras que las soluciones de Marxan tuvieron un mayor contraste entre las aguas que eran buenas y aquellas que eran pobres para los peces. Ninguna de las dos herramientas de apoyo para la toma de decisiones tuvo un mejor desempeño que la otra; la pertinencia de cada una depende del propósito del manejo, la preferencia del administrador de los recursos y la capacidad tecnológica de quienes desarrollan la herramienta.

Climate mediates the success of migration strategies in a marine predator.

Individual behavioural specialisation has far-reaching effects on fitness and population persistence. Theory predicts that unconditional site fidelity, that is fidelity to a site independent of past outcome, provides a fitness advantage in unpredictable environments. However, the benefits of alternative site fidelity strategies driving intraspecific variation remain poorly understood and have not been evaluated in different environmental contexts. We show that contrary to expectation, strong and weak site fidelity strategies in migratory northern elephant seals performed similarly over 10 years, but the success of each strategy varied interannually and was strongly mediated by climate conditions. Strong fidelity facilitated stable energetic rewards and low risk, while weak fidelity facilitated high rewards and high risk. Weak fidelity outperformed strong fidelity in anomalous climate conditions, suggesting that the evolutionary benefits of site fidelity may be upended by increasing environmental variability. We highlight how individual behavioural specialisation may modulate the adaptive capacity of species to climate change.

Mesoscale activity facilitates energy gain in a top predator.

How animal movement decisions interact with the distribution of resources to shape individual performance is a key question in ecology. However, links between spatial and behavioural ecology and fitness consequences are poorly understood because the outcomes of individual resource selection decisions, such as energy intake, are rarely measured. In the open ocean, mesoscale features (approx. 10-100 km) such as fronts and eddies can aggregate prey and thereby drive the distribution of foraging vertebrates through bottom-up biophysical coupling. These productive features are known to attract predators, yet their role in facilitating energy transfer to top-level consumers is opaque. We investigated the use of mesoscale features by migrating northern elephant seals and quantified the corresponding energetic gains from the seals' foraging patterns at a daily resolution. Migrating elephant seals modified their diving behaviour and selected for mesoscale features when foraging. Daily energy gain increased significantly with increasing mesoscale activity, indicating that the physical environment can influence predator fitness at fine temporal scales. Results show that areas of high mesoscale activity not only attract top predators as foraging hotspots, but also lead to increased energy transfer across trophic levels. Our study provides evidence that the physical environment is an important factor in controlling energy flow to top predators by setting the stage for variation in resource availability. Such understanding is critical for assessing how changes in the environment and resource distribution will affect individual fitness and food web dynamics.

Fit to predict? Eco-informatics for predicting the catchability of a pelagic fish in near real time.

The ocean is a dynamic environment inhabited by a diverse array of highly migratory species, many of which are under direct exploitation in targeted fisheries. The timescales of variability in the marine realm coupled with the extreme mobility of ocean-wandering species such as tuna and billfish complicates fisheries management. Developing eco-informatics solutions that allow for near real-time prediction of the distributions of highly mobile marine species is an important step towards the maturation of dynamic ocean management and ecological forecasting. Using 25 yr (1990-2014) of NOAA fisheries' observer data from the California drift gillnet fishery, we model relative probability of occurrence (presence-absence) and catchability (total catch per gillnet set) of broadbill swordfish Xiphias gladius in the California Current System. Using freely available environmental data sets and open source software, we explore the physical drivers of regional swordfish distribution. Comparing models built upon remotely sensed data sets with those built upon a data-assimilative configuration of the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS), we explore trade-offs in model construction, and address how physical data can affect predictive performance and operational capacity. Swordfish catchability was found to be highest in deeper waters (>1,500 m) with surface temperatures in the 14-20°C range, isothermal layer depth (ILD) of 20-40 m, positive sea surface height (SSH) anomalies, and during the new moon (<20% lunar illumination). We observed a greater influence of mesoscale variability (SSH, wind speed, isothermal layer depth, eddy kinetic energy) in driving swordfish catchability (total catch) than was evident in predicting the relative probability of presence (presence-absence), confirming the utility of generating spatiotemporally dynamic predictions. Data-assimilative ROMS circumvent the limitations of satellite remote sensing in providing physical data fields for species distribution models (e.g., cloud cover, variable resolution, subsurface data), and facilitate broad-scale prediction of dynamic species distributions in near real time.