Zoonotic outbreak risk prediction with long short-term memory models: a case study with schistosomiasis, echinococcosis, and leptospirosis.

BACKGROUND: Zoonotic infections, characterized with huge pathogen diversity, wide affecting area and great society harm, have become a major global public health problem. Early and accurate prediction of their outbreaks is crucial for disease control. The aim of this study was to develop zoonotic diseases risk predictive models based on time-series incidence data and three zoonotic diseases in mainland China were employed as cases. METHODS: The incidence data for schistosomiasis, echinococcosis, and leptospirosis were downloaded from the Scientific Data Centre of the National Ministry of Health of China, and were processed by interpolation, dynamic curve reconstruction and time series decomposition. Data were decomposed into three distinct components: the trend component, the seasonal component, and the residual component. The trend component was used as input to construct the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) prediction model, while the seasonal component was used in the comparison of the periods and amplitudes. Finaly, the accuracy of the hybrid LSTM prediction model was comprehensive evaluated. RESULTS: This study employed trend series of incidence numbers and incidence rates of three zoonotic diseases for modeling. The prediction results of the model showed that the predicted incidence number and incidence rate were very close to the real incidence data. Model evaluation revealed that the prediction error of the hybrid LSTM model was smaller than that of the single LSTM. Thus, these results demonstrate that using trending sequences as input sequences for the model leads to better-fitting predictive models. CONCLUSIONS: Our study successfully developed LSTM hybrid models for disease outbreak risk prediction using three zoonotic diseases as case studies. We demonstrate that the LSTM, when combined with time series decomposition, delivers more accurate results compared to conventional LSTM models using the raw data series. Disease outbreak trends can be predicted more accurately using hybrid models.

Gold nanoparticle dimer-based immunochromatography for in situ ultrasensitive detection of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus.

The low detection sensitivity of lateral-flow immunochromatography assay (LFIA) based on spherical gold nanoparticle (AuNP) limits its wide applications. In the present study, AuNP dimers with strong plasma scattering and robust signal output were synthesized via the Ag ion soldering (AIS) strategy and used as labeled probes in LFIA to boost the sensitivity without any extra operation process and equipment. The established LFIA exhibited high sensitivity with a limit of detection (LOD) of 2.0 × 102 TCID50/mL for PEDV, which provides 50 times higher sensitivity than commercial LFIA based on spherical colloidal gold. In addition, the AuNP dimer-based LFIA showed strong specificity, good reproducibility, high stability, and good accordance to reverse transcription polymer chain reaction (RT-PCR) when detecting 109 clinical samples. Thus, the AuNP dimers is a promising probe for LFIA and the developed AuNP dimer-based LFIA is suitable for the rapid detection of PEDV in the field.

Concurrent Determination of Tigecycline, Tetracyclines and Their 4-Epimer Derivatives in Chicken Muscle Isolated from a Reversed-Phase Chromatography System Using Tandem Mass Spectrometry.

A quantitative and qualitative method using a high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS/MS) detection approach was developed and validated for the analysis of tigecycline, four tetracyclines and their three 4-epimer derivatives in chicken muscle. Samples were extracted repeatedly with 0.1 mol/L Na2EDTA-McIlvaine buffer solution. After vortexing, centrifugation, solid-phase extraction, evaporation and reconstitution, the aliquots were separated using a C8 reversed-phase column (50 mm × 2.1 mm, 5 µm) with a binary solvent system consisting of methanol and 0.01 mol/L trichloroacetic acid aqueous solution. The typical validation parameters were evaluated in accordance with the acceptance criteria detailed in the guidelines of the EU Commission Decision 2002/657/EC and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration Bioanalytical Method Validation 05/24/18. The matrix-matched calibration curve was linear over the concentration range from the limit of quantitation (LOQ) to 400 µg/kg for doxycycline, and the calibration graphs for tetracycline, chlortetracycline, oxytetracycline, their 4-epimer derivatives and tigecycline showed a good linear relationship within the concentration range from the LOQ to 200 µg/kg. The limits of detection (LODs) for the eight targets were in the range of 0.06 to 0.09 µg/kg, and the recoveries from the fortified blank samples were in the range of 89% to 98%. The within-run precision and between-run precision, which were expressed as the relative standard deviations, were less than 5.0% and 6.9%, respectively. The applicability was successfully demonstrated through the determination of residues in 72 commercial chicken samples purchased from different sources. This approach provides a novel option for the detection of residues in animal-derived food safety monitoring.

Simultaneous Determination of Tetracyclines and Fluoroquinolones in Poultry Eggs by UPLC Integrated with Dual-Channel-Fluorescence Detection Method.

An innovative, rapid and stable method for simultaneous determination of three tetracycline (oxytetracycline, tetracycline and doxycycline) and two fluoroquinolone (ciprofloxacin and enrofloxacin) residues in poultry eggs by ultra-high performance liquid chromatography-fluorescence detection (UPLC-FLD) was established and optimized. The samples were homogenized and extracted with acetonitrile/ultrapure water (90:10, v/v) and then purified by solid-phase extraction (SPE). LC separation was achieved on an ACQUITY UPLC BEH C18 column (1.7 µm, 2.1 mm × 100 mm), and the mobile phase was composed of acetonitrile and a 0.1 mol/L malonic acid solution containing 50 mmol/L magnesium chloride (the pH was adjusted to 5.5 with ammonia). When the five target drugs were spiked at the limit of quantification, 0.5 times the maximum residue limit (MRL), 1.0 MRL and 2.0 MRL, the recoveries were above 83.5% and the precision ranged from 1.99% to 6.24%. These figures of merit complied with the parameter validation regulations of the EU and U.S. FDA. The limits of detection and quantifications of the targets were 0.1-13.4 µg/kg and 0.3-40.1 µg/kg, respectively. The proposed method was easily extended to quantitative analyses of target drug residues in 85 egg samples, thus demonstrating its reliability and applicability.

Tris stabilized AuNPs based lateral flow immunochromatography for the simultaneous detection of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus and rotavirus on-site.

Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) and rotavirus has posed a significant threat to the pig industry annually across different nations, resulting in huge economic losses. The frequent co-infection of these two viruses in clinical settings complicates the process of differential diagnoses. Rapid and accurate detection of PEDV and rotavirus is in great demand for timely diarrhea disease prevention and control. In this study, tris stabilized AuNPs were prepared and a sensitive lateral flow immunoassay (LFIA) sensor was developed for the simultaneous and rapid detection of PEDV and rotavirus on site. After the system optimization, the established LFIA can simultaneously identify PEDV and rotavirus with limits of detection (LOD) of 1.25 × 103 TCID50 mL-1 and 3.13 × 102 pg mL-1, respectively. When applying for clinical samples, the LFIA show a concordance of 95 % and 100 % to reverse transcript polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for PEDV and rotavirus respectively. Therefore, this LFIA can qualitatively detect PEDV and rotavirus in 18 min with high sensitivity and accuracy without any sophisticated equipment and operation, making it a promising candidate for the early diagnosis of PEDV or/and rotavirus diarrhea on site.

Simultaneous quantitative determination of residues of abamectin, ivermectin, albendazole and its three metabolites in beef and chicken by HPLC-PDA.

Antimicrobial drugs are frequently used in a combination or shuttle way to cope with coinfection of bacteria or parasites and prevent drug resistance, thus the accurate quantification of multiple drug residues in animal-derived foods is crucial to ensure food safety. Here, a simple and efficient high-performance liquid chromatography-photodiode array (HPLC-PDA) method was established for the simultaneous quantitative screening of six common residues of antiparasitic drugs, including abamectin (ABM), ivermectin (IVM), albendazole (ABZ) and the three metabolites of ABZ in beef and chicken. The LODs and LOQs for six target compounds in beef and chicken are determined to be 3.2 to 12.5 µg/kg and 9.0 to 30.0 µg/kg, respectively. The calibration curves show good linearity (R2 ≥ 0.9990) between the peak area and concentration. The recoveries from the fortified blank samples are all above 85.10%. Finally, the applicability of the HPLC-PDA method is successfully demonstrated by the real sample analysis.

Melatonin disturbed rumen microflora structure and metabolic pathways in vitro.

IMPORTANCE: In in vitro studies, it has been found that the effects of MLT on rumen microorganisms and metabolites can change the rumen flora structure, significantly inhibit the relative abundance of harmful Acinetobacter, and improve the relative abundance of beneficial bacteria. MLT may regulate the "arginine-glutathione" pathway, "phenylalanine, tyrosine and tryptophan biosynthesis-tryptophan generation" branch, "tryptophan-kynurenine" metabolism, and "tryptophan-tryptamine-serotonin" pathway through microorganisms.

Separation and Detection of Abamectin, Ivermectin, Albendazole and Three Metabolites in Eggs Using Reversed-Phase HPLC Coupled with a Photo Diode Array Detector.

An innovative and sensitive approach using high-performance liquid chromatography-photo diode array detection (HPLC-PDAD) was developed and optimized for the simultaneous determination of abamectin (ABM), ivermectin (IVM), albendazole (ABZ) and three metabolites in eggs. The samples were extracted with acetonitrile (MeCN)/water (90:10, v/v), and the extracts containing the targets were cleaned up and concentrated by a series of liquid-liquid extraction (LLE) steps. A reversed-phase C18 column and a mobile phase consisting of 0.1% trifluoroacetic acid (TFA) aqueous solution and methanol (MeOH) were utilized to perform optimal chromatographic separation. The developed method was validated on the basis of international guidelines. The limits of detection (LODs) and quantitation (LOQs) were 2.1-10.5 µg/kg and 7.8-28.4 µg/kg, respectively. Satisfactory linear relationships were observed for the targets in their corresponding concentration ranges. The mean recoveries ranged from 85.7% to 97.21% at 4 addition levels, with intraday and interday relative standard deviations (RSDs) in the ranges of 1.68-4.77% and 1.74-5.31%, respectively. The presented protocol was demonstrated to be applicable and reliable by being applied for the detection of target residues in locally sourced egg samples.

Effects of Acremonium terricola Culture on the Growth, Slaughter Yield, Immune Organ, Serum Biochemical Indexes, and Antioxidant Indexes of Geese.

Acremonium terricola culture (ATC) is a new type of green feed additive, and its main components include cordycepin, adenosine, and ergosterol. In this study, the Hortobagy geese were used as the experimental animals to explore the effects of ATC addition to the basal diet. Seven hundred and twenty 1-day-old Hortobagy geese were randomly divided into four treatment groups, each with 180 geese divided into six pens equally. The four treatments included the control group and three experimental treatments. Half of the geese in each group were males and half were females. All geese were offered the same basal diet with ATC supplementation at 0, 3, 5, and 7 g/kg. The results showed that basal diet supplementation with 7 g/kg ATC reduced the feed conversion rate (FCR) of Hortobagy geese in a highly significant manner (p < 0.01). When the dosage of ATC was 3 g/kg, the breast muscle rate and leg muscle rate of female geese were significantly increased (p < 0.05). ATC supplementation in the basal diet had no significant effect on the immune organ index of Hortobagy geese (p > 0.05). Basal diet supplementation with 3 g/kg and 5 g/kg ATC significantly reduced the alanine aminotransferase (ALT) content in the serum of female geese, significantly increased the total antioxidant capacity (T-AOC) of the serum, and significantly reduced the malondialdehyde (MDA) content in the serum (p < 0.05). The addition of 5 g/kg and 7 g/kg ATC to the basal diet reduced the blood glucose (GLU) content in male geese in a highly significant manner (p < 0.01). A basal diet supplemented with 3 g/kg and 7 g/kg ATC significantly reduced the MDA content in geese breast muscles (p < 0.05). Basal diet supplementation with 3 g/kg ATC highly significantly improved the T-AOC of female geese breast muscles (p < 0.01). Basal diet supplementation with 5 g/kg ATC significantly improved the T-AOC of female geese leg muscles (p < 0.01). In summary, basal diet supplementation with ATC enhances the growth performance and antioxidant properties of Hortobagy geese.

Qualitative and quantitative determination of tilmicosin in poultry eggs by gas chromatography tandem mass spectrometry after derivatization with acetic anhydride.

A novel GC-MS/MS analytical method was established for the qualitative and quantitative determination of tilmicosin in poultry (Jinghai yellow chicken, Gaoyou duck and Yangzhou goose) eggs. The method was based on LLE and SPE for sample extraction and purification. Pyridine and acetic anhydride were used for the derivatization reaction. When tilmicosin was added to blank poultry egg samples at the LOQ and 75 µg/kg, 150 µg/kg, and 300 µg/kg, the recoveries ranged from 72.80% to 88.75%, the intraday and interday RSDs ranged from 2.31% to 4.56% and 3.29%-5.61%, respectively, and the LODs and LOQs ranged from 3.8 to 5.6 µg/kg and 8.4-10.5 µg/kg, respectively. These results confirmed that the parameters of this novel method meet the requirements of the FAO & WHO (2014) for veterinary drug residue testing. Poultry egg samples purchased from the local market were analysed according to the established method and only one egg sample was found to contain 18.9 µg/kg of tilmicosin.

Determination of Levamisole and Mebendazole and Its Two Metabolite Residues in Three Poultry Species by HPLC-MS/MS.

A high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS/MS) method was developed to simultaneously analyze levamisole (LMS) and mebendazole (MBZ) and its two metabolites, 5-hydroxymebendazole (HMBZ) and 2-amino-5-benzoylbenzimidazole (AMBZ), in poultry muscle (chicken, duck and goose). In the sample preparation process, basic ethyl acetate was used as the extraction agent, and the extracted samples were back-extracted with hydrochloric acid, purified by Oasis MCX solid-phase extraction (SPE) cartridges, and reconstituted in the initial mobile phase after being blown dry with nitrogen. Chromatographic separation was performed on an Xbridge C18 column (4.6 mm × 150 mm, 5 µm) with 0.1% formic acid in water and acetonitrile as the mobile phases, and gradient elution was performed at a flow rate of 0.6 mL/min and a column temperature of 35 °C. In blank poultry muscle samples, the spiked concentrations of LMS, MBZ, HMBZ, and AMBZ were within the range of the limit of quantitation (LOQ) to 25 µg/kg. The peak areas of the four target drugs had a good linear relationship with the concentration, and the determination coefficient (R2) values were higher than 0.9990. The average recoveries of LMS, MBZ, HMBZ, and AMBZ were 86.77-96.94%; the intraday relative standard deviations (RSDs) were 1.75-4.99% at LOQ, 0.5 maximum residue limit (MRL), 1.0 MRL, and 2.0 MRL; the interday RSDs were 2.54-5.52%; and the LODs and LOQs were 0.04-0.30 µg/kg and 0.12-0.80 µg/kg, respectively.

Simultaneous Determination of Albendazole and Its Three Metabolites in Pig and Poultry Muscle by Ultrahigh-Performance Liquid Chromatography-Fluorescence Detection.

A fast, simple and efficient ultrahigh-performance liquid chromatography-fluorescence detection (UPLC-FLD) method for the determination of residues of albendazole (ABZ) and its three metabolites, albendazole sulfone (ABZ-SO2), albendazole sulfoxide (ABZ-SO), and albendazole-2-aminosulfone (ABZ-2NH2-SO2), in pig and poultry muscle (chicken, duck and goose) was established. The samples were extracted with ethyl acetate, and the extracts were further subjected to cleanup by utilizing a series of liquid-liquid extraction (LLE) steps. Then, extracts were purified by OASIS® PRiME hydrophilic-lipophilic balance (HLB) solid-phase extraction (SPE) cartridges (60 mg/3 mL). The target compounds were separated on an ACQUITY UPLC® BEH C18 (2.1 mm × 100 mm, 1.7 µm) chromatographic column, using a mobile phase composed of 31% acetonitrile and 69% aqueous solution (containing 0.2% formic acid and 0.05% triethylamine). The limits of detection (LODs) and limits of quantification (LOQs) of the four target compounds in pig and poultry muscle were 0.2-3.8 µg/kg and 1.0-10.9 µg/kg, respectively. The recoveries were all above 80.37% when the muscle samples were spiked with the four target compounds at the LOQ, 0.5 maximum residue limit (MRL), 1.0 MRL, and 2.0 MRL levels. The intraday relative standard deviations (RSDs) were less than 5.11%, and the interday RSDs were less than 6.29%.