Flooding in semi-unformal urban areas in North Africa: Environmental and psychosocial drivers.

Urban flooding is recognized as a nature-driven disaster shaped by inherent factors such as climate, morphology, and hydrology, affecting vulnerability and flood exposure. While these factors play a paramount role, significant psychosocial intricate drivers are acknowledged, though they are challenging for prediction and assessment. This study delves into these drivers in a specific context, aiming to draw conclusions that extend beyond. It undertakes a comprehensive approach, integrating cloud-based Radar flood detection, analysis of flood causation patterns, and geostatistical analysis of a social survey based on cross-synthesis, contingency analysis, and structural equation modeling. In particular, we characterize the case of the coastal city of Tetouan in Morocco, which is representative in its environmental and socioeconomic settings to most cities in North Africa. It unraveled the nuanced interplay of psychosocial, economic, and territorial dynamics influencing flood exposure. The findings reveal how watershed location molds unique environmental exposures, steering nuanced, emotional, and behavioral responses among residents. Gender and education differentials reveal diverse perceptions and awareness of flood risks. Psychosocial intricacies come to the forefront, portraying education, income, and awareness as crucial mediators influencing cognitive and affective responses. Elevated education, increased income, and heightened awareness correlate with heightened perception and coping strategies. Findings reveal that risk perception significantly and differently influences risk acceptance, coping, and aversion through an array of identified key factors influencing coping strategies, mediating elements in flood damage relationships, and underscoring the pivotal role of perception in shaping responses to risk. Moreover, it found that lower risk acceptance leads to higher coping and aversion, and the latter positively affects coping, indicating that acceptance reduces the motivation to avoid the risk and decreases the willingness to adopt coping strategies to reduce the exposure. The outcomes carry critical implications for comprehending individual and collective social behaviors, informing strategies, and mitigating flood risk that apply at a wider context. It accentuates the inadequacy of relying solely on structural engineering for risk management, citing spatial constraints, misinformation, and lapses in prior-risk memory as compounding exposure challenges. This recognition catalyzes action, advocating tailored awareness campaigns, educational initiatives, and capacity-building programs, spotlighting the need for heightened individual profiles to enhance social understanding, engagement, and resilience. We anticipate profound insights, fostering a richer comprehension of urban flooding complexities and informing adaptive strategies on a broader scale.

Comparative study for coastal aquifer vulnerability assessment using deep learning and metaheuristic algorithms.

Coastal aquifer vulnerability assessment (CAVA) studies are essential for mitigating the effects of seawater intrusion (SWI) worldwide. In this research, the vulnerability of the coastal aquifer in the Lahijan region of northwest Iran was investigated. A vulnerability map (VM) was created applying hydrogeological parameters derived from the original GALDIT model (OGM). The significance of OGM parameters was assessed using the mean decrease accuracy (MDA) method, with the current state of SWI emerging as the most crucial factor for evaluating vulnerability. To optimize GALDIT weights, we introduced the biogeography-based optimization (BBO) and gray wolf optimization (GWO) techniques to obtain to hybrid OGM-BBO and OGM-GWO models, respectively. Despite considerable research focused on enhancing CAVA models, efforts to modify the weights and rates of OGM parameters by incorporating deep learning algorithms remain scarce. Hence, a convolutional neural network (CNN) algorithm was applied to produce the VM. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curves for OGM-BBO, OGM-GWO, and VMCNN were 0.794, 0.835, and 0.982, respectively. According to the CNN-based VM, 41% of the aquifer displayed very high and high vulnerability to SWI, concentrated primarily along the coastline. Additionally, 32% of the aquifer exhibited very low and low vulnerability to SWI, predominantly in the southern and southwestern regions. The proposed model can be extended to evaluate the vulnerability of various coastal aquifers to SWI, thereby assisting land use planers and policymakers in identifying at-risk areas. Moreover, deep-learning-based approaches can help clarify the associations between aquifer vulnerability and contamination resulting from SWI.

Soil erosion and hydroclimatic hazards in major African port cities: the case study of Tangier.

Land degradation and soil erosion are becoming increasingly problematic in Africa's rapidly developing urban areas, particularly in Major Port Cities. Uncontrolled expansion and human pressures are hindering planning, adaptation, and conservation efforts. To understand the extent of these issues, this study combined morphometric analysis, soil loss calculation, field monitoring, and remote sensing and GIS tools to assess soil erosion in the Metropolis of Tangier (Morocco) located at the confluence of the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean at the Strait of Gibraltar. The study relied on data from 13 rain gauge stations, official reports, and remote sensing acquisitions, as well as field observations. Results showed an average soil erosion rate of 24.2 t/ha/year, equivalent to an annual soil loss of 588,051 t/year. This high rate was largely due to areas with a high erosion risk (99.8%), covering only 8.3% of the territory, which were characterized by recently burned topsoil, fallow land, and steep slopes. These areas included both uncontrolled neighbourhoods and areas for planned urban and industrial expansion, posing a threat to the landscape's sustainability and socio-economic prospects. The morphometric analysis revealed its high vulnerability to erosion and degradation, with the highest soil loss rates observed in the eastern and western regions. The study also found that flash floods caused by hydroclimatic hazards can lead to significant damage to infrastructure and equipment, particularly in western sub-basins and mountainous regions. In conclusion, the use of remote sensing and GIS technologies provided valuable insights into the physical characteristics and vulnerability of the Tangier Metropolis to land degradation and soil erosion. These findings emphasize the need for effective land management practices and conservation measures to mitigate the impacts of land degradation and soil erosion in the face of climate change. This information is crucial for decision-makers and stakeholders to develop strategies to address these pressing issues.

Decline in Iran's groundwater recharge.

Groundwater recharge feeds aquifers supplying fresh-water to a population over 80 million in Iran-a global hotspot for groundwater depletion. Using an extended database comprising abstractions from over one million groundwater wells, springs, and qanats, from 2002 to 2017, here we show a significant decline of around -3.8 mm/yr in the nationwide groundwater recharge. This decline is primarily attributed to unsustainable water and environmental resources management, exacerbated by decadal changes in climatic conditions. However, it is important to note that the former's contribution outweighs the latter. Our results show the average annual amount of nationwide groundwater recharge (i.e., ~40 mm/yr) is more than the reported average annual runoff in Iran (i.e., ~32 mm/yr), suggesting the surface water is the main contributor to groundwater recharge. Such a decline in groundwater recharge could further exacerbate the already dire aquifer depletion situation in Iran, with devastating consequences for the country's natural environment and socio-economic development.

Impacts of water stress on lagoonal ecosystem degradation in semi-arid coastal areas.

The intensifying impacts of aridity and water stress on the dynamics and ecological degradation of wetlands in North Africa are often underestimated and largely remain unquantified. To address this deficiency, we assessed decadal changes in the sedimentary, sea surface salinity (SSS), and microfaunistic patterns of the Bizerte Lagoon, a climatically vulnerable area in the southern Mediterranean basin. Findings from sediment transport analysis indicate preferential current dispersion along the lagoon ridge associated with mixtures of sedimentary distributions. The changes in SSS between 2004 and 2016 reveal an increase of approximately 40% in areas where the river flows into the lagoon. Findings from the microfaunistic analysis suggest that over the last few decades, a progressive enrichment of alien marine species has occurred in the lagoon owing to changes in SSS and sedimentation. Results also revealed the unexpected presence of tropical to subtropical Larger B-bearing Foraminifera (LBF) species, which are exogenic to the warm southern Mediterranean coasts. The study findings highlight the impacts of damming and changes in precipitation patterns on the degradation of biodiversity in the Bizerte Lagoon and in other lagoonal systems in North Africa with similar levels of aridity.

Alarming coastal vulnerability of the deltaic and sandy beaches of North Africa.

The arid coasts of North Africa, extending over 4633 km from the Gulf of Tunis to the Nile Delta, are undergoing pronounced shoreline retreats and coastal floodings that are reported as a consequence of the ongoing sea level rise resulting from global warming. Of particular interest are the abnormal shoreline dynamics for deltaic and sandy beaches, which are severely impacted by abrupt decadal variabilities in both climatic and anthropogenic drivers resulting in their increased vulnerability to disturbances from coastal hazards. Unfortunately, the evolution, distribution and impacts of these drivers remain largely unquantified, let alone understood, for these extensive arid coasts that harbor the major portion of North Africa's population as well as unique and fragile marine ecosystems. To address this deficiency, we use GIS-based multi-criteria approaches combined with analytic hierarchy process to map the Coastal Vulnerability Index and the Socioeconomic Vulnerability Index along these coasts to investigate the amplitude and extent of shoreline deterioration resulting from sudden fluctuations in sediment transport to the coastline. We use the western bay of the Gulf of Tunis, the coasts of Tripoli and the Nile Delta as three validation sites for our vulnerability assessment. The statistical Integrated Coastal Vulnerability Index map reveals that 47% of arid North African coasts are characterized by high to very high vulnerability. In particular, we observe that the densely populated deltaic coasts in both Tunisia and Egypt are 70% more vulnerable than any others coast in the eastern Mediterranean Basin. These abnormally high-vulnerability extensive areas are also correlated with significant deterioration of coastal aquifers and hence in crop production, compromising local food security and resulting in increasing outflow migration trends. Both Tunisia and Egypt observed dramatic increases in the net population outflow migration by respectively 62% and 248% between 2000 and 2016, mostly from coastal areas. Our source analysis of the amplitude and extent of these high coastal vulnerabilities suggests that they result from the anthropogenic drivers of damming and rapid urban growth over the last few decades rather than the effects of global warming.

Groundwater mounding: A diagnostic feature for mapping aquifer connectivity in hyper-arid deserts.

Shallow aquifer mapping and large-scale characterization of groundwater dynamics in the Saharan-Arabian Desert is largely impeded by the limited hydrological datasets from sparse and unevenly distributed well logs. Today, as these aquifers are depleting at alarming rates in response to climatic and anthropogenic stresses, accurate knowledge of their dynamical characteristics is not only essential for understanding the water deficit in these increasingly populated areas but also to understand the regional and global environmental impacts of such changes. Herein, we suggest that groundwater mounding can be used for assessing aquifer connectivity in hyper-arid deserts. Using the shallow Post Nubian Aquifer System (PNAS) in Egypt as a test site, we integrate remote sensing, isotopic, hydrochemical and geoelectrical methods to characterize the Saharan groundwater mounds, examine the structural control on groundwater dynamics and discuss the potential of future satellite missions to characterize aquifer connectivity. The results suggest that groundwater mounding in the PNAS is attributed to artesian discharge of the deep Nubian Aquifer System (NAS) along the intersection of WNW and E-W major faults. This is evident by the dominant isotopic signature (δ18O: -9.93‰; δ2H: -79.05) of the deep NAS in the shallow PNAS with a percentage of up to 85% in the faulted zone. The 2D-Electrical Restively Imaging (ERI) delineate multiple small-scale mounds, atop of faults, that can attain 37 m height above average water table creating a relatively steep hydraulic gradient and deviating the groundwater flow direction. Future orbital radar sounding missions can benefit from characterizing the geometry of these mounds to define the measurement requirements of such hydrological features. The large-scale time-coherent subsurface mapping of the Saharan-Arabian aquifers can provide unique insights to examine the aquifer connectivity and the response of aquifers to climatic and anthropogenic stresses in desert areas that otherwise cannot be addressed using existing sporadic well-logs.

Orbital bistatic radar observations of asteroid Vesta by the Dawn mission.

We present orbital bistatic radar observations of a small-body, acquired during occultation by the Dawn spacecraft at asteroid Vesta. The radar forward-scattering properties of different reflection sites are used to assess the textural properties of Vesta's surface at centimeter-to-decimeter scales and are compared to subsurface hydrogen concentrations observed by Dawn's Gamma Ray and Neutron Detector to assess potential volatile occurrence in the surface and shallow subsurface. We observe significant differences in surface radar reflectivity, implying substantial spatial variations in centimeter-to-decimeter-scale surface roughness. Our results suggest that unlike the Moon, Vesta's surface roughness variations cannot be explained by cratering processes only. In particular, the occurrence of heightened hydrogen concentrations within large smoother terrains (over hundreds of square kilometers) suggests that potential ground-ice presence may have contributed to the formation of Vesta's current surface texture. Our observations are consistent with geomorphological evidence of transient water flow from Dawn Framing Camera images.The Dawn spacecraft has provided orbital bistatic radar observations of a small body in the solar system. Here, the authors present results from Vesta suggesting that smooth terrains with heightened hydrogen concentrations indicate that ground-ice presence potentially helped shape Vesta's current surface texture.

Publisher Correction: Orbital bistatic radar observations of asteroid Vesta by the Dawn mission.

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COMETARY SCIENCE. Properties of the 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko interior revealed by CONSERT radar.

The Philae lander provides a unique opportunity to investigate the internal structure of a comet nucleus, providing information about its formation and evolution in the early solar system. We present Comet Nucleus Sounding Experiment by Radiowave Transmission (CONSERT) measurements of the interior of Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. From the propagation time and form of the signals, the upper part of the "head" of 67P is fairly homogeneous on a spatial scale of tens of meters. CONSERT also reduced the size of the uncertainty of Philae's final landing site down to approximately 21 by 34 square meters. The average permittivity is about 1.27, suggesting that this region has a volumetric dust/ice ratio of 0.4 to 2.6 and a porosity of 75 to 85%. The dust component may be comparable to that of carbonaceous chondrites.

Mars north polar deposits: stratigraphy, age, and geodynamical response.

The Shallow Radar (SHARAD) on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter has imaged the internal stratigraphy of the north polar layered deposits of Mars. Radar reflections within the deposits reveal a laterally continuous deposition of layers, which typically consist of four packets of finely spaced reflectors separated by homogeneous interpacket regions of nearly pure ice. The packet/interpacket structure can be explained by approximately million-year periodicities in Mars' obliquity or orbital eccentricity. The observed approximately 100-meter maximum deflection of the underlying substrate in response to the ice load implies that the present-day thickness of an equilibrium elastic lithosphere is greater than 300 kilometers. Alternatively, the response to the load may be in a transient state controlled by mantle viscosity. Both scenarios probably require that Mars has a subchondritic abundance of heat-producing elements.

Subsurface radar sounding of the south polar layered deposits of Mars.

The ice-rich south polar layered deposits of Mars were probed with the Mars Advanced Radar for Subsurface and Ionospheric Sounding on the Mars Express orbiter. The radar signals penetrate deep into the deposits (more than 3.7 kilometers). For most of the area, a reflection is detected at a time delay that is consistent with an interface between the deposits and the substrate. The reflected power from this interface indicates minimal attenuation of the signal, suggesting a composition of nearly pure water ice. Maps were generated of the topography of the basal interface and the thickness of the layered deposits. A set of buried depressions is seen within 300 kilometers of the pole. The thickness map shows an asymmetric distribution of the deposits and regions of anomalous thickness. The total volume is estimated to be 1.6 x 10(6) cubic kilometers, which is equivalent to a global water layer approximately 11 meters thick.

Radar soundings of the subsurface of Mars.

The martian subsurface has been probed to kilometer depths by the Mars Advanced Radar for Subsurface and Ionospheric Sounding instrument aboard the Mars Express orbiter. Signals penetrate the polar layered deposits, probably imaging the base of the deposits. Data from the northern lowlands of Chryse Planitia have revealed a shallowly buried quasi-circular structure about 250 kilometers in diameter that is interpreted to be an impact basin. In addition, a planar reflector associated with the basin structure may indicate the presence of a low-loss deposit that is more than 1 kilometer thick.