Assessing the impacts of past and ongoing deforestation on rainfall patterns in South America.

Despite recent advances in modeling forest-rainfall relationships, the current understanding of changes in observed rainfall patterns resulting from historical deforestation remains limited. To address this knowledge gap, we analyzed how 40 years of deforestation has altered rainfall patterns in South America as well as how current Amazonian forest cover sustains rainfall. First, we develop a spatiotemporal neural network model to simulate rainfall as a function of vegetation and climate inputs in South America; second, we assess the rainfall effects of observed deforestation in South America during the periods 1982-2020 and 2000-2020; third, we assess the potential rainfall changes in the Amazon biome under two deforestation scenarios. We find that, on average, cumulative deforestation in South America from 1982 to 2020 has reduced rainfall over the period 2016-2020 by 18% over deforested areas, and by 9% over non-deforested areas across South America. We also find that more recent deforestation, that is, from 2000 to 2020, has reduced rainfall over the period 2016-2020 by 10% over deforested areas and by 5% over non-deforested areas. Deforestation between 1982 and 2020 has led to a doubling in the area experiencing a minimum dry season of 4 months in the Amazon biome. Similarly, in the Cerrado region, there has been a corresponding doubling in the area with a minimum dry season of 7 months. These changes are compared to a hypothetical scenario where no deforestation occurred. Complete conversion of all Amazon forest land outside protected areas would reduce average annual rainfall in the Amazon by 36% and complete deforestation of all forest cover including protected areas would reduce average annual rainfall in the Amazon by 68%. Our findings emphasize the urgent need for effective conservation measures to safeguard both forest ecosystems and sustainable agricultural practices.

The health impacts of Indonesian peatland fires.

BACKGROUND: Indonesian peatlands have been drained for agricultural development for several decades. This development has made a major contribution to economic development. At the same time, peatland drainage is causing significant air pollution resulting from peatland fires. Peatland fires occur every year, even though their extent is much larger in dry (El Niño) years. We examine the health effects of long-term exposure to fine particles (PM2.5) from all types of peatland fires (including the burning of above and below ground biomass) in Sumatra and Kalimantan, where most peatland fires in Indonesia take place. METHODS: We derive PM2.5 concentrations from satellite imagery calibrated and validated with Indonesian Government data on air pollution, and link increases in these concentrations to peatland fires, as observed in satellite imagery. Subsequently, we apply available epidemiological studies to relate PM2.5 exposure to a range of health outcomes. The model utilizes the age distribution and disease prevalence of the impacted population. RESULTS: We find that PM2.5 air pollution from peatland fires, causes, on average, around 33,100 adults and 2900 infants to die prematurely each year from air pollution. In addition, peatland fires cause on average around 4390 additional hospitalizations related to respiratory diseases, 635,000 severe cases of asthma in children, and 8.9 million lost workdays. The majority of these impacts occur in Sumatra because of its much higher population density compared to Kalimantan. A main source of uncertainty is in the Concentration Response Functions (CRFs) that we use, with different CRFs leading to annual premature adult mortality ranging from 19,900 to 64,800 deaths. Currently, the population of both regions is relatively young. With aging of the population over time, vulnerabilities to air pollution and health effects from peatland fires will increase. CONCLUSIONS: Peatland fire health impacts provide a further argument to combat fires in peatlands, and gradually transition to peatland management models that do not require drainage and are therefore not prone to fire risks.

Ecosystem services through the lens of indigenous people in the highlands of Cordillera Region, Northern Philippines.

Understanding the perception, use, and prioritization of ecosystem services (ES) is important for shaping local environmental policies. This study assessed for the Cordillera Region, Philippines, Indigenous peoples (IPs) perception on the significance of ES for their well-being, influence of socio-economic factors attributing to these perceptions, and ranked the most valued ES. Face-to-face interviews were conducted using a semi-structured questionnaires with 922 households in 48 villages of the Region. We found that most frequently identified and valued ES are provisioning (food, income, and medicinal resources) followed by cultural and regulating ES. The study showed signficant influence (p-value 0.001) of ethnicity, occupation, gender, and age to affect local perceptions of ES provided by the landscapes. A remarkable differences appeared in prioritizing ES, e.g. younger local respondents value ES more than older ones; women have appreciated most ES; and ethnic groupings tend to have a different value of ES that are significantly connected with the landscape characteristics. Traditional rice farming systems was ranked as source providing the most valued ES followed by conventional farming systems and off-farming activities like collection of non-timber forest products. Furthermore, IPs involvement to local surveys are useful in ecosystem conservation strategies because the way society modifies an ecosystem is a function associated to perceptions, interest, and values. A relevant information to decision-makers that must be integrated into local development planning to maintain the flow of ES that support the livelihood in a community.

Ecosystem service change caused by climatological and non-climatological drivers: a Swiss case study.

Understanding the drivers of ecosystem change and their effects on ecosystem services are essential for management decisions and verification of progress towards national and international sustainability policies (e.g., Aichi Biodiversity Targets, Sustainable Development Goals). We aim to disentangle spatially the effect of climatological and non-climatological drivers on ecosystem service supply and trends. Therefore, we explored time series of three ecosystem services in Switzerland between 2004 and 2014: carbon dioxide regulation, soil erosion prevention, and air quality regulation. We applied additive models to describe the spatial variation attributed to climatological (i.e., temperature, precipitation and relative sunshine duration) and non-climatological drivers (i.e., random effects representing other spatially structured processes) that may affect ecosystem service change. Obtained results indicated strong influences of climatological drivers on ecosystem service trends in Switzerland. We identified equal contributions of all three climatological drivers on trends of carbon dioxide regulation and soil erosion prevention, while air quality regulation was more strongly influenced by temperature. Additionally, our results showed that climatological and non-climatological drivers affected ecosystem services both negatively and positively, depending on the regions (in particular lower and higher altitudinal areas), drivers, and services assessed. Our findings highlight stronger effects of climatological compared to non-climatological drivers on ecosystem service change in Switzerland. Furthermore, drivers of ecosystem change display a spatial heterogeneity in their influence on ecosystem service trends. We propose an approach building on an additive model to disentangle the effect of climatological and non-climatological drivers on ecosystem service trends. Such analyses should be extended in the future to ecosystem service flow and demand to complete ecosystem service assessments and to demonstrate and communicate more clearly the benefits of ecosystem services for human well-being.

Assessing the Capacity of Ecosystems to Supply Ecosystem Services Using Remote Sensing and An Ecosystem Accounting Approach.

Ecosystems contribute to economic development through the supply of ecosystem services such as food and fresh water. Information on ecosystems and their services is required to support policy making, but this information is not captured in economic statistics. Ecosystem accounting has been developed to integrate ecosystems and ecosystem services into national accounts. Ecosystem accounting includes the compilation of an ecosystem services supply and use account, which reflects actual flows of ecosystem services, and the ecosystem capacity account, which reflects the capacity of ecosystems to sustainably supply ecosystem services. A capacity assessment requires detailed data on ecosystem processes, which are often not available over large scales. In this study, we examined how net primary productivity derived from remote sensing can be used as an indicator to assess changes in the capacity of ecosystems to supply services. We examine the spatial and temporal patterns in this capacity for the Orinoco river basin from 2001 to 2014. Specifically, we analyze the capacity of six types of ecosystems to supply timber, pastures for grazing cattle, oil palm fresh fruit bunches and to sequester carbon. We compared ecosystem capacities with the level of ecosystem service supply to assess a sustainable use of ecosystems. Our study provides insights on how the capacity of ecosystems can be quantified using remote sensing data in the context of ecosystem accounting. Ecosystem capacity indicators indicate ecosystems change and harvesting-regeneration patterns which are important for the design and monitoring of sustainable management regimes for ecosystems.

Linking planetary boundaries and ecosystem accounting, with an illustration for the Colombian Orinoco river basin.

Economic development has increased pressures on natural resources during the last decades. The concept of planetary boundaries has been developed to propose limits on human activities based on earth processes and ecological thresholds. However, this concept was not developed to downscale planetary boundaries to sub-global level. The absence of boundaries at sub-global levels constrains the use of the concept in environmental governance and natural resource management, because decisions are typically taken at these levels. Decisions at the national level are currently supported, among others, by statistical frameworks in particular the System of National Accounts. However, statistical frameworks were not developed to compile environmental information, hindering environmental decision making. Our study examines if and how ecosystem accounting can be used in combination with the concept of planetary boundaries in guiding human activities at the level of a river basin. We assess the applicability of both frameworks for natural resource management in the Orinoco river basin, based on adaptive management components. Our analysis indicates that differences in the purpose of analysis, information provided, and methods constrain the potential integration of both frameworks. Nevertheless, the way both frameworks conceptualize the social system and the interactions between social and ecological systems can facilitate translating planetary boundaries into indicators considered in ecosystem accounting. The information recorded in national ecosystem accounts can support establishing ecological thresholds and, more fundamentally, to relate ecological thresholds to human impacts on ecosystem condition. Capitalizing on these synergies requires further exchange of experiences between the communities working on ecosystem accounting and planetary boundaries.

Who Benefits from Ecosystem Services? A Case Study for Central Kalimantan, Indonesia.

There is increasing experience with the valuation of ecosystem services. However, to date, less attention has been devoted to who is actually benefiting from ecosystem services. This nevertheless is a key issue, in particular, if ecosystem services analysis and valuation is used to support environmental management. This study assesses and analyzes how the monetary benefits of seven ecosystem services are generated in Central Kalimantan Province, Indonesia, are distributed to different types of beneficiaries. We analyze the following ecosystem services: (1) timber production; (2) rattan collection; (3) jelutong resin collection; (4) rubber production (based on permanent agroforestry systems); (5) oil palm production on three management scales (company, plasma farmer, and independent smallholder); (6) paddy production; and (7) carbon sequestration. Our study shows that the benefits generated from these services differ markedly between the stakeholders, which we grouped into private, public, and household entities. The distribution of these benefits is strongly influenced by government policies and in particular benefit sharing mechanisms. Hence, land-use change and policies influencing land-use change can be expected to have different impacts on different stakeholders. Our study also shows that the benefits generated by oil palm conversion, a main driver for land-use change in the province, are almost exclusively accrued by companies and at this point in time are shared unequally with local stakeholders.

Benefits and costs of oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, under different policy scenarios.

Deforestation and oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan province are among the highest in Indonesia. This study examines the physical and monetary impacts of oil palm expansion in Central Kalimantan up to 2025 under three policy scenarios. Our modelling approach combines a spatial logistic regression model with a set of rules governing land use change as a function of the policy scenario. Our physical and monetary analyses include palm oil expansion and five other ecosystem services: timber, rattan, paddy rice, carbon sequestration, and orangutan habitat (the last service is analysed in physical units only). In monetary terms, our analysis comprises the contribution of land and ecosystems to economic production, as measured according to the valuation approach of the System of National Accounts. We focus our analysis on government-owned land which covers around 97 % of the province, where the main policy issues are. We show that, in the business-as-usual scenario, the societal costs of carbon emissions and the loss of other ecosystem services far exceed the benefits from increased oil palm production. This is, in particular, related to the conversion of peatlands. We also show that, for Central Kalimantan, the moratorium scenario, which is modelled based on the moratorium currently in place in Indonesia, generates important economic benefits compared to the business-as-usual scenario. In the moratorium scenario, however, there is still conversion of forest to plantation and associated loss of ecosystem services. We developed an alternative, sustainable production scenario based on an ecosystem services approach and show that this policy scenario leads to higher net social benefits including some more space for oil palm expansion.

Invasive Candida infections and the harm from antibacterial drugs in critically ill patients: data from a randomized, controlled trial to determine the role of ciprofloxacin, piperacillin-tazobactam, meropenem, and cefuroxime.

OBJECTIVE: Use of antibiotics in critically ill patients may increase the risk of invasive Candida infection. The objective of this study was to determine whether increased exposure to antibiotics is associated with increased prevalence of invasive Candida infection. DESIGN: Substudy using data from a randomized controlled trial, the Procalcitonin And Survival Study 2006-2010. SETTING: Nine multidisciplinary ICUs across Denmark. PATIENTS: A total of 1,200 critically ill patients. INTERVENTION: Patients were randomly allocated to either a "high exposure" antibiotic therapy (intervention arm, n = 604) or a "standard exposure" guided by current guidelines (n = 596). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Seventy-four patients met the endpoint, "invasive Candida infection," 40 in the high exposure arm and 34 in standard exposure arm (relative risk = 1.2; 95% CI, 0.7-1.8; p = 0.52). Among medical patients in the high exposure arm, the use of ciprofloxacin and piperacillin/tazobactam was 51% and 75% higher than in the standard exposure arm; no difference in antibiotic exposure was observed between the randomized arms in surgical patients. Among medical intensive care patients, invasive Candida infection was more frequent in the high exposure arm (6.2%; 27/437) than in standard exposure arm (3.3%; 14/424) (hazard ratio = 1.9; 95% CI, 1.0-3.6; p = 0.05). Ciprofloxacin used at study entry independently predicted invasive Candida infection (adjusted hazard ratio = 2.1 [1.1-4.1]); the risk gradually increased with duration of ciprofloxacin therapy: six of 384 in patients not exposed (1.6%), eight of 212 (3.8%) when used for 1-2 days (hazard ratio = 2.5; 95% CI, 0.9-7.3), and 31 of 493 (6.3%) when used for 3 days (hazard ratio = 3.8; 95% CI, 1.6-9.3; p = 0.002). Patients with any ciprofloxacin-containing antibiotic regimen the first 3 days in the trial had a higher risk of invasive Candida infection than did patients on any antibiotic regimen not containing ciprofloxacin (unadjusted hazard ratio = 3.7; 95% CI, 1.6-8.7; p = 0.003; adjusted hazard ratio, 3.4; 95% CI, 1.4-8.0; p = 0.006). CONCLUSIONS: High exposure to antibiotics is associated to increased risk of invasive Candida infection in medical intensive care patients. Patients with ciprofloxacin-containing regimens had higher risk of invasive Candida infection. Other antibiotics, such as meropenem, piperacillin/tazobactam, and cefuroxime, were not associated with such a risk.

Profound endothelial damage predicts impending organ failure and death in sepsis.

Endothelial damage contributes to organ failure and mortality in sepsis, but the extent of the contribution remains poorly quantified. Here, we examine the association between biomarkers of superficial and profound endothelial damage (syndecan-1 and soluble thrombomodulin [sTM], respectively), organ failure, and death in sepsis. The data from a clinical trial, including critically ill patients predominantly suffering sepsis (Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT00271752) were studied. Syndecan-1 and sTM levels at the time of study enrollment were determined. The predictive ability of biomarker levels on death and organ failures during follow-up were assessed in Cox models adjusted for potential confounders including key organ dysfunction measures assessed at enrollment. Of the 1,103 included patients, 418 died. sTM levels at the time of enrollment independently predicted risk of death in adjusted models (hazard ratio [HR] [highest quartile > 14 ng/mL vs. lowest quartile < 7 ng/mL] 2.2 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.2-4.0], p = 0.02, respectively). Conversely, syndecan-1 levels failed to predict death (adjusted HR [> 240 vs. < 70 ng/mL] 1.0 [95% CI: 0.6-1.5], p = 0.67). sTM but not syndecan-1 levels at enrollment predicted risk of multiple organ failure during follow-up (HR [> 14 ng/mL vs. < 7 ng/mL] 3.5 [95% CI: 1.5-8.3], p = 0.005 and 2.0 [95% CI: 0.8-5.0], p = 0.1321, respectively). Profound damage to the endothelium independently predicts risk of multiple organ failure and death in septic patients. Our findings also suggest that the detrimental effect of profound endothelial damage on risk of death operates via mechanisms other than causing organ failures per se. Therefore, damage to the endothelium appears centrally involved in the pathogenesis of death in sepsis and could be a target for intervention.

Mapping ecosystem services for land use planning, the case of Central Kalimantan.

Indonesia is subject to rapid land use change. One of the main causes for the conversion of land is the rapid expansion of the oil palm sector. Land use change involves a progressive loss of forest cover, with major impacts on biodiversity and global CO2 emissions. Ecosystem services have been proposed as a concept that would facilitate the identification of sustainable land management options, however, the scale of land conversion and its spatial diversity pose particular challenges in Indonesia. The objective of this paper is to analyze how ecosystem services can be mapped at the provincial scale, focusing on Central Kalimantan, and to examine how ecosystem services maps can be used for a land use planning. Central Kalimantan is subject to rapid deforestation including the loss of peatland forests and the provincial still lacks a comprehensive land use plan. We examine how seven key ecosystem services can be mapped and modeled at the provincial scale, using a variety of models, and how large scale ecosystem services maps can support the identification of options for sustainable expansion of palm oil production.

Spatial predictions and uncertainties of forest carbon fluxes for carbon accounting.

Countries have pledged to different national and international environmental agreements, most prominently the climate change mitigation targets of the Paris Agreement. Accounting for carbon stocks and flows (fluxes) is essential for countries that have recently adopted the United Nations System of Environmental-Economic Accounting - ecosystem accounting framework (UNSEEA) as a global statistical standard. In this paper, we analyze how spatial carbon fluxes can be used in support of the UNSEEA carbon accounts in five case countries with available in-situ data. Using global multi-date biomass map products and other remotely sensed data, we mapped the 2010-2018 carbon fluxes in Brazil, the Netherlands, the Philippines, Sweden and the USA using National Forest Inventory (NFI) and local biomass maps from airborne LiDAR as reference data. We identified areas that are unsupported by the reference data within environmental feature space (6-47% of vegetated country area); cross-validated an ensemble machine learning (RMSE=9-39 Mg C [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]=0.16-0.71) used to map carbon fluxes with prediction intervals; and assessed spatially correlated residuals (<5 km) before aggregating carbon fluxes from 1-ha pixels to UNSEEA forest classes. The resulting carbon accounting tables revealed the net carbon sequestration in natural broadleaved forests. Both in plantations and in other woody vegetation ecosystems, emissions exceeded sequestration. Overall, our estimates align with FAO-Forest Resource Assessment and national studies with the largest deviations in Brazil and USA. These two countries used highly clustered reference data, where clustering caused uncertainty given the need to extrapolate to under-sampled areas. We finally provide recommendations to mitigate the effect of under-sampling and to better account for the uncertainties once carbon stocks and flows need to be aggregated in relatively smaller countries. These actions are timely given the global initiatives that aim to upscale UNSEEA carbon accounting.

The impact of first-generation biofuels on the depletion of the global phosphorus reserve.

The large majority of biofuels to date is "first-generation" biofuel made from agricultural commodities. All first-generation biofuel production systems require phosphorus (P) fertilization. P is an essential plant nutrient, yet global reserves are finite. We argue that committing scarce P to biofuel production involves a trade-off between climate change mitigation and future food production. We examine biofuel production from seven types of feedstock, and find that biofuels at present consume around 2% of the global inorganic P fertilizer production. For all examined biofuels, with the possible exception of sugarcane, the contribution to P depletion exceeds the contribution to mitigating climate change. The relative benefits of biofuels can be increased through enhanced recycling of P, but high increases in P efficiency are required to balance climate change mitigation and P depletion impacts. We conclude that, with the current production systems, the production of first-generation biofuels compromises food production in the future.

Early Biomarker-Guided Prediction of Bloodstream Infection in Critically Ill Patients: C-Reactive Protein, Procalcitonin, and Leukocytes.

Background: Bloodstream infections (BSIs) often lead to critical illness and death. The primary aim of this study was to determine the diagnostic accuracy of the biomarkers C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), and leukocyte count for the diagnosis of BSI in critically ill patients. Methods: This was a nested case-control study based on the Procalcitonin And Survival Study (PASS) trial (n = 1200). Patients who were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) <24 hours, and not expected to die within <24 hours, were recruited. For the current study, we included patients with a BSI within ±3 days of ICU admission and matched controls without a BSI in a 1:2 ratio. Diagnostic accuracy for BSI for the biomarkers on days 1, 2, and 3 of ICU admission was assessed. Sensitivity, specificity, and negative and positive predictive values were calculated for prespecified thresholds and for a data-driven cutoff. Results: In total, there were 525 patients (n = 175 cases, 350 controls). The fixed low threshold for all 3 biomarkers (CRP = 20 mg/L; leucocytes = 10 × 109/L; PCT = 0.4 ng/mL) resulted in negative predictive values on day 1: CRP = 0.91; 95% CI, 0.75-1.00; leukocyte = 0.75; 95% CI, 0.68-0.81; PCT = 0.91; 95% CI, 0.84-0.96). Combining the 3 biomarkers yielded similar results as PCT alone (P = .5). Conclusions: CRP and PCT could in most cases rule out BSI in critically ill patients. As almost no patients had low CRP and ∼20% had low PCT, a low PCT could be used, along with other information, to guide clinical decisions.

Procalcitonin-guided interventions against infections to increase early appropriate antibiotics and improve survival in the intensive care unit: a randomized trial.

OBJECTIVE: For patients in intensive care units, sepsis is a common and potentially deadly complication and prompt initiation of appropriate antimicrobial therapy improves prognosis. The objective of this trial was to determine whether a strategy of antimicrobial spectrum escalation, guided by daily measurements of the biomarker procalcitonin, could reduce the time to appropriate therapy, thus improving survival. DESIGN: Randomized controlled open-label trial. SETTING: Nine multidisciplinary intensive care units across Denmark. PATIENTS: A total of 1,200 critically ill patients were included after meeting the following eligibility requirements: expected intensive care unit stay of ≥ 24 hrs, nonpregnant, judged to not be harmed by blood sampling, bilirubin <40 mg/dL, and triglycerides <1000 mg/dL (not suspensive). INTERVENTIONS: : Patients were randomized either to the "standard-of-care-only arm," receiving treatment according to the current international guidelines and blinded to procalcitonin levels, or to the "procalcitonin arm," in which current guidelines were supplemented with a drug-escalation algorithm and intensified diagnostics based on daily procalcitonin measurements. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The primary end point was death from any cause at day 28; this occurred for 31.5% (190 of 604) patients in the procalcitonin arm and for 32.0% (191 of 596) patients in the standard-of-care-only arm (absolute risk reduction, 0.6%; 95% confidence interval [CI] -4.7% to 5.9%). Length of stay in the intensive care unit was increased by one day (p = .004) in the procalcitonin arm, the rate of mechanical ventilation per day in the intensive care unit increased 4.9% (95% CI, 3.0-6.7%), and the relative risk of days with estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m was 1.21 (95% CI, 1.15-1.27). CONCLUSIONS: Procalcitonin-guided antimicrobial escalation in the intensive care unit did not improve survival and did lead to organ-related harm and prolonged admission to the intensive care unit. The procalcitonin strategy like the one used in this trial cannot be recommended.

Social media and deep learning capture the aesthetic quality of the landscape.

Peoples' recreation and well-being are closely related to their aesthetic enjoyment of the landscape. Ecosystem service (ES) assessments record the aesthetic contributions of landscapes to peoples' well-being in support of sustainable policy goals. However, the survey methods available to measure these contributions restrict modelling at large scales. As a result, most studies rely on environmental indicator models but these do not incorporate peoples' actual use of the landscape. Now, social media has emerged as a rich new source of information to understand human-nature interactions while advances in deep learning have enabled large-scale analysis of the imagery uploaded to these platforms. In this study, we test the accuracy of Flickr and deep learning-based models of landscape quality using a crowdsourced survey in Great Britain. We find that this novel modelling approach generates a strong and comparable level of accuracy versus an indicator model and, in combination, captures additional aesthetic information. At the same time, social media provides a direct measure of individuals' aesthetic enjoyment, a point of view inaccessible to indicator models, as well as a greater independence of the scale of measurement and insights into how peoples' appreciation of the landscape changes over time. Our results show how social media and deep learning can support significant advances in modelling the aesthetic contributions of ecosystems for ES assessments.

Assessing the monetary value of ecosystem services provided by Gaung - Batang Tuaka Peat Hydrological Unit (KHG), Riau Province.

Peatland plays a pivotal role in providing natural resource production and environmental services for human welfare. However, many studies have mentioned the impact of dryland cultivation in peatland on the shifting carbon balance in the ecosystem that clearly will alter the interaction of these two ecosystem services. The goal of this study, conducted under the framework of the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) framework, was to monetary value the ecosystem services (ES) of provisioning and carbon regulating services of the Gaung-Batang Tuaka Peat Hydrological Unit (KHG). We focused on KHG in response to Regulation No.57/2016, which highlights ecosystem boundary as a new basis for peatland management. Under the SEEA framework, ecosystem services become a benefit when utilized by ecosystem beneficiaries. In this case, provisioning services will be valued only for cultivated land, while carbon services calculated for the entire study area (global beneficiaries). Our study showed that the provisioning services and carbon services are under the trade-off condition, where the monetary value of provisioning services increased at a slower rate (0.50 million USD annually) than the monetary loss of the benefit of carbon services (5.28 million USD annually), greatly exceeded the monetary value of provisioning services. We highlight two main strategies to increase the monetary value of the KHG towards a synergy condition, namely increased value-added by reducing the productivity gap among ES beneficiaries and large-scale adoption of a profitable cultivation system with minimum peat disturbance. The main enablers required include financing access and incentives (e.g., reduce tax) and disincentives to allow for peat-adaptive commodities to compete with dryland commodities in the future market.

ABO blood types and sepsis mortality.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to determine if the ABO blood types carry different risks of 30-day mortality, acute kidney injury (AKI), and endothelial damage in critically ill patients with sepsis. This was a retrospective cohort study of three independent cohorts of critically ill patients from the United States and Scandinavia consisting of adults with septic shock. We compared the 30-day mortality across the blood types within each cohort and pooled the results in a meta-analysis. We also estimated the incidence of AKI and degree of endothelial damage, as measured by blood concentrations of soluble thrombomodulin and syndecan-1. RESULTS: We included 12,342 patients with severe sepsis. In a pooled analysis blood type B carried a slightly lower risk of 30-day all-cause mortality compared to non-blood type B (adjusted HR 0.88; 95%-CI 0.79-0.98; p = 0.02). There was no difference in the risk of AKI. Soluble thrombomodulin and syndecan-1 concentrations were lower in patients with blood type B and O compared to blood type A, suggesting less endothelial damage. CONCLUSION: Septic patients with blood type B had less endothelial damage, and a small reduction in mortality. The exposure is, however, unmodifiable.

Development of SEEA water accounts with a hydrological model.

Worldwide, water resources are increasingly under pressure. The Water accounting approach of the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) has been developed to inform decision-makers on water supply, use, and quality. However, a critical issue in water accounting is finding data and models to populate SEEA water accounts. In particular, there are challenges in aligning hydrological models with accounting principles. Also, there is a need to test further how the SEEA water accounts can be connected to policy uses. The objective of this study is to develop water accounts with the use of a hydrological model. Specifically, we apply the SWAT hydrological model in the Buyuk Menderes Basin in Turkey to estimate the key hydrological parameters required for water accounting. To adapt and link SWAT to SEEA water accounts, we develop supply and use tables and asset accounts following the SEEA water for the year 2014 and explore how water accounts can inform policymaking. This article provides new insights into the added value of using a hydrological model in constructing water accounts for better water resources management.