Predicting bee community responses to land-use changes: Effects of geographic and taxonomic biases.

Land-use change and intensification threaten bee populations worldwide, imperilling pollination services. Global models are needed to better characterise, project, and mitigate bees' responses to these human impacts. The available data are, however, geographically and taxonomically unrepresentative; most data are from North America and Western Europe, overrepresenting bumblebees and raising concerns that model results may not be generalizable to other regions and taxa. To assess whether the geographic and taxonomic biases of data could undermine effectiveness of models for conservation policy, we have collated from the published literature a global dataset of bee diversity at sites facing land-use change and intensification, and assess whether bee responses to these pressures vary across 11 regions (Western, Northern, Eastern and Southern Europe; North, Central and South America; Australia and New Zealand; South East Asia; Middle and Southern Africa) and between bumblebees and other bees. Our analyses highlight strong regionally-based responses of total abundance, species richness and Simpson's diversity to land use, caused by variation in the sensitivity of species and potentially in the nature of threats. These results suggest that global extrapolation of models based on geographically and taxonomically restricted data may underestimate the true uncertainty, increasing the risk of ecological surprises.

Genetic diversity and mass resources promote colony size and forager densities of a social bee (Bombus pascuorum) in agricultural landscapes.

Although habitat fragmentation and agricultural intensification are known as threads to pollinator diversity, little is known about consequences for population size and genetic diversity. Here, we combined detailed field observations, molecular approaches and GIS-based quantification of landscape structure (measured by proportions of seminatural habitats and proportions of mass flowering crops) to get new insights into driving forces of population dynamics of the bumblebee species Bombus pascuorum. Comparing 13 agriculturally dominated landscape sectors, we found the proportion of mass flowering crops to positively influence bumblebee abundance whereas the proportion of seminatural habitats was of minor importance. We used microsatellites to quantify landscape-related colony densities, inbreeding and population substructure. Detected colony densities did not correlate with landscape parameters or with local worker abundance, measured by field observations. These results indicate that increased worker abundances within landscapes are rather due to greater colony sizes than due to an increased number of nests. We found significant population substructure, measured by F(ST) and seven landscape sectors to bear significantly increased inbreeding values (F(IS)). F(IS) was strongly varying between sectors but did not correlate with landscape structure. Moreover, F(IS) had a significantly negative effect on colony size, demonstrating the importance of genetic diversity on population fitness at a landscape scale. We suggest that inbreeding levels might be related to the temporal variation of food resources and population sizes in agricultural landscapes.