Estimating geographic variation of infection fatality ratios during epidemics.

Objectives: We aim to estimate geographic variability in total numbers of infections and infection fatality ratios (IFR; the number of deaths caused by an infection per 1,000 infected people) when the availability and quality of data on disease burden are limited during an epidemic. Methods: We develop a noncentral hypergeometric framework that accounts for differential probabilities of positive tests and reflects the fact that symptomatic people are more likely to seek testing. We demonstrate the robustness, accuracy, and precision of this framework, and apply it to the United States (U.S.) COVID-19 pandemic to estimate county-level SARS-CoV-2 IFRs. Results: The estimators for the numbers of infections and IFRs showed high accuracy and precision; for instance, when applied to simulated validation data sets, across counties, Pearson correlation coefficients between estimator means and true values were 0.996 and 0.928, respectively, and they showed strong robustness to model misspecification. Applying the county-level estimators to the real, unsimulated COVID-19 data spanning April 1, 2020 to September 30, 2020 from across the U.S., we found that IFRs varied from 0 to 44.69, with a standard deviation of 3.55 and a median of 2.14. Conclusions: The proposed estimation framework can be used to identify geographic variation in IFRs across settings.

Biochemical characterization of Fsa16295Glu from "Fervidibacter sacchari," the first hyperthermophilic GH50 with ß-1,3-endoglucanase activity and founding member of the subfamily GH50_3.

The aerobic hyperthermophile "Fervidibacter sacchari" catabolizes diverse polysaccharides and is the only cultivated member of the class "Fervidibacteria" within the phylum Armatimonadota. It encodes 117 putative glycoside hydrolases (GHs), including two from GH family 50 (GH50). In this study, we expressed, purified, and functionally characterized one of these GH50 enzymes, Fsa16295Glu. We show that Fsa16295Glu is a ß-1,3-endoglucanase with optimal activity on carboxymethyl curdlan (CM-curdlan) and only weak agarase activity, despite most GH50 enzymes being described as ß-agarases. The purified enzyme has a wide temperature range of 4-95°C (optimal 80°C), making it the first characterized hyperthermophilic representative of GH50. The enzyme is also active at a broad pH range of at least 5.5-11 (optimal 6.5-10). Fsa16295Glu possesses a relatively high kcat/KM of 1.82 × 107 s-1 M-1 with CM-curdlan and degrades CM-curdlan nearly completely to sugar monomers, indicating preferential hydrolysis of glucans containing ß-1,3 linkages. Finally, a phylogenetic analysis of Fsa16295Glu and all other GH50 enzymes revealed that Fsa16295Glu is distant from other characterized enzymes but phylogenetically related to enzymes from thermophilic archaea that were likely acquired horizontally from "Fervidibacteria." Given its functional and phylogenetic novelty, we propose that Fsa16295Glu represents a new enzyme subfamily, GH50_3.