Creating symptom-based criteria for diagnostic testing: a case study based on a multivariate analysis of data collected during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in New Zealand.

BACKGROUND: Diagnostic testing using PCR is a fundamental component of COVID-19 pandemic control. Criteria for determining who should be tested by PCR vary between countries, and ultimately depend on resource constraints and public health objectives. Decisions are often based on sets of symptoms in individuals presenting to health services, as well as demographic variables, such as age, and travel history. The objective of this study was to determine the sensitivity and specificity of sets of symptoms used for triaging individuals for confirmatory testing, with the aim of optimising public health decision making under different scenarios. METHODS: Data from the first wave of COVID-19 in New Zealand were analysed; comprising 1153 PCR-confirmed and 4750 symptomatic PCR negative individuals. Data were analysed using Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA), automated search algorithms, Bayesian Latent Class Analysis, Decision Tree Analysis and Random Forest (RF) machine learning. RESULTS: Clinical criteria used to guide who should be tested by PCR were based on a set of mostly respiratory symptoms: a new or worsening cough, sore throat, shortness of breath, coryza, anosmia, with or without fever. This set has relatively high sensitivity (> 90%) but low specificity (< 10%), using PCR as a quasi-gold standard. In contrast, a group of mostly non-respiratory symptoms, including weakness, muscle pain, joint pain, headache, anosmia and ageusia, explained more variance in the MCA and were associated with higher specificity, at the cost of reduced sensitivity. Using RF models, the incorporation of 15 common symptoms, age, sex and prioritised ethnicity provided algorithms that were both sensitive and specific (> 85% for both) for predicting PCR outcomes. CONCLUSIONS:  If predominantly respiratory symptoms are used for test-triaging,  a large proportion of the individuals being tested may not have COVID-19. This could overwhelm testing capacity and hinder attempts to trace and eliminate infection. Specificity can be increased using alternative rules based on sets of symptoms informed by multivariate analysis and automated search algorithms, albeit at the cost of sensitivity. Both sensitivity and specificity can be improved through machine learning algorithms, incorporating symptom and demographic data, and hence may provide an alternative approach to test-triaging that can be optimised according to prevailing conditions.

Seroprevalence and risk factors for bovine brucellosis in the state of Paraná, Brazil: an analysis after 18 years of ongoing control measures.

Seroprevalence and risk factors of bovine brucellosis (Brucella abortus) in herds and cattle were estimated by a cross-sectional study in the state of Paraná, Brazil. The state was divided into seven regions and a random, two-stage sampling was performed on properties and cattle from each region between 2018 and 2019. Serum samples were collected from 11,592 cows over 24 months from 1,757 properties and a questionnaire was applied to identify potential risk factors. As recommended by the National Program for the Control and Eradication of Animal Brucellosis and Tuberculosis (PNCEBT), serological testing for the detection of anti-Brucella antibodies included the buffered plate agglutination test (screening test) and the fluorescence polarization assay (confirmatory test). The seroprevalence of bovine brucellosis on properties and in cattle was 4.87% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.98-5.93%) and 2.24% (95% CI: 1.47-3.41%), respectively. Multiple logistic regression analysis identified larger herd size and failure to test for brucellosis as risk factors for the presence of anti-B. abortus antibodies. These results demonstrate no change in the prevalence when comparing initial studies conducted in 2002. Given our findings, it is recommended that policies for brucellosis control include a widespread vaccination program for higher prevalence areas and eradication approach to lower prevalence areas. All steps related to correct immunization of the herds should be verified and improved by training and education. Health education action must be carried out informing farmers about the risks of introducing animals not tested for brucellosis into their herds and the benefits of testing their herds regularly.

Estimation of the within-herd transmission rates of bovine viral diarrhoea virus in extensively grazed beef cattle herds.

Many research groups have developed mathematical models to simulate the dynamics of BVDV infections in cattle herds. However, most models use estimates for within-herd BVDV transmission rates that are either based on expert opinion or adapted from other dairy herd simulation models presented in the literature. There is currently little information on the transmission rates for BVDV in extensively grazed beef herds partly due to the logistical challenges in obtaining longitudinal data of individual animal's seroconversion, and it may not be appropriate to apply the same transmission rates from intensive dairy herds given the significant differences in herd demographics and management. To address this knowledge gap, we measured BVDV antibody levels in 15 replacement heifers in each of 75 New Zealand beef breeding farms after their first calving and again at pregnancy scanning or weaning to check for seroconversion. Among these, data from 9 farms were used to infer the within-herd BVDV transmission rate with an approximate Bayesian computation method. The most probable within-herd BVDV transmission rate was estimated as 0.11 per persistently infected (PI) animal per day with a 95% highest posterior density interval between 0.03 and 0.34. This suggests that BVDV transmission in extensively grazed beef herds is generally slower than in dairy herds where the transmission rate has been estimated at 0.50 per PI animal per day and therefore may not be sufficient to ensure that all susceptible breeding females gain adequate immunity to the virus before the risk period of early pregnancy for generating new PI calves.

Investigation of Toxoplasma gondii and association with early pregnancy and abortion rates in New Zealand farmed red deer (Cervus elaphus).

This study tested for association between Toxoplasma gondii and pregnancy and abortion to investigate sub-optimal reproduction in farmed red deer (Cervus elaphus). Sera from a sub-sample (n = 2304) of pregnant and non-pregnant hinds in early gestation at first pregnancy scan (scan 1) and approximately at the end of second trimester at second pregnancy scan (scan 2) were tested for T. gondii antibodies using a validated ELISA. Foetuses and/or uteri from pregnant, non-pregnant, and aborting hinds at scan 1, scan 2, or weaning were tested for T. gondii DNA by nested PCR. At scan 1, 31.1% of 861 rising two-year-old (R2) and 28.3% of 357 mixed-aged (MA, ≥ 2 years) hinds were sero-positive. There was no association between scan 1 serology and non-pregnancy at animal (R2, p = 0.05 and MA, p = 0.43) or herd level (R2, p = 0.37). Toxoplasma gondii DNA was detected in 3/18 placenta and 4/18 foetal brains from aborting R2 hinds and 15/157 R2 and 3/21 MA uteri from non-pregnant hinds at scan 1. At scan 2, sero-prevalence was higher (odds ratio = 1.6, 95% CI = 1.04-2.48) in aborted (34.3% of 268) than in non-aborted (23.5% of 446) R2 hinds (p = 0.03) and 7.9% of abortions between scans were attributable to T. gondii exposure. Within-herd sero-prevalence at scan 2 was positively associated with daily abortion rate in R2 herds with aborted hinds (p < 0.001) but not in MA herds (p = 0.07). Toxoplasma gondii DNA was detected in 27/169 uteri, 2/20 cotyledons, and 1/5 foetal brains from aborted hinds at scan 2 and in uteri from 5/33 hinds not rearing a calf to weaning. Toxoplasma gondii RFLP genotyping of five loci revealed a unique type I/III genotype pattern, TgRDNZ1, in a foetal brain sample, not been previously reported in deer. These findings provide serological and molecular evidence that T. gondii infection is associated with abortion in red deer, possibly in all three trimesters.

A synthesis of the patho-physiology of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis infection in sheep to inform mathematical modelling of ovine paratuberculosis.

This literature review of exposure to Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) in sheep enabled a synthesis of the patho-physiology of ovine paratuberculosis (PTB). These results could be used to inform subsequent modelling of ovine PTB. We reviewed studies of both experimental and natural exposure. They were generally comparable. Possible outcomes following exposure were latent infection, i.e. mere colonization without lesions; active infection, with inflammatory histopathology in the intestinal tissues resulting in mild disease and low faecal shedding; and affection, with severe intestinal pathology, reduced production, clinical signs and high faecal shedding. Latent infection was an uninformative outcome for modelling. By contrast, histological lesions and their grade appeared to be a good marker of active infection and progression stages to clinical disease. The two possible pathways following infection are non-progression leading to recovery and progression to clinical disease, causing death. These pathways are mediated by different immune mechanisms. This synthesis suggested that host-related characteristics such as age at exposure and breed, combined with pathogen-related factors such as MAP dose, strain and inoculum type for experimental infection, have a strong influence on the outcome of exposure. The material reviewed consisted of disparate studies often with low numbers of sheep and study-level confounders. Hence comparisons between and across studies was difficult and this precluded quantitative model parameter estimation. Nevertheless, it allowed a robust synthesis of the current understanding of patho-physiology of ovine PTB, which can inform mathematical modelling of this disease.

Bayesian methods of confidence interval construction for the population attributable risk from cross-sectional studies.

Population attributable risk measures the public health impact of the removal of a risk factor. To apply this concept to epidemiological data, the calculation of a confidence interval to quantify the uncertainty in the estimate is desirable. However, because perhaps of the confusion surrounding the attributable risk measures, there is no standard confidence interval or variance formula given in the literature. In this paper, we implement a fully Bayesian approach to confidence interval construction of the population attributable risk for cross-sectional studies. We show that, in comparison with a number of standard Frequentist methods for constructing confidence intervals (i.e. delta, jackknife and bootstrap methods), the Bayesian approach is superior in terms of percent coverage in all except a few cases. This paper also explores the effect of the chosen prior on the coverage and provides alternatives for particular situations. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Minimum inhibitory concentrations of selected antimicrobials against Escherichia coli and Trueperella pyogenes of bovine uterine origin.

Minimum inhibitory concentrations (MIC) of 9 antimicrobials for isolates of 2 common bovine intrauterine bacterial pathogens, Escherichia coli (n=209) and Trueperella pyogenes (n=35), were determined using broth microdilution methodology. The isolates were recovered from dairy cows from 7 herds postpartum using the cytobrush technique. The pathogens were initially identified using phenotypic techniques. Additionally, PCR was used to confirm the identity of T. pyogenes isolates and to categorize the E. coli isolates into phylogenetic groups A, B1, B2, and D. Minimum inhibitory concentrations in excess of published cut-points or bimodal distributions of MIC indicated potential antimicrobial resistance to ampicillin, cefuroxime, cephapirin, and oxytetracycline for E. coli, and to oxytetracycline for T. pyogenes. Of the antimicrobials tested, ticarcillin/clavulanic acid, ceftiofur, and enrofloxacin had the lowest MIC for these 2 pathogens. Differences in MIC of some antimicrobials were found between herds, age, breeds, and E. coli phylogenetic groups. Isolation of E. coli with an MIC ≥8µg/mL of oxytetracycline at 23d postpartum was associated with a lower probability of pregnancy within 6wk of commencement of breeding compared with those isolates with an MIC <8µg/mL (relative risk=0.66). Minimum inhibitory concentrations for uterine pathogens were determined for isolates from New Zealand dairy cows. However, in the absence of either epidemiological or clinical interpretive criteria, the interpretation of these MIC remains unclear. Further studies are required to define interpretative criteria, including determination of pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic profiles for antimicrobials.

A novel Bayesian Latent Class Model (BLCM) evaluates multiple continuous and binary tests: A case study for Brucella abortus in dairy cattle.

Bovine brucellosis, primarily caused by Brucella abortus, severely affects both animal health and human well-being. Accurate diagnosis is crucial for designing informed control and prevention measures. Lacking a gold standard test makes it challenging to determine optimal cut-off values and evaluate the diagnostic performance of tests. In this study, we developed a novel Bayesian Latent Class Model that integrates both binary and continuous testing outcomes, incorporating additional fixed (parity) and random (farm) effects, to calibrate optimal cut-off values by maximizing Youden Index. We tested 651 serum samples collected from six dairy farms in two regions of Henan Province, China with four serological tests: Rose Bengal Test, Serum Agglutination Test, Fluorescence Polarization Assay, and Competitive Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay. Our analysis revealed that the optimal cut-off values for FPA and C-ELISA were 94.2 mP and 0.403 PI, respectively. Sensitivity estimates for the four tests ranged from 69.7% to 89.9%, while specificity estimates varied between 97.1% and 99.6%. The true prevalences in the two study regions in Henan province were 4.7% and 30.3%. Parity-specific odds ratios for positive serological status ranged from 1.2 to 2.2 for different parity groups compared to primiparous cows. This approach provides a robust framework for validating diagnostic tests for both continuous and discrete tests in the absence of a gold standard test. Our findings can enhance our ability to design targeted disease detection strategies and implement effective control measures for brucellosis in Chinese dairy farms.

Acknowledgements upon Conclusion of the Pathogens Special Issue "Epidemiology, Surveillance and Control of Infectious Diseases".

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Modelling variation in test sensitivity for monitoring leptospirosis in beef cattle.

When Bayesian latent class analysis is used for diagnostic test data in the absence of a gold standard test, it is common to assume that any unknown test sensitivities and specificities are constant across different populations. Indeed this assumption is often necessary for model identifiability. However there are a number of practical situations, depending on the type of test and the nature of the disease, where this assumption may not be true. We present a case study of using a microscopic agglutination test to diagnose leptospiroris infection in beef cattle, which strongly suggests that sensitivity in particular varies among herds. We develop and fit an alternative model in which sensitivity is related to within-herd prevalence, and discuss the statistical and epidemiological implications.

Estimates of Genetic Parameters for Milk, the Occurrence of and Susceptibility to Clinical Lameness and Claw Disorders in Dairy Goats.

The New Zealand goat industry accesses niche markets for high-value products, mainly formula for infants and young children. This study aimed to estimate the genetic parameters of occurrence and susceptibility of clinical lameness and selected claw disorders and establish their genetic associations with milk production traits. Information on pedigree, lameness, claw disorders, and milk production was collected on three farms between June 2019 and July 2020. The dataset contained 1637 does from 174 sires and 1231 dams. Estimates of genetic and residual (co)variances, heritabilities, and genetic and phenotypic correlations were obtained with uni- and bi-variate animal models. The models included the fixed effects of farm and parity, deviation from the median kidding date as a covariate, and the random effects of animal and residual error. The heritability (h2) estimates for lameness occurrence and susceptibility were 0.07 and 0.13, respectively. The h2 estimates for claw disorder susceptibilities ranged from 0.02 to 0.23. The genotypic correlations ranged from weak to very strong between lameness and milk production traits (-0.94 to 0.84) and weak to moderate (0.23 to 0.84) between claw disorder and milk production traits.

The Effect of Lameness on Milk Production of Dairy Goats.

Lameness on dairy goat farms is a welfare concern and could negatively affect milk production. This study's objective was to evaluate the effects of clinical lameness on the daily milk production of dairy goats. Between July 2019 and June 2020, 11,847 test-day records were collected from 3145 goats on three farms in New Zealand. Locomotion scoring of goats used a five-point scoring system (0 to 4). The dataset was split into two groups by lactation type, where goats were classified as being in seasonal lactation (≤305 days in milk) or extended lactation (>305 days in milk). A linear mixed model was used to analyze datasets using milk characteristics as the dependent variables. Severely lame goats (score 4) in seasonal and extended lactation produced 7.05% and 8.67% less milk than goats not lame, respectively. When the prevalence of severe lameness is between 5 and 20% of the herd, the estimated average daily milk income lost was between NZD 19.5 and 104 per day. This study established the negative impact of lameness on milk production and annual income in dairy goats on three farms.

A cross-sectional investigation of Leptospira at the wildlife-livestock interface in New Zealand.

There has been a recent upsurge in human cases of leptospirosis in New Zealand, with wildlife a suspected emerging source, but up-to-date knowledge on this topic is lacking. We conducted a cross-sectional study in two farm environments to estimate Leptospira seroprevalence in wildlife and sympatric livestock, PCR/culture prevalence in wildlife, and compare seroprevalence and prevalence between species, sex, and age groups. Traps targeting house mice (Mus musculus), black rats (Rattus rattus), hedgehogs (Erinaceus europaeus) and brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) were set for 10 trap-nights in March-April 2017 on a dairy (A) and a beef and sheep (B) farm. Trapped wild animals and an age-stratified random sample of domestic animals, namely cattle, sheep and working dogs were blood sampled. Sera were tested by microagglutination test for five serogroups and titres compared using a Proportional Similarity Index (PSI). Wildlife kidneys were sampled for culture and qPCR targeting the lipL32 gene. True prevalence in mice was assessed using occupancy modelling by collating different laboratory results. Infection profiles varied by species, age group and farm. At the MAT cut-point of ≥ 48, up to 78% of wildlife species, and 16-99% of domestic animals were seropositive. Five of nine hedgehogs, 23/105 mice and 1/14 black rats reacted to L. borgpetersenii sv Ballum. The sera of 4/18 possums and 4/9 hedgehogs reacted to L. borgpetersenii sv Hardjobovis whilst 1/18 possums and 1/9 hedgehogs reacted to Tarassovi. In ruminants, seroprevalence for Hardjobovis and Pomona ranged 0-90% and 0-71% depending on the species and age group. Titres against Ballum, Tarassovi and Copenhageni were also observed in 4-20%, 0-25% and 0-21% of domestic species, respectively. The PSI indicated rodents and livestock had the most dissimilar serological responses. Three of nine hedgehogs, 31/105 mice and 2/14 rats were carrying leptospires (PCR and/or culture positive). True prevalence estimated by occupancy modelling in mice was 38% [95% Credible Interval 26, 51%] on Farm A and 22% [11, 40%] on Farm B. In the same environment, exposure to serovars found in wildlife species was commonly detected in livestock. Transmission pathways between and within species should be assessed to help in the development of efficient mitigation strategies against Leptospira.

Evaluating serological tests for foot-and-mouth disease while accounting for different serotypes and uncertain vaccination status.

Controlling foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) by vaccination requires adequate population coverage and high vaccine efficacy under field conditions. To assure veterinary services that animals have acquired sufficient immunity, strategic post-vaccination surveys can be conducted to monitor the coverage and performance of the vaccine. Correct interpretation of these serological data and an ability to derive exact prevalence estimates of antibody responses requires an awareness of the performance of serological tests. Here, we used Bayesian latent class analysis to evaluate the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of four tests. A non-structural protein (NSP) ELISA determines vaccine independent antibodies from environmental exposure to FMD virus (FMDV), and three assays measuring total antibodies derived from vaccine antigen or environmental exposure to two serotypes (A, O): the virus neutralisation test (VNT), a solid phase competitive ELISA (SPCE), and a liquid phase blocking ELISA (LPBE). Sera (n = 461) were collected by a strategic post-vaccination monitoring survey in two provinces of Southern Lao People's Democratic Republic (PDR) after a vaccination campaign in early 2017. Not all samples were tested by every assay and each serotype: VNT tested for serotype A and O, whereas SPCE and LPBE tested for serotype O, and only NSP-negative samples were tested by VNT, with 90 of them not tested (missing by study design). These data challenges required informed priors (based on expert opinion) for mitigating possible lack of model identifiability. The vaccination status of each animal, its environmental exposure to FMDV, and the indicator of successful vaccination were treated as latent (unobserved) variables. Posterior median for sensitivity and specificity of all tests were in the range of 92-99 %, except for the sensitivity of NSP (∼66%) and the specificity of LPBE (∼71 %). There was strong evidence that SPCE outperformed LPBE. In addition, the proportion of animals recorded as having been vaccinated that showed a serological immune response was estimated to be in the range of 67-86 %. The Bayesian latent class modelling framework can easily and appropriately impute missing data. It is important to use field study data as diagnostic tests are likely to perform differently on field survey samples compared to samples obtained under controlled conditions.

Socioeconomic impacts of clinical foot-and-mouth disease and a risk-based partial vaccination campaign for smallholders in Lao People's Democratic Republic.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in Lao People's Democratic Republic (PDR). A risk-based partial vaccination campaign was implemented in Champasak, Savannakhet and Xiengkhouang Provinces in Lao PDR in 2016-2020, which had limited effects on reducing the circulation of FMD virus. The objectives of this study were to measure the socioeconomic effects of (i) a clinical FMD occurrence and (ii) the vaccination campaign on livestock production performance of smallholders in Lao PDR in 2016-2020. Two questionnaire surveys were conducted at the beginning (2016) and the end (2020) of the campaign, involving 1609 smallholders in 160 villages comparing areas with and without FMD control. Mixed-effect multivariable regression models were fitted to measure the association between livestock production parameters at the household level (rates of birth, sale, purchase, and death, sale price, costs, gross gains and net gains) and (i) a clinical FMD occurrence and (ii) the vaccination campaign, while adjusting for village, herd size, province, vaccination status and FMD knowledge. We found no significant difference in annual household-level costs, gains and net gains by due absence of FMD. However, smallholders with FMD had a 52% higher cattle death rate, a 43% lower goat sale rate and a 78% lower pig sale price than those without FMD. Smallholders with FMD also had a lower purchase rate of livestock (cattle -15% and pigs -93%) compared with those without FMD. There was a general improvement in livestock production in target villages over the 5 years of the vaccination campaign, whereas there was an overall decline in non-target villages, resulting in USD 218 higher net gains in target villages in 2020 compared with non-target villages, possibly due to reduced severity of disease and improved awareness on FMD and general livestock health. The findings of this study will help improve strategies for sustainable and efficient FMD control in Lao PDR, while the challenges and importance of gaining participation by smallholders are highlighted.

Impact of risk-based partial vaccination on clinical incidence and seroprevalence of foot and mouth disease in Lao PDR.

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in the Lao People's Democratic Republic (PDR) and it causes economic loss to smallholder husbandry systems. An intervention programme based on a risk-based partial vaccination strategy was implemented in three provinces of Lao PDR (Champasak, Savannakhet and Xiangkhouang) to immunise domestic cattle and buffalo during 2016-2020. Two cross-sectional surveys were conducted in 2016/17 and 2020 to evaluate the impact of the vaccination programme on the prevalence of FMD virus exposure and clinical incidence of the disease. A total of 212 villages were visited during the two surveys, collecting 1609 household-level questionnaire results and 5931 blood samples of domestic cattle and buffalo. Blood samples were tested for the presence of antibodies to the non-structural proteins of FMD virus, and seroprevalence of 42.5 and 47.5% in 2016/17 and 2020, respectively were found. Multivariable regression analysis indicated that the efficacy of the FMD vaccination programme for reducing FMD virus circulation varied by province. In general, the incidence of clinical FMD increased toward the end of the 5-year intervention period, coinciding with a reduction of vaccine coverage in the last 2 years of the period. The findings suggest that the risk-based vaccination strategy achieved a marginally protective effect against the circulation of FMD virus with the possible limiting factors being operational constraints of public veterinary services, lack of farmers' compliance and unsustainable funding. We conclude that consistent resource availability and higher vaccination coverage is required to successfully control FMD with a risk-based vaccination strategy in Lao PDR.

Of Mice, Cattle, and Men: A Review of the Eco-Epidemiology of Leptospira borgpetersenii Serovar Ballum.

In New Zealand (NZ), leptospirosis is a mostly occupational zoonosis, with >66% of the recently notified cases being farm or abattoir workers. Livestock species independently maintain Leptospira borgpetersenii serovar Hardjo and L. interrogans serovar Pomona, and both are included in livestock vaccines. The increasing importance in human cases of Ballum, a serovar associated with wildlife, suggests that wildlife may be an overlooked source of infection. Livestock could also act as bridge hosts for humans. Drawing from disease ecology frameworks, we chose five barriers to include in this review based on the hypothesis that cattle act as bridge hosts for Ballum. Using a narrative methodology, we collated published studies pertaining to (a) the distribution and abundance of potential wild maintenance hosts of Ballum, (b) the infection dynamics (prevalence and pathogenesis) in those same hosts, (c) Ballum shedding and survival in the environment, (d) the exposure and competency of cattle as a potential bridge host, and (e) exposure for humans as a target host of Ballum. Mice (Mus musculus), rats (Rattus rattus, R. norvegicus) and hedgehogs (Erinaceus europaeus) were suspected as maintenance hosts of Ballum in NZ in studies conducted in the 1970s-1980s. These introduced species are distributed throughout NZ, and are present on pastures. The role of other wildlife in Ballum (and more broadly Leptospira) transmission remains poorly defined, and has not been thoroughly investigated in NZ. The experimental and natural Ballum infection of cattle suggest a low pathogenicity and the possibility of shedding. The seroprevalence in cattle appears higher in recent serosurveys (3 to 14%) compared with studies from the 1970s (0 to 3%). This review identifies gaps in the knowledge of Ballum, and highlights cattle as a potential spillover host. Further studies are required to ascertain the role that wild and domestic species may play in the eco-epidemiology of Ballum in order to understand its survival in the environment, and to inform control strategies.

Comparative Genomics of Mycobacterium avium Subspecies Paratuberculosis Sheep Strains.

Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) is the aetiological agent of Johne's disease (JD), a chronic enteritis that causes major losses to the global livestock industry. Further, it has been associated with human Crohn's disease. Several strains of MAP have been identified, the two major groups being sheep strain MAP, which includes the Type I and Type III sub-lineages, and the cattle strain or Type II MAP lineage, of which bison strains are a sub-grouping. Major genotypic, phenotypic and pathogenic variations have been identified in prior comparisons, but the research has predominately focused on cattle strains of MAP. In countries where the sheep industries are more prevalent, however, such as Australia and New Zealand, ovine JD is a substantial burden. An information gap exists regarding the genomic differences between sheep strain sub-lineages and the relevance of Type I and Type III MAP in terms of epidemiology and/or pathogenicity. We therefore investigated sheep MAP isolates from Australia and New Zealand using whole genome sequencing. For additional context, sheep MAP genome datasets were downloaded from the Sequence Read Archive and GenBank. The final dataset contained 18 Type III and 16 Type I isolates and the K10 cattle strain MAP reference genome. Using a pan-genome approach, an updated global phylogeny for sheep MAP from de novo assemblies was produced. When rooted with the K10 cattle reference strain, two distinct clades representing the lineages were apparent. The Australian and New Zealand isolates formed a distinct sub-clade within the type I lineage, while the European type I isolates formed another less closely related group. Within the type III lineage, isolates appeared more genetically diverse and were from a greater number of continents. Querying of the pan-genome and verification using BLAST analysis revealed lineage-specific variations (n = 13) including genes responsible for metabolism and stress responses. The genetic differences identified may represent important epidemiological and virulence traits specific to sheep MAP. This knowledge will potentially contribute to improved vaccine development and control measures for these strains.

Evaluation of diagnostic tests for Johne's disease (Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis) in New Zealand dairy cows.

To quantify the sensitivity and specificity of a serum enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and fecal culture (FC) tests and to estimate the prevalence of Johne's disease (JD) in New Zealand dairy herds using Bayesian methods, 4 New Zealand dairy herds were tested simultaneously by ELISA and FC 5 times over 3 lactations. Test results were dichotomized. A Bayesian regression model was developed that considered test sensitivity as a function of the covariates parity, lactation stage, and prevalence of JD, which is expected to vary between herds. It was applied to a cross-sectional subset of the data and the full, repeated measures data set. Results were compared with frequentist pseudo gold standard results of the full data. Using the regression model, sensitivity of the ELISA was higher in older animals, but the sensitivity of the FC test showed no trend across age groups. Both FC and ELISA sensitivity were lower in late lactation. Estimated prevalence was lower and FC sensitivity higher when analyzing the complete data. The regression model enabled a more accurate diagnosis of JD to be made because it incorporated cow-specific information in the diagnosis, such as age and lactation stage. The model also enabled the incorporation of previous test results for an individual when diagnosing disease. The trends in results from the regression model support the current understanding of the disease process. The advantage of repeated testing of individuals in the assessment of test performance is discussed in the current study.

Modelling the economics of bovine viral diarrhoea virus control in pastoral dairy and beef cattle herds.

Bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) is a prevalent pathogen in the New Zealand cattle industries, yet few studies to date have evaluated the economics of BVDV in pastoral dairy and beef herds to help inform management decisions. To address this knowledge gap, we developed stochastic individual-based simulation models to represent the transmission dynamics of BVDV in typical spring-calving dairy and beef farms in New Zealand. The models conservatively estimated the direct losses due to a BVDV outbreak at NZ$ 22.22 and NZ$ 41.19 per mixed-age cow per year for a naïve dairy and beef farm, respectively, over a 5-year period. The greatest economic impacts for the dairy farm occurred when persistently infected replacement heifers joined the lactating cow group and caused transient infection of cows to drop in milk production, whereas the greatest impacts for the beef farm was through the loss of fattening stock for sale due to lowered pregnancy rates. Various combinations of diagnostic testing, vaccination, and biosecurity measures were then explored to evaluate the cost-efficiency of different strategies for controlling BVDV at the farm-level. Providing farmers with the estimates of economic impacts of BVDV in their herds may further encourage the uptake of control measures, but close collaboration with a veterinarian to determine the optimal strategy for their unique farm circumstances is still required.