Unmasking the Actual COVID-19 Case Count.

This report presents a novel approach to estimate the total number of COVID-19 cases in the United States, including undocumented infections, by combining the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's influenza-like illness surveillance data with aggregated prescription data. We estimated that the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases in the United States by 4 April 2020 was > 2.5 million.

Yellow taxis have fewer accidents than blue taxis because yellow is more visible than blue.

Is there a link between the color of a taxi and how many accidents it has? An analysis of 36 mo of detailed taxi, driver, and accident data (comprising millions of data points) from the largest taxi company in Singapore suggests that there is an explicit link. Yellow taxis had 6.1 fewer accidents per 1,000 taxis per month than blue taxis, a 9% reduction in accident probability. We rule out driver difference as an explanatory variable and empirically show that because yellow taxis are more noticeable than blue taxis-especially when in front of another vehicle, and in street lighting-other drivers can better avoid hitting them, directly reducing the accident rate. This finding can play a significant role when choosing colors for public transportation and may save lives as well as millions of dollars.

Assessing the impact of novelty and conformity on hesitancy towards COVID-19 vaccines using mRNA technology.

Background: Public hesitancy towards Covid-19 vaccines remains a major hurdle for mass vaccination programs today. While mRNA vaccines are more efficacious than conventional vaccines, it is unknown how much the novelty of this technology increases hesitancy. Methods: We quantify this "novelty penalty" in a large online experiment with 35,173 adults in nine countries. Subjects were randomly selected and assigned to one of two vaccine groups (conventional or mRNA), and one of five hypothetical inoculation rate groups (0%, 20%, 40%, 60%, or 80%). Subjects reported their willingness to accept the Covid-19 vaccine on a five-point Likert scale. Results: The novelty of the mRNA vaccine technology reduces the odds of a higher level of vaccine acceptance by 14.2% (odds ratio 0.858; p < 0.001). On the other hand, we find that social conformity reduces vaccine hesitancy. At a 0% inoculation rate, 31.7% report that they are "very likely" to get a mRNA vaccine while at a 20% inoculation rate, willingness jumps to 49.6%. Conclusions: The novelty of the mRNA vaccine increases hesitancy, but social conformity reduces it. A small group of early adopters can provide momentum for vaccination.

Evaluating the replicability of social science experiments in Nature and Science between 2010 and 2015.

Being able to replicate scientific findings is crucial for scientific progress1-15. We replicate 21 systematically selected experimental studies in the social sciences published in Nature and Science between 2010 and 201516-36. The replications follow analysis plans reviewed by the original authors and pre-registered prior to the replications. The replications are high powered, with sample sizes on average about five times higher than in the original studies. We find a significant effect in the same direction as the original study for 13 (62%) studies, and the effect size of the replications is on average about 50% of the original effect size. Replicability varies between 12 (57%) and 14 (67%) studies for complementary replicability indicators. Consistent with these results, the estimated true-positive rate is 67% in a Bayesian analysis. The relative effect size of true positives is estimated to be 71%, suggesting that both false positives and inflated effect sizes of true positives contribute to imperfect reproducibility. Furthermore, we find that peer beliefs of replicability are strongly related to replicability, suggesting that the research community could predict which results would replicate and that failures to replicate were not the result of chance alone.

Evaluating replicability of laboratory experiments in economics.

The replicability of some scientific findings has recently been called into question. To contribute data about replicability in economics, we replicated 18 studies published in the American Economic Review and the Quarterly Journal of Economics between 2011 and 2014. All of these replications followed predefined analysis plans that were made publicly available beforehand, and they all have a statistical power of at least 90% to detect the original effect size at the 5% significance level. We found a significant effect in the same direction as in the original study for 11 replications (61%); on average, the replicated effect size is 66% of the original. The replicability rate varies between 67% and 78% for four additional replicability indicators, including a prediction market measure of peer beliefs.

How is the boss's mood today? I want a raise.

Other people's incidental feelings can influence one's decision in a strategic manner. In a sequential game in which proposers moved first by dividing a given pot of cash (keeping 50% or 75% of the pot) and receivers responded by choosing the size of the pot (from 0 dollars to 1 dollar), proposers were more likely to make an unfair offer (i.e., to keep 75% of the pot) if they were told that receivers had watched a funny sitcom, rather than a movie clip portraying anger, in an unrelated study prior to the game playing. However, when proposers were told that receivers knew proposers had this affective information, the effect dissipated. In other words, a proposer expects a happy receiver to be more accommodating or cooperative than an angry receiver as long as the happy receiver does not realize that the proposer may be trying to benefit from the receiver's current incidental feelings.