Physical Activity Dynamics During a Digital Messaging Intervention Changed After the Pandemic Declaration.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic adversely impacted physical activity, but little is known about how contextual changes following the pandemic declaration impacted either the dynamics of people's physical activity or their responses to micro-interventions for promoting physical activity. PURPOSE: This paper explored the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the dynamics of physical activity responses to digital message interventions. METHODS: Insufficiently-active young adults (18-29 years; N = 22) were recruited from November 2019 to January 2020 and wore a Fitbit smartwatch for 6 months. They received 0-6 messages/day via smartphone app notifications, timed and selected at random from three content libraries (Move More, Sit Less, and Inspirational Quotes). System identification techniques from control systems engineering were used to identify person-specific dynamical models of physical activity in response to messages before and after the pandemic declaration on March 13, 2020. RESULTS: Daily step counts decreased significantly following the pandemic declaration on weekdays (Cohen's d = -1.40) but not on weekends (d = -0.26). The mean overall speed of the response describing physical activity (dominant pole magnitude) did not change significantly on either weekdays (d = -0.18) or weekends (d = -0.21). In contrast, there was limited rank-order consistency in specific features of intervention responses from before to after the pandemic declaration. CONCLUSIONS: Generalizing models of behavioral dynamics across dramatically different environmental contexts (and participants) may lead to flawed decision rules for just-in-time physical activity interventions. Periodic model-based adaptations to person-specific decision rules (i.e., continuous tuning interventions) for digital messages are recommended when contexts change.

Physical inactivity is recognized as one of the major risk factors for cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and many cancers. Most American adults fail to achieve recommended levels of physical activity. Interventions to promote physical activity in young adults are needed to reduce long-term chronic disease risk. The COVID-19 pandemic declaration abruptly changed many individuals' environments and lifestyles. These contextual changes adversely impacted physical activity levels but little is known about how these changes specifically impacted the dynamics of people's physical activity or responses to micro-interventions for promoting physical activity. Using data collected from Fitbit smartwatches before and after the pandemic declaration, we applied tools from control systems engineering to develop person-specific dynamic models of physical activity responses to messaging interventions, and investigated how physical activity dynamics changed from before to after the pandemic declaration. Step counts decreased significantly on weekdays. The average speed of participants' responses to intervention messages did not change significantly, but intervention response dynamics had limited consistency from before to after the pandemic declaration. In short, participants changed how they responded to interventions after the pandemic declaration but the magnitude and patterns of change varied across participants. Person-specific, adaptive interventions can be useful for promoting physical activity when behavioral systems are stimulated to reorganize by external factors.

Seasons, weather, and device-measured movement behaviors: a scoping review from 2006 to 2020.

BACKGROUND: This scoping review summarized research on (a) seasonal differences in physical activity and sedentary behavior, and (b) specific weather indices associated with those behaviors. METHODS: PubMed, CINAHL, and SPORTDiscus were searched to identify relevant studies. After identifying and screening 1459 articles, data were extracted from 110 articles with 118,189 participants from 30 countries (almost exclusively high-income countries) on five continents. RESULTS: Both physical activity volume and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) were greater in summer than winter. Sedentary behavior was greater in winter than either spring or summer, and insufficient evidence existed to draw conclusions about seasonal differences in light physical activity. Physical activity volume and MVPA duration were positively associated with both the photoperiod and temperature, and negatively associated with precipitation. Sedentary behavior was negatively associated with photoperiod and positively associated with precipitation. Insufficient evidence existed to draw conclusions about light physical activity and specific weather indices. Many weather indices have been neglected in this literature (e.g., air quality, barometric pressure, cloud coverage, humidity, snow, visibility, windchill). CONCLUSIONS: The natural environment can influence health by facilitating or inhibiting physical activity. Behavioral interventions should be sensitive to potential weather impacts. Extreme weather conditions brought about by climate change may compromise health-enhancing physical activity in the short term and, over longer periods of time, stimulate human migration in search of more suitable environmental niches.

Ergodic opinion dynamics over networks: learning influences from partial observations.

In this paper we address the problem of inferring direct influences in social networks from partial samples of a class of opinion dynamics. The interest is motivated by the study of several complex systems arising in social sciences, where a population of agents interacts according to a communication graph. These dynamics over networks often exhibit an oscillatory behavior, given the stochastic effects or the random nature of the local interactions process. Inspired by recent results on estimation of vector autoregressive processes, we propose a method to estimate the social network topology and the strength of the interconnections starting from partial observations of the interactions, when the whole sample path cannot be observed due to limitations of the observation process. Besides the design of the method, our main contributions include a rigorous proof of the convergence of the proposed estimators and the evaluation of the performance in terms of complexity and number of sample. Extensive simulations on randomly generated networks show the effectiveness of the proposed technique.

Identification of switched autoregressive exogenous systems from large noisy datasets.

The article introduces novel methodologies for the identification of coefficients of switching autoregressive moving average with exogenous input systems and switched autoregressive exogenous linear models. We consider cases where system's outputs are contaminated by possibly large values of noise for both cases of measurement noise and process noise. It is assumed that only partial information on the probability distribution of the noise is available. Given input-output data, we aim at identifying switched system coefficients and parameters of the distribution of the noise, which are compatible with the collected data. We demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed approach with several academic examples. The method is shown to be effective in the situations where a large number of measurements is available; cases in which previous approaches based on polynomial or mixed-integer optimization cannot he applied due to very large computational burden.

Personalized models of physical activity responses to text message micro-interventions: A proof-of-concept application of control systems engineering methods.

OBJECTIVES: The conceptual models underlying physical activity interventions have been based largely on differences between more and less active people. Yet physical activity is a dynamic behavior, and such models are not sensitive to factors that regulate behavior at a momentary level or how people respond to individual attempts at intervening. We demonstrate how a control systems engineering approach can be applied to develop personalized models of behavioral responses to an intensive text message-based intervention. DESIGN & METHOD: To establish proof-of-concept for this approach, 10 adults wore activity monitors for 16 weeks and received five text messages daily at random times. Message content was randomly selected from three types of messages designed to target (1) social-cognitive processes associated with increasing physical activity, (2) social-cognitive processes associated with reducing sedentary behavior, or (3) general facts unrelated to either physical activity or sedentary behavior. A dynamical systems model was estimated for each participant to examine the magnitude and timing of responses to each type of text message. RESULTS: Models revealed heterogeneous responses to different message types that varied between people and between weekdays and weekends. CONCLUSIONS: This proof-of-concept demonstration suggests that parameters from this model can be used to develop personalized algorithms for intervention delivery. More generally, these results demonstrate the potential utility of control systems engineering models for optimizing physical activity interventions.

Motivational Message Framing Effects on Physical Activity Dynamics in a Digital Messaging Intervention: Secondary Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Digital smartphone messaging can be used to promote physical activity to large populations with limited cost. It is not clear which psychological constructs should be targeted by digital messages to promote physical activity. This gap presents a challenge for developing optimal content for digital messaging interventions. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to compare affectively framed and social cognitively framed messages on subsequent changes in physical activity using dynamical modeling techniques. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of data collected from a digital messaging intervention in insufficiently active young adults (18-29 years) recruited between April 2019 and July 2020 who wore a Fitbit smartwatch for 6 months. Participants received 0 to 6 messages at random per day across the intervention period. Messages were drawn from 3 content libraries: affectively framed, social cognitively framed, or inspirational quotes. Person-specific dynamical models were identified, and model features of impulse response and cumulative step response were extracted for comparison. Two-way repeated-measures ANOVAs evaluated the main effects and interaction of message type and day type on model features. This early-phase work with novel dynamic features may have been underpowered to detect differences between message types so results were interpreted descriptively. RESULTS: Messages (n=20,689) were paired with valid physical activity monitoring data from 45 participants for analysis. Received messages were distributed as 40% affective (8299/20,689 messages), 39% social-cognitive (8187/20,689 messages), and 20% inspirational quotes (4219/20,689 messages). There were no statistically significant main effects for message type when evaluating the steady state of step responses. Participants demonstrated heterogeneity in intervention response: some had their strongest responses to affectively framed messages, some had their strongest responses to social cognitively framed messages, and some had their strongest responses to the inspirational quote messages. CONCLUSIONS: No single type of digital message content universally promotes physical activity. Future work should evaluate the effects of multiple message types so that content can be continuously tuned based on person-specific responses to each message type.

Person-specific dose-finding for a digital messaging intervention to promote physical activity.

OBJECTIVE: Digital messaging is an established method for promoting physical activity. Systematic approaches for dose-finding have not been widely used in behavioral intervention development. We apply system identification tools from control systems engineering to estimate dynamical models and inform decision rules for digital messaging intervention to promote physical activity. METHOD: Insufficiently active emerging and young adults (n = 45) wore an activity monitor that recorded minute-level step counts and heart rate and received 0-6 digital messages daily on their smartphone for 6 months. Messages were drawn from 3 content libraries (move more, sit less, inspirational quotes). Location recordings via location services in the user's smartphone were used to lookup weather indices at the time and place of message delivery. Following system identification, responses to each message type were simulated under different conditions. Response features were extracted to summarize dynamic processes. RESULTS: A generic model based on composite data was conservative and did not capture the heterogeneous responses evident in person-specific models. No messages were uniformly ineffective but responses to specific message content in different contexts varied between people. Exterior temperature at the time of message receipt moderated the size of some message effects. CONCLUSIONS: A generic model of message effects on physical activity can provide the initial evidence for context-sensitive decision rules in a just-in-time adaptive intervention, but it is likely to be error-prone and inefficient. As individual data accumulates, person-specific models should be estimated to optimize treatment and evolve as people are exposed to new environments and accumulate new experiences. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).