Early cardiovascular structural and functional abnormalities as a guide to future morbid events.

AIMS: Our aim was to evaluate the predictive value of a battery of 10 non-invasive tests of cardiovascular structural and functional health on the future risk of cardiovascular morbid events. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 1900 asymptomatic adults concerned about their risk for cardiovascular disease underwent non-invasive assessment with 10 tests of vascular and cardiac structure and function. A disease score (DS) was calculated for each individual based on these 10 tests. Follow-up (mean 9.2 years) for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality was available for 1442 individuals (mean age 53.2 years, 48.2% women). Those in the lowest DS tertile (0-2) experienced 0.16 cardiovascular events per 100 patient-years (PY), those in the middle tertile (3-5) experienced 0.86 events per 100 PY, and those in the highest tertile (6+) experienced 1.3 events per 100 PY (p < .001). Sensitivity analysis, assuming a neutral effect of DS on projected events in subjects not followed, did not alter statistical significance. Risk assessment using the Framingham risk score (FRS) also predicted morbid events but the two methods differed in identifying individuals at high risk. The net reclassification index was improved by 0.11 (p = 0.01) when DS was added to FRS. CONCLUSIONS: Assessing the biological disease process in the arteries and heart of asymptomatic adults provides a guide to the risk of a future cardiovascular morbid event. Larger and longer studies are needed to determine whether risk factor algorithms, the severity of the biological process or some combination is the optimal method for identifying individuals in need of intervention to delay morbid events.

Screening for early detection of cardiovascular disease in asymptomatic individuals.

OBJECTIVE: Primary prevention of cardiovascular disease has been aimed at risk factor identification and treatment without efforts to document early cardiovascular disease. The objective of the current study is to screen individuals with vascular and cardiac tests aimed at identifying early abnormalities likely to progress and to measure risk contributors susceptible to therapy. METHODS: A center was established for comprehensive screening of an asymptomatic population with 10 tests designed to detect early vascular and cardiac abnormalities and blood tests to identify potential targets for risk contributor intervention. The first 396 individuals screened in the center have been analyzed. RESULTS: Using a scoring system from 0 (no disease) to 20 (advanced disease), 49% of the population exhibited scores of > or =5 and 39% exhibited scores of > or =6. These scores appear indicative of early disease mandating initiation of or change in medical therapy, which was recommended to the individuals screened and to their primary care physicians. CONCLUSION: The screening tests utilized are effective in uncovering unsuspected early cardiovascular disease in which targeted treatment could be effective in reducing the incidence of cardiovascular events in susceptible individuals. Documentation of the sensitivity and specificity of this approach requires longitudinal study.

Vascular and cardiac functional and structural screening to identify risk of future morbid events: preliminary observations.

Risk factors have served to identify patients in need of antihypertensive and lipid-lowering therapy. Because of their limited sensitivity and specificity, we developed a screening program using noninvasive testing and a scoring system aimed at detecting functional and structural cardiovascular abnormalities in asymptomatic individuals. Ten cardiovascular tests were performed in 1 hour by a single technologist. Tests were scored as normal (0), borderline abnormal (1), or abnormal (2). Total disease score (DS) could range from 0 (all tests normal) to 20 (all tests abnormal). Scores of 0-2 were classified as normal, 3-5 as early disease, and 6+ as advanced disease. Morbid events during follow-up of 6 months to 8 years were determined from mailed questionnaires. Framingham risk scores (FRS) were calculated using published algorithms. Thirty-five morbid events (1 of 169 in the "normal" group, 8 of 214 in the "early disease" group, and 26 of 230 in the "advanced disease" group) occurred during the follow-up period among the 613 individuals who completed the questionnaire. Risk for morbid events was highly significantly different between the Kaplan-Meier curves based on disease detection (log rank 21.75, P ≤ .0001). FRS were significantly different but less discriminating, with five morbid events in the 227 subjects with FRS <10, eight in 162 with FRS 10-13, and 22 of 227 with FRS >13 (log rank 9.80, P = .0074). The area under receiver operating characteristic curve for DS (0.74) surpassed that of FRS (0.66) and was not improved when both were included in the model. Neither blood pressure levels nor low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels provided adequate discrimination. Identifying early disease in asymptomatic individuals provides a better guide to the need for preventive therapy than traditional risk factor assessment.