Destructive tension: mathematics versus experience--the progress and control of the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain.

The 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain was characterised by control using both traditional and novel methods, some resulting from conclusions of mathematical models. Seven days before the implementation of the novel controversial automatic pre-emptive culling of all susceptible livestock on premises adjacent to infected premises (the 'contiguous cull'), the spread of infection had already been controlled by a combination of the traditional stamping out policy with a national movement ban on livestock. A second controversial novel policy requiring the slaughter of sheep within 3 km of premises on which disease had been confirmed (the 3-km cull) also commenced after the peak of infection spread, was untargeted and took several weeks to complete; serosurveillance of culled sheep detected infection in only one flock, suggesting that cryptic infection of sheep was not propagating the epidemic. Extensive post-epidemic serological surveillance of sheep found only a small number of seropositive animals in a very few flocks, suggesting that foot and mouth disease may self-limit in extensive sheep populations. The epidemic was finally brought to an end following the introduction of enhanced agricultural movement restrictions and biosecurity measures. A welfare culling scheme of unaffected animals was required to support the prolonged national livestock movement ban. The models that supported the contiguous culling policy were severely flawed, being based on data from dissimilar epidemics; used inaccurate background population data, and contained highly improbable biological assumptions about the temporal and quantitative parameters of infection and virus emission in infected herds and flocks.

Risk associated with animals moved from herds infected with brucellosis in Northern Ireland.

The movement of cattle from herds infected with Brucella abortus was investigated in order to assess the control measures for eradication of brucellosis from the cattle population of Northern Ireland. Using recorded cattle movement data, a historical cohort study was designed and carried out to quantify the risk of seropositivity in bovine animals moved from herds infected with brucellosis. The study found that 3.1% of animals, moved in the 6-month period prior to disclosure of infection in the source herd and subsequently tested, were interpreted as seropositive in their destination herds. The odds of seropositivity were approximately 19 (95% confidence interval: 7.8-46.4) times higher in this cohort compared with animals from herds with no history of infection. A multivariate logistic regression model was constructed to examine factors influencing the risk of seropositivity in the exposed cohort of animals, identifying maternal status (whether the dam had been a brucellosis reactor) and age at leaving the infected herd as the main risk factors.

The Northern Ireland programme for the control and eradication of Mycobacterium bovis.

Bovine tuberculosis is endemic in Northern Ireland and a comprehensive eradication scheme has been in operation since 1959. The current programme involves annual testing, extensive computerized tracing, short-interval testing of herds contiguous to outbreaks and compulsory slaughter of positive cattle. Despite initial reductions in disease prevalence, eradication has proved elusive and potential explanatory factors include high cattle density and potential for between-herd contact, the impact of exotic diseases on resource priorities, and significant levels of bovine tuberculosis in a wildlife reservoir, the European badger (Meles meles). Both the role of the infected bovine and that of the badger in spreading disease have to be addressed to ensure progress towards eradication. Current measures are described and future options for enhancing the programme are outlined.

Age resistance to Theileria parva bovis infection in calves.

Data collected in the Zimbabwean province of Mashonaland-West, in the period 1980-1988, showed that mortality in calves owing to Theileria parva bovis infection (January disease) was significantly lower in animals younger than 7 months than in older cattle. Groups of seven Holstein-Friesian calves from non-immune dams aged approximately 1, 4, 7, 10 and 13 months were infected with a Theileria parva bovis tick-derived stabilate. The dose chosen was lethal for 40% of the calves in the trial. Mortality was highest in the 4-month age group. The reactions in the 7-, 10- and 13-month age groups became progressively milder. The reactions in the 1-month old calves were the least marked, being very mild. The age-related resistance in the youngest calves, as can be concluded from our results, is only of short duration and cannot explain the lower incidence of January disease observed in calves in the field.

Effectiveness of a therapeutic drug monitoring service as an aid to the control of canine seizures.

The results presented were derived from an anticonvulsant monitoring service, provided for two years to practising veterinary surgeons, in which samples of serum were taken from dogs treated with either primidone or phenobarbitone. Of the 19 patients assessed, 13 were controlled after the recommended changes in dose had been made. Of the six patients not completely controlled after changes in dose, four had a much lower incidence of seizures but two did not respond to treatment in spite of having high serum phenobarbitone levels. There were large variations between the doses of anticonvulsant drugs required to reach therapeutic serum levels; these variations underlined the value of routine monitoring for improving the control of canine seizures.

Relationship of speed of slaughter on infected premises and intensity of culling of other premises to the rate of spread of the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain, 2001.

During the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in the UK in 2001, two major control policies were the rapid identification of cases and the culling of animals on infected premises and on dangerous contact premises. Dangerous contact premises were divided into two groups, premises contiguous to an infected premises and non-contiguous premises. In England, the largest numbers of geographically clustered infected premises were in Cumbria, the South West (Somerset, Devon and Cornwall) and the Settle/Clitheroe area straddling the Yorkshire-Lancashire border. In each of these clusters, the rate of spread of the disease, the average time from the first lesion to slaughter on infected premises, and the intensity of culling of contiguous premises and non-contiguous premises were calculated for seven-day periods. Linear regression analysis was used to look for relationships between these factors and the rate of spread of the disease. The average time from the first lesion to slaughter had a statistically significant relationship in two of the three clusters and the intensity of culling of non-contiguous premises had a significant relationship in one. The intensity of culling of contiguous premises had no significant relationship in any of the three clusters.

Risk of foot-and-mouth disease associated with proximity in space and time to infected premises and the implications for control policy during the 2001 epidemic in Cumbria.

An analysis was made that calculated the risk of disease for premises in the most heavily affected parts of the county of Cumbria during the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in the UK in 2001. In over half the cases the occurrence of the disease was not directly attributable to a recently infected premises being located within 1.5 km. Premises more than 1.5 km from recently infected premises faced sufficiently high infection risks that culling within a 1.5 km radius of the infected premises alone could not have prevented the progress of the epidemic. A comparison of the final outcome in two areas of the county, south Penrith and north Cumbria, indicated that focusing on controlling the potential spread of the disease over short distances by culling premises contiguous to infected premises, while the disease continued to spread over longer distances, may have resulted in excessive numbers of premises being culled. Even though the contiguous cull in south Penrith appeared to have resulted in a smaller proportion of premises becoming infected, the overall proportion of premises culled was considerably greater than in north Cumbria, where, because of staff and resource limitations, a smaller proportion of premises contiguous to infected premises was culled.

Evaluation of the application of veterinary judgement in the pre-emptive cull of contiguous premises during the epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease in Cumbria in 2001.

This paper presents a detailed analysis of the application of contiguous culling in Cumbria between May 1 and September 30, during the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in 2001. The analysis shows that the application of veterinary risk assessment and judgement identified and removed groups of susceptible stock which were at risk of direct transmission of infection and avoided infected animals being left that might have spread the disease. When compared with an automatic contiguous cull, fewer culls were made and some of these were reduced in scale, providing economies in the use of resources. The data suggest that farms contiguous to an infected premises faced a 5 per cent risk of infection by direct transmission and a 12 per cent risk of infection by indirect transmission.

Condition scoring scheme for small east African goats in Zimbabwe.

A body condition scoring for Small East African type goats in Zimbabwe is described. This measure is less affected by confounding variables than is body weight as an estimate of animal's condition and nutritional state. Furthermore, it requires no special equipment. Using this scheme it is shown that condition score is significantly correlated with a parametric measure of condition (r = 0.5, P less than 0.01) in adult females and that changes in condition score are significantly correlated to percentage changes in body weight (rs = 0.5, P less than 0.01) for all ages. A change of condition score of 1 represents on average a 12% change in body weight.

Reproduction in female cattle in a communal farming area of Zimbabwe.

Cattle in a communal farming area of Zimbabwe were identified and examined in the late dry and mid wet season of 1985/86. Ovarian activity rates were 17.9% and 38.6% in the dry and wet season respectively. Pregnancy rates were 16.1% and 24.6% respectively. A major limitation to reproduction was the percentage of anoestrous females. There was no evidence of a seasonal calving pattern. Median body condition score was 2.0 in the dry season and 1.5 in the wet season. Adult females of body condition score 2.5 and above had ovarian activity rates of 41.9% and pregnancy rates of 41.9 per cent. Those with a body condition score below 2.5 had rates of 26.8% and 16.4% respectively. Serum progesterone levels in pregnant animals were positively related to body condition score, with some animals having progesterone levels similar to non-pregnant animals. Metabolic profiles suggested that the major limiting nutrient in both seasons was nitrogen, although other micronutrients might also be involved in low reproductive rates.

Bovine babesiosis in dual purpose calves in the state of Yucatan, Mexico.

Thirty-eight dual purpose calves in the 3 agricultural zones of the state of Yucatan, Mexico were monitored for antibodies to Babesia bovis and B. bigemina from close to birth up to 12 months of age. The results showed that infection with both parasites is widespread throughout the 3 zones. Many of the animals had produced antibody to both parasites by 6 months of age indicating high transmission rates resulting in enzootic stability for both parasites. Any changes to agricultural practices in the state that could affect disease stability through either reduction in numbers of tick vectors or the introduction of susceptible adults will have to be accompanied with measures such as vaccination to limit losses due to clinical babesiosis.