Validation of the 18-gene classifier as a prognostic biomarker of distant metastasis in breast cancer.

We validated an 18-gene classifier (GC) initially developed to predict local/regional recurrence after mastectomy in estimating distant metastasis risk. The 18-gene scoring algorithm defines scores as: <21, low risk; ≥21, high risk. Six hundred eighty-three patients with primary operable breast cancer and fresh frozen tumor tissues available were included. The primary outcome was the 5-year probability of freedom from distant metastasis (DMFP). Two external datasets were used to test the predictive accuracy of 18-GC. The 5-year rates of DMFP for patients classified as low-risk (n = 146, 21.7%) and high-risk (n = 537, 78.6%) were 96.2% (95% CI, 91.1%-98.8%) and 80.9% (74.6%-81.9%), respectively (median follow-up interval, 71.8 months). The 5-year rates of DMFP of the low-risk group in stage I (n = 62, 35.6%), stage II (n = 66, 20.1%), and stage III (n = 18, 10.3%) were 100%, 94.2% (78.5%-98.5%), and 90.9% (50.8%-98.7%), respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that 18-GC is an independent prognostic factor of distant metastasis (adjusted hazard ratio, 5.1; 95% CI, 1.8-14.1; p = 0.0017) for scores of ≥21. External validation showed that the 5-year rate of DMFP in the low- and high-risk patients was 94.1% (82.9%-100%) and 80.3% (70.7%-89.9%, p = 0.06) in a Singapore dataset, and 89.5% (81.9%-94.1%) and 73.6% (67.2%-79.0%, p = 0.0039) in the GEO-GSE20685 dataset, respectively. In conclusion, 18-GC is a viable prognostic biomarker for breast cancer to estimate distant metastasis risk.

An Eighteen-Gene Classifier Predicts Locoregional Recurrence in Post-Mastectomy Breast Cancer Patients.

We previously identified 34 genes of interest (GOI) in 2006 to aid the oncologists to determine whether post-mastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT) is indicated for certain patients with breast cancer. At this time, an independent cohort of 135 patients having DNA microarray study available from the primary tumor tissue samples was chosen. Inclusion criteria were 1) mastectomy as the first treatment, 2) pathology stages I-III, 3) any locoregional recurrence (LRR) and 4) no PMRT. After inter-platform data integration of Affymetrix U95 and U133 Plus 2.0 arrays and quantile normalization, in this paper we used 18 of 34 GOI to divide the mastectomy patients into high and low risk groups. The 5-year rate of freedom from LRR in the high-risk group was 30%. In contrast, in the low-risk group it was 99% (p < 0.0001). Multivariate analysis revealed that the 18-gene classifier independently predicts rates of LRR regardless of nodal status or cancer subtype.