Understanding Household Dynamics From the Ground Up: A Longitudinal Study From a Rural South African Setting.

Investigations into household structure in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) provide important insight into how families manage domestic life in response to resource allocation and caregiving needs during periods of rapid sociopolitical and health-related challenges. Recent evidence on household structure in many LMICs contrasts with long-standing viewpoints of worldwide convergence to a Western nuclearized household model. Here, we adopt a household-centered theoretical and methodological framework to investigate longitudinal patterns and dynamics of household structure in a rural South African setting during a period of high AIDS-related mortality and socioeconomic change. Data come from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System (2003-2015). Using latent transition models, we derived six distinct household types by examining conditional interdependency between household heads' characteristics, members' age composition, and migration status. More than half of households were characterized by their complex and multigenerational profiles, with considerable within-typology variation in household size and dependency structure. Transition analyses showed stability of household types under female headship, while higher proportions of nuclearized household types dissolved over time. Household dissolution was closely linked to prior mortality experiences-particularly, following death of a male head. Our findings highlight the need to better conceptualize and contextualize household changes across populations and over time.

Gender inequities in women's access to maternal health care utilisation in Zambia: a qualitative analysis.

BACKGROUND: The role of gender inequities in women's ability to access maternal health care has mainly been analysed from either women's or men's perspective only. In this article, we explore the role of gender inequities in maternal health care utilisation from both men's and women's perspectives. METHODS: Thirty-six interviews were conducted with reproductive age women (n = 24), and men whose wives/partners gave birth within the last three years prior to our study in Zambia (n = 12). Our study sought to improve understanding of the normative environment in which women and men make decisions on maternal health care utilisation in Zambia. RESULTS: We found that men and women had different expectations regarding their gender roles in maternal health care utilisation, which created inequities reinforced by societal norms and traditions. Men make most household decisions including those related to reproductive health and they often have the major say in access to maternal health services despite not having holistic maternal health information which creates challenges in maternal health care utilisation. CONCLUSION: The study highlights the need for maternal health care utilisation decisions to be made by both men and women and that men should be fully involved in maternal health care from pregnancy until after child birth. Further, there is urgent need for concerted and sustained efforts to change traditional norms that reinforce these inequities and affect maternal health care utilisation if Zambia is to meet Sustainable Development Goal-3.1.

Twin epidemics: the effects of HIV and systolic blood pressure on mortality risk in rural South Africa, 2010-2019.

BACKGROUND: Sub-Saharan African settings are experiencing dual epidemics of HIV and hypertension. We investigate effects of each condition on mortality and examine whether HIV and hypertension interact in determining mortality. METHODS: Data come from the 2010 Ha Nakekela population-based survey of individuals ages 40 and older (1,802 women; 1,107 men) nested in the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System in rural South Africa, which provides mortality follow-up from population surveillance until mid-2019. Using discrete-time event history models stratified by sex, we assessed differential mortality risks according to baseline measures of HIV infection, HIV-1 RNA viral load, and systolic blood pressure. RESULTS: During the 8-year follow-up period, mortality was high (477 deaths). Survey weighted estimates are that 37% of men (mortality rate 987.53/100,000, 95% CI: 986.26 to 988.79) and 25% of women (mortality rate 937.28/100,000, 95% CI: 899.7 to 974.88) died. Over a quarter of participants were living with HIV (PLWH) at baseline, over 50% of whom had unsuppressed viral loads. The share of the population with a systolic blood pressure of 140mm Hg or higher increased from 24% at ages 40-59 to 50% at ages 75-plus and was generally higher for those not living with HIV compared to PLWH. Men and women with unsuppressed viral load had elevated mortality risks (men: adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 3.23, 95% CI: 2.21 to 4.71, women: aOR 2.05, 95% CI: 1.27 to 3.30). There was a weak, non-linear relationship between systolic blood pressure and higher mortality risk. We found no significant interaction between systolic blood pressure and HIV status for either men or women (p>0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that HIV and elevated blood pressure are acting as separate, non-interacting epidemics affecting high proportions of the older adult population. PLWH with unsuppressed viral load were at higher mortality risk compared to those uninfected. Systolic blood pressure was a mortality risk factor independent of HIV status. As antiretroviral therapy becomes more widespread, further longitudinal follow-up is needed to understand how the dynamics of increased longevity and multimorbidity among people living with both HIV and high blood pressure, as well as the emergence of COVID-19, may alter these patterns.

Clusters of HIV Risk and Protective Sexual Behaviors in Agincourt, Rural South Africa: Findings from the Ha Nakekela Population-Based Study of Ages 15 and Older.

Understanding how sexual behaviors cluster in distinct population subgroups along the life course is critical for effective targeting and tailoring of HIV prevention messaging and intervention activities. We examined interrelatedness of sexual behaviors and variation between men and women across a wide age range in a rural South African setting with a high HIV burden. Data come from the Ha Nakekela population-based survey of people aged 15-85-plus drawn from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System. We used latent class analysis of six sexual behavior indicators to identify distinct subgroup sexual behavior clusters. We then examined associations between class membership and sociodemographic and other behavioral risk factors and assessed the accuracy of a reduced set of sexual behavior indicators to classify individuals into latent classes. We identified three sexual behavior classes: (1) single with consistent protective behaviors; (2) risky behaviors; and (3) in union with lack of protective behaviors. Patterns of sexual behaviors varied by gender. Class membership was also associated with age, HIV status, nationality, and alcohol use. With only two sexual behavior indicators (union status and multiple sexual partners), individuals were accurately assigned to their most likely predicted class. There were distinct multidimensional sexual behavior clusters in population subgroups that varied by sex, age, and HIV status. In this population, only two brief questions were needed to classify individuals into risk classes. Replication in other situations is needed to confirm these findings.

Breastfeeding, HIV exposure, childhood obesity, and prehypertension: A South African cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence on the association between breastfeeding and later childhood obesity and blood pressure (BP) is inconsistent, especially in HIV-prevalent areas where, until recently, HIV-infected women were discouraged from breastfeeding, but obesity is increasingly prevalent. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The Siyakhula cohort (2012-2014), a population-based prospective cohort study, collected data over 3 visits on HIV-negative children ages 7 to 11 years in rural South Africa. We used weight (body mass index [BMI]), fat, and BP as outcome variables and incorporated early life (including mother's age at delivery and HIV status) and current life factors (including maternal education and current BMI). Our primary exposure was breastfeeding duration. We dichotomized 3 outcome measures using pre-established thresholds for clinical interpretability: (1) overfat: ≥85th percentile of body fat; (2) overweight: >1 SD BMI z score; and (3) prehypertension: ≥90th percentile for systolic BP (SBP) or diastolic BP (DBP). We modelled each outcome using multivariable logistic regression, including stopping breastfeeding, then early life, and finally current life factors. Of 1,536 children (mean age = 9.3 years; 872 girls; 664 boys), 7% were overfat, 13.2% overweight, and 9.1% prehypertensive. Over half (60%) of the mothers reported continued breastfeeding for 12+ months. In multivariable analyses, continued breastfeeding between 6 and 11 months was associated with approximately halved odds of both being overfat (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 0.43, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.21-0.91, P = 0.027) and overweight (aOR = 0.46, CI 0.26-0.82, P = 0.0083), but the association with prehypertension did not reach statistical significance (aOR = 0.72, CI 0.38-1.37, P = 0.32). Children with a mother who was currently obese were 5 times more likely (aOR = 5.02, CI 2.47-10.20, P < 0.001) to be overfat and over 4 times more likely to be overweight (aOR = 4.33, CI 2.65-7.09, P < 0.001) than children with normal weight mothers. Differences between HIV-exposed and unexposed children on any of the outcomes were minimal and not significant. The main study limitation was that duration of breastfeeding was based on maternal recall. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first study examining and quantifying the association between breastfeeding and childhood obesity in an African setting with high HIV prevalence. We observed that breastfeeding was independently associated with reduced childhood obesity for both HIV-exposed and unexposed children, suggesting that promoting optimal nutrition throughout the life course, starting with continued breastfeeding, may be critical to tackling the growing obesity epidemic. In the era of widespread effective antiretroviral treatment for HIV-infected women for life, these data further support the recommendation of breastfeeding for all women.

Cognitive function and cardiometabolic disease risk factors in rural South Africa: baseline evidence from the HAALSI study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence on cognitive function in older South Africans is limited, with few population-based studies. We aimed to estimate baseline associations between cognitive function and cardiometabolic disease risk factors in rural South Africa. METHODS: We use baseline data from "Health and Aging in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa" (HAALSI), a population-based study of adults aged 40 and above in rural South Africa in 2015. Cognitive function was measured using measures of time orientation, immediate and delayed recall, and numeracy adapted from the Health and Retirement Study cognitive battery (overall total cognitive score range 0-26). We used multiple linear regression to estimate associations between cardiometabolic risk factors (including BMI, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, history of stroke, alcohol frequency, and smoking status) and the overall cognitive function score, adjusted for potential confounders. RESULTS: In multivariable-adjusted analyses (n = 3018; male = 1520; female = 1498; median age 59 (interquartile range 50-67)), cardiometabolic risk factors associated with lower cognitive function scores included: diabetes (b = - 1.11 [95% confidence interval: - 2.01, - 0.20] for controlled diabetes vs. no diabetes); underweight BMI (b = - 0.87 [CI: - 1.48, - 0.26] vs. normal BMI); and current and past smoking history compared to never smokers. Factors associated with higher cognitive function scores included: obese BMI (b = 0.74 [CI: 0.39, 1.10] vs. normal BMI); and controlled hypertension (b = 0.53 [CI: 0.11, 0.96] vs. normotensive). CONCLUSIONS: We provide an important baseline from rural South Africa on the associations between cardiometabolic disease risk factors and cognitive function in an older, rural South African population using standardized clinical measurements and cut-offs and widely used cognitive assessments. Future studies are needed to clarify temporal associations as well as patterns between the onset and duration of cardiometabolic conditions and cognitive function. As the South African population ages, effective management of cardiometabolic risk factors may be key to lasting cognitive health.

Sexual behavior and HIV risk across the life course in rural South Africa: trends and comparisons.

There is limited information about sexual behavior among older Africans, which is problematic given high HIV rates among older adults. We use a population-based survey among people aged 15-80+ to examine the prevalence of sexual risk and protective behaviors in the context of a severe HIV epidemic. We focus on variation across the life course, gender and HIV serostatus to compare the similarities and differences of young, middle aged, and older adults. Younger adults continue to be at risk of HIV, with potential partners being more likely to have been diagnosed with an STI and more likely to have HIV, partner change is high, and condom use is low. Middle aged and older adults engage in sexual behavior that makes them vulnerable at older ages, including extramarital sex, low condom use, and cross-generational sex with people in age groups with the highest rates of HIV. We find insignificant differences between HIV positive and negative adults' reports of recent sexual activity. This study provides new information on sexual behavior and HIV risk across the life course in rural South Africa to inform HIV prevention and treatment programing.

Prevalence and risk factors for child mental disorders in a population-based cohort of HIV-exposed and unexposed African children aged 7-11 years.

Despite being home to a large population of vulnerable children there is a dearth of population-based evidence on childhood mental disorders in sub-Saharan Africa. Parent and child mental health are rarely measured concurrently, despite potential for confounding with other risk factors, including parental HIV. Using the parent-report Child Behaviour Checklist (CBCL) we assessed children's mental health in a population-based cohort of 1536 HIV-negative children (31% HIV-exposed, 18% HIV-affected, 51% HIV-unexposed) aged 7-11 years. CBCL was scored using CBCL Rating-to-Score software. A binary indicator was determined using the clinical threshold ≥ 65. We modelled mental disorders using logistic regression, including covariates associated with the mother, child, household, and parenting. Structural equation modelling techniques also derived continuous latent variables representing the underlying mental health and parent-relationship constructs. Prevalence of conduct disorders (11.8%) was high, regardless of HIV exposure, while HIV-affected children had increased odds of affective disorders. Maternal depression increased odds of externalising disorders; maternal anxiety was associated with affective and anxiety disorders. Mother-child relationship dysfunction increased odds of all disorders, including: affective [aOR = 5.1 (2.6-9.9)]; oppositional [aOR = 7.9 (4.0-15.5)]; conduct [aOR = 4.3 (2.6-7.2)] disorders. Food insecurity and male gender increased odds of somatic disorders; breastfeeding halved odds of conduct disorders. In the latent model, associations were substantially stronger for the mother-child relationship and externalising disorders (Oppositional 0.464 p < 0.001; Conduct 0.474 p = <0.001). Conduct disorders were high for all children regardless of HIV exposure. The mother-child relationship was strongly related to all child disorders, suggesting potential for concurrent interventions targeting child behaviours and the parent-child or mother-child relationship.

Rural-urban variations in age at menarche, adult height, leg-length and abdominal adiposity in black South African women in transitioning South Africa.

BACKGROUND: The pre-pubertal socioeconomic environment may be an important determinant of age at menarche, adult height, body proportions and adiposity: traits closely linked to adolescent and adult health. AIMS: This study explored differences in age at menarche, adult height, relative leg-length and waist circumference between rural and urban black South African young adult women, who are at different stages of the nutrition and epidemiologic transitions. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: We compared 18-23 year-old black South African women, 482 urban-dwelling from Soweto and 509 from the rural Mpumalanga province. Age at menarche, obstetric history and household socio-demographic and economic information were recorded using interview-administered questionnaires. Height, sitting-height, hip and waist circumference were measured using standardised techniques. RESULTS: Urban and rural black South African women differed in their age at menarche (at ages 12.7 and 14.5 years, respectively). In urban women, a one-year increase in age at menarche was associated with a 0.65 cm and 0.16% increase in height and relative leg-length ratio, respectively. In both settings, earlier age at menarche and shorter relative leg-length were independently associated with an increase in waist circumference. CONCLUSIONS: In black South African women, the earlier onset of puberty, and consequently an earlier growth cessation process, may lead to central fat mass accumulation in adulthood.

Progression of the epidemiological transition in a rural South African setting: findings from population surveillance in Agincourt, 1993-2013.

BACKGROUND: Virtually all low- and middle-income countries are undergoing an epidemiological transition whose progression is more varied than experienced in high-income countries. Observed changes in mortality and disease patterns reveal that the transition in most low- and middle-income countries is characterized by reversals, partial changes and the simultaneous occurrence of different types of diseases of varying magnitude. Localized characterization of this shifting burden, frequently lacking, is essential to guide decentralised health and social systems on the effective targeting of limited resources. Based on a rigorous compilation of mortality data over two decades, this paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the epidemiological transition in a rural South African population. METHODS: We estimate overall and cause-specific hazards of death as functions of sex, age and time period from mortality data from the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System and conduct statistical tests of changes and differentials to assess the progression of the epidemiological transition over the period 1993-2013. RESULTS: From the early 1990s until 2007 the population experienced a reversal in its epidemiological transition, driven mostly by increased HIV/AIDS and TB related mortality. In recent years, the transition is following a positive trajectory as a result of declining HIV/AIDS and TB related mortality. However, in most age groups the cause of death distribution is yet to reach the levels it occupied in the early 1990s. The transition is also characterized by persistent gender differences with more rapid positive progression in females than males. CONCLUSIONS: This typical rural South African population is experiencing a protracted epidemiological transition. The intersection and interaction of HIV/AIDS and antiretroviral treatment, non-communicable disease risk factors and complex social and behavioral changes will impact on continued progress in reducing preventable mortality and improving health across the life course. Integrated healthcare planning and program delivery is required to improve access and adherence for HIV and non-communicable disease treatment. These findings from a local, rural setting over an extended period contribute to the evidence needed to inform further refinement and advancement of epidemiological transition theory.

Exclusive Breastfeeding and Cognition, Executive Function, and Behavioural Disorders in Primary School-Aged Children in Rural South Africa: A Cohort Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) is associated with early child health; its longer-term benefits for child development remain inconclusive. We examine the associations between EBF, HIV exposure, and other maternal/child factors and the cognitive and emotional-behavioural development of children aged 7-11 y. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The Vertical Transmission Study (VTS) supported EBF in HIV-positive and HIV-negative women; between 2012 and 2014, HIV-negative VTS children (332 HIV exposed, 574 HIV unexposed) were assessed in terms of cognition (Kaufman Assessment Battery for Children Second Edition [KABC-II]), executive function (Developmental Neuropsychological Assessment Second Edition [NEPSY-II]), and emotional-behavioural functioning (parent-reported Child Behaviour Checklist, [CBCL]). We developed population means by combining the VTS sample with 629 same-aged HIV-negative children from the local demographic platform. For each outcome, we split the VTS sample into scores above or at/below each population mean and modelled each outcome using logistic regression analyses, overall and stratified by child sex. There was no demonstrated effect of EBF on overall cognitive functioning. EBF was associated with fewer conduct disorders overall (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.44 [95% CI 0.3-0.7], p ≤ 0.01), and there was weak evidence of better cognition in boys who had been exclusively breastfed for 2-5 mo versus ≤1 mo (Learning subscale aOR 2.07 [95% CI 1.0-4.3], p = 0.05). Other factors associated with better child cognition were higher maternal cognitive ability (aOR 1.43 [95% CI 1.1-1.9], p = 0.02, Sequential; aOR 1.74 [95% CI 1.3-2.4], p < 0.001, Planning subscales) and crèche attendance (aOR 1.96 [95% CI 1.1-3.5], p = 0.02, Sequential subscale). Factors positively associated with executive function were home stimulation (aOR 1.36 [95% CI 1.0-1.8], p = 0.04, Auditory Attention; aOR 1.35 [95% CI 1.0-1.8], p = 0.05, Response Set) and crèche (aOR 1.74 [95% CI 1.0-3.0], p = 0.05, Animal Sorting). Maternal mental health problems and parenting stress were associated with increased emotional-behavioural problems on the total CBCL (aOR 2.44 [95% CI 1.3-4.6], p = 0.01; aOR 7.04 [95% CI 4.2-11.9], p < 0.001, respectively). Maternal HIV status was not associated with any outcomes in the overall cohort. Limitations include the nonrandomised study design and lack of maternal mental health assessment at the child's birth. CONCLUSIONS: EBF was associated with fewer than average conduct disorders and weakly associated with improved cognitive development in boys. Efforts to improve stimulation at home, reduce maternal stress, and enable crèche attendance are likely to improve executive function and emotional-behavioural development of children.

Social patterns and differentials in the fertility transition in the context of HIV/AIDS: evidence from population surveillance, rural South Africa, 1993 - 2013.

BACKGROUND: Literature is limited on the effects of high prevalence HIV on fertility in the absence of treatment, and the effects of the introduction of sustained access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) on fertility. We summarize fertility patterns in rural northeast South Africa over 21 years during dynamic social and epidemiological change. METHODS: We use data for females aged 15-49 from the Agincourt health and socio-demographic surveillance system (1993-2013). We use discrete time event history analysis to summarize patterns in the probability of any birth. RESULTS: Overall fertility declined in 2001-2003, increased in 2004-2011, and then declined in 2012-2013. South Africans showed a similar pattern. Mozambicans showed a different pattern, with strong declines prior to 2003 before stalling during 2004-2007, and then continued fertility decline afterwards. There was an inverse gradient between fertility levels and household socioeconomic status. The gradient did not vary by time or nationality. CONCLUSIONS: The fertility transition in rural South Africa shows a pattern of decline until the height of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, with a resulting stall until further decline in the context of ART rollout. Fertility patterns are not homogenous among groups.

Cardiometabolic disease risk and HIV status in rural South Africa: establishing a baseline.

BACKGROUND: To inform health care and training, resource and research priorities, it is essential to establish how non-communicable disease risk factors vary by HIV-status in high HIV burden areas; and whether long-term anti-retroviral therapy (ART) plays a modifying role. METHODS: As part of a cohort initiation, we conducted a baseline HIV/cardiometabolic risk factor survey in 2010-2011 using an age-sex stratified random sample of ages 15+ in rural South Africa. We modelled cardiometabolic risk factors and their associations by HIV-status and self-reported ART status for ages 18+ using sex-stratified logistic regression models. RESULTS: Age-standardised HIV prevalence in women was 26% (95% CI 24-28%) and 19% (95% CI 17-21) in men. People with untreated HIV were less likely to have a high waist circumference in both women (OR 0.67; 95% CI 0.52-0.86) and men (OR 0.42; 95% CI 0.22-0.82). Untreated women were more likely to have low HDL and LDL, and treated women high triglycerides. Cardiometabolic risk factors increased with age except low HDL. The prevalence of hypertension was high (40% in women; 30% in men). CONCLUSIONS: Sub-Saharan Africa is facing intersecting epidemics of HIV and hypertension. In this setting, around half the adult population require long-term care for at least one of HIV, hypertension or diabetes. Together with the adverse effects that HIV and its treatment have on lipids, this may have serious implications for the South African health care system. Monitoring of the interaction of HIV, ART use, and cardiometabolic disease is needed at both individual and population levels.

The impacts of maternal mortality and cause of death on children's risk of dying in rural South Africa: evidence from a population based surveillance study (1992-2013).

BACKGROUND: Maternal mortality, the HIV/AIDS pandemic, and child survival are closely linked. This study contributes evidence on the impact of maternal death on children's risk of dying in an HIV-endemic population in rural South Africa. METHODS: We used data for children younger than 10 years from the Agincourt health and socio-demographic surveillance system (1992 - 2013). We used discrete time event history analysis to estimate children's risk of dying when they experienced a maternal death compared to children whose mother survived (N=3,740,992 child months). We also examined variation in risk due to cause of maternal death. We defined mother's survival status as early maternal death (during pregnancy, childbirth, or within 42 days of most recent childbirth or identified cause of death), late maternal death (within 43-365 days of most recent childbirth), any other death, and mothers who survived. RESULTS: Children who experienced an early maternal death were at 15 times the risk of dying (RRR 15.2; 95% CI 8.3-27.9) compared to children whose mother survived. Children under 1 month whose mother died an early (p=0.002) maternal death were at increased risk of dying compared to older children. Children whose mothers died of an HIV/AIDS or TB-related early maternal death were at 29 times the risk of dying compared to children with surviving mothers (RRR 29.2; 95% CI 11.7-73.1). The risk of these children dying was significantly higher than those children whose mother died of a HIV/AIDS or TB-related non-maternal death (p=0.017). CONCLUSIONS: This study contributes further evidence on the impact of a mother's death on child survival in a poor, rural setting with high HIV prevalence. The intersecting epidemics of maternal mortality and HIV/AIDS - especially in sub-Saharan Africa - have profound implications for maternal and child health and well-being. Such evidence can help guide public and primary health care practice and interventions.

Local Network Interaction as a Mechanism for Wealth Inequality.

Given limited institutional resources, low-income populations often rely on social networks to improve their socioeconomic outcomes. However, it remains in question whether small-scale social interactions could affect large-scale economic inequalities in under-resourced contexts. Here, we leverage population-level data from one of the poorest South African settings to construct a large-scale, geographically defined, inter-household social network. Using a multilevel network model, we show that having social ties in close geographic proximity is associated with stable household asset conditions, while geographically distant ties correlate to changes in asset allocation. Notably, we find that localised network interactions are associated with an increase in wealth inequality at the regional level, demonstrating how macro-level inequality may arise from micro-level social processes. Our findings highlight the importance of understanding complex social connections underpinning inter-household resource dynamics, and raise the potential of large-scale social assistance programs to reduce disparities in resource-ownership by accounting for local social constraints.

Mortality variability and differentials by age and causes of death in rural South Africa, 1994-2018.

INTRODUCTION: Understanding mortality variability by age and cause is critical to identifying intervention and prevention actions to support disadvantaged populations. We assessed mortality changes in two rural South African populations over 25 years covering pre-AIDS and peak AIDS epidemic and subsequent antiretroviral therapy (ART) availability. METHODS: Using population surveillance data from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System (AHDSS; 1994-2018) and Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI; 2000-2018) for 5-year periods, we calculated life expectancy from birth to age 85, mortality age distributions and variation, and life-years lost (LYL) decomposed into four cause-of-death groups. RESULTS: The AIDS epidemic shifted the age-at-death distribution to younger ages and increased LYL. For AHDSS, between 1994-1998 and 1999-2003 LYL increased for females from 13.6 years (95% CI 12.7 to 14.4) to 22.1 (95% CI 21.2 to 23.0) and for males from 19.9 (95% CI 18.8 to 20.8) to 27.1 (95% CI 26.2 to 28.0). AHRI LYL in 2000-2003 was extremely high (females=40.7 years (95% CI 39.8 to 41.5), males=44.8 years (95% CI 44.1 to 45.5)). Subsequent widespread ART availability reduced LYL (2014-2018) for women (AHDSS=15.7 (95% CI 15.0 to 16.3); AHRI=22.4 (95% CI 21.7 to 23.1)) and men (AHDSS=21.2 (95% CI 20.5 to 22.0); AHRI=27.4 (95% CI 26.7 to 28.2)), primarily due to reduced HIV/AIDS/TB deaths in mid-life and other communicable disease deaths in children. External causes increased as a proportion of LYL for men (2014-2018: AHRI=25%, AHDSS=17%). The share of AHDSS LYL 2014-2018 due to non-communicable diseases exceeded pre-HIV levels: females=43%; males=40%. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight shifting burdens in cause-specific LYL and persistent mortality differentials in two populations experiencing complex epidemiological transitions. Results show high contributions of child deaths to LYL at the height of the AIDS epidemic. Reductions in LYL were primarily driven by lowered HIV/AIDS/TB and other communicable disease mortality during the ART periods. LYL differentials persist despite widespread ART availability, highlighting the contributions of other communicable diseases in children, HIV/AIDS/TB and external causes in mid-life and non-communicable diseases in older ages.

Young children's probability of dying before and after their mother's death: a rural South African population-based surveillance study.

BACKGROUND: There is evidence that a young child's risk of dying increases following the mother's death, but little is known about the risk when the mother becomes very ill prior to her death. We hypothesized that children would be more likely to die during the period several months before their mother's death, as well as for several months after her death. Therefore we investigated the relationship between young children's likelihood of dying and the timing of their mother's death and, in particular, the existence of a critical period of increased risk. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data from a health and socio-demographic surveillance system in rural South Africa were collected on children 0-5 y of age from 1 January 1994 to 31 December 2008. Discrete time survival analysis was used to estimate children's probability of dying before and after their mother's death, accounting for moderators. 1,244 children (3% of sample) died from 1994 to 2008. The probability of child death began to rise 6-11 mo prior to the mother's death and increased markedly during the 2 mo immediately before the month of her death (odds ratio [OR] 7.1 [95% CI 3.9-12.7]), in the month of her death (OR 12.6 [6.2-25.3]), and during the 2 mo following her death (OR 7.0 [3.2-15.6]). This increase in the probability of dying was more pronounced for children whose mothers died of AIDS or tuberculosis compared to other causes of death, but the pattern remained for causes unrelated to AIDS/tuberculosis. Infants aged 0-6 mo at the time of their mother's death were nine times more likely to die than children aged 2-5 y. The limitations of the study included the lack of knowledge about precisely when a very ill mother will die, a lack of information about child nutrition and care, and the diagnosis of AIDS deaths by verbal autopsy rather than serostatus. CONCLUSIONS: Young children in lower income settings are more likely to die not only after their mother's death but also in the months before, when she is seriously ill. Interventions are urgently needed to support families both when the mother becomes very ill and after her death. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Prevalence of HIV among those 15 and older in rural South Africa.

A greater knowledge of the burden of HIV in rural areas of Southern Africa is needed, especially among older adults. We conducted a cross-sectional biomarker survey in the rural South African Agincourt Health and Socio-demographic Surveillance site in 2010-2011 and estimated HIV prevalence and risk factors. Using an age-sex stratified random sample of ages 15+, a total of 5037 (65.7%) of a possible 7662 individuals were located and 4362 (86.6%) consented to HIV testing. HIV prevalence was high (19.4%) and characterized by a large gender gap (10.6% for men and 23.9% for women). Rates peaked at 45.3% among men and 46.1% among women - both at ages 35-39. Compared with a similar study in the rural KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa, peak prevalence occurred at later ages, and HIV prevalence was higher among older adults - with rates above 15% for men and 10% for women through to age 70. High prevalence continues to characterize Southern Africa, and recent evidence confirms that older adults cannot be excluded from policy considerations. The high prevalence among older adults suggests likely HIV infection at older ages. Prevention activities need to expand to older adults to reduce new infections. Treatment will be complicated by increased risk of noncommunicable diseases and by increasing numbers of older people living with HIV.

Parental imprisonment, delinquent behavior, and BMI gain in a U.S. nationally representative cohort study of adolescents and adults ages 12-32.

Children who experience parental imprisonment report greater mental and physical health adversities in adolescence and adulthood relative to comparable individuals whose parents did not serve time in prison. Research has linked BMI gain with parental imprisonment among females, but other studies have shown null or negative associations between parental imprisonment and weight increases for their offspring. Using longitudinal data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health, this study attempts to resolve these differential findings by examining the interrelationship between delinquent behavior and BMI associated with parental imprisonment as individuals progress from adolescence into adulthood (ages 12-32). We show that higher delinquency levels are associated with lower BMI among men and women. With the transition from adolescence to adulthood, parental imprisonment is linked with increased BMI gain and obesity among females who are not delinquent. These findings highlight the need to consider how the decline in delinquent behavior and increasing health disparities between adolescence and adulthood may intersect as individuals experiencing parental imprisonment transition from adolescence to adulthood.

Effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on life expectancy in Australia, 2020-22.

BACKGROUND: Australia provides a valuable international case study of life expectancy during the pandemic. In contrast to many other countries, it experienced relatively stringent restrictions and low COVID-19 mortality during 2020-21, followed by relaxation of these restrictions when high vaccination rates were achieved. This study measures Australia's life expectancy trends and the contributions of age group and causes of death, during the pandemic. METHODS: Trends in life expectancy at birth in Australia and its states and territories were measured from 2020 to 2022. The contributions of age group and cause of death to these trends were measured using decomposition methods. Life expectancy was compared with other high-income countries. RESULTS: Australia's life expectancy fell by more than half a year in 2022, following a sharp increase in 2020 and moderate decline in 2021. For the 3 years 2020 to 2022, life expectancy was 0.13 years (95% confidence interval 0.07-0.19) higher for males and 0.09 years (0.03-0.14) higher for females versus 2017-19. Australia's life expectancy increase in 2020 was larger than that in the vast majority of other high-income countries, but its decline in 2022 was greater than in other countries whose life expectancy rose in the first year of the pandemic. The small negative contribution of COVID-19 deaths to life expectancy in Australia was more than offset by lower non-communicable disease mortality. There were only small differences in life expectancy change between the states with the most stringent restrictions (Victoria and New South Wales) and the rest of Australia. CONCLUSIONS: Australia's life expectancy trends during 2020-22 were relatively favourable compared with other high-income countries, with the exception of its sharp decline in 2022 once restrictions were loosened.