A GPT-based EHR modeling system for unsupervised novel disease detection.

OBJECTIVE: To develop an Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based anomaly detection model as a complement of an "astute physician" in detecting novel disease cases in a hospital and preventing emerging outbreaks. METHODS: Data included hospitalized patients (n = 120,714) at a safety-net hospital in Massachusetts. A novel Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT)-based clinical anomaly detection system was designed and further trained using Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM), which can model a hospitalized patient's Electronic Health Records (EHR) and detect atypical patients. Methods and performance metrics, similar to the ones behind the recent Large Language Models (LLMs), were leveraged to capture the dynamic evolution of the patient's clinical variables and compute an Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) anomaly score. RESULTS: In a completely unsupervised setting, hospitalizations for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection could have been predicted by our GPT model at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, with an Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC) of 92.2 %, using 31 extracted clinical variables and a 3-day detection window. Our GPT achieves individual patient-level anomaly detection and mortality prediction AUC of 78.3 % and 94.7 %, outperforming traditional linear models by 6.6 % and 9 %, respectively. Different types of clinical trajectories of a SARS-CoV-2 infection are captured by our model to make interpretable detections, while a trend of over-pessimistic outcome prediction yields a more effective detection pathway. Furthermore, our comprehensive GPT model can potentially assist clinicians with forecasting patient clinical variables and developing personalized treatment plans. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that an emerging outbreak can be accurately detected within a hospital, by using a GPT to model patient EHR time sequences and labeling them as anomalous when actual outcomes are not supported by the model. Such a GPT is also a comprehensive model with the functionality of generating future patient clinical variables, which can potentially assist clinicians in developing personalized treatment plans.

Projected Long-Term Impact of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic on Hepatitis C Outcomes in the United States: A Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic disrupted access to and uptake of hepatitis C virus (HCV) care services in the United States. It is unknown how substantially the pandemic will impact long-term HCV-related outcomes. METHODS: We used a microsimulation to estimate the 10-year impact of COVID-19 disruptions in healthcare delivery on HCV outcomes including identified infections, linkage to care, treatment initiation and completion, cirrhosis, and liver-related death. We modeled hypothetical scenarios consisting of an 18-month pandemic-related disruption in HCV care starting in March 2020 followed by varying returns to pre-pandemic rates of screening, linkage, and treatment through March 2030 and compared them to a counterfactual scenario in which there was no COVID-19 pandemic or disruptions in care. We also performed alternate scenario analyses in which the pandemic disruption lasted for 12 and 24 months. RESULTS: Compared to the "no pandemic" scenario, in the scenario in which there is no return to pre-pandemic levels of HCV care delivery, we estimate 1060 fewer identified cases, 21 additional cases of cirrhosis, and 16 additional liver-related deaths per 100 000 people. Only 3% of identified cases initiate treatment and <1% achieve sustained virologic response (SVR). Compared to "no pandemic," the best-case scenario in which an 18-month care disruption is followed by a return to pre-pandemic levels, we estimated a smaller proportion of infections identified and achieving SVR. CONCLUSIONS: A recommitment to the HCV epidemic in the United States that involves additional resources coupled with aggressive efforts to screen, link, and treat people with HCV is needed to overcome the COVID-19-related disruptions.

Race/Ethnicity, Underlying Medical Conditions, Homelessness, and Hospitalization Status of Adult Patients with COVID-19 at an Urban Safety-Net Medical Center - Boston, Massachusetts, 2020.

As of July 5, 2020, approximately 2.8 million coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases and 130,000 COVID-19-associated deaths had been reported in the United States (1). Populations historically affected by health disparities, including certain racial and ethnic minority populations, have been disproportionally affected by and hospitalized with COVID-19 (2-4). Data also suggest a higher prevalence of infection with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, among persons experiencing homelessness (5). Safety-net hospitals,† such as Boston Medical Center (BMC), which provide health care to persons regardless of their insurance status or ability to pay, treat higher proportions of these populations and might experience challenges during the COVID-19 pandemic. This report describes the characteristics and clinical outcomes of adult patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 treated at BMC during March 1-May 18, 2020. During this time, 2,729 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection were treated at BMC and categorized into one of the following mutually exclusive clinical severity designations: exclusive outpatient management (1,543; 56.5%), non-intensive care unit (ICU) hospitalization (900; 33.0%), ICU hospitalization without invasive mechanical ventilation (69; 2.5%), ICU hospitalization with mechanical ventilation (119; 4.4%), and death (98; 3.6%). The cohort comprised 44.6% non-Hispanic black (black) patients and 30.1% Hispanic or Latino (Hispanic) patients. Persons experiencing homelessness accounted for 16.4% of patients. Most patients who died were aged ≥60 years (81.6%). Clinical severity differed by age, race/ethnicity, underlying medical conditions, and homelessness. A higher proportion of Hispanic patients were hospitalized (46.5%) than were black (39.5%) or non-Hispanic white (white) (34.4%) patients, a finding most pronounced among those aged <60 years. A higher proportion of non-ICU inpatients were experiencing homelessness (24.3%), compared with homeless patients who were admitted to the ICU without mechanical ventilation (15.9%), with mechanical ventilation (15.1%), or who died (15.3%). Patient characteristics associated with illness and clinical severity, such as age, race/ethnicity, homelessness, and underlying medical conditions can inform tailored strategies that might improve outcomes and mitigate strain on the health care system from COVID-19.

Metabolic Disease and The Risk of Post-COVID Conditions: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

Objective: To examine the influence of having a baseline metabolic disorder (diabetes, hypertension, and/or obesity) on the risk of developing new clinical sequelae potentially related to SARS-CoV-2 in a large sample of commercially insured adults in the US. Design setting and participants: Deidentified data were collected from the IBM/Watson MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters (CCAE) Databases and Medicare Supplemental and Coordination of Benefits (MDCR) Databases from 2019 to 2021. A total of 839,344 adults aged 18 and above with continuous enrollment in the health plan were included in the analyses. Participants were grouped into four categories based on their COVID-19 diagnosis and whether they had at least one of the three common metabolic disorders at baseline (diabetes, obesity, or hypertension). Measures and methods: ICD-10-CM codes were used to determine new symptoms and conditions after the acute phase of SARS-CoV-2 infection, defined as ending 21 days after initial diagnosis date, or index period for those who did not have a COVID-19 diagnosis. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to create comparable reference groups. Cox proportional hazard models were conducted to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Results: Among the 772,377 individuals included in the analyses, 36,742 (4.8%) without and 20,912 (2.7%) with a baseline metabolic disorder were diagnosed with COVID-19. On average, COVID-19 patients with baseline metabolic disorders had more 2.4 more baseline comorbidities compared to those without baseline metabolic disorders. Compared to adults with no baseline metabolic condition, the risks of developing new clinical sequelae were highest among COVID-19 patients with a baseline metabolic condition (HRs ranging from 1.51 to 3.33), followed by those who had a baseline metabolic condition but with no COVID-19 infection (HRs ranging from 1.33 to 2.35), and those who had COVID-19 but no baseline metabolic condition (HRs ranging from 1.34 to 2.85). Conclusions: In a large national cohort of commercially insured adults, COVID-19 patients with a baseline metabolic condition had the highest risk of developing new clinical sequelae post-acute infection phase, followed by those who had baseline metabolic condition but no COVID-19 infection and those who had COVID-19 but no baseline metabolic disorder.

A Novel Machine Learning Algorithm for Creating Risk-Adjusted Payment Formulas.

Importance: Models predicting health care spending and other outcomes from administrative records are widely used to manage and pay for health care, despite well-documented deficiencies. New methods are needed that can incorporate more than 70 000 diagnoses without creating undesirable coding incentives. Objective: To develop a machine learning (ML) algorithm, building on Diagnostic Item (DXI) categories and Diagnostic Cost Group (DCG) methods, that automates development of clinically credible and transparent predictive models for policymakers and clinicians. Design, Setting, and Participants: DXIs were organized into disease hierarchies and assigned an Appropriateness to Include (ATI) score to reflect vagueness and gameability concerns. A novel automated DCG algorithm iteratively assigned DXIs in 1 or more disease hierarchies to DCGs, identifying sets of DXIs with the largest regression coefficient as dominant; presence of a previously identified dominating DXI removed lower-ranked ones before the next iteration. The Merative MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters Database for commercial health insurance enrollees 64 years and younger was used. Data from January 2016 through December 2018 were randomly split 90% to 10% for model development and validation, respectively. Deidentified claims and enrollment data were delivered by Merative the following November in each calendar year and analyzed from November 2020 to January 2024. Main Outcome and Measures: Concurrent top-coded total health care cost. Model performance was assessed using validation sample weighted least-squares regression, mean absolute errors, and mean errors for rare and common diagnoses. Results: This study included 35 245 586 commercial health insurance enrollees 64 years and younger (65 901 460 person-years) and relied on 19 clinicians who provided reviews in the base model. The algorithm implemented 218 clinician-specified hierarchies compared with the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) hierarchical condition category (HCC) model's 64 hierarchies. The base model that dropped vague and gameable DXIs reduced the number of parameters by 80% (1624 of 3150), achieved an R2 of 0.535, and kept mean predicted spending within 12% ($3843 of $31 313) of actual spending for the 3% of people with rare diseases. In contrast, the HHS HCC model had an R2 of 0.428 and underpaid this group by 33% ($10 354 of $31 313). Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, by automating DXI clustering within clinically specified hierarchies, this algorithm built clinically interpretable risk models in large datasets while addressing diagnostic vagueness and gameability concerns.

Target trial emulation for comparative effectiveness research with observational data: Promise and challenges for studying medications for opioid use disorder.

Medications for opioid use disorder (MOUD) increase retention in care and decrease mortality during active treatment; however, information about the comparative effectiveness of different forms of MOUD is sparse. Observational comparative effectiveness studies are subject to many types of bias; a robust framework to minimize bias would improve the quality of comparative effectiveness evidence. This paper discusses the use of target trial emulation as a framework to conduct comparative effectiveness studies of MOUD with administrative data. Using examples from our planned research project comparing buprenorphine-naloxone and extended-release naltrexone with respect to the rates of MOUD discontinuation, we provide a primer on the challenges and approaches to employing target trial emulation in the study of MOUD.

Pediatric surgical site infections in 287 hospitals in the United States, 2015-2018.

Among 287 US hospitals reporting data between 2015 and 2018, annual pediatric surgical site infection (SSI) rates ranged from 0% for gallbladder to 10.4% for colon surgeries. Colon, spinal fusion, and small-bowel SSI rates did not decrease with greater surgical volumes in contrast to appendix and ventricular-shunt SSI rates.

Structural Racism in Behavioral Health Presentation and Management.

Nia is a first-grade student with a history of trauma who was brought in by ambulance to the pediatric emergency department for "out of control behavior" at school. This is the first of multiple presentations to the emergency department for psychiatric evaluation, stabilization, and management throughout her elementary and middle school years. Several of the visits resulted in admission to the inpatient pediatric service, where she "boarded" while awaiting transfer to an inpatient psychiatric facility. At times, clinical teams used involuntary emergency medications and physical restraints, as well as hospital security presence at the bedside, to control Nia's behavior. Nia is Black and her story is a case study of how structural racism manifests for an individual child. Her story highlights the impact of adultification bias and the propensity to mislabel Black youth with diagnoses characterized by fixed patterns of negative behaviors, as opposed to recognizing normative reactions to trauma or other adverse childhood experiences-in Nia's case, poverty, domestic violence, and Child Protective Services involvement. In telling Nia's story, we (1) define racism and discuss the interplay of structural, institutional, and interpersonal racism in the health care, education, and judicial systems; (2) highlight the impact of adultification bias on Black youth; (3) delineate racial disparities in behavioral health diagnosis and management, school discipline and exclusion, and health care's contributions to the school-to-prison pipeline; and finally (4) propose action steps to mitigate the impact of racism on pediatric mental health and health care.

Effect of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on pneumococcal meningitis.

BACKGROUND: Invasive pneumococcal disease declined among children and adults after the introduction of the pediatric heptavalent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) in 2000, but its effect on pneumococcal meningitis is unclear. METHODS: We examined trends in pneumococcal meningitis from 1998 through 2005 using active, population-based surveillance data from eight sites in the United States. Isolates were grouped into PCV7 serotypes (4, 6B, 9V, 14, 18C, 19F, and 23F), PCV7-related serotypes (6A, 9A, 9L, 9N, 18A, 18B, 18F, 19B, 19C, 23A, and 23B), and non-PCV7 serotypes (all others). Changes in the incidence of pneumococcal meningitis were assessed against baseline values from 1998-1999. RESULTS: We identified 1379 cases of pneumococcal meningitis. The incidence declined from 1.13 cases to 0.79 case per 100,000 persons between 1998-1999 and 2004-2005 (a 30.1% decline, P<0.001). Among persons younger than 2 years of age and those 65 years of age or older, the incidence decreased during the study period by 64.0% and 54.0%, respectively (P<0.001 for both groups). Rates of PCV7-serotype meningitis declined from 0.66 case to 0.18 case (a 73.3% decline, P<0.001) among patients of all ages. Although rates of PCV7-related-serotype disease decreased by 32.1% (P=0.08), rates of non-PCV7-serotype disease increased from 0.32 to 0.51 (an increase of 60.5%, P<0.001). The percentages of cases from non-PCV7 serotypes 19A, 22F, and 35B each increased significantly during the study period. On average, 27.8% of isolates were nonsusceptible to penicillin, but fewer isolates were nonsusceptible to chloramphenicol (5.7%), meropenem (16.6%), and cefotaxime (11.8%). The proportion of penicillin-nonsusceptible isolates decreased between 1998 and 2003 (from 32.0% to 19.4%, P=0.01) but increased between 2003 and 2005 (from 19.4% to 30.1%, P=0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Rates of pneumococcal meningitis have decreased among children and adults since PCV7 was introduced. Although the overall effect of the vaccine remains substantial, a recent increase in meningitis caused by non-PCV7 serotypes, including strains nonsusceptible to antibiotics, is a concern.

Risk Factors for Admission Within a Hospital-Based COVID-19 Home Monitoring Program.

Background: Despite increasing vaccination rates, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to overwhelm heath systems worldwide. Few studies follow outpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 to understand risks for subsequent admissions. We sought to identify hospital admission risk factors in individuals with COVID-19 to guide outpatient follow-up and prioritization for novel therapeutics. Methods: We prospectively designed data collection templates and remotely monitored patients after a COVID-19 diagnosis, then retrospectively analyzed data to identify risk factors for 30-day admission for those initially managed outpatient and for 30-day re-admissions for those monitored after an initial COVID-19 admission. We included all patients followed by our COVID-19 follow-up monitoring program from April 2020 to February 2021. Results: Among 4070 individuals followed by the program, older age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.05; 95% CI, 1.03-1.06), multiple comorbidities (1-2: aOR, 5.88; 95% CI, 2.07-16.72; ≥3: aOR, 20.40; 95% CI, 7.23-57.54), presence of fever (aOR, 2.70; 95% CI, 1.65-4.42), respiratory symptoms (aOR, 2.46; 95% CI, 1.53-3.94), and gastrointestinal symptoms (aOR, 2.19; 95% CI, 1.53-3.94) at initial contact were associated with increased risk of COVID-19-related 30-day admission among those initially managed outpatient. Loss of taste/smell was associated with decreased admission risk (aOR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.25-0.85). For postdischarge patients, older age was also associated with increased re-admission risk (aOR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01-1.06). Conclusions: This study reveals that in addition to older age and specific comorbidities, the number of high-risk conditions, fever, respiratory symptoms, and gastrointestinal symptoms at diagnosis all increased odds of COVID-19-related admission. These data could enhance patient prioritization for early treatment interventions and ongoing surveillance.

Development and Assessment of a New Framework for Disease Surveillance, Prediction, and Risk Adjustment: The Diagnostic Items Classification System.

Importance: Current disease risk-adjustment formulas in the US rely on diagnostic classification frameworks that predate the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-10-CM). Objective: To develop an ICD-10-CM-based classification framework for predicting diverse health care payment, quality, and performance outcomes. Design Setting and Participants: Physician teams mapped all ICD-10-CM diagnoses into 3 types of diagnostic items (DXIs): main effect DXIs that specify diseases; modifiers, such as laterality, timing, and acuity; and scaled variables, such as body mass index, gestational age, and birth weight. Every diagnosis was mapped to at least 1 DXI. Stepwise and weighted least-squares estimation predicted cost and utilization outcomes, and their performance was compared with models built on (1) the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Clinical Classifications Software Refined (CCSR) categories, and (2) the Health and Human Services Hierarchical Condition Categories (HHS-HCC) used in the Affordable Care Act Marketplace. Each model's performance was validated using R 2, mean absolute error, the Cumming prediction measure, and comparisons of actual to predicted outcomes by spending percentiles and by diagnostic frequency. The IBM MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters Database, 2016 to 2018, was used, which included privately insured, full- or partial-year eligible enrollees aged 0 to 64 years in plans with medical, drug, and mental health/substance use coverage. Main Outcomes and Measures: Fourteen concurrent outcomes were predicted: overall and plan-paid health care spending (top-coded and not top-coded); enrollee out-of-pocket spending; hospital days and admissions; emergency department visits; and spending for 6 types of services. The primary outcome was annual health care spending top-coded at $250 000. Results: A total of 65 901 460 person-years were split into 90% estimation/10% validation samples (n = 6 604 259). In all, 3223 DXIs were created: 2435 main effects, 772 modifiers, and 16 scaled items. Stepwise regressions predicting annual health care spending (mean [SD], $5821 [$17 653]) selected 76% of the main effect DXIs with no evidence of overfitting. Validated R 2 was 0.589 in the DXI model, 0.539 for CCSR, and 0.428 for HHS-HCC. Use of DXIs reduced underpayment for enrollees with rare (1-in-a-million) diagnoses by 83% relative to HHS-HCCs. Conclusions: In this diagnostic modeling study, the new DXI classification system showed improved predictions over existing diagnostic classification systems for all spending and utilization outcomes considered.

Time to SARS-CoV-2 PCR Clearance in Immunocompromising Conditions: Is Test-Based Removal From Isolation Necessary in Severely Immunocompromised Individuals?

To determine the association between immunosuppression and time to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) polymerase chain reaction (PCR) clearance, we studied 3758 adults retested following initial SARS-CoV-2 infection. Cox proportional hazards models demonstrated delayed PCR clearance with older age, multiple comorbidities, and solid organ transplant but not by degree of immunocompromise. These findings challenge current retesting practices.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of efforts to reduce risk of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease in southwestern Pennsylvania, 2005-2007.

INTRODUCTION: We assessed the cost-effectiveness of a community-based, modified Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) designed to reduce risk factors for type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. METHODS: We developed a Markov decision model to compare costs and effectiveness of a modified DPP intervention with usual care during a 3-year period. Input parameters included costs and outcomes from 2 projects that implemented a community-based modified DPP for participants with metabolic syndrome, and from other sources. The model discounted future costs and benefits by 3% annually. RESULTS: At 12 months, usual care reduced relative risk of metabolic syndrome by 12.1%. A modified DPP intervention reduced relative risk by 16.2% and yielded life expectancy gains of 0.01 quality-adjusted life-years (3.67 days) at an incremental cost of $34.50 ($3,420 per quality-adjusted life-year gained). In 1-way sensitivity analyses, results were sensitive to probabilities that risk factors would be reduced with or without a modified DPP and that patients would enroll in an intervention, undergo testing, and acquire diabetes with or without an intervention if they were risk-factor-positive. Results were also sensitive to utilities for risk-factor-positive patients. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, the intervention cost less than $20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained in approximately 78% of model iterations. CONCLUSION: We consider the modified DPP delivered in community and primary care settings a sound investment.

Association Between Federal Value-Based Incentive Programs and Health Care-Associated Infection Rates in Safety-Net and Non-Safety-Net Hospitals.

Importance: In the US, federal value-based incentive programs are more likely to penalize safety-net institutions than non-safety-net institutions. Whether these programs differentially change the rates of targeted health care-associated infections in safety-net vs non-safety-net hospitals is unknown. Objective: To assess the association of Hospital-Acquired Condition Reduction Program (HACRP) and Hospital Value-Based Purchasing (HVBP) implementation with changes in rates of targeted health care-associated infections and disparities in rates among safety-net and non-safety-net hospitals. Design, Setting, and Participants: This interrupted time series included all US acute care hospitals enrolled in the Preventing Avoidable Infectious Complications by Adjusting Payment study that participated in mandatory reporting to the National Healthcare Safety Network from January 1, 2013, through June 30, 2018. Hospital characteristics were obtained from the 2015 American Hospital Association annual survey. Penalty statuses for 2015 to 2018 were obtained from Hospital Compare. Data were analyzed between July 9, 2018, and October 1, 2019. Exposures: HACRP and HVBP implementation in fiscal year 2015 or 2016. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcomes were rates of 4 health care-associated infections: central line-associated bloodstream infection (CLABSI), catheter-associated urinary tract infection (CAUTI), surgical site infection (SSI) after colon surgical procedures, and SSI after abdominal hysterectomy procedures. Regression models were fit using generalized estimating equations to assess the association of HACRP and HVBP implementation with health care-associated infection rates and disparities in infection rates. Results: Of the 618 acute care hospitals included in this study, 473 (76.5%) were non-safety net and 145 (23.5%) were considered safety net. In these hospitals, HACRP and HVBP implementation was not associated with improvements in level or trend for any health care-associated infection examined (eg, CAUTI in safety-net hospitals: incidence rate ratio [IRR] for level change, 0.98 [95% CI, 0.79-1.23; P = .89]; IRR for change in slope, 1.00 [95% CI, 0.97-1.03; P = .80]). Before program implementation, infection rates were statistically significantly higher for safety-net than for non-safety-net hospitals for CLABSI (IRR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.07-1.42; P = .004), CAUTI (IRR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.16-1.64; P < .001), and SSI after colon surgical procedure (odds ratio [OR], 1.26; 95% CI, 1.06-1.50; P = .009). The disparity persisted over time when comparing the last year of the study with the first year (CLABSI: ratio of ratios [ROR], 0.93 [95% CI, 0.77-1.13; P = .48]; CAUTI: ROR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.73-1.10; P = .31]; SSI after colon surgical procedures: ROR, 0.96 [95% CI, 0.78-1.20; P = .75]). Rates of SSI after abdominal hysterectomy procedure were similar in safety-net and non-safety-net hospitals before implementation (OR, 1.13; 95% CI, 0.91-1.40; P = .27) but higher after implementation (OR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.11-1.83; P = .006), although this change was not significant (ROR, 1.20; 95% CI, 0.91-1.59; P = .20). Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that HACRP and HVBP implementation was not associated with any improvements in targeted health care-associated infections among safety-net or non-safety-net hospitals or with changes in disparities in infection rates. Given the persistent health care-associated infection rate disparities, these programs appear to function as a disproportionate penalty system for safety-net hospitals that offer no measurable benefits for patients.

Health Care-Associated Infections Among Critically Ill Children in the US, 2013-2018.

Importance: Central catheter-associated bloodstream infections (CLABSIs) and catheter-associated urinary tract infections (CAUTIs) increase morbidity, mortality, and health care costs in pediatric patients. Objective: To examine changes over time in CLABSI and CAUTI rates between 2013 and 2018 in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs) and pediatric intensive care units (PICUs) using prospective surveillance data from community hospitals, children's hospitals, and pediatric units within general hospitals. Design, Setting, and Participants: This time series study included 176 US hospitals reporting pediatric health care-associated infection surveillance data to the National Healthcare Safety Network from January 1, 2013, to June 30, 2018. Patients aged 18 years or younger admitted to PICUs or level III NICUs were included in the analysis. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcomes were device-associated rates of CLABSI in NICUs and PICUs and CAUTI in PICUs (infections per 1000 device-days). Secondary outcomes included population-based rates (infections per 10 000 patient-days) and device utilization (device-days per patient-days). Regression models were fit using generalized estimating equations to assess yearly changes in CLABSI and CAUTI rates, adjusted for birth weight (≤1500 vs >1500 g) in neonatal models. Results: Of the 176 hospitals, 132 hospitals with NICUs and 114 hospitals with PICUs contributed data. Of these, NICUs reported 6 064 172 patient-days and 1 363 700 central line-days and PICUs reported 1 999 979 patient-days, 925 956 central catheter-days, and 327 599 indwelling urinary catheter-days. In NICUs, there were no significant changes in yearly trends in device-associated (incidence rate ratio [IRR] per year, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.95-1.03) and population-based (IRR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.92-1.00) CLABSI rates or central catheter utilization (odds ratio [OR], 0.97; 95% CI, 0.95-1.00). Results were similar in PICUs, with device-associated (IRR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.99-1.07) and population-based (IRR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.99-1.07) CLABSI rates and central catheter utilization (OR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.97-1.01) remaining stable. While device-associated CAUTI rates in PICUs also remained unchanged over time (IRR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.91-1.03), population-based CAUTI rates significantly decreased by 8% per year (IRR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.86-0.98) and indwelling urinary catheter utilization significantly decreased by 6% per year (OR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.91-0.96). Conclusions and Relevance: Recent trends in CLABSI rates noted in this study among critically ill neonates and children in a large cohort of US hospitals indicate that past gains have held, without evidence of further improvements, suggesting novel approaches for CLABSI prevention are needed. Modest improvements in population-based CAUTI rates likely reflect more judicious use of urinary catheters.

Diagnostic Category Prevalence in 3 Classification Systems Across the Transition to the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification.

Importance: On October 1, 2015, the US transitioned to the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-10-CM) for recording diagnoses, symptoms, and procedures. It is unknown whether this transition was associated with changes in diagnostic category prevalence based on diagnosis classification systems commonly used for payment and quality reporting. Objective: To assess changes in diagnostic category prevalence associated with the ICD-10-CM transition. Design, Setting, and Participants: This interrupted time series analysis and cross-sectional study examined level and trend changes in diagnostic category prevalence associated with the ICD-10-CM transition and clinically reviewed a subset of diagnostic categories with changes of 20% or more. Data included insurance claim diagnoses from the IBM MarketScan Commercial Database from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2017, for more than 18 million people aged 0 to 64 years with private insurance. Diagnoses were mapped using 3 common diagnostic classification systems: World Health Organization (WHO) disease chapters, Department of Health and Human Services Hierarchical Condition Categories (HHS-HCCs), and Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Clinical Classification System (AHRQ-CCS). Data were analyzed from December 1, 2018, to January 21, 2020. Exposures: US implementation of ICD-10-CM. Main Outcomes and Measures: Monthly rates of individuals with at least 1 diagnosis in a diagnostic classification category per 10 000 eligible members. Results: The analytic sample contained information on 2.1 billion enrollee person-months with 3.4 billion clinically assigned diagnoses; the mean (range) monthly sample size was 22.1 (18.4 to 27.1 ) million individuals. While diagnostic category prevalence changed minimally for WHO disease chapters, the ICD-10-CM transition was associated with level changes of 20% or more among 20 of 127 HHS-HCCs (15.7%) and 46 of 282 AHRQ-CCS categories (16.3%) and with trend changes of 20% or more among 12 of 127 of HHS-HCCs (9.4%) and 27 of 282 of AHRQ-CCS categories (9.6%). For HHS-HCCs, monthly rates of individuals with any acute myocardial infarction diagnosis increased 131.5% (95% CI, 124.1% to 138.8%), primarily because HHS added non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction diagnoses to this category. The HHS-HCC for diabetes with chronic complications increased by 92.4% (95% CI, 84.2% to 100.5%), primarily from including new diabetes-related hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia codes, and the rate for completed pregnancy with complications decreased by 54.5% (95% CI, -58.7% to -50.2%) partly due to removing vaginal birth after cesarean delivery as a complication. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that the ICD-10-CM transition was associated with large prevalence changes for many diagnostic categories. Diagnostic classification systems developed using ICD-9-CM may need to be refined using ICD-10-CM data to avoid unintended consequences for disease surveillance, performance assessment, and risk-adjusted payments.

Provision of Utility Shut-off Protection Letters at an Urban Safety-Net Hospital, 2009-2018.

Most states prohibit utility companies from terminating service to low-income households when occupants present a medical letter confirming a household member has a chronic serious illness. It is unclear how many patients receive these letters and whether screening for health-related social needs (HRSN) identifies these patients. We analyzed characteristics of adult patients at a safety-net hospital with a utility shut-off protection letter 2009-2018. A total of 2973 patients received a letter; most were non-Hispanic black, and had government insurance. Among patients who received a letter in 2018, 70% were screened for HRSN. Among these, only 16% screened positive for difficulty paying utility bills.

Cost-effectiveness of HIV treatment in resource-poor settings--the case of Côte d'Ivoire.

BACKGROUND: As antiretroviral therapy is increasingly used in settings with limited resources, key questions about the timing of treatment and use of diagnostic tests to guide clinical decisions must be addressed. METHODS: We assessed the cost-effectiveness of treatment strategies for a cohort of adults in Côte d'Ivoire who were infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (mean age, 33 years; CD4 cell count, 331 per cubic millimeter; HIV RNA level, 5.3 log copies per milliliter). Using a computer-based simulation model that incorporates the CD4 cell count and HIV RNA level as predictors of disease progression, we compared the long-term clinical and economic outcomes associated with no treatment, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole prophylaxis alone, antiretroviral therapy alone, and prophylaxis with antiretroviral therapy. RESULTS: Undiscounted gains in life expectancy ranged from 10.7 months with antiretroviral therapy and prophylaxis initiated on the basis of clinical criteria to 45.9 months with antiretroviral therapy and prophylaxis initiated on the basis of CD4 testing and clinical criteria, as compared with trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole prophylaxis alone. The incremental cost per year of life gained was 240 dollars (in 2002 U.S. dollars) for prophylaxis alone, 620 dollars for antiretroviral therapy and prophylaxis without CD4 testing, and 1,180 dollars for antiretroviral therapy and prophylaxis with CD4 testing, each compared with the next least expensive strategy. None of the strategies that used antiretroviral therapy alone were as cost-effective as those that also used trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole prophylaxis. Life expectancy was increased by 30% with use of a second line of antiretroviral therapy after failure of the first-line regimen. CONCLUSIONS: A strategy of trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole prophylaxis and antiretroviral therapy, with the use of clinical criteria alone or in combination with CD4 testing to guide the timing of treatment, is an economically attractive health investment in settings with limited resources.