Description of empirical movement data from Canadian swine herds with an application to a disease spread simulation model.

We report the methods and findings of a survey of Canadian swine producers summarizing farm-types at-risk of foreign animal disease (FAD) and the routine movement of animals, semen and workers among swine farms, as observed during a 42-day period. Of the 311 producers who returned completed questionnaires, 17% represented swine-herds with no swine or semen movement on or off the farm during the 42 days, 57% were sow herds or farrow-to-finish herds with limited movement onto the farm but movement off the farm, and 26% were swine-herds with movements on and off the farm. A substantial number of premises (>50% in some provinces) with swine also kept other animal species on the same premises. We applied the empirical movement data from the survey in a stochastic simulation model to estimate the number of herds infected and the basic regional distribution of infection that could be expected to occur if the FAD was not detected and routine movements were permitted to occur up to 42 days after infection with a FAD of a single randomly selected herd. Forty-five percent of the simulations did not involve spread beyond the index farm, whereas 34.8% involved spread among five or more farms after 42 days of routine movement.

The role of immunostimulation in the development of postweaning multisystemic wasting syndrome in pigs under field conditions.

We evaluated the effects of immunostimulation in the development of postweaning multisystemic wasting syndrome (PMWS) in 930 pigs 53 to 54 d old in a grower/finisher barn with a history of PMWS. The pigs were allocated to 5 treatment groups: 4 groups received a single intramuscular injection of RespiSure-ONE (a commercial Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae vaccine; n = 197), Emulsigen (an oil-based adjuvant; n = 172), Alhydrogel (an aluminum-hydroxide-based adjuvant; n = 172), or physiologic saline (n = 218); 1 group received no treatment (n = 171). Pigs affected by PMWS were found in all the groups. Antigen to Porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV-2) was detected by immunohistochemical testing within lesions of mesenteric lymph node, spleen, Peyer's patch, and lung of affected pigs. There was no significant difference in the incidence of PMWS among the groups. The findings indicate that immunostimulation did not influence the expression of PMWS in this study. Thus, routine vaccination against swine diseases may not significantly contribute to the occurrence of PMWS under field conditions.

Use of Bayesian Belief Network techniques to explore the interaction of biosecurity practices on the probability of porcine disease occurrence in Canada.

Identification and quantification of pathogen threats need to be a priority for the Canadian swine industry so that resources can be focused where they will be most effective. Here we create a tool based on a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) to model the interaction between biosecurity practices and the probability of occurrence of four different diseases on Canadian swine farms. The benefits of using this novel approach, in comparison to other methods, is that it enables us to explore both the complex interaction and the relative importance of biosecurity practices on the probability of disease occurrence. In order to build the BBN we used two datasets. The first dataset detailed biosecurity practices employed on 218 commercial swine farms across Canada in 2010. The second dataset detailed animal health status and disease occurrence on 90 of those farms between 2010 and 2012. We used expert judgement to identify 15 biosecurity practices that were considered the most important in mitigating disease occurrence on farms. These included: proximity to other livestock holdings, the health status of purchased stock, manure disposal methods, as well as the procedures for admitting vehicles and staff. Four diseases were included in the BBN: Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS), (a prevalent endemic aerosol pathogen), Swine influenza (SI) (a viral respiratory aerosol pathogen), Mycoplasma pneumonia (MP) (an endemic respiratory disease spread by close contact and aerosol) and Swine dysentery (SD) (an enteric disease which is re-emerging in North America). This model indicated that the probability of disease occurrence was influenced by a number of manageable biosecurity practices. Increased probability of PRRS and of MP were associated with spilt feed (feed that did not fall directly in a feeding trough), not being disposed of immediately and with manure being brought onto the farm premises and spread on land adjacent to the pigs. Increased probabilities of SI and SD were associated with the farm allowing access to visiting vehicles without cleaning or disinfection. SD was also more likely to occur when the health status of purchased stock was not known. Finally, we discuss how such a model can be used by the Canadian swine industry to quantify disease risks and to determine practices that may reduce the probability of disease occurrence.

Simulation of between-farm transmission of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus in Ontario, Canada using the North American Animal Disease Spread Model.

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS), a viral disease of swine, has major economic impacts on the swine industry. The North American Animal Disease Spread Model (NAADSM) is a spatial, stochastic, farm level state-transition modeling framework originally developed to simulate highly contagious and foreign livestock diseases. The objectives of this study were to develop a model to simulate between-farm spread of a homologous strain of PRRS virus in Ontario swine farms via direct (animal movement) and indirect (sharing of trucks between farms) contacts using the NAADSM and to compare the patterns and extent of outbreak under different simulated conditions. A total of 2552 swine farms in Ontario province were allocated to each census division of Ontario and geo-locations of the farms were randomly generated within the agriculture land of each Census Division. Contact rates among different production types were obtained using pig movement information from four regions in Canada. A total of 24 scenarios were developed involving various direct (movement of infected animals) and indirect (pig transportation trucks) contact parameters in combination with alternating the production type of the farm in which the infection was seeded. Outbreaks were simulated for one year with 1000 replications. The median number of farms infected, proportion of farms with multiple outbreaks and time to reach the peak epidemic were used to compare the size, progression and extent of outbreaks. Scenarios involving spread only by direct contact between farms resulted in outbreaks where the median percentage of infected farms ranged from 31.5 to 37% of all farms. In scenarios with both direct and indirect contact, the median percentage of infected farms increased to a range from 41.6 to 48.6%. Furthermore, scenarios with both direct and indirect contact resulted in a 44% increase in median epidemic size when compared to the direct contact scenarios. Incorporation of both animal movements and the sharing of trucks within the model indicated that the effect of direct and indirect contact may be nonlinear on outbreak progression. The increase of 44% in epidemic size when indirect contact, via sharing of trucks, was incorporated into the model highlights the importance of proper biosecurity measures in preventing transmission of the PRRS virus. Simulation of between-farm spread of the PRRS virus in swine farms has highlighted the relative importance of direct and indirect contact and provides important insights regarding the possible patterns and extent of spread of the PRRS virus in a completely susceptible population with herd demographics similar to those found in Ontario, Canada.

Development of a network based model to simulate the between-farm transmission of the porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus.

Contact structure within a population can significantly affect the outcomes of infectious disease spread models. The objective of this study was to develop a network based simulation model for the between-farm spread of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus to assess the impact of contact structure on between-farm transmission of PRRS virus. For these farm level models, a hypothetical population of 500 swine farms following a multistage production system was used. The contact rates between farms were based on a study analyzing movement of pigs in Canada, while disease spread parameters were extracted from published literature. Eighteen distinct scenarios were designed and simulated by varying the mode of transmission (direct versus direct and indirect contact), type of index herd (farrowing, nursery and finishing), and the presumed network structures among swine farms (random, scale-free and small-world). PRRS virus was seeded in a randomly selected farm and 500 iterations of each scenario were simulated for 52 weeks. The median epidemic size by the end of the simulated period and percentage die-out for each scenario, were the key outcomes captured. Scenarios with scale-free network models resulted in the largest epidemic sizes, while scenarios with random and small-world network models resulted in smaller and similar epidemic sizes. Similarly, stochastic die-out percentage was least for scenarios with scale-free networks followed by random and small-world networks. Findings of the study indicated that incorporating network structures among the swine farms had a considerable impact on the spread of PRRS virus, highlighting the importance of understanding and incorporating realistic contact structures when developing infectious disease spread models for similar populations.

Standards for reporting surveillance information in freedom from infection models by example of Trichinella in Canadian market hogs.

Freedom from infection modeling, using scenario trees, has become an established methodology and is well described in the literature. However, standards for organizing and reporting the surveillance information incorporated into such models are less developed. Canada has been routinely testing for Trichinella spiralis in market hogs in federally inspected slaughter plants since the late 1990s. By way of presenting our work on T. spiralis in Canadian hogs, we propose that information in surveillance models be organized in distinct categories, each with specific parameters and values that are thoroughly described and justified. The proposed categories are: (1) definitions for the objectives, (2) initial time period, (3) inputs, (4) data, (5) model settings, (6) outputs, and (7) validation. Having a standardized manner of reporting such studies will facilitate their validation and expedite their evaluation by experts in the field and their use in trade negotiations.

Occurrence of Giardia and Cryptosporidium in pigs on Prince Edward Island, Canada.

In a cross-sectional study of 633 pigs from 21 herds on Prince Edward Island, Canada (PEI), the prevalence of infection with Cryptosporidium and Giardia, and the genotypes and species of isolates were determined in order to establish the zoonotic potential of pigs in this region. As determined by direct immunofluorescence microscopy (DFA), 18 herds (86%) and 163 animals (26%; 95% CI: 22-29%) tested positive for Cryptosporidium, while just 3 herds (14%) and 6 animals (1%; 95% CI: 0.4-2%) tested positive for Giardia. Cryptosporidium spp. isolates were detected in 39% (95% CI: 34-44%) of weanlings (1-3 months of age) and 9% (95% CI: 6-13) of sows (>8months of age). Molecular characterization using the 18S rDNA and HSP70 gene fragments revealed the presence of Cryptosporidium sp. pig genotype II, C. suis, C. parvum, and Cryptosporidium sp. mouse genotype. Among the 113 isolates of Cryptosporidium spp. successfully genotyped, pig genotype II (61%) predominated, with C. suis (36%) being the next most prominant isolate. C. parvum (2%; two isolates) and Cryptosporidium sp. mouse genotype (0.9%; one isolate) were only occasionally isolated. The only two Cryptosporidium-positive genotyped isolates from sows included one each of C. suis and Cryptosporidium sp. pig genotype II. All but one of the six Giardia positive isolates were detected in weanling pigs. None of the Giardia-positive isolates was amenable to PCR. This study demonstrates that Cryptosporidium spp. are highly prevalent in pigs on PEI, Canada, are found mostly in weanlings (1-3 months of age). Furthermore, the pigs are primarily infected by the host-specific genotypes and species, Cryptosporidium sp. pig genotype II and C. suis, whereas the zoonotic C. parvum is rare. Giardia duodenalis is only occasionally found in pigs. These findings suggest that domestic pigs on PEI, Canada, likely do not pose a significant health risk to humans from these parasites.