Sub-national variation in measles vaccine coverage and outbreak risk: a case study from a 2010 outbreak in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Despite progress towards increasing global vaccination coverage, measles continues to be one of the leading, preventable causes of death among children worldwide. Whether and how to target sub-national areas for vaccination campaigns continues to remain a question. We analyzed three metrics for prioritizing target areas: vaccination coverage, susceptible birth cohort, and the effective reproductive ratio (RE) in the context of the 2010 measles epidemic in Malawi. METHODS: Using case-based surveillance data from the 2010 measles outbreak in Malawi, we estimated vaccination coverage from the proportion of cases reporting with a history of prior vaccination at the district and health facility catchment scale. Health facility catchments were defined as the set of locations closer to a given health facility than to any other. We combined these estimates with regional birth rates to estimate the size of the annual susceptible birth cohort. We also estimated the effective reproductive ratio, RE, at the health facility polygon scale based on the observed rate of exponential increase of the epidemic. We combined these estimates to identify spatial regions that would be of high priority for supplemental vaccination activities. RESULTS: The estimated vaccination coverage across all districts was 84%, but ranged from 61 to 99%. We found that 8 districts and 354 health facility catchments had estimated vaccination coverage below 80%. Areas that had highest birth cohort size were frequently large urban centers that had high vaccination coverage. The estimated RE ranged between 1 and 2.56. The ranking of districts and health facility catchments as priority areas varied depending on the measure used. CONCLUSIONS: Each metric for prioritization may result in discrete target areas for vaccination campaigns; thus, there are tradeoffs to choosing one metric over another. However, in some cases, certain areas may be prioritized by all three metrics. These areas should be treated with particular concern. Furthermore, the spatial scale at which each metric is calculated impacts the resulting prioritization and should also be considered when prioritizing areas for vaccination campaigns. These methods may be used to allocate effort for prophylactic campaigns or to prioritize response for outbreak response vaccination.

Nontuberculous Mycobacteria Infections at a Provincial Reference Hospital, Cambodia.

Prevalence of nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) disease is poorly documented in countries with high prevalence of tuberculosis (TB). We describe prevalence, risk factors, and TB program implications for NTM isolates and disease in Cambodia. A prospective cohort of 1,183 patients with presumptive TB underwent epidemiologic, clinical, radiologic, and microbiologic evaluation, including >12-months of follow-up for patients with NTM isolates. Prevalence of NTM isolates was 10.8% and of disease was 0.9%; 217 (18.3%) patients had TB. Of 197 smear-positive patients, 171 (86.8%) had TB confirmed (167 by culture and 4 by Xpert MTB/RIF assay only) and 11 (5.6%) had NTM isolates. HIV infection and past TB were independently associated with having NTM isolates. Improved detection of NTM isolates in Cambodia might require more systematic use of mycobacterial culture and the use of Xpert MTB/RIF to confirm smear-positive TB cases, especially in patients with HIV infection or a history of TB.

Four years of case-based surveillance of meningitis following the introduction of MenAfriVac in Moissala, Chad: lessons learned.

OBJECTIVE: Case-based surveillance of bacterial meningitis in sentinel districts has been recommended after the introduction of the conjugated vaccine against Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A (NmA), MenAfriVac, in the African meningitis belt. Here we report data and lessons learnt from four years of surveillance in the district of Moissala, Chad. METHODS: All suspected cases of meningitis were referred free of charge to the district hospital for lumbar puncture and treatment. Cerebrospinal fluid samples were tested with Pastorex latex agglutination in Moissala, and inoculated trans-isolate media were used for culture and PCR at the national reference laboratory and/or at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health. RESULTS: From July 2012 to December 2016, 237 suspected cases of meningitis were notified, and a specimen was collected from 224. Eighty-three samples were positive for a bacterial pathogen by culture, PCR or Pastorex, including 58 cases due to Streptococcus pneumoniae with only 28 of 49 pneumococcal meningitis confirmed by culture or PCR correctly identified by Pastorex. Four cases of NmA were detected by Pastorex, but none were confirmed by PCR. CONCLUSION: Implementation of case-based surveillance for meningitis is feasible in Chad, but has required political and technical engagement. Given the high proportion of S. pneumoniae and its poor detection by Pastorex, continued use of PCR is warranted for surveillance outside of outbreaks, and efforts to accelerate the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines are needed. Introduction of MenAfriVac in routine immunisation and future availability of a pentavalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine will be key elements for the sustained reduction in meningitis outbreaks in the area.

Improved Neonatal Mortality at a District Hospital in Aweil, South Sudan.

Neonatal deaths comprise a growing proportion of global under-five mortality. However, data from the highest-burden areas is sparse. This descriptive retrospective study analyses the outcomes of all infants exiting the Médecins sans Frontières-managed neonatal unit in Aweil Hospital, rural South Sudan from 2011 to 2014. A total of 4268 patients were treated over 4 years, with annual admissions increasing from 687 to 1494. Overall mortality was 13.5% (n = 576), declining from 18.7% to 11.1% (p for trend <0.001). Newborns weighing <2500 g were at significantly increased mortality risk compared with babies ≥2500 g (odds ratio = 2.27, 95% confidence interval = 1.9-2.71, p < 0.001). Leading causes of death included sepsis (49.7%), tetanus (15.8%), respiratory distress (12.8%) and asphyxia (9.2%). Tetanus had the highest case fatality rate (49.7%), followed by perinatal asphyxia (26.5%), respiratory distress (20.4%) and neonatal sepsis (10.5%). Despite increasing admissions, overall mortality declined, indicating that survival of these especially vulnerable infants can be improved even in a basic-level district hospital programme.

Reaching hard-to-reach individuals: Nonselective versus targeted outbreak response vaccination for measles.

Current mass vaccination campaigns in measles outbreak response are nonselective with respect to the immune status of individuals. However, the heterogeneity in immunity, due to previous vaccination coverage or infection, may lead to potential bias of such campaigns toward those with previous high access to vaccination and may result in a lower-than-expected effective impact. During the 2010 measles outbreak in Malawi, only 3 of the 8 districts where vaccination occurred achieved a measureable effective campaign impact (i.e., a reduction in measles cases in the targeted age groups greater than that observed in nonvaccinated districts). Simulation models suggest that selective campaigns targeting hard-to-reach individuals are of greater benefit, particularly in highly vaccinated populations, even for low target coverage and with late implementation. However, the choice between targeted and nonselective campaigns should be context specific, achieving a reasonable balance of feasibility, cost, and expected impact. In addition, it is critical to develop operational strategies to identify and target hard-to-reach individuals.

Local discrepancies in measles vaccination opportunities: results of population-based surveys in Sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization recommends African children receive two doses of measles containing vaccine (MCV) through routine programs or supplemental immunization activities (SIA). Moreover, children have an additional opportunity to receive MCV through outbreak response immunization (ORI) mass campaigns in certain contexts. Here, we present the results of MCV coverage by dose estimated through surveys conducted after outbreak response in diverse settings in Sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: We included 24 household-based surveys conducted in six countries after a non-selective mass vaccination campaign. In the majority (22/24), the survey sample was selected using probability proportional to size cluster-based sampling. Others used Lot Quality Assurance Sampling. RESULTS: In total, data were collected on 60,895 children from 2005 to 2011. Routine coverage varied between countries (>95% in Malawi and Kirundo province (Burundi) while <35% in N'Djamena (Chad) in 2005), within a country and over time. SIA coverage was <75% in most settings. ORI coverage ranged from >95% in Malawi to 71.4% [95% CI: 68.9-73.8] in N'Djamena (Chad) in 2005.In five sites, >5% of children remained unvaccinated after several opportunities. Conversely, in Malawi and DRC, over half of the children eligible for the last SIA received a third dose of MCV. CONCLUSIONS: Control pre-elimination targets were still not reached, contributing to the occurrence of repeated measles outbreak in the Sub-Saharan African countries reported here. Although children receiving a dose of MCV through outbreak response benefit from the intervention, ensuring that programs effectively target hard to reach children remains the cornerstone of measles control.

Lessons and challenges for measles control from unexpected large outbreak, Malawi.

Despite high reported coverage for routine and supplementary immunization, in 2010 in Malawi, a large measles outbreak occurred that comprised 134,000 cases and 304 deaths. Although the highest attack rates were for young children (2.3%, 7.6%, and 4.5% for children <6, 6-8, and 9-11 months, respectively), persons >15 years of age were highly affected (1.0% and 0.4% for persons 15-19 and >19 years, respectively; 28% of all cases). A survey in 8 districts showed routine coverage of 95.0% for children 12-23 months; 57.9% for children 9-11 months; and 60.7% for children covered during the last supplementary immunization activities in 2008. Vaccine effectiveness was 83.9% for 1 dose and 90.5% for 2 doses. A continuous accumulation of susceptible persons during the past decade probably accounts for this outbreak. Countries en route to measles elimination, such as Malawi, should improve outbreak preparedness. Timeliness and the population chosen are crucial elements for reactive campaigns.

Measles outbreak response immunization is context-specific: insight from the recent experience of Médecins Sans Frontières.

Andrea Minetti and colleagues compare measles outbreak responses from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Malawi and argue that outbreak response strategies should be tailored to local measles epidemiology. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Measles in Democratic Republic of Congo: an outbreak description from Katanga, 2010-2011.

BACKGROUND: The Democratic Republic of Congo experiences regular measles outbreaks. From September 2010, the number of suspected measles cases increased, especially in Katanga province, where Medecins sans Frontieres supported the Ministry of Health in responding to the outbreak by providing free treatment, reinforcing surveillance and implementing non-selective mass vaccination campaigns. Here, we describe the measles outbreak in Katanga province in 2010-2011 and the results of vaccine coverage surveys conducted after the mass campaigns. METHODS: The surveillance system was strengthened in 28 of the 67 health zones of the province and we conducted seven vaccination coverage surveys in 2011. RESULTS: The overall cumulative attack rate was 0.71% and the case fatality ratio was 1.40%. CONCLUSIONS: Early investigation of the age distribution of cases is a key to understanding the epidemic, and should guide the vaccination of priority age groups.

Feasibility of Training Clinical Officers in Point-of-Care Ultrasound for Pediatric Respiratory Diseases in Aweil, South Sudan.

Lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) are the leading cause of deaths in children < 5 years old worldwide, particularly affecting low-resource settings such as Aweil, South Sudan. In these settings, diagnosis can be difficult because of either lack of access to radiography or clinical algorithms that overtreat children with antibiotics who only have viral LRTIs. Point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS) has been applied to LRTIs, but not by nonphysician clinicians, and with limited data from low-resource settings. Our goal was to examine the feasibility of training the mid-level provider cadre clinical officers (COs) in a Médecins Sans Frontières project in South Sudan to perform a POCUS algorithm to differentiate among causes of LRTI. Six COs underwent POCUS training, and each subsequently performed 60 lung POCUS studies on hospitalized pediatric patients < 5 years old with criteria for pneumonia. Two blinded experts, with a tiebreaker expert adjudicating discordant results, served as a reference standard to calculate test performance characteristics, assessed image quality and CO interpretation. The COs performed 360 studies. Reviewers rated 99.1% of the images acceptable and 86.0% CO interpretations appropriate. The inter-rater agreement (κ) between COs and experts for lung consolidation with air bronchograms was 0.73 (0.63-0.82) and for viral LRTI/bronchiolitis was 0.81 (0.74-0.87). It is feasible to train COs in South Sudan to use a POCUS algorithm to diagnose pneumonia and other pulmonary diseases in children < 5 years old.