Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change.

We conducted a model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections between 2010 and 2299 for the northern permafrost region. All models simulating carbon represented soil with depth, a critical structural feature needed to represent the permafrost carbon-climate feedback, but that is not a universal feature of all climate models. Between 2010 and 2299, simulations indicated losses of permafrost between 3 and 5 million km2 for the RCP4.5 climate and between 6 and 16 million km2 for the RCP8.5 climate. For the RCP4.5 projection, cumulative change in soil carbon varied between 66-Pg C (1015-g carbon) loss to 70-Pg C gain. For the RCP8.5 projection, losses in soil carbon varied between 74 and 652 Pg C (mean loss, 341 Pg C). For the RCP4.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were largely responsible for the overall projected net gains in ecosystem carbon by 2299 (8- to 244-Pg C gains). In contrast, for the RCP8.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were not great enough to compensate for the losses of carbon projected by four of the five models; changes in ecosystem carbon ranged from a 641-Pg C loss to a 167-Pg C gain (mean, 208-Pg C loss). The models indicate that substantial net losses of ecosystem carbon would not occur until after 2100. This assessment suggests that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon-climate feedback.

Historical and projected trends in landscape drivers affecting carbon dynamics in Alaska.

Modern climate change in Alaska has resulted in widespread thawing of permafrost, increased fire activity, and extensive changes in vegetation characteristics that have significant consequences for socioecological systems. Despite observations of the heightened sensitivity of these systems to change, there has not been a comprehensive assessment of factors that drive ecosystem changes throughout Alaska. Here we present research that improves our understanding of the main drivers of the spatiotemporal patterns of carbon dynamics using in situ observations, remote sensing data, and an array of modeling techniques. In the last 60 yr, Alaska has seen a large increase in mean annual air temperature (1.7°C), with the greatest warming occurring over winter and spring. Warming trends are projected to continue throughout the 21st century and will likely result in landscape-level changes to ecosystem structure and function. Wetlands, mainly bogs and fens, which are currently estimated to cover 12.5% of the landscape, strongly influence exchange of methane between Alaska's ecosystems and the atmosphere and are expected to be affected by thawing permafrost and shifts in hydrology. Simulations suggest the current proportion of near-surface (within 1 m) and deep (within 5 m) permafrost extent will be reduced by 9-74% and 33-55% by the end of the 21st century, respectively. Since 2000, an average of 678 595 ha/yr was burned, more than twice the annual average during 1950-1999. The largest increase in fire activity is projected for the boreal forest, which could result in a reduction in late-successional spruce forest (8-44%) and an increase in early-successional deciduous forest (25-113%) that would mediate future fire activity and weaken permafrost stability in the region. Climate warming will also affect vegetation communities across arctic regions, where the coverage of deciduous forest could increase (223-620%), shrub tundra may increase (4-21%), and graminoid tundra might decrease (10-24%). This study sheds light on the sensitivity of Alaska's ecosystems to change that has the potential to significantly affect local and regional carbon balance, but more research is needed to improve estimates of land-surface and subsurface properties, and to better account for ecosystem dynamics affected by a myriad of biophysical factors and interactions.

Sensitivity evaluation of the Kudryavtsev permafrost model.

Modeling is an important way to assess current and future permafrost spatial distribution and dynamics, especially in data poor areas like the Arctic region. Here, we evaluate a physics-based analytical model, Kudryavtsev's active layer model, which is widely used because it has relatively few data requirements. This model was recently incorporated into a component modeling toolbox, allowing for coupled modeling of permafrost and geomorphic processes over geological timescales. However, systematic quantitative assessment of the influence of its controlling parameters on permafrost temperature and active layer thickness predictions has not been undertaken before. We investigate the sensitivity of the Kudryavtsev's active layer model by Monte Carlo simulations to generate probability distributions for input parameters and compare predictions with a comprehensive benchmark dataset of in-situ permafrost observations over entire Alaska. Predicted permafrost surface temperature is highly dependent on mean annual air temperature (r = 0.78 on average), annual temperature amplitude (-0.41), and winter-averaged snow thickness (0.30). Uncertainty of predicted permafrost temperature is relatively small (RMSE = 1 °C), when air temperature and snow depth are well constrained. Similarly, RMSE between simulated and observed ALT at stations is ~0.08 m. However, under given air temperature and snow conditions, soil water content bias can significantly affect modeled active layer thickness (RMSE = 0.1 m or 40% of the observed active layer thickness). If soil water content has a large bias, improvements in other parameters may not significantly improve the active layer predictions of the Kudryavtsev's model.

Potential impacts of mercury released from thawing permafrost.

Mercury (Hg) is a naturally occurring element that bonds with organic matter and, when converted to methylmercury, is a potent neurotoxicant. Here we estimate potential future releases of Hg from thawing permafrost for low and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios using a mechanistic model. By 2200, the high emissions scenario shows annual permafrost Hg emissions to the atmosphere comparable to current global anthropogenic emissions. By 2100, simulated Hg concentrations in the Yukon River increase by 14% for the low emissions scenario, but double for the high emissions scenario. Fish Hg concentrations do not exceed United States Environmental Protection Agency guidelines for the low emissions scenario by 2300, but for the high emissions scenario, fish in the Yukon River exceed EPA guidelines by 2050. Our results indicate minimal impacts to Hg concentrations in water and fish for the low emissions scenario and high impacts for the high emissions scenario.

Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements.

Arctic feedbacks accelerate climate change through carbon releases from thawing permafrost and higher solar absorption from reductions in the surface albedo, following loss of sea ice and land snow. Here, we include dynamic emulators of complex physical models in the integrated assessment model PAGE-ICE to explore nonlinear transitions in the Arctic feedbacks and their subsequent impacts on the global climate and economy under the Paris Agreement scenarios. The permafrost feedback is increasingly positive in warmer climates, while the albedo feedback weakens as the ice and snow melt. Combined, these two factors lead to significant increases in the mean discounted economic effect of climate change: +4.0% ($24.8 trillion) under the 1.5 °C scenario, +5.5% ($33.8 trillion) under the 2 °C scenario, and +4.8% ($66.9 trillion) under mitigation levels consistent with the current national pledges. Considering the nonlinear Arctic feedbacks makes the 1.5 °C target marginally more economically attractive than the 2 °C target, although both are statistically equivalent.

Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region.

Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter1-3, greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO2)4. However, the amount of CO2 released in winter is highly uncertain and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or by empirically-based estimates5,6. Here we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO2 flux from arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1662 Tg C yr-1 from the permafrost region during the winter season (October through April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (-1032 Tg C yr-1). Extending model predictions to warmer conditions in 2100 indicates that winter CO2 emissions will increase 17% under a moderate mitigation scenario-Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5-and 41% under business-as-usual emissions scenario-RCP 8.5. Our results provide a new baseline for winter CO2 emissions from northern terrestrial regions and indicate that enhanced soil CO2 loss due to winter warming may offset growing season carbon uptake under future climatic conditions.