Human TBK1 deficiency leads to autoinflammation driven by TNF-induced cell death.

TANK binding kinase 1 (TBK1) regulates IFN-I, NF-κB, and TNF-induced RIPK1-dependent cell death (RCD). In mice, biallelic loss of TBK1 is embryonically lethal. We discovered four humans, ages 32, 26, 7, and 8 from three unrelated consanguineous families with homozygous loss-of-function mutations in TBK1. All four patients suffer from chronic and systemic autoinflammation, but not severe viral infections. We demonstrate that TBK1 loss results in hypomorphic but sufficient IFN-I induction via RIG-I/MDA5, while the system retains near intact IL-6 induction through NF-κB. Autoinflammation is driven by TNF-induced RCD as patient-derived fibroblasts experienced higher rates of necroptosis in vitro, and CC3 was elevated in peripheral blood ex vivo. Treatment with anti-TNF dampened the baseline circulating inflammatory profile and ameliorated the clinical condition in vivo. These findings highlight the plasticity of the IFN-I response and underscore a cardinal role for TBK1 in the regulation of RCD.

Evolutionary trajectories of small cell lung cancer under therapy.

The evolutionary processes that underlie the marked sensitivity of small cell lung cancer (SCLC) to chemotherapy and rapid relapse are unknown1-3. Here we determined tumour phylogenies at diagnosis and throughout chemotherapy and immunotherapy by multiregion sequencing of 160 tumours from 65 patients. Treatment-naive SCLC exhibited clonal homogeneity at distinct tumour sites, whereas first-line platinum-based chemotherapy led to a burst in genomic intratumour heterogeneity and spatial clonal diversity. We observed branched evolution and a shift to ancestral clones underlying tumour relapse. Effective radio- or immunotherapy induced a re-expansion of founder clones with acquired genomic damage from first-line chemotherapy. Whereas TP53 and RB1 alterations were exclusively part of the common ancestor, MYC family amplifications were frequently not constituents of the founder clone. At relapse, emerging subclonal mutations affected key genes associated with SCLC biology, and tumours harbouring clonal CREBBP/EP300 alterations underwent genome duplications. Gene-damaging TP53 alterations and co-alterations of TP53 missense mutations with TP73, CREBBP/EP300 or FMN2 were significantly associated with shorter disease relapse following chemotherapy. In summary, we uncover key processes of the genomic evolution of SCLC under therapy, identify the common ancestor as the source of clonal diversity at relapse and show central genomic patterns associated with sensitivity and resistance to chemotherapy.

Reductive carboxylation epigenetically instructs T cell differentiation.

Protective immunity against pathogens or cancer is mediated by the activation and clonal expansion of antigen-specific naive T cells into effector T cells. To sustain their rapid proliferation and effector functions, naive T cells switch their quiescent metabolism to an anabolic metabolism through increased levels of aerobic glycolysis, but also through mitochondrial metabolism and oxidative phosphorylation, generating energy and signalling molecules1-3. However, how that metabolic rewiring drives and defines the differentiation of T cells remains unclear. Here we show that proliferating effector CD8+ T cells reductively carboxylate glutamine through the mitochondrial enzyme isocitrate dehydrogenase 2 (IDH2). Notably, deletion of the gene encoding IDH2 does not impair the proliferation of T cells nor their effector function, but promotes the differentiation of memory CD8+ T cells. Accordingly, inhibiting IDH2 during ex vivo manufacturing of chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T cells induces features of memory T cells and enhances antitumour activity in melanoma, leukaemia and multiple myeloma. Mechanistically, inhibition of IDH2 activates compensating metabolic pathways that cause a disequilibrium in metabolites regulating histone-modifying enzymes, and this maintains chromatin accessibility at genes that are required for the differentiation of memory T cells. These findings show that reductive carboxylation in CD8+ T cells is dispensable for their effector response and proliferation, but that it mainly produces a pattern of metabolites that epigenetically locks CD8+ T cells into a terminal effector differentiation program. Blocking this metabolic route allows the increased formation of memory T cells, which could be exploited to optimize the therapeutic efficacy of CAR T cells.

Rational design of a new antibiotic class for drug-resistant infections.

The development of new antibiotics to treat infections caused by drug-resistant Gram-negative pathogens is of paramount importance as antibiotic resistance continues to increase worldwide1. Here we describe a strategy for the rational design of diazabicyclooctane inhibitors of penicillin-binding proteins from Gram-negative bacteria to overcome multiple mechanisms of resistance, including ß-lactamase enzymes, stringent response and outer membrane permeation. Diazabicyclooctane inhibitors retain activity in the presence of ß-lactamases, the primary resistance mechanism associated with ß-lactam therapy in Gram-negative bacteria2,3. Although the target spectrum of an initial lead was successfully re-engineered to gain in vivo efficacy, its ability to permeate across bacterial outer membranes was insufficient for further development. Notably, the features that enhanced target potency were found to preclude compound uptake. An improved optimization strategy leveraged porin permeation properties concomitant with biochemical potency in the lead-optimization stage. This resulted in ETX0462, which has potent in vitro and in vivo activity against Pseudomonas aeruginosa plus all other Gram-negative ESKAPE pathogens, Stenotrophomonas maltophilia and biothreat pathogens. These attributes, along with a favourable preclinical safety profile, hold promise for the successful clinical development of the first novel Gram-negative chemotype to treat life-threatening antibiotic-resistant infections in more than 25 years.

Tumor circadian clock strength influences metastatic potential and predicts patient prognosis in luminal A breast cancer.

Studies in shift workers and model organisms link circadian disruption to breast cancer. However, molecular circadian rhythms in noncancerous and cancerous human breast tissues and their clinical relevance are largely unknown. We reconstructed rhythms informatically, integrating locally collected, time-stamped biopsies with public datasets. For noncancerous breast tissue, inflammatory, epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT), and estrogen responsiveness pathways show circadian modulation. Among tumors, clock correlation analysis demonstrates subtype-specific changes in circadian organization. Luminal A organoids and informatic ordering of luminal A samples exhibit continued, albeit dampened and reprogrammed rhythms. However, CYCLOPS magnitude, a measure of global rhythm strength, varied widely among luminal A samples. Cycling of EMT pathway genes was markedly increased in high-magnitude luminal A tumors. Surprisingly, patients with high-magnitude tumors had reduced 5-y survival. Correspondingly, 3D luminal A cultures show reduced invasion following molecular clock disruption. This study links subtype-specific circadian disruption in breast cancer to EMT, metastatic potential, and prognosis.

The impact of cell size on morphogen gradient precision.

Tissue patterning during embryonic development is remarkably precise. Here, we numerically determine the impact of the cell diameter, gradient length and the morphogen source on the variability of morphogen gradients. We show that the positional error increases with the gradient length relative to the size of the morphogen source, and with the square root of the cell diameter and the readout position. We provide theoretical explanations for these relationships, and show that they enable high patterning precision over developmental time for readouts that scale with expanding tissue domains, as observed in the Drosophila wing disc. Our analysis suggests that epithelial tissues generally achieve higher patterning precision with small cross-sectional cell areas. An extensive survey of measured apical cell areas shows that they are indeed small in developing tissues that are patterned by morphogen gradients. Enhanced precision may thus have led to the emergence of pseudostratification in epithelia, a phenomenon for which the evolutionary benefit had so far remained elusive.

T-bet suppresses proliferation of malignant B cells in chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

ABSTRACT: The T-box transcription factor T-bet is known as a master regulator of the T-cell response but its role in malignant B cells has not been sufficiently explored. Here, we conducted single-cell resolved multi-omics analyses of malignant B cells from patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) and studied a CLL mouse model with a genetic knockout of Tbx21. We found that T-bet acts as a tumor suppressor in malignant B cells by decreasing their proliferation rate. NF-κB activity, induced by inflammatory signals provided by the microenvironment, triggered T-bet expression, which affected promoter-proximal and distal chromatin coaccessibility and controlled a specific gene signature by mainly suppressing transcription. Gene set enrichment analysis identified a positive regulation of interferon signaling and negative control of proliferation by T-bet. In line, we showed that T-bet represses cell cycling and is associated with longer overall survival of patients with CLL. Our study uncovered a novel tumor suppressive role of T-bet in malignant B cells via its regulation of inflammatory processes and cell cycling, which has implications for the stratification and therapy of patients with CLL. Linking T-bet activity to inflammation explains the good prognostic role of genetic alterations in the inflammatory signaling pathways in CLL.

Time to Change: A Systems Pharmacology Approach to Disentangle Mechanisms of Drug-Induced Mitochondrial Toxicity.

An increasing number of commonly prescribed drugs are known to interfere with mitochondrial function, which is associated with almost half of all Food and Drug Administration black box warnings, a variety of drug withdrawals, and attrition of drug candidates. This can mainly be attributed to a historic lack of sensitive and specific assays to identify the mechanisms underlying mitochondrial toxicity during drug development. In the last decade, a better understanding of drug-induced mitochondrial dysfunction has been achieved by network-based and structure-based systems pharmacological approaches. Here, we propose the implementation of a tiered systems pharmacology approach to detect adverse mitochondrial drug effects during preclinical drug development, which is based on a toolset developed to study inherited mitochondrial disease. This includes phenotypic characterization, profiling of key metabolic alterations, mechanistic studies, and functional in vitro and in vivo studies. Combined with binding pocket similarity comparisons and bottom-up as well as top-down metabolic network modeling, this tiered approach enables identification of mechanisms underlying drug-induced mitochondrial dysfunction. After validation of these off-target mechanisms, drug candidates can be adjusted to minimize mitochondrial activity. Implementing such a tiered systems pharmacology approach could lead to a more efficient drug development trajectory due to lower drug attrition rates and ultimately contribute to the development of safer drugs. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Many commonly prescribed drugs adversely affect mitochondrial function, which can be detected using phenotypic assays. However, these methods provide only limited insight into the underlying mechanisms. In recent years, a better understanding of drug-induced mitochondrial dysfunction has been achieved by network-based and structure-based system pharmacological approaches. Their implementation in preclinical drug development could reduce the number of drug failures, contributing to safer drug design.

Zonal human hepatocytes are differentially permissive to Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasites.

Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) is a major cause of human malaria and is transmitted by infected Anopheles mosquitoes. The initial asymptomatic infection is characterized by parasite invasion of hepatocytes, followed by massive replication generating schizonts with blood-infective merozoites. Hepatocytes can be categorized by their zonal location and metabolic functions within a liver lobule. To understand specific host conditions that affect infectivity, we studied Pf parasite liver stage development in relation to the metabolic heterogeneity of fresh human hepatocytes. We found selective preference of different Pf strains for a minority of hepatocytes, which are characterized by the particular presence of glutamine synthetase (hGS). Schizont growth is significantly enhanced by hGS uptake early in development, showcasing a novel import system. In conclusion, Pf development is strongly determined by the differential metabolic status in hepatocyte subtypes. These findings underscore the importance of detailed understanding of hepatocyte host-Pf interactions and may delineate novel pathways for intervention strategies.

BRAF V600E is associated with higher incidence of second cancers in adults with Langerhans cell histiocytosis.

In this retrospective study, BRAF mutation status did not correlate with disease extent or (event-free) survival in 156 adults with Langerhans cell histiocytosis. BRAFV600E was associated with an increased incidence of second malignancies, often comprising hematological cancers, which may be clonally related.

Statistical signature of electrobreakdown in graphene nanojunctions.

Controlled electrobreakdown of graphene is important for the fabrication of stable nanometer-size tunnel gaps, large-scale graphene quantum dots, and nanoscale resistive switches, etc. However, owing to the complex thermal, electronic, and electrochemical processes at the nanoscale that dictate the rupture of graphene, it is difficult to generate conclusions from individual devices. We describe here a way to explore the statistical signature of the graphene electrobreakdown process. Such analysis tells us that feedback-controlled electrobreakdown of graphene in the air first shows signs of joule heating-induced cleaning followed by rupturing of the graphene lattice that is manifested by the lowering of its conductance. We show that when the conductance of the graphene becomes smaller than around 0.1 G0, the effective graphene notch width starts to decrease exponentially slower with time. Further, we show how this signature gets modified as we change the environment and or the substrate. Using statistical analysis, we show that the electrobreakdown under a high vacuum could lead to substrate modification and resistive-switching behavior, without the application of any electroforming voltage. This is attributed to the formation of a semiconducting filament that makes a Schottky barrier with the graphene. We also provide here the statistically extracted Schottky barrier threshold voltages for various substrate studies. Such analysis not only gives a better understanding of the electrobreakdown of graphene but also can serve as a tool in the future for single-molecule diagnostics.

The photobiology of the human circadian clock.

SignificanceThe function of our biological clock is dependent on environmental light. Rodent studies have shown that there are multiple colors that affect the clock, but indirect measures in humans suggest blue light is key. We performed functional MRI studies in human subjects with unprecedented spatial resolution to investigate color sensitivity of our clock. Here, we show that narrowband blue, green, and orange light were all effective in changing neuronal activity of the clock. While the clock of nocturnal rodents is excited by light, the human clock responds with a decrease in neuronal activity as indicated by a negative BOLD response. The sensitivity of the clock to multiple colors should be integrated in light therapy aimed to strengthen our 24-h rhythms.

Critical Role of Nonrigid Unit and Spiral Acoustical Modes in Designing Colossal Negative Thermal Expansion.

Exploring the relationship between thermal expansion and structural complexity is a challenging topic in the study of modern materials where volume stability is required. This work reports a new family of negative thermal expansion (NTE) materials, AM(CN)4 with A = Li and Na and M = B, Al, Ga, and In. Here, the compounds of LiB(CN)4 and NaB(CN)4 were only synthesized; others were purely computationally studied. A critical role of nonrigid vibrational modes and spiral acoustical modes has been identified in NaB(CN)4. This understanding has been exploited to design the colossal NTE materials of NaM(CN)4 (M = Al, Ga, In). A joint study involving synchrotron X-ray diffraction, Raman spectroscopy, and first-principles calculations has been conducted to investigate the thermal expansion mechanism. It has been found that the A atoms can either increase the symmetry of the crystal structure, inducing stronger NTE, or lower the crystal symmetry, thus resulting in positive thermal expansion. Conversely, the M-site atoms do not affect the crystal structure. However, as the radius of the M atoms increases, the ionic nature of the C-M bonds strengthens and the CN vibrations become more flexible, thereby enhancing the NTE behavior. This study provides new insights to aid in the discovery and design of novel NTE materials and the control of thermal expansion.

Ultrastructural Examination of Glomerular Fibrillary Deposits in Diabetic Nephropathy.

Glomerular fibrillary deposits have occasionally been reported in diabetic nephropathy, but no large-scale, ultrastructural evaluation of these deposits has been reported so far. Here, we report our study of glomerular non-Congophilic, DnaJ homolog subfamily B member 9 negative fibrillary deposits in diabetic nephropathy as characterized by transmission electron microscopy. Clinical data from 55 patients with biopsy-confirmed diabetic nephropathy and 18 healthy living donors were reviewed, and their biopsies were evaluated by light microscopy, immunofluorescence, and electron microscopy. Small fibrillary structures with a diameter of 10 ± 1 nm were present in all cases with diabetic nephropathy, regardless of the histologic class. In addition, glomerular fibrillary structures with a diameter of 23 ± 5 nm or 30 ± 7 nm were present in 35 cases. Interestingly, especially the small- and medium-sized fibrils, usually without apparent organization, were comparable with fibrils in fibrillary glomerulopathy. We conclude that glomerular fibrillary deposits occur far more commonly in renal biopsies of patients with diabetic nephropathy than generally considered. This is an important finding because their similarity to fibrils in fibrillary glomerulonephritis may complicate the histologic diagnostic process, especially in cases of overlapping clinical manifestations. Therefore, when encountering fibrillary deposits on electron microscopy, it is important to consider diabetic nephropathy as an alternative diagnosis.

Reasons for non-feasibility of therapeutic drug monitoring of oral targeted therapies in oncology - an analysis of the closed cohorts of a multicentre prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) - performing dose adjustments based on measured drug levels and established pharmacokinetic (PK) targets - could optimise treatment with drugs that show large interpatient variability in exposure. We evaluated the feasibility of TDM for multiple oral targeted therapies. Here we report on drugs for which routine TDM is not feasible. METHODS: We evaluated drug cohorts from the Dutch Pharmacology Oncology Group - TDM study. Based on PK levels taken at pre-specified time points, PK-guided interventions were performed. Feasibility of TDM was evaluated, and based on the success and practicability of TDM, cohorts could be closed. RESULTS: For 10 out of 24 cohorts TDM was not feasible and inclusion was closed. A high incidence of adverse events resulted in closing the cabozantinib, dabrafenib/trametinib, everolimus, regorafenib and vismodegib cohort. The enzalutamide and erlotinib cohorts were closed because almost all PK levels were above target. Other, non-pharmacological reasons led to closing the palbociclib, olaparib and tamoxifen cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Although TDM could help personalising treatment for many drugs, the above-mentioned reasons can influence its feasibility, usefulness and clinical applicability. Therefore, routine TDM is not advised for cabozantinib, dabrafenib/trametinib, enzalutamide, erlotinib, everolimus, regorafenib and vismodegib. Nonetheless, TDM remains valuable for individual clinical decisions.

Regional spread of an atypical ESBL-producing Escherichia coli ST131H89 clone among different human and environmental reservoirs in Western Switzerland.

We describe the inter-regional spread of a novel ESBL-producing Escherichia coli subclone (ST131H89) in long-term care facility residents, general population, and environmental water sources in Western Switzerland between 2017 and 2020. The study highlights the importance of molecular surveillance for tracking emerging antibiotic-resistant pathogens in healthcare and community settings.

Efficacy and Safety of Panitumumab in Patients With RAF/RAS-Wild-Type Glioblastoma: Results From the Drug Rediscovery Protocol.

BACKGROUND: The prognosis of malignant primary high-grade brain tumors, predominantly glioblastomas, is poor despite intensive multimodality treatment options. In more than 50% of patients with glioblastomas, potentially targetable mutations are present, including rearrangements, altered splicing, and/or focal amplifications of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) by signaling through the RAF/RAS pathway. We studied whether treatment with the clinically available anti-EGFR monoclonal antibody panitumumab provides clinical benefit for patients with RAF/RAS-wild-type (wt) glioblastomas in the Drug Rediscovery Protocol (DRUP). METHODS: Patients with progression of treatment refractory RAF/RASwt glioblastoma were included for treatment with panitumumab in DRUP when measurable according to RANO criteria. The primary endpoints of this study are clinical benefit (CB: defined as confirmed objective response [OR] or stable disease [SD] ≥ 16 weeks) and safety. Patients were enrolled using a Simon-like 2-stage model, with 8 patients in stage 1 and up to 24 patients in stage 2 if at least 1 in 8 patients had CB in stage 1. RESULTS: Between 03-2018 and 02-2022, 24 evaluable patients were treated. CB was observed in 5 patients (21%), including 2 patients with partial response (8.3%) and 3 patients with SD ≥ 16 weeks (12.5%). After median follow-up of 15 months, median progression-free survival and overall survival were 1.7 months (95% CI 1.6-2.1 months) and 4.5 months (95% CI 2.9-8.6 months), respectively. No unexpected toxicities were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Panitumumab treatment provides limited CB in patients with recurrent RAF/RASwt glioblastoma precluding further development of this therapeutic strategy.

Randomized Trial of Fetal Surgery for Severe Left Diaphragmatic Hernia.

BACKGROUND: Observational studies have shown that fetoscopic endoluminal tracheal occlusion (FETO) has been associated with increased survival among infants with severe pulmonary hypoplasia due to isolated congenital diaphragmatic hernia on the left side, but data from randomized trials are lacking. METHODS: In this open-label trial conducted at centers with experience in FETO and other types of prenatal surgery, we randomly assigned, in a 1:1 ratio, women carrying singleton fetuses with severe isolated congenital diaphragmatic hernia on the left side to FETO at 27 to 29 weeks of gestation or expectant care. Both treatments were followed by standardized postnatal care. The primary outcome was infant survival to discharge from the neonatal intensive care unit. We used a group-sequential design with five prespecified interim analyses for superiority, with a maximum sample size of 116 women. RESULTS: The trial was stopped early for efficacy after the third interim analysis. In an intention-to-treat analysis that included 80 women, 40% of infants (16 of 40) in the FETO group survived to discharge, as compared with 15% (6 of 40) in the expectant care group (relative risk, 2.67; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.22 to 6.11; two-sided P = 0.009). Survival to 6 months of age was identical to the survival to discharge (relative risk, 2.67; 95% CI, 1.22 to 6.11). The incidence of preterm, prelabor rupture of membranes was higher among women in the FETO group than among those in the expectant care group (47% vs. 11%; relative risk, 4.51; 95% CI, 1.83 to 11.9), as was the incidence of preterm birth (75% vs. 29%; relative risk, 2.59; 95% CI, 1.59 to 4.52). One neonatal death occurred after emergency delivery for placental laceration from fetoscopic balloon removal, and one neonatal death occurred because of failed balloon removal. In an analysis that included 11 additional participants with data that were available after the trial was stopped, survival to discharge was 36% among infants in the FETO group and 14% among those in the expectant care group (relative risk, 2.65; 95% CI, 1.21 to 6.09). CONCLUSIONS: In fetuses with isolated severe congenital diaphragmatic hernia on the left side, FETO performed at 27 to 29 weeks of gestation resulted in a significant benefit over expectant care with respect to survival to discharge, and this benefit was sustained to 6 months of age. FETO increased the risks of preterm, prelabor rupture of membranes and preterm birth. (Funded by the European Commission and others; TOTAL ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01240057.).

Randomized Trial of Fetal Surgery for Moderate Left Diaphragmatic Hernia.

BACKGROUND: Fetoscopic endoluminal tracheal occlusion (FETO) has been associated with increased postnatal survival among infants with severe pulmonary hypoplasia due to isolated congenital diaphragmatic hernia on the left side, but data are lacking to inform its effects in infants with moderate disease. METHODS: In this open-label trial conducted at many centers with experience in FETO and other types of prenatal surgery, we randomly assigned, in a 1:1 ratio, women carrying singleton fetuses with a moderate isolated congenital diaphragmatic hernia on the left side to FETO at 30 to 32 weeks of gestation or expectant care. Both treatments were followed by standardized postnatal care. The primary outcomes were infant survival to discharge from a neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) and survival without oxygen supplementation at 6 months of age. RESULTS: In an intention-to-treat analysis involving 196 women, 62 of 98 infants in the FETO group (63%) and 49 of 98 infants in the expectant care group (50%) survived to discharge (relative risk , 1.27; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.99 to 1.63; two-sided P = 0.06). At 6 months of age, 53 of 98 infants (54%) in the FETO group and 43 of 98 infants (44%) in the expectant care group were alive without oxygen supplementation (relative risk, 1.23; 95% CI, 0.93 to 1.65). The incidence of preterm, prelabor rupture of membranes was higher among women in the FETO group than among those in the expectant care group (44% vs. 12%; relative risk, 3.79; 95% CI, 2.13 to 6.91), as was the incidence of preterm birth (64% vs. 22%, respectively; relative risk, 2.86; 95% CI, 1.94 to 4.34), but FETO was not associated with any other serious maternal complications. There were two spontaneous fetal deaths (one in each group) without obvious cause and one neonatal death that was associated with balloon removal. CONCLUSIONS: This trial involving fetuses with moderate congenital diaphragmatic hernia on the left side did not show a significant benefit of FETO performed at 30 to 32 weeks of gestation over expectant care with respect to survival to discharge or the need for oxygen supplementation at 6 months. FETO increased the risks of preterm, prelabor rupture of membranes and preterm birth. (Funded by the European Commission and others; TOTAL ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00763737.).

Development and validation of a patient-level model to predict dementia across a network of observational databases.

BACKGROUND: A prediction model can be a useful tool to quantify the risk of a patient developing dementia in the next years and take risk-factor-targeted intervention. Numerous dementia prediction models have been developed, but few have been externally validated, likely limiting their clinical uptake. In our previous work, we had limited success in externally validating some of these existing models due to inadequate reporting. As a result, we are compelled to develop and externally validate novel models to predict dementia in the general population across a network of observational databases. We assess regularization methods to obtain parsimonious models that are of lower complexity and easier to implement. METHODS: Logistic regression models were developed across a network of five observational databases with electronic health records (EHRs) and claims data to predict 5-year dementia risk in persons aged 55-84. The regularization methods L1 and Broken Adaptive Ridge (BAR) as well as three candidate predictor sets to optimize prediction performance were assessed. The predictor sets include a baseline set using only age and sex, a full set including all available candidate predictors, and a phenotype set which includes a limited number of clinically relevant predictors. RESULTS: BAR can be used for variable selection, outperforming L1 when a parsimonious model is desired. Adding candidate predictors for disease diagnosis and drug exposure generally improves the performance of baseline models using only age and sex. While a model trained on German EHR data saw an increase in AUROC from 0.74 to 0.83 with additional predictors, a model trained on US EHR data showed only minimal improvement from 0.79 to 0.81 AUROC. Nevertheless, the latter model developed using BAR regularization on the clinically relevant predictor set was ultimately chosen as best performing model as it demonstrated more consistent external validation performance and improved calibration. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and externally validated patient-level models to predict dementia. Our results show that although dementia prediction is highly driven by demographic age, adding predictors based on condition diagnoses and drug exposures further improves prediction performance. BAR regularization outperforms L1 regularization to yield the most parsimonious yet still well-performing prediction model for dementia.