Impact of Climate Variables Change on the Yield of Wheat and Rice Crops in Iran (Application of Stochastic Model Based on Monte Carlo Simulation).

This study aims to predict the yield of two strategic crops in Iran; wheat and rice, under climate scenarios that indicate probable changes in climate variables. It implemented by a stochastic model based on the Monte Carlo method. This model were estimated based on historical data from 1988 to 2019 for precipitation and temperature provided possible changes in the pattern of and their probability of occurrence. The results show that rain-fed wheat, irrigated wheat and rice yields decrease by 42%, 29% and 21% respectively in the average scenario. Therefore, policy makers should try to make the right decisions to increase the production of the country's strategic crops. R&D management to introduce drought-tolerant varieties, use of modern irrigation systems and use of low-volume irrigation methods are some of the proposed solutions to mitigate the effects of climate change.

Economic evaluation of the climate changes on food security in Iran: application of CGE model.

The present study aims to examine the economic impact of changing climate variables on two components of food security in Iran: availability and access to food. Wheat and rice, the two most important foods in the country, were considered representatives of food security. A CGE model was developed to achieve the research goals. In this context, a stochastic model based on Monte Carlo simulation was used to provide three scenarios (best, average, and worst) indicating probable changes in climate variables. It is important to model the problem of changing climatic variables for irrigated crops, as groundwater resource depletion and restrictions on extraction from Iranian aquifers reduce planted areas and yields. Therefore, this study applies this model to both rain-fed and irrigated crops, whereas studies in the literature only evaluate rain-fed crops. Food security will face serious challenges as food supplies, and consumption of goods and services are declining in average and worst scenarios, according to findings. Consequently, the negative impact of climate change on food security and people's livelihoods requires a review of the policies implemented within the country. Effective solutions include research and development to introduce drought-tolerant varieties and adopt appropriate strategies to adapt to climate change. Improving the incomes of farmers is one solution to mitigating the impacts of climate change.

Screening for depression in hospitalized pediatric patients.

OBJECTIVE: In chronically ill children who are hospitalized, many mood changes occur. For example, in children with cancer or renal failure, prolonged hospitalization and chemotherapy can lead to depression. With the improved survival of childhood malignancies, the effect of treatment on child's psychosocial well-being becomes increasingly relevant. In this study, we examined the prevalence of depression in hospitalized children with chronic and acute conditions in Dr Sheikh Pediatrics Hospital in Mashhad. MATERIALS & METHODS: After receiving the approval from the Ethics Committee of Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, we did this cross-sectional descriptive study, from April to June 2012 in Dr Sheikh Pediatric Hospital in Mashhad. Ninety children, between 8 to 16 years, were screened for depression. The sampling method was census. Children with a history of depressive or other mental disorders were excluded. Three groups of children (children with chronic renal disease, malignancy, and acute disease) were evaluated for depression using standard Children Depression Inventory Questionnaire (CDI). Two specifically trained nurses filled out the questionnaires at patients' bedside under the supervision of a psychiatrist. Depression scores were then analyzed by SPSS software. RESULTS: Of 90 children, 43(47.7%) were male and 47(52.2%) were female. The Children's mean age was 11±2.3 years, and the mean length of hospitalization was 8±5.3 days. Depression was detected in various degrees in 63% of patients (N=57), and 36.6% of children (N=32) had no symptoms of depression. Severe depression was not seen in any of the patients with acute illness. More than half of patients with cancer and chronic kidney disease had moderate to severe depression. There was a significant statistical relationship between the duration of illness and severity of depression. There was also a significant correlation between severity of depression and frequency of hospitalization. Children who had been hospitalized more than 3 times in the previous year, experienced more severe levels of depression. We also found a significant correlation between pubertal age and severity of depression in patients with cancers and chronic renal failure. CONCLUSION: Children who are hospitalized due to chronic conditions are at a higher risk for mood disorders in comparison with the ones with acute conditions. It is therefore advisable to consider more practical plans to improve the care for hospitalized children's mental health.