RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) are at high risk for developing postoperative delirium (POD). A simple prediction rule may benefit patients from early identification of POD followed by adequate preventive strategies. The purpose of the current study was to develop and validate a POD prediction rule for patients undergoing CABG (POD-CABG), by considering all possible perioperative factors. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, patients who underwent first elective isolated CABG were continuously enrolled from May 2014 to November 2015 in a tertiary hospital. Delirium was assessed using the Confusion Assessment Method for Intensive Care Unit. Patients' perioperative risk factors were collected through interviews and review of medical records. The area under receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to assess the overall performance of the predictive rule. RESULTS: A total of 242 and 148 patients were enrolled in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. Multiple logistic regression analysis identified seven variables that were independently associated with POD: age (≥65 years), gender (female), history of myocardial infarction and diabetes mellitus, postoperative atrial fibrillation, the use of intra-aortic balloon pump, and serum interleukin-6 ≥478 pg/ml at 18 hours after surgery. The AUC of the POD-CABG was 0.84 (95% CI, 0.79-0.90) in the derivation cohort, and was 0.86 (95% CI, 0.80-0.91) after bootstrap resampling. The AUC was 0.81 (95% CI, 0.73-0.88) after the POD-CABG was applied to the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The POD-CABG with inclusion of interleukin-6 demonstrated good performance in predicting POD.