Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) Predicts Adverse Outcomes Among Hospitalized Patients with Chronic Pancreatitis.

INTRODUCTION: The prevalence of frailty among patients with chronic pancreatitis (CP) and its impact on clinical outcomes is unclear. We report the impact of frailty on mortality, readmission rates, and healthcare utilization among patients with chronic pancreatitis in the United States. METHODS: We extracted data on patients hospitalized with a primary or secondary diagnosis of CP from the Nationwide Readmissions Database 2019. We applied a previously validated hospital frailty risk scoring system to classify CP patients into frail and non-frail on index hospitalization and compared the characteristics of frail and non-frail patients. We studied the impact of frailty on mortality, readmission, and healthcare utilization. RESULTS: Of 56,072 patients with CP, 40.78% of patients were classified as frail. Frail patients experienced a higher rate of unplanned and preventable hospitalizations. Almost two-thirds of frail patients were younger than 65, and one-third had no or only single comorbidity. On multivariate analysis, frailty was independently associated with two times higher mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 2.05; 95% CI 1.7-2.5). Frailty was also associated with a higher risk of all-cause readmission with an aHR of 1.07; (95% CI 1.03-1.1). Frail patients experienced a longer length of stay, higher hospitalization costs, and hospitalization charges. Infectious causes were the most common cause of readmission among frail patients compared to acute pancreatitis among non-frail patients. CONCLUSIONS: Frailty is independently associated with higher mortality, readmission rates, and healthcare utilization among patients with chronic pancreatitis in the US.

Early infection is an independent risk factor for increased mortality in patients with culture-confirmed infected pancreatic necrosis.

BACKGROUND: Mortality in infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) is dynamic over the course of the disease, with type and timing of interventions as well as persistent organ failure being key determinants. The timing of infection onset and how it pertains to mortality is not well defined. OBJECTIVES: To determine the association between mortality and the development of early IPN. METHODS: International multicenter retrospective cohort study of patients with IPN, confirmed by a positive microbial culture from (peri) pancreatic collections. The association between timing of infection onset, timing of interventions and mortality were assessed using Cox regression analyses. RESULTS: A total of 743 patients from 19 centers across 3 continents with culture-confirmed IPN from 2000 to 2016 were evaluated, mortality rate was 20.9% (155/734). Early infection was associated with a higher mortality, when early infection occurred within the first 4 weeks from presentation with acute pancreatitis. After adjusting for comorbidity, advanced age, organ failure, enteral nutrition and parenteral nutrition, early infection (≤4 weeks) and early open surgery (≤4 weeks) were associated with increased mortality [HR: 2.45 (95% CI: 1.63-3.67), p < 0.001 and HR: 4.88 (95% CI: 1.70-13.98), p = 0.003, respectively]. There was no association between late open surgery, early or late minimally invasive surgery, early or late percutaneous drainage with mortality (p > 0.05). CONCLUSION: Early infection was associated with increased mortality, independent of interventions. Early surgery remains a strong predictor of excess mortality.

Characteristics of 30-Day All-Cause Hospital Readmissions Among Patients with Acute Pancreatitis and Substance Use.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Previous studies on healthcare resource utilization and 30-day readmission risks among patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) have focused upon opioid and alcohol use. The data on other substance types are lacking. In this study we aim to estimate the 30-day readmission rates, predictors of readmission, impact of readmission on patient outcomes and resulting economic burden among patients with AP and substance use in the USA. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study, based upon data from 2017 National Readmission Database of adult patients with AP and substance use (alcohol in combination, opioid, cannabis, cocaine, sedatives, other stimulants, other hallucinogens, other psychoactive, inhalant and miscellaneous). We estimated the 30-day readmission rates and predictors of 30-day readmission. RESULTS: Among 25,795 eligible patients, most were male, belonged to the lower income quartile, resided in the urban facility and had a Charlson comorbidity score of 0 or 1. The use of a combination of substances was the most common in 17,265 (66.9%) patients followed by only opioids in 4691 (18.2%) patients and only marijuana in 3839 (14.9%) patients. A total of 14.6% patients were readmitted within 30 days after discharge for non-elective causes with the highest risk of readmission within the 1st week after discharge with 5.2% readmissions. Among top ten causes of readmission, most of the principal diagnosis were related to AP in 53.1%. Compared to index admission, readmitted patients had significantly higher rates of acute cardiac failure, shock, and higher in-hospital mortality rate. Overall, readmission attributed to an additional 17,801 days of hospitalization resulting in a total of $150 million in hospitalization charges and $36 million in hospitalization costs in 2017. On multivariate analysis, chronic pancreatitis, self-discharge against medical advice, treatment at the highest volume centers, higher Charlson comorbidity index, increasing length of stay and severe disease were associated with higher odds of readmission while female gender and private insurance were associated with lower odds. CONCLUSION: Readmission was associated with higher morbidity and in-hospital mortality among patients with AP and substance use and resulted in a significant monetary burden on the US healthcare system. Several factors identified in this study may be useful for categorizing patients at higher risk of readmission warranting special attention during discharge planning.

Provider type influences adherence to lifestyle changes in chronic pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: /Objectives: Alcohol and smoking cessation are recommended in chronic pancreatitis. The aim of this study is to measure the rates of alcohol and smoking cessation counselling among providers and adherence to recommendations. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of chronic pancreatitis patients at a tertiary hospital. Provider types were defined as primary care (PCP), gastroenterologist, or pancreas specialist. Pairwise comparisons and multivariable analysis were conducted to assess the relation between provider type and smoking/alcohol cessation. RESULTS: Of 256 patients with chronic pancreatitis, 142 (55.5%) consumed alcohol and 130 (91.5%) were advised to stop. Alcohol cessation was advised to 88.9, 96.0 and 92.5% of patients followed by PCP, gastroenterologists and pancreas specialists, respectively. Sixty-one patients (46.9%) were compliant with the recommendation: 31.3, 44.0 and 54.1% of patients followed by PCP, gastroenterologists and pancreas specialists, respectively (Pairwise comparisons PCP vs Pancreas: p = 0.03, others nonsignificant). In multivariable analysis, patients followed by pancreas specialists were more likely to adhere to alcohol cessation recommendation compared to those followed by PCP (OR = 4.31, CI 1.52-12.20, p = 0.006). Smoking cessation was advised to all the 127 current smokers (100%). Fifty-six (44.1%) were compliant with the recommendation: 24.1, 58.3 and 47.3% of patients followed by PCP, gastroenterologists and pancreas specialists, respectively (Pairwise comparisons PCP vs Pancreas: p = 0.03, PCP vs. Gastroenterologist: p = 0.01, others nonsignificant). Multivariable analysis did not confirm this finding. CONCLUSIONS: The majority of providers counsel for alcohol/smoking cessation. Less than half the patients follow the recommendations. Patients followed by pancreas specialists were more likely to adhere to alcohol cessation recommendation.

Does Provider Type Affect Bone Health Surveillance in Chronic Pancreatitis?

BACKGROUND: Bone density screening (DEXA) and vitamin D serum assay (Vit-D) are recommended in chronic pancreatitis, but adherence by providers is unknown. AIMS: Assess DEXA/Vit-D testing according to provider type. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of chronic pancreatitis patients followed in a tertiary hospital (August 2017-2018) was conducted. Provider type was primary care (PCP), gastroenterologist, and pancreas specialist. Chi-square test and multivariable analysis were conducted to assess the relation between provider type and DEXA/Vit-D testing. Subset analyses were performed among patients with fecal elastase < 200 mcg/g. RESULTS: A total of 478 charts were reviewed, and 256 (53.6%) met diagnosis of chronic pancreatitis; 184 (71.9%) definite, 45 (17.6%) probable, and 27 (10.6%) borderline chronic pancreatitis. DEXA was tested in 112/256 (43%) patients; 16/57(28%) patients followed by PCP, 11/38 (28.9%) by gastroenterologists, and 85/161(52.2%) by pancreas specialists (p = 0.001). Vit-D was tested in 210/256 (82.0%) patients; 42/57(73.7%) followed by PCP, 29/38 (76.3%) by gastroenterologists, and 139/161(86.3%) by pancreas specialists (p = 0.06). Multivariate analysis assessing DEXA/Vit-D testing showed pancreas specialists were more likely to test compared to PCP (DEXA: OR 3.70, CI 1.77-7.74, p = 0.001. Vit-D: OR 3.24, CI 1.43-7.38, p = 0.005), but gastroenterologists were not. In patients with low fecal elastase, pancreas specialists were more likely to test DEXA (pancreas specialists: 62.1%, PCP: 40.0%, Gastroenterologists: 11.1%, p = 0.01) and all patients received Vit-D testing. CONCLUSIONS: Chronic pancreatitis patients often do not receive optimal preventive care. Pancreas specialists were more likely to perform DEXA and Vit-D testing compared to PCP and gastroenterologists. More physician education is needed.

Prevalence of imaging findings of acute pancreatitis in emergency department patients with elevated serum lipase.

PURPOSE: To assess the association of imaging features of acute pancreatitis (AP) with the magnitude of lipase elevation in Emergency Department (ED) patients. METHODS: This Institutional Review Board-approved retrospective study included 509 consecutive patients presenting from 9/1/13-8/31/15 to a large academic ED with serum lipase levels ≥3× the upper limit of normal (ULN) (≥180 U/L). Patients were excluded if they did not have imaging (n = 131) or had a history of trauma, abdominal metastases, altered mental status, or transfer from an outside hospital (n = 190); the final study population was 188 patients. Imaging exams were retrospectively evaluated, and a consensus opinion of two subspecialty-trained abdominal radiologists was used to diagnose AP. Primary outcome was presence of imaging features of AP stratified by lipase level (≥3×-10× ULN and > 10× ULN). Secondary outcome was rate of discordant consensus evaluation compared to original radiologist's report. RESULTS: 25.0% of patients (47/188) had imaging features of AP. When lipase was >10× ULN (n = 94), patients were more likely to have imaging features of AP (34%) vs. those with mild elevation (16%) (p = 0.0042). There was moderately strong correlation between lipase level and presence of imaging features of AP (r = 0.48, p < 0.0001). Consensus review of CT and MRI images was discordant with the original report in 14.9% (28/188) of cases. CONCLUSION: Prevalence of imaging signs of AP in an ED population with lipase ≥3× ULN undergoing imaging is low. However, the probability of imaging features of AP increases as lipase value increases.

Lipase Elevation in Patients With COVID-19.

INTRODUCTION: Although coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has been associated with gastrointestinal manifestations, its effect on the pancreas remains unclear. We aimed to assess the frequency and characteristics of hyperlipasemia in patients with COVID-19. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of hospitalized patients across 6 US centers with COVID-19. RESULTS: Of 71 patients, 9 (12.1%) developed hyperlipasemia, with 2 (2.8%) greater than 3 times upper limit of normal. No patient developed acute pancreatitis. Hyperlipasemia was not associated with poor outcomes or symptoms. DISCUSSION: Although a mild elevation in serum lipase was observed in some patients with COVID-19, clinical acute pancreatitis was not seen.

Opiate Prescriptions at Discharge Are Not Associated with Early Readmissions in Acute Pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: Early readmissions in acute pancreatitis (AP) are common. The impact of opiate prescriptions on readmissions is unknown. AIMS: To determine whether the prescription of opiates at hospital discharge and the dose prescribed are associated with early readmissions in AP. METHODS: Direct admissions from the Emergency Department (ED) for AP from September 1, 2013, to August 31, 2016 were identified. Opiate prescription was defined as a new prescription at discharge in an opiate-naïve patient. Early readmission was ED visit or hospitalization within 30 days for an AP-related reason. Multivariable logistic regression was performed, adjusted for age, Charlson Comorbidity Index, pancreatic necrosis, baseline opiate use, non-opiate analgesics, and pain score at discharge. RESULTS: A total of 318 AP patients were identified; the overall early readmission rate was 18%. One hundred and twenty-one (38%) were prescribed opiates at discharge, and 22% had an early readmission. One hundred and ninety-seven (62%) were not prescribed opiates, and 16% had an early readmission. Median opiate dose was 48 mg (24-h morphine equivalents). On multivariable analysis, neither the prescription of opiates (OR 1.2, 95% CI 0.6-2.4, p = 0.55) nor the dose of opiates (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.99-1.00, p = 0.39) was associated with early readmission. In subset analysis of patients discharged with an opiate prescription, those on opiates at baseline were significantly more likely to have an early readmission (OR 4.19, 95% CI 1.04-16.94, p = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: In AP patients, neither prescription of opiates at discharge nor prescribed dose was associated with early readmission. Patients on opiates at baseline discharged with an opiate prescription were more likely to have an early readmission.

Early Abdominal Imaging Remains Over-Utilized in Acute Pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: Early abdominal computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance (MR) imaging is common in acute pancreatitis (AP). Guidelines (2007-2013) indicate routine use is unwarranted. AIMS: To compare the frequency and evaluate the predictors of early CT/MR utilization for AP between September 2006-2007 (period A) and September 2014-2015 (period B). METHODS: AP patients presenting directly to a large academic emergency department were prospectively enrolled during each period. Cases requiring imaging to fulfill diagnostic criteria were excluded. Early CT/MR (within 24 h of presentation) utilization rates were compared using Fisher's exact test. Predictors of early imaging usage were assessed with multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: The cohort included 96 AP cases in period A and 97 in period B. There were no significant differences in patient demographics, comorbidity scores, or AP severity. Period B cases manifested decreased rates of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) during the first 24 h of hospitalization (67% period A vs. 43% period B, p = 0.001). Independent predictors of early imaging included age >60 and SIRS or organ failure on day 1. No significant decrease in early CT/MR usage was observed from period A to B on both univariate (49% period A vs. 40% period B, p = 0.25) and multivariate (OR 1.0 for period B vs. A, 95% CI 0.5-1.9) analysis. CONCLUSIONS: In a comparison of imaging practices for AP, there was no significant decrease in early abdominal CT/MR utilization from 2007 to 2015. Quality improvement initiatives specifically targeting early imaging overuse are needed.

A Shift Toward Early Oral Feeding in Acute Pancreatitis.

OBJECTIVES: The 2018 American Gastroenterological Association (AGA) guidelines strongly recommended early oral feeding as tolerated in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP). We compare early oral feeding rates in AP patients hospitalized in the periods before (2013-2016, Period A) and after (2019-2020, Period B) publication of the AGA guidelines, hypothesizing increased adherence in Period B. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of AP patients presenting to the emergency department during each period. Early oral feeding was defined as diet initiation within the first 48 hours of presentation. RESULTS: The cohort included 276 AP cases in period A and 104 in period B. A higher percentage of patients were offered early oral feeding during period B as compared to period A (70.2% vs. 43.5%). Similarly, more patients in period B were started on solid diet as compared to period A (34.6% vs. 20.3%). On multivariable regression analysis, the independent predictors of delayed oral feeding included early opioid analgesics use (OR 0.37), presence of pancreatic necrosis (OR 0.14), and organ failure (OR 0.33). CONCLUSIONS: More AP patients were initiated on early oral feeding in the period following the publication of the AGA guidelines. Opioid analgesics use, pancreatic necrosis, and organ failure were associated with delayed oral feeding.

Prospective Validation of a Prediction Model for the Diagnosis of Acute Pancreatitis.

Importance: While most patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) fulfill diagnostic criteria with characteristic abdominal pain and serum lipase levels of at least 3 times the upper limit of normal (reference range) at presentation, early imaging is often used for confirmation. A prior prediction model and corresponding point-based score were developed using nonimaging parameters to diagnose AP in patients presenting to the emergency department (ED). Objective: To evaluate the performance of the prediction model to diagnose AP in a prospective patient cohort. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective diagnostic study included consecutive adult patients presenting to the ED between January 1, 2020, and March 9, 2021, at 2 large academic medical centers in the northeastern US with serum lipase levels at least 3 times the upper limit of normal. Patients transferred from outside institutions or with malignant disease and established intra-abdominal metastases, acute trauma, or altered mentation were excluded. Data were analyzed from October 15 to October 23, 2023. Exposures: Participants were assigned scores for initial serum lipase level, number of prior AP episodes, prior cholelithiasis, abdominal surgery within 2 months, presence of epigastric pain, pain of worsening severity, duration from pain onset to presentation, and pain level at ED presentation. Main Outcome and Measures: A final diagnosis of AP, established by expert review of hospitalization records. Results: Prospective scores in 349 participants (mean [SD] age, 53.0 [18.8] years; 184 women [52.7%]; 66 Black [18.9%]; 199 White [57.0%]) demonstrated an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.91. A score of at least 6 points achieved highest accuracy (F score, 82.0), corresponding to a sensitivity of 81.5%, specificity of 85.9%, positive predictive value of 82.6%, and negative predictive value of 85.1% for AP diagnosis. Early computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging was performed more often in participants predicted to have AP (116 of 155 [74.8%] with a score ≥6 vs 111 of 194 [57.2%] with a score <6; P < .001). Early imaging revealed an alternative diagnosis in 8 of 116 participants (6.9%) with scores of at least 6 points, 1 of 93 (1.1%) with scores of at least 7 points, and 1 of 73 (1.4%) with scores of at least 8 points. Conclusions and Relevance: In this multicenter diagnostic study, the prediction model demonstrated excellent AP diagnostic accuracy. Its application may be used to avoid unnecessary confirmatory imaging.

Provider Differences in Monitoring and Management of Exocrine Pancreatic Insufficiency in Chronic Pancreatitis.

OBJECTIVES: Chronic pancreatitis (CP) is a common cause of exocrine pancreatic insufficiency (EPI). Regular monitoring and treatment are recommended to decrease morbidity. This study evaluates whether provider type impacts EPI monitoring and management in CP. METHODS: Fecal elastase 1 (FE-1) testing and pancreatic enzyme replacement therapy (PERT) utilization were retrospectively compared between primary care providers (PCPs), gastroenterologists and pancreas specialists using pairwise comparisons. Multivariate analysis was conducted to study the association between adequate PERT and age, sex, race, insurance status, provider type, and etiology. RESULTS: Among 256 patients, FE-1 was measured in 115 (44.9%) and of 143 (55.9%) patients who received PERT, 100 (69.9%) received adequate dosage. Fecal elastase 1 testing was performed in 7/57 (12.3%) by PCP, 11/38 (28.9%) by gastroenterologists, and 97/161 (60.2%) by pancreas specialists (P < 0.0001). Adequate PERT was prescribed in 7/24 (29.2%) patients by PCPs, 11/20 (55.0%) by gastroenterologists, and 82/99 (82.8%) by pancreas specialists (P < 0.0001). On multivariate analysis, pancreas specialists were significantly more likely to prescribe adequate PERT compared with PCP (odds ratio, 11.3; 95% confidence interval, 3.3-38.2; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Many patients with CP receive inadequate surveillance and EPI treatment. Pancreas specialists are more likely to surveil and treat EPI adequately.

Clinical course and outcome among patients with acute pancreatitis and COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: The data on clinical course and outcome of acute pancreatitis among patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are sparse. In this study, we analyzed the clinical profiles of patients with COVID 19 and acute pancreatitis. METHODS: This retrospective study was conducted on Research Patient Data Registry data which was pooled from five Mass General Brigham Healthcare Network hospitals. We extracted data on demographics, symptoms, ICU transfer, mechanical ventilation, laboratories' profiles, imaging findings, and patient outcomes. RESULT: Of 985 screened adult patients, 17 were eligible for the study, 9 (52.9%) were admitted primarily for respiratory failure and developed acute pancreatitis after a median of 22.5 days (13-76 days) from the onset of COVID-19 symptoms. On contrary, eight patients presented with typical symptoms and were diagnosed with acute pancreatitis, the majority with mild severity (62.5%) on admission. Patients who were admitted primarily with severe COVID-19 illness were younger (median age 57 vs. 63 years), females (55.6 vs. 25%), of Hispanic ethnicity (55.6 vs. 25%), and obese (88.9 vs. 37.5%). The median peak lipase, C reactive protein, ferritin, lactate dehydrogenase, D-dimer were higher among patients who developed acute pancreatitis later during hospitalization. Patients who developed acute pancreatitis later also experienced higher episodes of necrotizing pancreatitis (11.1% vs. 0), thromboembolic complications (55.6 vs. 12.5%), and higher mortality (37.5 vs. 12.5%). CONCLUSION: Acute pancreatitis is not common among patients with COVID-19. Patients with COVID-19 who had acute pancreatitis on admission had more benign course and overall better outcome as compared to the patients who developed acute pancreatitis during hospitalization.

Optimizing Multidisciplinary Simulation in Medical School for Larger Groups: Role Assignment by Lottery and Guided Learning.

PURPOSE: Medical school simulations are often designed for a limited number of students to maximize engagement and learning. To ensure that all first-year medical students who wished to join had an opportunity to participate, we designed a novel method for larger groups. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We devised a low technology "Orchestra Leader's" chart approach to prominently display students' roles, chosen by lottery. During simulation, the chart was mounted on an intravenous pole and served as a group organizational tool. A course instructor prompted students using the chart to accomplish the course objectives in a logical order. Real-life cardiologists and gastroenterologists provided the students with expert subspecialty consultation. We analyzed 125 anonymous student evaluation ratings for 3 years (2017-2019) with a range of 8 to 19 students per laboratory session. RESULTS: Our 2017-2019 larger group sessions were all rated as excellent (1.26, Mean, SD ±.510) on the Likert scale where 1.0 is excellent and 5.0 is poor. There were no statistically significant differences in overall ratings among the 2017, 2018 and 2019 sessions. The subspecialists were uniformly rated as excellent. Verbatim free-text responses demonstrated resounding student appreciation for the role assignment by lottery method. CONCLUSION: We designed a novel, "Orchestra Leader's" chart approach for accommodating larger groups in a multidisciplinary simulation laboratory using role assignment by lottery, roles depicted on an organizational chart, and expert instructor prompting. Our consistently excellent ratings suggest that our methods are useful for achieving well-rated larger group simulation laboratories.

Are Opioid-Naive Patients With Acute Pancreatitis Given Opioid Prescriptions at Discharge?

OBJECTIVES: Opioids are commonly used in the management of acute pancreatitis (AP). Inpatient opioid exposure is known to increase the risk of chronic opioid use after discharge. Prescription patterns for opioids at discharge for AP are unknown. METHODS: Medical records of adult AP patients who presented to the emergency department from September 1, 2013, to August 31, 2016, were reviewed. Opioid prescription at discharge was defined as a prescription for opioids in a patient who was opioid naive at admission. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify predictors of opioid prescription at discharge. RESULTS: A total of 259 opioid-naive AP patients were identified. Of these, 108 (41.6%) of 259 were discharged with an opioid prescription and 61 (56.5%) of 108 had discharge pain scores of 3 or lower. Two hundred twenty-two (85.7%) received opioids during admission and 105 (47.3%) of 222 were discharged with an opioid prescription. On multivariable analysis, predictors of discharge opioid prescription included inpatient use of opioids, female sex, and discharge pain score greater than 3. CONCLUSIONS: In opioid-naive AP patients, 41.6% were discharged from the hospital with a new prescription for opioids, even though a significant proportion had pain scores of 3 or lower. Guidelines are needed for opioid prescriptions at discharge for AP.

A Meta-Analysis of GLP-1 After Roux-En-Y Gastric Bypass: Impact of Surgical Technique and Measurement Strategy.

BACKGROUND: Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) is an effective treatment for diabetes. Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) is a gut hormone that is important to glucose homeostasis. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess GLP-1 level and its predictors after RYGB. METHODS: The study design was a meta-analysis. The data sources were MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Databases. The study selection composed of studies with pre- and post-RYGB levels. The main outcomes were as follows: Primary outcome was the change in postprandial GLP-1 levels after RYGB. Secondary outcomes included the changes in fasting glucose, fasting insulin, and fasting GLP-1 levels after RYGB. Meta-regression to determine predictors of changes in GLP-1 levels was performed. Outcomes were reported using Hedge's g. RESULTS: Twenty-four studies with 368 patients were included. Postprandial GLP-1 levels increased after RYGB (Hedge's g = 1.29, p < 0.0001), while fasting GLP-1 did not change (p = 0.23). Peak postprandial GLP-1 levels gave the most consistent results (I 2 = 9.11). Fasting glucose and insulin levels decreased after RYGB (p < 0.0001). Roux limb length was a significant predictor for amount of GLP-1 increase (ß = - 0.01, p = 0.02). Diabetes status, amount of weight loss, length of biliopancreatic limb, and time of measurement were not significant predictors (p > 0.05). CONCLUSION: Postprandial GLP-1 levels increase after RYGB, while fasting levels remain unchanged. Shorter Roux limb length is associated with greater increase in postprandial GLP-1, which may lead to better glycemic control in this population.

A Clinical Model for the Early Diagnosis of Acute Pancreatitis in the Emergency Department.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to develop a diagnostic model that predicts acute pancreatitis (AP) risk before imaging. METHODS: Emergency department patients with serum lipase elevated to 3 times the upper limit of normal or greater were identified retrospectively (September 1, 2013-August 31, 2015). An AP diagnosis was established by expert review of full hospitalization records. Candidate predictors included demographic and clinical characteristics at presentation. Using a derivation set, a multivariable logistic regression model and corresponding point-based scoring system was developed to predict AP. Discrimination accuracy and calibration were assessed in a separate validation set. RESULTS: In 319 eligible patients, 182 (57%) had AP. The final model (area under curve, 0.92) included 8 predictors: number of prior AP episodes; history of cholelithiasis; no abdominal surgery (prior 2 months); time elapsed from symptom onset; pain localized to epigastrium, of progressively worsening severity, and severity level at presentation; and extent of lipase elevation. At a diagnostic risk threshold of 8 points or higher (≥99%), the model identified AP with a sensitivity of 45%, and a specificity and a positive predictive value of 100%. CONCLUSIONS: In emergency department patients with lipase elevated to 3 times the upper limit of normal or greater, this model helps identify AP risk before imaging. Prospective validation studies are needed to confirm diagnostic accuracy.