Predicting the Progression of Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Dementia Using Recurrent Neural Networks With a Series of Neuropsychological Tests.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The prevalence of Alzheimer's dementia (AD) is increasing as populations age, causing immense suffering for patients, families, and communities. Unfortunately, no treatments for this neurodegenerative disease have been established. Predicting AD is therefore becoming more important, because early diagnosis is the best way to prevent its onset and delay its progression. METHODS: Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is the stage between normal cognition and AD, with large variations in its progression. The disease can be effectively managed by accurately predicting the probability of MCI progressing to AD over several years. In this study we used the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative dataset to predict the progression of MCI to AD over a 3-year period from baseline. We developed and compared various recurrent neural network (RNN) models to determine the predictive effectiveness of four neuropsychological (NP) tests and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data at baseline. RESULTS: The experimental results confirmed that the Preclinical Alzheimer's Cognitive Composite score was the most effective of the four NP tests, and that the prediction performance of the NP tests improved over time. Moreover, the gated recurrent unit model exhibited the best performance among the prediction models, with an average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.916. CONCLUSIONS: Timely prediction of progression from MCI to AD can be achieved using a series of NP test results and an RNN, both with and without using the baseline MRI data.

Prediction of osteoporosis in patients with rheumatoid arthritis using machine learning.

Osteoporosis is a serious health concern in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Machine learning (ML) models have been increasingly incorporated into various clinical practices, including disease classification, risk prediction, and treatment response. However, only a few studies have focused on predicting osteoporosis using ML in patients with RA. We aimed to develop an ML model to predict osteoporosis using a representative Korean RA cohort database. The KORean Observational study Network for Arthritis (KORONA) database, established by the Clinical Research Center for RA in Korea, was used in this study. Among the 5077 patients registered in KORONA, 2374 patients were included in this study. Four representative ML algorithms were used for the prediction: logistic regression (LR), random forest, XGBoost (XGB), and LightGBM. The accuracy, F1 score, and area under the curve (AUC) of each model were measured. The LR model achieved the highest AUC value at 0.750, while the XGB model achieved the highest accuracy at 0.682. Body mass index, age, menopause, waist and hip circumferences, RA surgery, and monthly income were risk factors of osteoporosis. In conclusion, ML algorithms are a useful option for screening for osteoporosis in patients with RA.

Clinical applicability of an artificial intelligence prediction algorithm for early prediction of non-persistent atrial fibrillation.

Background and aims: It is difficult to document atrial fibrillation (AF) on ECG in patients with non-persistent atrial fibrillation (non-PeAF). There is limited understanding of whether an AI prediction algorithm could predict the occurrence of non-PeAF from the information of normal sinus rhythm (SR) of a 12-lead ECG. This study aimed to derive a precise predictive AI model for screening non-PeAF using SR ECG within 4 weeks. Methods: This retrospective cohort study included patients aged 18 to 99 with SR ECG on 12-lead standard ECG (10 seconds) in Ewha Womans University Medical Center for 3 years. Data were preprocessed into three window periods (which are defined with the duration from SR to non-PeAF detection) - 1 week, 2 weeks, and 4 weeks from the AF detection prospectively. For experiments, we adopted a Residual Neural Network model based on 1D-CNN proposed in a previous study. We used 7,595 SR ECGs (extracted from 215,875 ECGs) with window periods of 1 week, 2 weeks, and 4 weeks for analysis. Results: The prediction algorithm showed an AUC of 0.862 and an F1-score of 0.84 in the 1:4 matched group of a 1-week window period. For the 1:4 matched group of a 2-week window period, it showed an AUC of 0.864 and an F1-score of 0.85. Finally, for the 1:4 matched group of a 4-week window period, it showed an AUC of 0.842 and an F1-score of 0.83. Conclusion: The AI prediction algorithm showed the possibility of risk stratification for early detection of non-PeAF. Moreover, this study showed that a short window period is also sufficient to detect non-PeAF.

Predicting progression to dementia with "comprehensive visual rating scale" and machine learning algorithms.

Background and Objective: Identifying biomarkers for predicting progression to dementia in patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is crucial. To this end, the comprehensive visual rating scale (CVRS), which is based on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), was developed for the assessment of structural changes in the brains of patients with MCI. This study aimed to investigate the use of the CVRS score for predicting dementia in patients with MCI over a 2-year follow-up period using various machine learning (ML) algorithms. Methods: We included 197 patients with MCI who were followed up more than once. The data used for this study were obtained from the Japanese-Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative study. We assessed all the patients using their CVRS scores, cortical thickness data, and clinical data to determine their progression to dementia during a follow-up period of over 2 years. ML algorithms, such as logistic regression, random forest (RF), XGBoost, and LightGBM, were applied to the combination of the dataset. Further, feature importance that contributed to the progression from MCI to dementia was analyzed to confirm the risk predictors among the various variables evaluated. Results: Of the 197 patients, 108 (54.8%) showed progression from MCI to dementia. Tree-based classifiers, such as XGBoost, LightGBM, and RF, achieved relatively high performance. In addition, the prediction models showed better performance when clinical data and CVRS score (accuracy 0.701-0.711) were used than when clinical data and cortical thickness (accuracy 0.650-0.685) were used. The features related to CVRS helped predict progression to dementia using the tree-based models compared to logistic regression. Conclusions: Tree-based ML algorithms can predict progression from MCI to dementia using baseline CVRS scores combined with clinical data.