Baseline metastatic growth rate is an independent prognostic marker in patients with advanced BRAF V600 mutated melanoma receiving targeted therapy.

BACKGROUND: Targeted therapy (TT) of BRAF V600 mutated unresectable melanoma with inhibitors of the MAPK pathway achieves response rates of up to 76%, but most patients develop secondary resistance. Albeit TT is strikingly efficacious during the first days of treatment, even in advanced cases, long-term survival is highly unlikely, especially in patients with unfavorable baseline characteristics like elevated lactate dehydrogenase (LDH). In patients treated with anti-PD-1 immune checkpoint inhibitors, elevated baseline metastatic growth rate (MGR) was the most important prognostic factor. Here, we aimed at investigating the prognostic impact of MGR in patients with unresectable melanoma receiving TT. METHODS: Clinical records of 242 patients with at least one measurable target lesion (TL) receiving TT at seven skin cancer centers were reviewed. Baseline MGR was determined measuring the largest TL at baseline and at one earlier timepoint. RESULTS: Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were significantly impaired in patients with an MGR > 3.9 mm/month (median OS: 11.4 vs. 35.5 months, P < 0.0001; median PFS: 4.8 vs. 9.2 months, P < 0.0001). Multivariable analysis of OS and PFS revealed that the prognostic impact of elevated MGR was independent of LDH, presence of brain and liver metastases, tumor burden, and line of treatment. The prognostic significance of elevated MGR was highest in patients with normal LDH. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline MGR is an important independent prognostic marker for OS and PFS in melanoma patients treated with TT. Its implementation in clinical routine is easy and could facilitate the prognostic stratification.

Pretreatment metastatic growth rate determines clinical outcome of advanced melanoma patients treated with anti-PD-1 antibodies: a multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Checkpoint inhibitors revolutionized the treatment of metastatic melanoma patients. Although tumor burden and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) are associated with overall survival (OS), the impact of tumor growth kinetics remains elusive and in part contradictory. The aims of this study were to develop a novel simple and rapid method that estimates pretreatment metastatic growth rate (MGR) and to investigate its prognostic impact in melanoma patients treated with antiprogrammed death receptor-1 (PD-1) antibodies. METHODS: MGR was assessed in three independent cohorts of a total of 337 unselected consecutive metastasized stage IIIB-IV melanoma patients (discovery cohort: n=53, confirmation cohort: n=126, independent multicenter validation cohort: n=158). MGR was computed during the pretreatment period before initiation of therapy with anti-PD-1 antibodies nivolumab or pembrolizumab by measuring the increase of the longest diameter of the largest target lesion. Tumor doubling time served as quality control. Kaplan-Meier analysis and univariable as well as multivariable Cox regression were used to examine the prognostic impact of MGR. RESULTS: Pretreatment MGR >3.9 mm/month was associated with impaired OS in the discovery cohort (HR 6.19, 95% CI 2.92 to 13.10, p<0.0001), in the confirmation cohort (HR 3.62, 95% CI 2.19 to 5.98, p<0.0001) and in the independent validation cohort (HR 2.57, 95% CI 1.56 to 4.25, p=0.00023). Prior lines of systemic treatment did not influence the significance of MGR. Importantly, the prognostic impact of MGR was independent of total tumor burden, diameter of the largest metastasis, number of prior lines of systemic treatment, LDH, as well as liver and brain metastasis (discovery and confirmation cohorts: both p<0.0001). Superiority of MGR compared with these variables was confirmed in the independent multicenter validation cohort (HR 2.92, 95% CI 1.62 to 5.26, p=0.00036). CONCLUSIONS: High pretreatment MGR is an independent strong prognostic biomarker associated with unfavorable survival of melanoma patients receiving anti-PD-1 antibodies. Further investigations are warranted to assess the predictive impact of MGR in distinct systemic therapeutic regimens.