Modelling the long-run learning impact of the Covid-19 learning shock: Actions to (more than) mitigate loss.

This paper uses a calibrated "pedagogical production function" model to estimate the potential long-term losses to children's learning from the temporary shock of Covid-19 related school closures. It then models possible gains from two mitigation strategies. Without mitigation, children could lose more than a full year's worth of learning from a three-month school closure because they will be behind the curriculum when they re-enter school and will fall further behind as time goes on. Remediation when children return to school reduces the long-term learning loss by half, but still leaves children more than half a year behind where they would have been with no shock. Remediation combined with long-term reorientation of curriculum to align with children's learning levels fully mitigates the long-term learning loss due to the shock and surpasses the learning in the counterfactual of no shock by more than a full year's worth of learning. Systems need to begin planning now for remediation programmes, and as they do so they should build programmes and train teachers in ways that can continue to produce benefits beyond the period immediately following reopening.

A structured model of the dynamics of student learning in developing countries, with applications to policy.

Learning trajectories vary amazingly widely across countries, regions, and individual students in dynamic ways. In this paper we develop a parametrized structural model of the dynamics of the learning process and use the model for suggestive policy applications. We first synthesize the existing empirical literature on learning profiles, which suggest a clear set of parameters that formally characterize the learning process. We then calibrate this model of the learning process to reproduce the distribution of observed learning outcomes in low- and middle-income countries. Applying our calibrated model to policy simulations, we find that expanding schooling to universal attainment of basic education without changing the dynamics of the learning process would produce very little additional learning. Adjusting other parameters in the model, however, has large, positive effects. Slowing the pace of curriculum, so that more children can keep up, increases average learning in grade 10 by the learning equivalent of 1.6 years of schooling. Expanding the student skill levels that learn from a given level of instruction to account for within classroom heterogeneity of learning levels increases average grade 10 learning by the equivalent of a full year of schooling. The parameters we use are flexible, to accommodate the learning process in different contexts, and future work could explore additional parameterizations and calibrations for informing plans to improve education systems' coherence for learning.

Effective investment in women's futures: Schooling with learning.

Women's schooling has long been regarded as one of the best investments in development. Yet countries vary widely in the extent to which a year of schooling conveys useful skills and knowledge and hence schooling and education cannot be treated as synonyms. Using two different cross-nationally comparable data sets which contain measures of schooling, assessments of literacy, and life outcomes for more than 50 countries we show the association of women's education, defined as schooling and the acquisition of literacy, with four life outcomes (fertility, child mortality, empowerment, and financial practices) is much larger than the standard estimates of the gains from schooling alone. In our preferred instrumental variables (IV) estimates, that correct for the attenuation bias induced by measurement error, the gain from education is more than 3 times larger than the standard OLS estimates of gains from schooling alone. While our results are not causal estimates, if anything like our results are true in the causal pathways whereby schooling and learning lead to improvements in women's well-being this implies the estimates of the costs and benefits of expansions in grade attainment versus improving learning need to be adjusted accordingly.

Using learning profiles to inform education priorities: An editors' overview of the Special Issue.

This special issue explores the use of learning profiles for analysing the dynamics of low learning in low- and middle-income countries and informing priorities to address the learning crisis. The 12 papers in the special issue draw on learning data from more than 50 countries and 6 million individuals, with implications for education policy and practice. Taken together, they point to a need to steepen learning trajectories by prioritizing early mastery of foundational skills for all children. The papers show that addressing the learning crisis will not be achieved through more school grade attainment alone, nor through within-country equality across groups (such as girls and boys or rich and poor). Positive examples show that programs focused on foundational learning both improved average learning and reduced inequality. Addressing the learning crisis will require a focus on systems improvement, using foundational learning as a case in point for making the needed systems improvements to steepen learning throughout children's time in school. Learning profiles can provide a guide for education actors aiming to improve learning outcomes.