Effects of tones associated with drilling activities on bowhead whale calling rates.

During summer 2012 Shell performed exploratory drilling at Sivulliq, a lease holding located in the autumn migration corridor of bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus), northwest of Camden Bay in the Beaufort Sea. The drilling operation involved a number of vessels performing various activities, such as towing the drill rig, anchor handling, and drilling. Acoustic data were collected with six arrays of directional recorders (DASARs) deployed on the seafloor over ~7 weeks in Aug-Oct. Whale calls produced within 2 km of each DASAR were identified and localized using triangulation. A "tone index" was defined to quantify the presence and amplitude of tonal sounds from industrial machinery. The presence of airgun pulses originating from distant seismic operations was also quantified. For each 10-min period at each of the 40 recorders, the number of whale calls localized was matched with the "dose" of industrial sound received, and the relationship between calling rates and industrial sound was modeled using negative binomial regression. The analysis showed that with increasing tone levels, bowhead whale calling rates initially increased, peaked, and then decreased. This dual behavioral response is similar to that described for bowhead whales and airgun pulses in earlier work. Increasing call repetition rates can be a viable strategy for combating decreased detectability of signals arising from moderate increases in background noise. Meanwhile, as noise increases, the benefits of calling may decrease because information transfer becomes increasingly error-prone, and at some point calling may no longer be worth the effort.

Risk assessment and management of brucellosis in the southern greater Yellowstone area (II): Cost-benefit analysis of reducing elk brucellosis prevalence.

Recent cases of bovine brucellosis (Brucella abortus) in cattle (Bos taurus) and domestic bison (Bison bison) of the southern Greater Yellowstone Area (SGYA) have been traced back to free-ranging elk (Cervus elaphus). Several management activities have been implemented to reduce brucellosis seroprevalence in elk, including test-and-slaughter, low-density feeding at elk winter feedgrounds, and elk vaccination. It is unclear which of these activities are most cost-effective at reducing the risk of elk transmitting brucellosis to cattle. In a companion paper, a stochastic risk model was used to translate a reduction in elk seroprevalence to a reduction in the risk of transmission to cattle. Here, we use those results to estimate the expected economic benefits and costs of reducing seroprevalence in elk using three different management activities: vaccination of elk with Brucella strain 19 (S19), low-density feeding of elk, and elk test-and-slaughter. Results indicate that the three elk management activities yield negative expected net benefits, ranging from -$2983 per year for low-density feeding to -$595,471 per year for test-and-slaughter. Society's risk preferences will determine whether strategies that generate small negative net benefit, such as low-density feeding, are worth implementing. However, activities with large negative net benefits, such as test-and-slaughter and S19 vaccination, are unlikely to be economically worthwhile. Given uncertainty about various model parameters, we identify some circumstances in which individual management activities might generate positive expected net benefit.

Risk assessment and management of brucellosis in the southern greater Yellowstone area (I): A citizen-science based risk model for bovine brucellosis transmission from elk to cattle.

Livestock producers and state wildlife agencies have used multiple management strategies to control bovine brucellosis in the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA). However, spillover from elk to domestic bison and cattle herds continues to occur. Although knowledge is increasing about the location and behavior of elk in the SGYA, predicting spatiotemporal overlap between elk and cattle requires locations of livestock operations and observations of elk contact by producers. We queried all producers in a three-county area using a questionnaire designed to determine location of cattle and whether producers saw elk comingle with their animals. This information was used to parameterize a spatially-explicit risk model to estimate the number of elk expected to overlap with cattle during the brucellosis transmission risk period. Elk-cattle overlap was predicted in areas further from roads and forest boundaries in areas with wolf activity, with higher slopes, lower hunter densities, and where the cost-distance to feedgrounds was very low or very high. The model was used to estimate the expected number of years until a cattle reactor will be detected, under alternative management strategies. The model predicted cattle cases every 4.28 years in the highest risk herd unit, a higher prediction than the one case in 26 years we have observed. This difference likely indicates that ongoing management strategies are at least somewhat effective in preventing potential elk-cattle brucellosis transmission in these areas. Using this model, we can infer the expected effectiveness of various management strategies for reducing the risk of brucellosis spillover from elk to cattle.