The costs of curiosity and creativity: Minimizing the downsides while maximizing the upsides.

The unbridled positivity toward curiosity and creativity may be excessive. Both aid species survival through exploration and advancement. These beneficial effects are well documented. What remains is to understand their optimal levels and contexts for maximal achievement, health, and well-being. Every beneficial element to individuals and groups carries the potential for harm - curiosity and creativity included.

The ASSESS-AKI Study found urinary epidermal growth factor is associated with reduced risk of major adverse kidney events.

Biomarkers of tubular function such as epidermal growth factor (EGF) may improve prognostication of participants at highest risk for chronic kidney disease (CKD) after hospitalization. To examine this, we measured urinary EGF (uEGF) from samples collected in the Assessment, Serial Evaluation, and Subsequent Sequelae of Acute Kidney Injury (ASSESS-AKI) Study, a multi-center, prospective, observational cohort of hospitalized participants with and without AKI. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to investigate the association of uEGF/Cr at hospitalization, three months post-discharge, and the change between these time points with major adverse kidney events (MAKE): CKD incidence, progression, or development of kidney failure. Clinical findings were paired with mechanistic studies comparing relative Egf expression in mouse models of kidney atrophy or repair after ischemia-reperfusion injury. MAKE was observed in 20% of 1,509 participants over 4.3 years of follow-up. Each 2-fold higher level of uEGF/Cr at three months was associated with decreased risk of MAKE (adjusted hazards ratio 0.46, 95% confidence interval: 0.39-0.55). Participants with the highest increase in uEGF/Cr from hospitalization to three-month follow-up had a lower risk of MAKE (adjusted hazards ratio 0.52; 95% confidence interval: 0.36-0.74) compared to those with the least change in uEGF/Cr. A model using uEGF/Cr at three months combined with clinical variables yielded moderate discrimination for MAKE (area under the curve 0.73; 95% confidence interval: 0.69-0.77) and strong discrimination for kidney failure at four years (area under the curve 0.96; 95% confidence interval: 0.92-1.00). Accelerated restoration of Egf expression in mice was seen in the model of adaptive repair after injury, compared to a model of progressive atrophy. Thus, urinary EGF/Cr may be a biomarker of distal tubular health, with higher concentrations and increased uEGF/Cr post-discharge independently associated with reduced risk of MAKE in hospitalized patients.

Integrated Analysis of Blood and Urine Biomarkers to Identify Acute Kidney Injury Subphenotypes and Associations With Long-term Outcomes.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a heterogeneous clinical syndrome with varying causes, pathophysiology, and outcomes. We incorporated plasma and urine biomarker measurements to identify AKI subgroups (subphenotypes) more tightly linked to underlying pathophysiology and long-term clinical outcomes. STUDY DESIGN: Multicenter cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 769 hospitalized adults with AKI matched with 769 without AKI, enrolled from December 2009 to February 2015 in the ASSESS-AKI Study. PREDICTORS: 29 clinical, plasma, and urinary biomarker parameters used to identify AKI subphenotypes. OUTCOME: Composite of major adverse kidney events (MAKE) with a median follow-up period of 4.7 years. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Latent class analysis (LCA) and k-means clustering were applied to 29 clinical, plasma, and urinary biomarker parameters. Associations between AKI subphenotypes and MAKE were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: Among 769 AKI patients both LCA and k-means identified 2 distinct AKI subphenotypes (classes 1 and 2). The long-term risk for MAKE was higher with class 2 (adjusted HR, 1.41 [95% CI, 1.08-1.84]; P=0.01) compared with class 1, adjusting for demographics, hospital level factors, and KDIGO stage of AKI. The higher risk of MAKE among class 2 was explained by a higher risk of long-term chronic kidney disease progression and dialysis. The top variables that were different between classes 1 and 2 included plasma and urinary biomarkers of inflammation and epithelial cell injury; serum creatinine ranked 20th out of the 29 variables for differentiating classes. LIMITATIONS: A replication cohort with simultaneously collected blood and urine sampling in hospitalized adults with AKI and long-term outcomes was unavailable. CONCLUSIONS: We identify 2 molecularly distinct AKI subphenotypes with differing risk of long-term outcomes, independent of the current criteria to risk stratify AKI. Future identification of AKI subphenotypes may facilitate linking therapies to underlying pathophysiology to prevent long-term sequalae after AKI. PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Acute kidney injury (AKI) occurs commonly in hospitalized patients and is associated with high morbidity and mortality. The AKI definition lumps many different types of AKI together, but subgroups of AKI may be more tightly linked to the underlying biology and clinical outcomes. We used 29 different clinical, blood, and urinary biomarkers and applied 2 different statistical algorithms to identify AKI subtypes and their association with long-term outcomes. Both clustering algorithms identified 2 AKI subtypes with different risk of chronic kidney disease, independent of the serum creatinine concentrations (the current gold standard to determine severity of AKI). Identification of AKI subtypes may facilitate linking therapies to underlying biology to prevent long-term consequences after AKI.

Plasma Soluble Tumor Necrosis Factor Receptor Concentrations and Clinical Events After Hospitalization: Findings From the ASSESS-AKI and ARID Studies.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: The role of plasma soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 (sTNFR1) and sTNFR2 in the prognosis of clinical events after hospitalization with or without acute kidney injury (AKI) is unknown. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Hospital survivors from the ASSESS-AKI (Assessment, Serial Evaluation, and Subsequent Sequelae of Acute Kidney Injury) and ARID (AKI Risk in Derby) studies with and without AKI during the index hospitalization who had baseline serum samples for biomarker measurements. PREDICTORS: We measured sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 from plasma samples obtained 3 months after discharge. OUTCOMES: The associations of biomarkers with longitudinal kidney disease incidence and progression, heart failure, and death were evaluated. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: Among 1,474 participants with plasma biomarker measurements, 19% had kidney disease progression, 14% had later heart failure, and 21% died during a median follow-up of 4.4 years. For the kidney outcome, the adjusted HRs (AHRs) per doubling in concentration were 2.9 (95% CI, 2.2-3.9) for sTNFR1 and 1.9 (95% CI, 1.5-2.5) for sTNFR2. AKI during the index hospitalization did not modify the association between biomarkers and kidney events. For heart failure, the AHRs per doubling in concentration were 1.9 (95% CI, 1.4-2.5) for sTNFR1 and 1.5 (95% CI, 1.2-2.0) for sTNFR2. For mortality, the AHRs were 3.3 (95% CI, 2.5-4.3) for sTNFR1 and 2.5 (95% CI, 2.0-3.1) for sTNFR2. The findings in ARID were qualitatively similar in terms of the magnitude of association between biomarkers and outcomes. LIMITATIONS: Different biomarker platforms and AKI definitions; limited generalizability to other ethnic groups. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 measured 3 months after hospital discharge were independently associated with clinical events regardless of AKI status during the index admission. sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 may assist with the risk stratification of patients during follow-up.

Biomarkers of eGFR decline after cardiac surgery in children: findings from the ASSESS-AKI study.

BACKGROUND: Children who require surgery for congenital heart disease have increased risk for long-term chronic kidney disease (CKD). Clinical factors as well as urine biomarkers of tubular health and injury may help improve the prognostication of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline. METHODS: We enrolled children from 1 month to 18 years old undergoing cardiac surgery in the ASSESS-AKI cohort. We used mixed-effect models to assess the association between urinary biomarkers (log2-transformed uromodulin, NGAL, KIM-1, IL-18, L-FABP) measured 3 months after cardiac surgery and cyanotic heart disease with the rate of eGFR decline at annual in-person visits over 4 years. RESULTS: Of the 117 children enrolled, 30 (24%) had cyanotic heart disease. During 48 months of follow-up, the median eGFR in the subgroup of children with cyanotic heart disease was lower at all study visits as compared with children with acyanotic heart disease (p = 0.01). In the overall cohort, lower levels of both urine uromodulin and IL-18 after discharge were associated with eGFR decline. After adjustment for age, RACHS-1 surgical complexity score, proteinuria, and eGFR at the 3-month study visit, lower concentrations of urine uromodulin and IL-18 were associated with a monthly decline in eGFR (uromodulin ß = 0.04 (95% CI: 0.00-0.09; p = 0.07) IL-18 ß = 0.07 (95% CI: 0.01-0.13; p = 0.04), ml/min/1.73 m2 per month). CONCLUSIONS: At 3 months after cardiac surgery, children with lower urine uromodulin and IL-18 concentrations experienced a significantly faster decline in eGFR. Children with cyanotic heart disease had a lower median eGFR at all time points but did not experience faster eGFR decline. A higher-resolution version of the Graphical abstract is available as Supplementary information.

Angiopoietins as Prognostic Markers for Future Kidney Disease and Heart Failure Events after Acute Kidney Injury.

BACKGROUND: The mechanisms underlying long-term sequelae after AKI remain unclear. Vessel instability, an early response to endothelial injury, may reflect a shared mechanism and early trigger for CKD and heart failure. METHODS: To investigate whether plasma angiopoietins, markers of vessel homeostasis, are associated with CKD progression and heart failure admissions after hospitalization in patients with and without AKI, we conducted a prospective cohort study to analyze the balance between angiopoietin-1 (Angpt-1), which maintains vessel stability, and angiopoietin-2 (Angpt-2), which increases vessel destabilization. Three months after discharge, we evaluated the associations between angiopoietins and development of the primary outcomes of CKD progression and heart failure and the secondary outcome of all-cause mortality 3 months after discharge or later. RESULTS: Median age for the 1503 participants was 65.8 years; 746 (50%) had AKI. Compared with the lowest quartile, the highest quartile of the Angpt-1:Angpt-2 ratio was associated with 72% lower risk of CKD progression (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.15 to 0.51), 94% lower risk of heart failure (aHR, 0.06; 95% CI, 0.02 to 0.15), and 82% lower risk of mortality (aHR, 0.18; 95% CI, 0.09 to 0.35) for those with AKI. Among those without AKI, the highest quartile of Angpt-1:Angpt-2 ratio was associated with 71% lower risk of heart failure (aHR, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.12 to 0.69) and 68% less mortality (aHR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.15 to 0.68). There were no associations with CKD progression. CONCLUSIONS: A higher Angpt-1:Angpt-2 ratio was strongly associated with less CKD progression, heart failure, and mortality in the setting of AKI.

Divergent semantic integration (DSI): Extracting creativity from narratives with distributional semantic modeling.

We developed a novel conceptualization of one component of creativity in narratives by integrating creativity theory and distributional semantics theory. We termed the new construct divergent semantic integration (DSI), defined as the extent to which a narrative connects divergent ideas. Across nine studies, 27 different narrative prompts, and over 3500 short narratives, we compared six models of DSI that varied in their computational architecture. The best-performing model employed Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT), which generates context-dependent numerical representations of words (i.e., embeddings). BERT DSI scores demonstrated impressive predictive power, explaining up to 72% of the variance in human creativity ratings, even approaching human inter-rater reliability for some tasks. BERT DSI scores showed equivalently high predictive power for expert and nonexpert human ratings of creativity in narratives. Critically, DSI scores generalized across ethnicity and English language proficiency, including individuals identifying as Hispanic and L2 English speakers. The integration of creativity and distributional semantics theory has substantial potential to generate novel hypotheses about creativity and novel operationalizations of its underlying processes and components. To facilitate new discoveries across diverse disciplines, we provide a tutorial with code (osf.io/ath2s) on how to compute DSI and a web app ( osf.io/ath2s ) to freely retrieve DSI scores.

A prospective cohort study of acute kidney injury and kidney outcomes, cardiovascular events, and death.

Acute kidney injury (AKI) has been reported to be associated with excess risks of death, kidney disease progression and cardiovascular events although previous studies have important limitations. To further examine this, we prospectively studied adults from four clinical centers surviving three months and more after hospitalization with or without AKI who were matched on center, pre-admission CKD status, and an integrated priority score based on age, prior cardiovascular disease or diabetes mellitus, preadmission estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and treatment in the intensive care unit during the index hospitalization between December 2009-February 2015, with follow-up through November 2018. All participants had assessments of kidney function before (eGFR) and at three months and annually (eGFR and proteinuria) after the index hospitalization. Associations of AKI with outcomes were examined after accounting for pre-admission and three-month post-discharge factors. Among 769 AKI (73% Stage 1, 14% Stage 2, 13% Stage 3) and 769 matched non-AKI adults, AKI was associated with higher adjusted rates of incident CKD (adjusted hazard ratio 3.98, 95% confidence interval 2.51-6.31), CKD progression (2.37,1.28-4.39), heart failure events (1.68, 1.22-2.31) and all-cause death (1.78, 1.24-2.56). AKI was not associated with major atherosclerotic cardiovascular events in multivariable analysis (0.95, 0.70-1.28). After accounting for degree of kidney function recovery and proteinuria at three months after discharge, the associations of AKI with heart failure (1.13, 0.80-1.61) and death (1.29, 0.84-1.98) were attenuated and no longer significant. Thus, assessing kidney function recovery and proteinuria status three months after AKI provides important prognostic information for long-term clinical outcomes.

Outcomes after Angiography with Sodium Bicarbonate and Acetylcysteine.

BACKGROUND: Intravenous sodium bicarbonate and oral acetylcysteine are widely used to prevent acute kidney injury and associated adverse outcomes after angiography without definitive evidence of their efficacy. METHODS: Using a 2-by-2 factorial design, we randomly assigned 5177 patients at high risk for renal complications who were scheduled for angiography to receive intravenous 1.26% sodium bicarbonate or intravenous 0.9% sodium chloride and 5 days of oral acetylcysteine or oral placebo; of these patients, 4993 were included in the modified intention-to-treat analysis. The primary end point was a composite of death, the need for dialysis, or a persistent increase of at least 50% from baseline in the serum creatinine level at 90 days. Contrast-associated acute kidney injury was a secondary end point. RESULTS: The sponsor stopped the trial after a prespecified interim analysis. There was no interaction between sodium bicarbonate and acetylcysteine with respect to the primary end point (P=0.33). The primary end point occurred in 110 of 2511 patients (4.4%) in the sodium bicarbonate group as compared with 116 of 2482 (4.7%) in the sodium chloride group (odds ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72 to 1.22; P=0.62) and in 114 of 2495 patients (4.6%) in the acetylcysteine group as compared with 112 of 2498 (4.5%) in the placebo group (odds ratio, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.78 to 1.33; P=0.88). There were no significant between-group differences in the rates of contrast-associated acute kidney injury. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients at high risk for renal complications who were undergoing angiography, there was no benefit of intravenous sodium bicarbonate over intravenous sodium chloride or of oral acetylcysteine over placebo for the prevention of death, need for dialysis, or persistent decline in kidney function at 90 days or for the prevention of contrast-associated acute kidney injury. (Funded by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs Office of Research and Development and the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia; PRESERVE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01467466 .).

Phylogenetic and Biogeographic Patterns of Vibrio parahaemolyticus Strains from North America Inferred from Whole-Genome Sequence Data.

Vibrio parahaemolyticus is the most common cause of seafood-borne illness reported in the United States. The draft genomes of 132 North American clinical and oyster V. parahaemolyticus isolates were sequenced to investigate their phylogenetic and biogeographic relationships. The majority of oyster isolate sequence types (STs) were from a single harvest location; however, four were identified from multiple locations. There was population structure along the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts of North America, with what seemed to be a hub of genetic variability along the Gulf Coast, with some of the same STs occurring along the Atlantic Coast and one shared between the coastal waters of the Gulf and those of Washington State. Phylogenetic analyses found nine well-supported clades. Two clades were composed of isolates from both clinical and oyster sources. Four were composed of isolates entirely from clinical sources, and three were entirely from oyster sources. Each single-source clade consisted of one ST. Some human isolates lack tdh, trh, and some type III secretion system (T3SS) genes, which are established virulence genes of V. parahaemolyticus Thus, these genes are not essential for pathogenicity. However, isolates in the monophyletic groups from clinical sources were enriched in several categories of genes compared to those from monophyletic groups of oyster isolates. These functional categories include cell signaling, transport, and metabolism. The identification of genes in these functional categories provides a basis for future in-depth pathogenicity investigations of V. parahaemolyticusIMPORTANCEVibrio parahaemolyticus is the most common cause of seafood-borne illness reported in the United States and is frequently associated with shellfish consumption. This study contributes to our knowledge of the biogeography and functional genomics of this species around North America. STs shared between the Gulf Coast and the Atlantic seaboard as well as Pacific waters suggest possible transport via oceanic currents or large shipping vessels. STs frequently isolated from humans but rarely, if ever, isolated from the environment are likely more competitive in the human gut than other STs. This could be due to additional functional capabilities in areas such as cell signaling, transport, and metabolism, which may give these isolates an advantage in novel nutrient-replete environments such as the human gut.

Achieved blood pressure post-acute kidney injury and risk of adverse outcomes after AKI: A prospective parallel cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There has recently been considerable interest in better understanding how blood pressure should be managed after an episode of hospitalized AKI, but there are scant data regarding the associations between blood pressure measured after AKI and subsequent adverse outcomes. We hypothesized that among AKI survivors, higher blood pressure measured three months after hospital discharge would be associated with worse outcomes. We also hypothesized these associations between blood pressure and outcomes would be similar among those who survived non-AKI hospitalizations. METHODS: We quantified how systolic blood pressure (SBP) observed three months after hospital discharge was associated with risks of subsequent hospitalized AKI, loss of kidney function, mortality, and heart failure events among 769 patients in the prospective ASSESS-AKI cohort study who had hospitalized AKI. We repeated this analysis among the 769 matched non-AKI ASSESS-AKI enrollees. We then formally tested for AKI interaction in the full cohort of 1538 patients to determine if these associations differed among those who did and did not experience AKI during the index hospitalization. RESULTS: Among 769 patients with AKI, 42 % had subsequent AKI, 13 % had loss of kidney function, 27 % died, and 18 % had heart failure events. SBP 3 months post-hospitalization did not have a stepwise association with the risk of subsequent AKI, loss of kidney function, mortality, or heart failure events. Among the 769 without AKI, there was also no stepwise association with these risks. In formal interaction testing using the full cohort of 1538 patients, hospitalized AKI did not modify the association between post-discharge SBP and subsequent risks of adverse clinical outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to our first hypothesis, we did not observe that higher stepwise blood pressure measured three months after hospital discharge with AKI was associated with worse outcomes. Our data were consistent with our second hypothesis that the association between blood pressure measured three months after hospital discharge and outcomes among AKI survivors is similar to that observed among those who survived non-AKI hospitalizations.

Body mass index and chronic kidney disease outcomes after acute kidney injury: a prospective matched cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) and obesity are independent risk factors for chronic kidney disease (CKD). This study aimed to determine if obesity modifies risk for CKD outcomes after AKI. METHODS: This prospective multisite cohort study followed adult survivors after hospitalization, with or without AKI. The primary outcome was a combined CKD event of incident CKD, progression of CKD and kidney failure, examined using time-to-event Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for diabetes status, age, pre-existing CKD, cardiovascular disease status and intensive care unit admission, and stratified by study center. Body mass index (BMI) was added as an interaction term to examine effect modification by body size. RESULTS: The cohort included 769 participants with AKI and 769 matched controls. After median follow-up of 4.3 years, among AKI survivors, the rate of the combined CKD outcome was 84.7 per1000-person-years with BMI ≥30 kg/m2, 56.4 per 1000-person-years with BMI 25-29.9 kg/m2, and 72.6 per 1000-person-years with BMI 20-24.9 kg/m2. AKI was associated with a higher risk of combined CKD outcomes; adjusted-HR 2.43 (95%CI 1.87-3.16), with no evidence that this was modified by BMI (p for interaction = 0.3). After adjustment for competing risk of death, AKI remained associated with a higher risk of the combined CKD outcome (subdistribution-HR 2.27, 95%CI 1.76-2.92) and similarly, there was no detectable effect of BMI modifying this risk. CONCLUSIONS: In this post-hospitalization cohort, we found no evidence for obesity modifying the association between AKI and development or progression of CKD.

Prevalence and Risk Factors for CKD in the General Population of Southwestern Nicaragua.

BACKGROUND: Studies have described Mesoamerican nephropathy among agricultural workers of El Salvador and northwestern Nicaragua. Data on prevalence and risk factors for CKD beyond agricultural workers and in other regions in Nicaragua are sparse. METHODS: We recruited participants from 32 randomly selected communities in the Department of Rivas's ten municipalities in two phases. In phase 1, we screened participants using a field-based capillary creatinine measuring system and collected self-reported information on lifestyle and occupational, exposure, and health histories. Two years later, in phase 2, we enrolled 222 new participants, performing serum creatinine testing in these participants and confirmatory serum creatinine testing in phase 1 participants. RESULTS: We enrolled 1242 of 1397 adults (89%) living in 533 households (median age 41 years; 43% male). We confirmed CKD (eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m2) in 53 of 1227 (4.3%) evaluable participants. In multivariable testing, risk factors for prevalent CKD included age (odds ratio [OR], 1.92; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.89 to 1.96) and self-reported history of hypertension (OR, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.04 to 3.64), diabetes (OR, 2.88; 95% CI, 1.40 to 5.93), or current or past work in the sugarcane industry (OR 2.92; 95% CI, 1.36 to 6.27). CONCLUSIONS: Adjusted CKD prevalence was about 5% with repeat confirmatory testing in southwest Nicaragua, lower than in the northwest region. Risk factors included diabetes, hypertension, and current or prior work in the sugarcane industry but not in other forms of agricultural work. Formal CKD surveillance programs in Nicaragua are needed to assess the overall burden of CKD nationally, with a focus on agricultural workers.

Insular Microbiogeography: Three Pathogens as Exemplars.

Traditional taxonomy in biology assumes that life is organized in a simple tree. Attempts to classify microorganisms in this way in the genomics era led microbiologists to look for finite sets of 'core' genes that uniquely group taxa as clades in the tree. However, the diversity revealed by large-scale whole genome sequencing is calling into question the long-held model of a hierarchical tree of life, which leads to questioning of the definition of a species. Large-scale studies of microbial genome diversity reveal that the cumulative number of new genes discovered increases with the number of genomes studied as a power law and subsequently leads to the lack of evidence for a unique core genome within closely related organisms. Sampling 'enough' new genomes leads to the discovery of a replacement or alternative to any gene. This power law behaviour points to an underlying self-organizing critical process that may be guided by mutation and niche selection. Microbes in any particular niche exist within a local web of organism interdependence known as the microbiome. The same mechanism that underpins the macro-ecological scaling first observed by MacArthur and Wilson also applies to microbial communities. Recent metagenomic studies of a food microbiome demonstrate the diverse distribution of community members, but also genotypes for a single species within a more complex community. Collectively, these results suggest that traditional taxonomic classification of bacteria could be replaced with a quasispecies model. This model is commonly accepted in virology and better describes the diversity and dynamic exchange of genes that also hold true for bacteria. This model will enable microbiologists to conduct population-scale studies to describe microbial behaviour, as opposed to a single isolate as a representative.

Kidney Biomarkers of Injury and Repair as Predictors of Contrast-Associated AKI: A Substudy of the PRESERVE Trial.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: The PRESERVE trial used a 2 × 2 factorial design to compare intravenous saline solution with intravenous sodium bicarbonate solution and oral N-acetylcysteine with placebo for the prevention of 90-day major adverse kidney events and death (MAKE-D) and contrast-associated acute kidney injury (CA-AKI) among patients with chronic kidney disease undergoing angiography. In this ancillary study, we evaluated the predictive capacities of preangiography injury and repair proteins in urine and plasma for MAKE-D, CA-AKI, and their impact on trial design. STUDY DESIGN: Longitudinal analysis. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: A subset of participants from the PRESERVE trial. EXPOSURES: Injury (KIM-1, NGAL, and IL-18) and repair (MCP-1, UMOD, and YKL-40) proteins in urine and plasma 1 to 2 hours preangiography. OUTCOMES: MAKE-D and CA-AKI. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: We analyzed the associations of preangiography biomarkers with MAKE-D and with CA-AKI. We evaluated whether the biomarker levels could enrich the MAKE-D event rate and improve future clinical trial efficiency through an online biomarker prognostic enrichment tool available at prognosticenrichment.com. RESULTS: We measured plasma biomarkers in 916 participants and urine biomarkers in 797 participants. After adjusting for urinary albumin-creatinine ratio and baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate, preangiography levels of 4 plasma (KIM-1, NGAL, UMOD, and YKL-40) and 3 urine (NGAL, IL-18, and YKL-40) biomarkers were associated with MAKE-D. Only plasma KIM-1 level was significantly associated with CA-AKI after adjustment. Biomarker levels provided modest discriminatory capacity for MAKE-D. Screening patients using the 50th percentile of preangiography plasma KIM-1 or YKL-40 levels would have reduced the required sample size by 30% (∼2,000 participants). LIMITATIONS: Evaluation of prognostic enrichment does not account for changing trial costs, time needed to screen patients, or loss to follow-up. Most participants were male, limiting the generalizability of our findings. CONCLUSIONS: Preangiography levels of injury and repair biomarkers modestly predict the development of MAKE-D and can be used to improve the efficiency of future CA-AKI trials.

Impact of AKI on Urinary Protein Excretion: Analysis of Two Prospective Cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Prior studies of adverse renal consequences of AKI have almost exclusively focused on eGFR changes. Less is known about potential effects of AKI on proteinuria, although proteinuria is perhaps the strongest risk factor for future loss of renal function. METHODS: We studied enrollees from the Assessment, Serial Evaluation, and Subsequent Sequelae of AKI (ASSESS-AKI) study and the subset of the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study enrollees recruited from Kaiser Permanente Northern California. Both prospective cohort studies included annual ascertainment of urine protein-to-creatinine ratio, eGFR, BP, and medication use. For hospitalized participants, we used inpatient serum creatinine measurements obtained as part of clinical care to define an episode of AKI (i.e., peak/nadir inpatient serum creatinine ≥1.5). We performed mixed effects regression to examine change in log-transformed urine protein-to-creatinine ratio after AKI, controlling for time-updated covariates. RESULTS: At cohort entry, median eGFR was 62.9 ml/min per 1.73 m2 (interquartile range [IQR], 46.9-84.6) among 2048 eligible participants, and median urine protein-to-creatinine ratio was 0.12 g/g (IQR, 0.07-0.25). After enrollment, 324 participants experienced at least one episode of hospitalized AKI during 9271 person-years of follow-up; 50.3% of first AKI episodes were Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes stage 1 in severity, 23.8% were stage 2, and 25.9% were stage 3. In multivariable analysis, an episode of hospitalized AKI was independently associated with a 9% increase in the urine protein-to-creatinine ratio. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis of data from two prospective cohort studies found that hospitalization for an AKI episode was independently associated with subsequent worsening of proteinuria.

Prediction of Arteriovenous Fistula Clinical Maturation from Postoperative Ultrasound Measurements: Findings from the Hemodialysis Fistula Maturation Study.

BACKGROUND: The utility of early postoperative ultrasound measurements in predicting arteriovenous fistula (AVF) clinical maturation is uncertain. METHODS: We investigated the relationships of ultrasound parameters with AVF clinical maturation in newly created AVF, measured at 1 day and 2 and 6 weeks, in 602 participants of a multicenter, observational cohort study. A backward elimination algorithm identified ultrasound measurements that independently predicted unassisted and overall AVF maturation. Candidate variables included AVF blood flow, diameter, and depth, upper arm arterial diameter, presence of stenosis, presence of accessory veins, seven case-mix factors (age, sex, black race, AVF location, diabetes, dialysis status, and body mass index), and clinical center. We evaluated the accuracy of the resulting models for clinical prediction. RESULTS: At each ultrasound measurement time, AVF blood flow, diameter, and depth each predicted in a statistically significant manner both unassisted and overall clinical maturation. Moreover, neither the remaining ultrasound parameters nor case-mix factors were associated with clinical AVF maturation after accounting for blood flow, diameter, and depth, although maturation probabilities differed among clinical centers before and after accounting for these parameters. The crossvalidated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for models constructed using these three ultrasound parameters was 0.69, 0.74, and 0.79 at 1 day and 2 and 6 weeks, respectively, for unassisted AVF clinical maturation and 0.69, 0.71, and 0.76, respectively, for overall AVF maturation. CONCLUSIONS: AVF blood flow, diameter, and depth moderately predicted unassisted and overall AVF clinical maturation. The other factors considered did not further improve AVF maturation prediction.

Acute Kidney Injury in Sugarcane Workers at Risk for Mesoamerican Nephropathy.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Mesoamerican nephropathy (MeN), a form of chronic kidney disease (CKD) of unknown cause in Central America, affects young individuals working in physically strenuous occupations. Repeated episodes of work-related kidney injury may lead to CKD in this setting. We aimed to better understand the burden and natural history of acute kidney injury (AKI) in workers at risk for MeN. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional study of active sugarcane workers, followed by prospective follow-up of individuals with AKI. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 326 sugarcane workers with normal preharvest serum creatinine (Scr) values and no history of CKD in an MeN hotspot in Nicaragua near the end of the harvest, and prospective follow-up of workers with AKI. PREDICTOR: AKI during the harvest, as defined by Scr level increase ≥ 0.3mg/dL over baseline to a level ≥ 1.3mg/dL. OUTCOMES: Kidney function trajectory and development of CKD over 12 months. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Linear regression models were used to analyze the association between job category and kidney function. For workers with AKI, the effect of time on Scr level was evaluated using linear mixed effects. RESULTS: 34 of 326 participants were found to have AKI, with a median late-harvest Scr level of 1.64mg/dL in the AKI group. Workers without AKI had a median Scr level of 0.88mg/dL. AKI was more common among cane cutters compared with other field workers. Participants with AKI had variable degrees of kidney function recovery, with median 6- and 12-month Scr values of 1.25 and 1.27mg/dL, respectively (P < 0.001 for each follow-up value compared to late-harvest Scr). When we compared workers' kidney function before the AKI episode to their kidney function at last follow-up, 10 participants with AKI developed de novo estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60mL/min/1.73m2 and 11 had a >30% decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate. LIMITATIONS: Follow-up limited to 1 year and some loss to follow-up in the prospective component of the study. Broad definition of AKI that includes both acute and subacute kidney injury. CONCLUSIONS: In a group of sugarcane workers with normal preharvest kidney function, newly decreased kidney function developing during the harvest season was common. Of those with kidney injury, nearly half had established CKD 12 months later.

Relationships Between Clinical Processes and Arteriovenous Fistula Cannulation and Maturation: A Multicenter Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Half of surgically created arteriovenous fistulas (AVFs) require additional intervention to effectively support hemodialysis. Postoperative care and complications may affect clinical maturation. STUDY DESIGN: Hemodialysis Fistula Maturation (HFM) Study, a 7-center prospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 491 patients with single-stage AVFs who had neither thrombosis nor AVF intervention before a 6-week postoperative ultrasonographic examination and who required maintenance hemodialysis. PREDICTORS: Postoperative care processes and complications. OUTCOMES: Attempted cannulation, successful cannulation, and unassisted and overall clinical maturation as defined by the HFM Study criteria. RESULTS: AVF cannulation was attempted in 443 of 491 (90.2%) participants and was eventually successful in 430 of these 443 (97.1%) participants. 263 of these 430 (61.2%) reached unassisted and 118 (27.4%) reached assisted AVF maturation (overall maturation, 381/430 [88.6%]). Attempted cannulation was less likely in patients of surgeons with policies for routine 2-week versus later-than-2-week first postoperative visits (OR, 0.21; 95% CI, 0.06-0.70), routine second postoperative follow-up visits (OR, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.15-0.97), and a routine clinical postoperative ultrasound (OR, 0.28; 95% CI, 0.14-0.55). Attempted cannulation was also less likely among patients undergoing procedures to assist maturation (OR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.27-0.98). Unassisted maturation was more likely for patients treated in facilities with access coordinators (OR, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.17-3.12), but less likely after precannulation nonstudy ultrasounds (OR per ultrasound, 0.42 [95% CI, 0.26-0.68]) and initial unsuccessful cannulation attempts (OR per each additional attempt, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.83-0.98]). Overall maturation was less likely with infiltration before successful cannulation (OR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.22-0.89). Among participants receiving maintenance hemodialysis before AVF surgery, unassisted and overall maturation were less likely with longer intervals from surgery to initial cannulation (ORs for each additional month of 0.81 [95% CI, 0.76-0.88] and 0.93 [95% CI, 0.89-0.98], respectively) and from initial to successful cannulation (ORs for each additional week of 0.87 [95% CI, 0.81-0.94] and 0.88 [95% CI, 0.83-0.94], respectively). LIMITATIONS: Surgeons' management policies were assessed only by questionnaire at study onset. Most participants received upper-arm AVFs, planned 2-stage AVFs were excluded, and maturation time windows were imposed. Some care processes may have been missed and the observational design limits causal attribution. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple processes of care and complications are associated with AVF maturation outcomes.

Association between Preoperative Vascular Function and Postoperative Arteriovenous Fistula Development.

Arteriovenous fistula (AVF) maturation failure is the primary cause of dialysis vascular access dysfunction. To evaluate whether preoperative vascular functional properties predict postoperative AVF measurements, patients enrolled in the Hemodialysis Fistula Maturation Study underwent up to five preoperative vascular function tests (VFTs): flow-mediated dilation (FMD), nitroglycerin-mediated dilation (NMD), carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity, carotid-radial pulse wave velocity, and venous occlusion plethysmography. We used mixed effects multiple regression analyses to relate each preoperative VFT to ultrasound measurements of AVF blood flow rate and venous diameter at 1 day, 2 weeks, and 6 weeks after AVF placement. After controlling for AVF location, preoperative ultrasound measurements, and demographic factors (age, sex, race, and dialysis status), greater NMD associated with greater 6-week AVF blood flow rate and AVF diameter (per absolute 10% difference in NMD: change in blood flow rate =14.0%; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 3.7% to 25.3%; P<0.01; change in diameter =0.45 mm; 95% CI, 0.25 to 0.65 mm; P<0.001). Greater FMD also associated with greater increases in 6-week AVF blood flow rate and AVF diameter (per absolute 10% difference in FMD: change in blood flow rate =11.6%; 95% CI, 0.6% to 23.9%; P=0.04; change in diameter =0.31 mm; 95% CI, 0.05 to 0.57 mm; P=0.02). None of the remaining VFT parameters exhibited consistent statistically significant relationships with both postoperative AVF blood flow rate and diameter. In conclusion, preoperative NMD and FMD positively associated with changes in 6-week AVF blood flow rate and diameter, suggesting that native functional arterial properties affect AVF development.