Cancer in Iran 2008 to 2025: Recent incidence trends and short-term predictions of the future burden.

Policymakers require estimates of the future number of cancer patients in order to allocate finite resources to cancer prevention, treatment and palliative care. We examine recent cancer incidence trends in Iran and present predicted incidence rates and new cases for the entire country for the year 2025. We developed a method for approximating population-based incidence from the pathology-based data series available nationally for the years 2008 to 2013, and augmented this with data from the Iranian National Population-based Cancer Registry (INPCR) for the years 2014 to 2016. We fitted time-linear age-period models to the recent incidence trends to quantify the future cancer incidence burden to the year 2025, delineating the contribution of changes due to risk and those due to demographic change. The number of new cancer cases is predicted to increase in Iran from 112 000 recorded cases in 2016 to an estimated 160 000 in 2025, a 42.6% increase, of which 13.9% and 28.7% were attributed to changes in risk and population structure, respectively. In terms of specific cancers, the greatest increases in cases are predicted for thyroid (113.8%), prostate (66.7%), female breast (63.0%) and colorectal cancer (54.1%). Breast, colorectal and stomach cancers were the most common cancers in Iran in 2016 and are predicted to remain the leading cancers nationally in 2025. The increasing trends in incidence of most common cancers in Iran reinforce the need for the tailored design and implementation of effective national cancer control programs across the country.

A population-based and symptom-based COVID-19 prevalence survey.

The current study aimed to determine the community-based COVID-19 prevalence and compare the symptom-based and test-based prevalence rates in the Omicron peak (February 20 to March 20, 2022) to assess community involvement and provide effective healthcare. This cross-sectional and population-based study examined the prevalence of COVID-19 from February 20 to March 20, 2022, in the city of Khomein in Markazi Province (located in central Iran) through random cluster sampling. The period prevalence of recurrent Omicron symptoms was 37.69%. Factors such as residence in urban areas (OR = 1.25, 95% CI: 0.95-1.66), number of COVID-19 vaccine doses (OR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.67-0.95), the interval of last vaccination dose (OR = 1.04, 95% CI: 0.97-1.11) and a history of COVID-19 (OR =1.20, 95% CI: 1.04-1.39) were among the most important risk factors for Omicron. Ongoing efforts to vaccinate high-risk populations as well as stronger actions to diminish the Omicron consequences are fundamental obligations of the health system.

Investigation of the Epidemiological Situation and the Incidence of Covid 19 Disease in an Area of Markazi Province in Iran Country.

INTRODUCTION: Coronavirus is an emerging virus that has caused many casualties. Therefore, the purpose of this descriptive study is to investigate the epidemiological situation of coronavirus in Khomein city in the province of Markazi in Iran. METHOD: This cross-sectional descriptive study was performed on all people with coronavirus disease from the first date of admission of positive PCR of patients with coronavirus until 21 September 2020. Information on the records of definitively discharged and deceased patients due to coronavirus (having positive PCR) was extracted from 20/2/2020 to 21/9/2020 and demographic characteristics such as age, gender, area of residence, occupation, and past medical history were assessed for each patient with coronavirus disease. RESULTS: The range of age of this study was from 2 months to 95 years old and their mean age was 52.9±19.2 years old. The mean age of men and women in this study was 52.36 and 53.84 years old, respectively, which showed no significant relationship (T=0.966, N=691, P-Value=0.335, df=689). 52.1% of deaths were in rural areas and 47.9% were in urban areas. CONCLUSION: With observing the protocols by the people as well as traffic restrictions and social distance, we gradually experienced a decreasing trend in positive coronavirus cases and hospitalization cases. Then, due to the decrease in people's sensitivity and false confidence, the second outbreak of the disease began again and reached its peak in May and July.

Physical and mental growth and development in children with congenital hypothyroidism: a case-control study.

INTRODUCTION: The clinical complications of congenital hypothyroidism such as brain disorders are very subtle and are not recognizable in infancy period. They are recognizable when it is too late for treatment or prevention. General screening of newborns is effective in diagnosing congenital hypothyroidism and initiating initial treatment. The aim of this study is to compare the physical and mental growth pattern of children with congenital hypothyroidism with healthy ones. METHODS: This case-control study was performed on 34 patients and 68 healthy children who were matched in terms of inclusion and exclusion criteria. Children development screening test (ASQ), children development assessment test (Bayley), preschool Wechsler intelligence scale (WPPSI) and age and steps questionnaire of emotional social development (ASQ-SE) were completed by trained questioners. Data were analyzed using STATA software. RESULTS: The results indicated that there was no significant difference between the mean of verbal (P = 0.77), non-verbal (P = 0.81) and general (P = 0.66) IQ in permanent and transient patients and healthy individuals. Also, there was no significant difference between the mean of different ranges of ASQ test (including communication, delicate and large movements, problem solving and social) at 12 months and 42 months (P < 0.05). According to Bayley test, there was no significant difference between the cases (permanent and transient) and controls in the cognitive (P = 0.42) and expressive (P = 0.38) categories. The difference was significant in the perceptual (P = 0.011), large (P = 0.03) and delicate (P = 0.04) movements categories. CONCLUSION: This study emphasized on the high effectiveness of neonate hypothyroidism screening program, so that the difference between 3.5 years old children with and without this disease has decreased significantly. Early diagnosis of the patients, while creating beneficial effects for patients and increasing quality of life, cause reduction in the long-term costs of the health system.

Evaluate the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) and Basic Reproductive Rate (R-naught) of COVID-19.

INTRODUCTION: SARS-CoV-2 primarily affects a person's respiratory system and leads to the spread of pathogenicity in the person and therefore this study evaluated the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) and Basic Reproductive Rate (R-naught) of COVID-19. METHOD: This cross-sectional descriptive study was performed on all people with COVID-19 from the first date of admission of positive PCR patients with SARS-CoV-2 until September 21, 2020, in the area of Markazi Province in Khomein, Iran. Information on the records of definitively discharged and deceased patients due to COVID-19 (having positive PCR) was extracted from 20/2/2020 to 21/9/2020, and Case Fatality Rate (CFR) and Basic Reproductive Rate (R-naught) of COVID-19 were evaluated. The sample size was 691 people. RESULTS: The CFR of the COVID-19 in the current study is 6.65%, and the rate of disease transmission among the sensitive population of Khomein city at the beginning of the study (March) averaged BASIC REPRODUCTIVE RATE= 1.75, and in the last month (September) of the study This value was reduced to BASIC REPRODUCTIVE RATE= 1.306. CONCLUSION: According to our study on Case Fatality Rate (CFR) and Basic Reproductive Rate (R-naught) of COVID-19, showed that the prevalence of the disease was high in March, which due to lack of proper observance of health protocols, we saw this problem and in the months when people have more problems. Hygiene was reduced, and the rate of transmission and mortality was reduced.

Cancer incidence in Iran in 2014: Results of the Iranian National Population-based Cancer Registry.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to report, for the first time, the results of the Iranian National Population-based Cancer Registry (INPCR) for the year 2014. METHODS: Total population of Iran in 2014 was 76,639,000. The INPCR covered 30 out of 31 provinces (98% of total population). It registered only cases diagnosed with malignant new primary tumors. The main sources for data collection included pathology center, hospitals as well as death registries. Quality assessment and analysis of data were performed by CanReg-5 software. Age standardized incidence rates (ASR) (per 100,000) were reported at national and subnational levels. RESULTS: Overall, 112,131 new cancer cases were registered in INPCR in 2014, of which 60,469 (53.9%) were male. The diagnosis of cancer was made by microscopic confirmation in 76,568 cases (68.28%). The ASRs of all cancers were 177.44 and 141.18 in male and female, respectively. Cancers of the stomach (ASR = 21.24), prostate (18.41) and colorectum (16.57) were the most common cancers in men and the top three cancers in women were malignancies of breast (34.53), colorectum (11.86) and stomach (9.44). The ASR of cervix uteri cancer in women was 1.78. Our findings suggested high incidence of cancers of the esophagus, stomach and lung in North/ North West of Iran. CONCLUSION: Our results showed that Iran is a medium-risk area for incidence of cancers. We found differences in the most common cancers in Iran comparing to those reported for the World. Our results also suggested geographical diversities in incidence rates of cancers in different subdivisions of Iran.

The Frequency of High-Risk Behaviors Among Iranian College Students Using Indirect Methods: Network Scale-Up and Crosswise Model.

BACKGROUND: Since the direct questions usually underestimate the frequency of sensitive behaviors, indirect methods can be used to estimate the frequency of some risky behaviors such as illicit drug use, sexual behaviors especially where these behaviors are highly stigmatized. OBJECTIVES: In the current study, we indirectly estimated the prevalence of some risky behaviors among college students using two indirect methods: network scale-up (NSU) and crosswise model (CM). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Having recruited 563 students from one of Iran's major medical universities, the prevalence of opium and drug use, alcohol consumption, relationships with the opposite sex (RWOS),and extra/pre-marital sex (EPMS) were estimated using two indirect methods. RESULTS: The estimated prevalence using the CM and NSU were alcohol consumption (16.8% vs. 8.1%), opium use (2.2% both), methamphetamine use (7.2% vs. 1.2%), taking tramadol without medical indications (14.8% vs. 4.8%), RWOS (42.3% vs. 31.9%), and EPMS (12.4% vs. 7.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Lower estimations in the NSU method might be due to the transmission barrier, which means that students were not fully aware of the high-risk behaviors of their close friends. Nonetheless, it seems that these risky behaviors were more or less common among Iranian college students.