Predicting survival in malignant pleural mesothelioma using routine clinical and laboratory characteristics.

INTRODUCTION: The prognosis of malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is poor, with a median survival of 8-12 months. The ability to predict prognosis in MPM would help clinicians to make informed decisions regarding treatment and identify appropriate research opportunities for patients. The aims of this study were to examine associations between clinical and pathological information gathered during routine care, and prognosis of patients with MPM, and to develop a 6-month mortality risk prediction model. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of patients diagnosed with MPM at Queen Alexandra Hospital, Portsmouth, UK between December 2009 and September 2013. Multivariate analysis was performed on routinely available histological, clinical and laboratory data to assess the association between different factors and 6-month survival, with significant associations used to create a model to predict the risk of death within 6 months of diagnosis with MPM. RESULTS: 100 patients were included in the analysis. Variables significantly associated with patient survival in multivariate analysis were age (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.56), smoking status (current smoker HR 3.42, 95% CI 1.11 to 4.20), chest pain (HR 2.14, 95% CI 1.23 to 3.72), weight loss (HR 2.13, 95% CI 1.18 to 3.72), platelet count (HR 1.05, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.10), urea (HR 2.73, 95% CI 1.31 to 5.69) and adjusted calcium (HR 1.47, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.94). The resulting risk model had a c-statistic value of 0.76. A Hosmer-Lemeshow test confirmed good calibration of the model against the original dataset. CONCLUSION: Risk of death at 6 months in patients with a confirmed diagnosis of MPM can be predicted using variables readily available in clinical practice. The risk prediction model we have developed may be used to influence treatment decisions in patients with MPM. Further validation of the model requires evaluation of its performance on a separate dataset.

Physiological and biological predictors of length of stay and recovery in adults with acute asthma: An observational cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Asthma is a prevalent, chronic disease associated with significant risk to patients and cost to healthcare systems. Accurate estimates of length of stay and recovery are important for patient information, physician prognostication, and management of inpatient beds. OBJECTIVES: To assess factors affecting length of stay and time to recovery in adults with acute asthma. METHODS: We prospectively recruited adult asthmatic non-smokers admitted with an asthma exacerbation. Participants were assessed for demographics, symptoms, medications, bloods including blood count, clotting status, and cytokines. Results were analyzed for correlation and subsequently in a regression model. RESULTS: One hundred twenty-six participants were recruited of which 75.4% were female. Mean age was 40.0 and mean length of stay was 3.98 days. Length of stay was associated with lower APTT ratio (

1 pg/mL (P = 0.04). CONCLUSION: Older participants with lower FEV1 and supplemental oxygen requirements are likely to remain in hospital longer. Activation of the "intrinsic" clotting pathway correlates with an increased length of stay as does a raised serum AST. Detectable IL-12 in plasma correlates with slower recovery and this may be due to poor response to corticosteroids.