Emergency department visits respond nonlinearly to wildfire smoke.

Air pollution negatively affects a range of health outcomes. Wildfire smoke is an increasingly important contributor to air pollution, yet wildfire smoke events are highly salient and could induce behavioral responses that alter health impacts. We combine geolocated data covering all emergency department (ED) visits to nonfederal hospitals in California from 2006 to 2017 with spatially resolved estimates of daily wildfire smoke PM[Formula: see text] concentrations and quantify how smoke events affect ED visits. Total ED visits respond nonlinearly to smoke concentrations. Relative to a day with no smoke, total visits increase by 1 to 1.5% in the week following low or moderate smoke days but decline by 6 to 9% following extreme smoke days. Reductions persist for at least a month. Declines at extreme levels are driven by diagnoses not thought to be acutely impacted by pollution, including accidental injuries and several nonurgent symptoms, and declines come disproportionately from less-insured populations. In contrast, health outcomes with the strongest physiological link to short-term air pollution increase dramatically in the week following an extreme smoke day: We estimate that ED visits for asthma, COPD, and cough all increase by 30 to 110%. Data from internet searches, vehicle traffic sensors, and park visits indicate behavioral changes on high smoke days consistent with declines in healthcare utilization. Because low and moderate smoke days vastly outweigh high smoke days, we estimate that smoke was responsible for an average of 3,010 (95% CI: 1,760-4,380) additional ED visits per year 2006 to 2017. Given the increasing intensity of wildfire smoke events, behavioral mediation is likely to play a growing role in determining total smoke impacts.

Dynamics of racial disparities in all-cause mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic.

As research documenting disparate impacts of COVID-19 by race and ethnicity grows, little attention has been given to dynamics in mortality disparities during the pandemic and whether changes in disparities persist. We estimate age-standardized monthly all-cause mortality in the United States from January 2018 through February 2022 for seven racial/ethnic populations. Using joinpoint regression, we quantify trends in race-specific rate ratios relative to non-Hispanic White mortality to examine the magnitude of pandemic-related shifts in mortality disparities. Prepandemic disparities were stable from January 2018 through February 2020. With the start of the pandemic, relative mortality disadvantages increased for American Indian or Alaska Native (AIAN), Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander (NHOPI), and Black individuals, and relative mortality advantages decreased for Asian and Hispanic groups. Rate ratios generally increased during COVID-19 surges, with different patterns in the summer 2021 and winter 2021/2022 surges, when disparities approached prepandemic levels for Asian and Black individuals. However, two populations below age 65 fared worse than White individuals during these surges. For AIAN people, the observed rate ratio reached 2.25 (95% CI = 2.14, 2.37) in October 2021 vs. a prepandemic mean of 1.74 (95% CI = 1.62, 1.86), and for NHOPI people, the observed rate ratio reached 2.12 (95% CI = 1.92, 2.33) in August 2021 vs. a prepandemic mean of 1.31 (95% CI = 1.13, 1.49). Our results highlight the dynamic nature of racial/ethnic disparities in mortality and raise alarm about the exacerbation of mortality inequities for Indigenous groups due to the pandemic.

Invited commentary: Motivating better methods-and better data collection-for measuring prevalence of drug misuse.

The United States continues to suffer a drug overdose crisis that has resulted in over 100,000 deaths annually since 2021. Despite decades of attention, estimates of the prevalence of drug use at the spatiotemporal resolutions necessary for resource allocation and intervention evaluation are lacking. Current approaches to measure prevalence of drug use, such as population surveys, capture-recapture, and multiplier methods, have significant limitations. Santaella-Tenorio et al. (Am J Epidemiol. XXXX;XXX(XX):XXXX-XXXX)) use a novel joint Bayesian spatiotemporal modeling approach to estimate county-level opioid misuse prevalence in New York state from 2007 to 2018 and identify significant intra-state variation. By leveraging five data sources and simultaneously modeling different opioid-related outcomes - such as deaths, emergency department visits, and treatment visits - they obtain policy-relevant insights into the prevalence of opioid misuse and opioid-related outcomes at high spatiotemporal resolutions. This study provides future researchers with a sophisticated modeling approach that allows them to incorporate multiple data sources in a rigorous statistical framework. The limitations of the study reflect the constraints of the broader field and underscores the importance of enhancing current surveillance with better, newer, and more timely data that is both standardized and easily accessible to inform public health policies and interventions.

Excess Fatal Overdoses in the United States During the COVID-19 Pandemic by Geography and Substance Type: March 2020-August 2021.

Objectives. To assess heterogeneity in pandemic-period excess fatal overdoses in the United States, by location (state, county) and substance type. Methods. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models to estimate counterfactual death counts in the scenario that no pandemic had occurred. Such estimates were subtracted from actual death counts to assess the magnitude of pandemic-period excess mortality between March 2020 and August 2021. Results. Nationwide, we estimated 25 668 (95% prediction interval [PI] = 2811, 48 524) excess overdose deaths. Specifically, 17 of 47 states and 197 of 592 counties analyzed had statistically significant excess overdose-related mortality. West Virginia, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, and New Mexico had the highest rates (20-37 per 100 000). Nationally, there were 5.7 (95% PI = 1.0, 10.4), 3.1 (95% PI = 2.1, 4.2), and 1.4 (95% PI = 0.5, 2.4) excess deaths per 100 000 involving synthetic opioids, psychostimulants, and alcohol, respectively. Conclusions. The steep increase in overdose-related mortality affected primarily the southern and western United States. We identified synthetic opioids and psychostimulants as the main contributors. Public Health Implications. Characterizing overdose-related excess mortality across locations and substance types is critical for optimal allocation of public health resources. (Am J Public Health. 2024;114(6):599-609. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2024.307618).

Youth Experiencing Parental Death Due to Drug Poisoning and Firearm Violence in the US, 1999-2020.

Importance: Youth (those aged <18 years) parental death has been associated with negative health outcomes. Understanding the burden of parental death due to drug poisoning (herein, drugs) and firearms is essential for informing interventions. Objective: To estimate the incidence of youth parental death due to drugs, firearms, and all other causes. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional observational study was conducted using vital registration, including all US decedents, and census data from January 1990 through December 2020. Data were analyzed from May 30, 2023, to March 28, 2024. Exposures: Parental death due to drug poisoning or firearms. Main Outcomes and Measures: A demographic matrix projection model was used to estimate the number and incidence of youth experiencing parental death, defined as the death of 1 or more parents, per 1000 population aged less than 18 years. Analyses evaluated parental deaths by drugs, firearms, and all other causes from 1999 through 2020 by race and ethnicity. Results: Between 1999 and 2020, there were 931 785 drug poisoning deaths and 736 779 firearm-related deaths with a mean (SD) age of 42.6 (16.3) years. Most deaths occurred among males (73.8%) and White decedents (70.8%) followed by Black (17.5%) and Hispanic (9.5%) decedents. An estimated 759 000 (95% CI, 722 000-800 000) youth experienced parental death due to drugs and an estimated 434 000 (95% CI, 409 000-460 000) youth experienced parental death due to firearms, accounting for 17% of all parental deaths. From 1999 to 2020, the estimated number of youth who experienced parental death increased 345% (95% CI, 334%-361%) due to drugs and 39% (95% CI, 37%-41%) due to firearms compared with 24% (95% CI, 23%-25%) due to all other causes. Black youth experienced a disproportionate burden of parental deaths, based primarily on firearm deaths among fathers. In 2020, drugs and firearms accounted for 23% of all parental deaths, double the proportion in 1999 (12%). Conclusions and Relevance: Results of this modeling study suggest that US youth are at high and increasing risk of experiencing parental death by drugs or firearms. Efforts to stem this problem should prioritize averting drug overdoses and firearm violence, especially among structurally marginalized groups.

Counterpoint: Preprints and the Future of Scientific Publishing-In Favor of Relevance.

Peer-reviewed journals provide an invaluable but inadequate vehicle for scientific communication. Preprints are now an essential complement to peer-reviewed publications. Eschewing preprints will slow scientific progress and reduce the public health impact of epidemiologic research. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic highlighted long-standing limitations of the peer-review process. Preprint servers, such as bioRxiv and medRxiv, served as crucial venues to rapidly disseminate research and provide detailed backup to sound-bite science that is often communicated through the popular press or social media. The major criticisms of preprints arise from an unjustified optimism about peer review. Peer review provides highly imperfect sorting and curation of research and only modest improvements in research conduct or presentation for most individual papers. The advantages of peer review come at the expense of months to years of delay in sharing research methods or results. For time-sensitive evidence, these delays can lead to important missteps and ill-advised policies. Even with research that is not intrinsically urgent, preprints expedite debate, expand engagement, and accelerate progress. The risk that poor-quality papers will have undue influence because they are posted on a preprint server is low. If epidemiology aims to deliver evidence relevant for public health, we need to embrace strategic uses of preprint servers.

Wildfire smoke exposure and emergency department visits for headache: A case-crossover analysis in California, 2006-2020.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association of short-term exposure to overall fine particulate matter of <2.5 µm (PM2.5 ) and wildfire-specific PM2.5 with emergency department (ED) visits for headache. BACKGROUND: Studies have reported associations between PM2.5 exposure and headache risk. As climate change drives longer and more intense wildfire seasons, wildfire PM2.5 may contribute to more frequent headaches. METHODS: Our study included adult Californian members (aged ≥18 years) of a large de-identified commercial and Medicare Advantage claims database from 2006 to 2020. We identified ED visits for primary headache disorders (subtypes: tension-type headache, migraine headache, cluster headache, and "other" primary headache). Claims included member age, sex, and residential zip code. We linked daily overall and wildfire-specific PM2.5 to residential zip code and conducted a time-stratified case-crossover analysis considering 7-day average PM2.5 concentrations, first for primary headache disorders combined, and then by headache subtype. RESULTS: Among 9898 unique individuals we identified 13,623 ED encounters for primary headache disorders. Migraine was the most frequently diagnosed headache (N = 5534/13,623 [47.6%]) followed by "other" primary headache (N = 6489/13,623 [40.6%]). For all primary headache ED diagnoses, we observed an association of 7-day average wildfire PM2.5 (odds ratio [OR] 1.17, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.95-1.44 per 10 µg/m3 increase) and by subtype we observed increased odds of ED visits associated with 7-day average wildfire PM2.5 for tension-type headache (OR 1.42, 95% CI 0.91-2.22), "other" primary headache (OR 1.40, 95% CI 0.96-2.05), and cluster headache (OR 1.29, 95% CI 0.71-2.35), although these findings were not statistically significant under traditional null hypothesis testing. Overall PM2.5 was associated with tension-type headache (OR 1.29, 95% CI 1.03-1.62), but not migraine, cluster, or "other" primary headaches. CONCLUSIONS: Although imprecise, these results suggest short-term wildfire PM2.5 exposure may be associated with ED visits for headache. Patients, healthcare providers, and systems may need to respond to increased headache-related healthcare needs in the wake of wildfires and on poor air quality days.

Evaluation of the New England Office Based Addiction Treatment ECHO: A Tool for Strengthening the Addiction Workforce.

INTRODUCTION: Reducing substance-related morbidity requires an educated and well-supported workforce. The New England Office Based Addiction Treatment Extension for Community Healthcare Outcomes (NE OBAT ECHO) began in 2019 to support community-based addiction care teams through virtual mentoring and case-based learning. We sought to characterize the program's impact on the knowledge and attitudes of NE OBAT ECHO participants. METHODS: We conducted an 18-month prospective evaluation of the NE OBAT ECHO. Participants registered for 1 of 2 successive ECHO clinics. Each 5-month clinic included ten 1.5-hour sessions involving brief didactic lectures and de-identified patient case presentations. Participants completed surveys at Month-0, -6, -12, and -18 to assess attitudes about working with patients who use drugs and evidence based practices (EBPs), stigma toward people who use drugs, and addiction treatment knowledge. We compared outcomes using 2 approaches: (i) between-groups, which involved comparing the first intervention group to the delayed intervention (comparison) group, and (ii) within-groups, which involved comparing outcomes at different time points for all participants. In the within-group approach, each participant acted as their own control. RESULTS: Seventy-six health professionals participated in the NE OBAT ECHO, representing various roles in addiction care teams. Approximately half (47% [36/76]) practiced primary care, internal, or family medicine. The first intervention group reported improved job satisfaction and openness toward EBPs compared to the delayed intervention group. Within-group analyses revealed that ECHO participation was associated with increased positive perceptions of role adequacy, support, legitimacy, and satisfaction 6 months following program completion. No changes were identified in willingness to adopt EBPs or treatment knowledge. Stigma toward people who use drugs was persistent in both groups across time points. CONCLUSIONS: NE OBAT ECHO may have improved participants' confidence and satisfaction providing addiction care. ECHO is likely an effective educational tool for expanding the capacity of the addiction workforce.

Anomalously warm weather and acute care visits in patients with multiple sclerosis: A retrospective study of privately insured individuals in the US.

BACKGROUND: As the global climate changes in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, weather and temperature are expected to become increasingly variable. Although heat sensitivity is a recognized clinical feature of multiple sclerosis (MS), a chronic demyelinating disorder of the central nervous system, few studies have examined the implications of climate change for patients with this disease. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of individuals with MS ages 18-64 years in a nationwide United States patient-level commercial and Medicare Advantage claims database from 2003 to 2017. We defined anomalously warm weather as any month in which local average temperatures exceeded the long-term average by ≥1.5°C. We estimated the association between anomalously warm weather and MS-related inpatient, outpatient, and emergency department visits using generalized log-linear models. From 75,395,334 individuals, we identified 106,225 with MS. The majority were women (76.6%) aged 36-55 years (59.0%). Anomalously warm weather was associated with increased risk for emergency department visits (risk ratio [RR] = 1.043, 95% CI: 1.025-1.063) and inpatient visits (RR = 1.032, 95% CI: 1.010-1.054). There was limited evidence of an association between anomalously warm weather and MS-related outpatient visits (RR = 1.010, 95% CI: 1.005-1.015). Estimates were similar for men and women, strongest among older individuals, and exhibited substantial variation by season, region, and climate zone. Limitations of the present study include the absence of key individual-level measures of socioeconomic position (i.e., race/ethnicity, occupational status, and housing quality) that may determine where individuals live-and therefore the extent of their exposure to anomalously warm weather-as well as their propensity to seek treatment for neurologic symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that as global temperatures rise, individuals with MS may represent a particularly susceptible subpopulation, a finding with implications for both healthcare providers and systems.

Mortality in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria.

BACKGROUND: Quantifying the effect of natural disasters on society is critical for recovery of public health services and infrastructure. The death toll can be difficult to assess in the aftermath of a major disaster. In September 2017, Hurricane Maria caused massive infrastructural damage to Puerto Rico, but its effect on mortality remains contentious. The official death count is 64. METHODS: Using a representative, stratified sample, we surveyed 3299 randomly chosen households across Puerto Rico to produce an independent estimate of all-cause mortality after the hurricane. Respondents were asked about displacement, infrastructure loss, and causes of death. We calculated excess deaths by comparing our estimated post-hurricane mortality rate with official rates for the same period in 2016. RESULTS: From the survey data, we estimated a mortality rate of 14.3 deaths (95% confidence interval [CI], 9.8 to 18.9) per 1000 persons from September 20 through December 31, 2017. This rate yielded a total of 4645 excess deaths during this period (95% CI, 793 to 8498), equivalent to a 62% increase in the mortality rate as compared with the same period in 2016. However, this number is likely to be an underestimate because of survivor bias. The mortality rate remained high through the end of December 2017, and one third of the deaths were attributed to delayed or interrupted health care. Hurricane-related migration was substantial. CONCLUSIONS: This household-based survey suggests that the number of excess deaths related to Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico is more than 70 times the official estimate. (Funded by the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and others.).

Trends from 2008 to 2018 in Electricity-dependent Durable Medical Equipment Rentals and Sociodemographic Disparities.

BACKGROUND: Duration and number of power outages have increased over time, partly fueled by climate change, putting users of electricity-dependent durable medical equipment (hereafter, "durable medical equipment") at particular risk of adverse health outcomes. Given health disparities in the United States, we assessed trends in durable medical equipment rental prevalence and individual- and area-level sociodemographic inequalities. METHODS: Using Kaiser Permanente South California electronic health record data, we identified durable medical equipment renters. We calculated annual prevalence of equipment rental and fit hierarchical generalized linear models with ZIP code random intercepts, stratified by rental of breast pumps or other equipment. RESULTS: 243,559 KPSC members rented durable medical equipment between 2008 and 2018. Rental prevalence increased over time across age, sex, racial-ethnic, and Medicaid categories, most by >100%. In adjusted analyses, Medicaid use was associated with increased prevalence and 108 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 99, 117) additional days of equipment rental during the study period. ZIP code-level sociodemographics were associated with increased prevalence of equipment rentals, for example, a 1 SD increase in percent unemployed and

Every Body Counts: Measuring Mortality From the COVID-19 Pandemic.

As of mid-August 2020, more than 170 000 U.S. residents have died of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); however, the true number of deaths resulting from COVID-19, both directly and indirectly, is likely to be much higher. The proper attribution of deaths to this pandemic has a range of societal, legal, mortuary, and public health consequences. This article discusses the current difficulties of disaster death attribution and describes the strengths and limitations of relying on death counts from death certificates, estimations of indirect deaths, and estimations of excess mortality. Improving the tabulation of direct and indirect deaths on death certificates will require concerted efforts and consensus across medical institutions and public health agencies. In addition, actionable estimates of excess mortality will require timely access to standardized and structured vital registry data, which should be shared directly at the state level to ensure rapid response for local governments. Correct attribution of direct and indirect deaths and estimation of excess mortality are complementary goals that are critical to our understanding of the pandemic and its effect on human life.

Stigma as a fundamental hindrance to the United States opioid overdose crisis response.

Alexander Tsai and co-authors discuss the role of stigma in responses to the US opioid crisis.

Performance of Matching Methods as Compared With Unmatched Ordinary Least Squares Regression Under Constant Effects.

Matching methods are assumed to reduce the likelihood of a biased inference compared with ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. Using simulations, we compared inferences from propensity score matching, coarsened exact matching, and unmatched covariate-adjusted OLS regression to identify which methods, in which scenarios, produced unbiased inferences at the expected type I error rate of 5%. We simulated multiple data sets and systematically varied common support, discontinuities in the exposure and/or outcome, exposure prevalence, and analytical model misspecification. Matching inferences were often biased in comparison with OLS, particularly when common support was poor; when analysis models were correctly specified and common support was poor, the type I error rate was 1.6% for propensity score matching (statistically inefficient), 18.2% for coarsened exact matching (high), and 4.8% for OLS (expected). Our results suggest that when estimates from matching and OLS are similar (i.e., confidence intervals overlap), OLS inferences are unbiased more often than matching inferences; however, when estimates from matching and OLS are dissimilar (i.e., confidence intervals do not overlap), matching inferences are unbiased more often than OLS inferences. This empirical "rule of thumb" may help applied researchers identify situations in which OLS inferences may be unbiased as compared with matching inferences.

Trends in Black and White Opioid Mortality in the United States, 1979-2015.

BACKGROUND: Recent research on the US opioid epidemic has focused on the white or total population and has largely been limited to data after 1999. However, understanding racial differences in long-term trends by opioid type may contribute to improving interventions. METHODS: Using multiple cause of death data, we calculated age-standardized opioid mortality rates, by race and opioid type, for the US resident population from 1979 to 2015. We analyzed trends in mortality rates using joinpoint regression. RESULTS: From 1979 to 2015, the long-term trends in opioid-related mortality for Earlier data did not include ethnicity so this is incorrect. It is all black and all white residents in the US. blacks and whites went through three successive waves. In the first wave, from 1979 to the mid-1990s, the epidemic affected both populations and was driven by heroin. In the second wave, from the mid-1990s to 2010, the increase in opioid mortality was driven by natural/semi-synthetic opioids (e.g., codeine, morphine, hydrocodone, or oxycodone) among whites, while there was no increase in mortality for blacks. In the current wave, increases in opioid mortality for both populations have been driven by heroin and synthetic opioids (e.g., fentanyl and its analogues). Heroin rates are currently increasing at 31% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 27, 35) per year for whites and 34% (95% CI = 30, 40) for blacks. Concurrently, respective synthetic opioids are increasing at 79% (95% CI = 50, 112) and 107% (95% CI = -15, 404) annually. CONCLUSION: Since 1979, the nature of the opioid epidemic has shifted from heroin to prescription opioids for the white population to increasing of heroin/synthetic deaths for both black and white populations. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B377.

Police Killings and Police Deaths Are Public Health Data and Can Be Counted.

Nancy Krieger and colleagues argue that law-enforcement-related deaths in the United States should be treated as notifiable conditions, which would allow public health departments to report these data in real-time.