Validation of a predictive model for identifying an increased risk for recurrence in adolescents and young adults with a first provoked thromboembolism.

BACKGROUND: To develop and validate a predictive model to determinate patients at increased risk to suffer from recurrence following a first provoked deep vein thrombosis (VTE). METHODS: Predictive variables, i.e. male sex [1 point], inherited thrombophilia (IT) status (none [0 points], single [1 point], combined variants [2 points]), blood group non-0, and age at first VTE onset were included into a risk assessment model, which was derived in 511 patients and then validated in 509 independent subjects. RESULTS: VTE recurrence risk score (maximum 4 points, range 0-3) was below two for patients scored as low-risk (LRS) and ≥2 for patients at high-risk (HRS). Within a median time of 3 years after withdrawal of anticoagulation (AC) recurrence rate in LRG (derivation) was 11.8% versus 26.0% in HRS (p < 0.001). In the validation cohort within 2.2 years the recurrence rate was 9.8% in LRS versus 30.1% in HRS (p < 0.001). In multivariable analysis adjusted for age at first VTE and blood group the recurrent risk in HRS was significantly increased compared with the LRS (derivation: hazard/95% confidence interval: 3.7/1.75-7.91; validation: 4.7/2.24-9.81; combined 5.2/1.92-13.9). Model specificity (sensitivity) was 79.0% (52.0%) in the derivation cohort compared with 78.0% (43.0%) in the validation group. In conclusion, in the prediction model presented here the risk of VTE recurrence was associated with male gender and combined ITs. Based on the negative predictive value calculated the model may identify patients with a first provoked VTE not being at risk for recurrence.

Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Construct Validity of the Generic KINDL-A(dult)B(rief) Questionnaire in Adults with Thrombophilia or with Hereditary and Acquired Bleeding Disorders.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The newly adapted generic KINDL-A(dult)B(rief) questionnaire showed satisfactory cross-sectional psychometric properties in adults with bleeding disorders or thrombophilia. This investigation aimed to evaluate its cross-sectional and longitudinal construct validity. METHODS: After ethical committee approval and written informed consent, 335 patients (mean age 51.8 ± 16.6 years, 60% women) with either predominant thrombophilia (n = 260) or predominant bleeding disorders (n = 75) participated. At baseline, patients answered the KINDL-AB, the MOS 36-item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36), and the EQ-5D-3L. A subgroup of 117 patients repeated the questionnaire after a median follow-up of 2.6 years (range: 0.4-3.5). A priori hypotheses were evaluated regarding convergent correlations between KINDL-AB overall well-being and specific subscales, EQ-5D-3L index values (EQ-IV), EQ-5D visual analog scale (EQ-VAS), and SF-36 subscales. RESULTS: Contrary to hypothesis, baseline correlations between the KINDL-AB and EQ-IV/EQ-VAS were all moderate while, as hypothesized, several KINDL-AB subscales and SF-36 subscales correlated strongly. At follow-up, no significant changes in all three instruments occurred. Correlations between instruments over the follow-up were mostly moderate and partially strong. Contrary to hypothesis but consistent with no significant changes in health-related quality of life, convergent correlations between changes in KINDL-AB overall well-being, physical and psychological well-being, and EQ-IV/EQ-VAS were all weak. CONCLUSIONS: While repeated measures of KINDL-AB showed moderate to strong correlations, changes in KINDL-AB overall well-being and subscales correlated more weakly than expected with changes involving two established instruments of generic health status.

Role of prothrombin 19911 A>G polymorphism, blood group and male gender in patients with venous thromboembolism: Results of a German cohort study.

The role of the A>G polymorphism at position 19911 in the prothrombin gene (factor [F] 2 at rs3136516) as a risk factor for venous thromboembolism [VTE] is still unclear. To evaluate the presence of the F2 polymorphism in VTE patients compared to healthy blood donors and to adjust the results for common inherited thrombophilias [IT], age at onset and blood group [BG], and to calculate the risk of VTE recurrence. We investigated 1012 Caucasian patients with a diagnosis of VTE for the presence of the F2 rs3136516 polymorphism and compared these with 902 healthy blood donors. Odds ratios [OR] together with their 95% confidence intervals were calculated adjusted for F5 at rs6025, F2 at rs1799963, blood group, age and gender. In addition, we evaluated the risk of recurrent VTE during patient follow-up calculating hazard ratios [HR] together with their 95% CI. Compared with the AA wildtype, the F2 GG and AG genotypes (rs3136516) were associated with VTE (OR 1.48 and 1.45). The OR in F5 carriers compared to controls was 5.68 and 2.38 in patients with F2 (rs1799963). BG "non-O" was significantly more often diagnosed in patients compared to BG "O" (OR 2.74). VTE recurrence more often occurred in males (HR 2.3) and in carriers with combined thrombophilia (HR 2.11). Noteworthy, the rs3136516 polymorphism alone was not associated significantly with recurrence. In Caucasian patients with VTE the F2 GG/GA genotypes (rs3136516) were moderate risk factors for VTE. Recurrence was associated with male gender and combined thrombophilia.