Time-dependent Data-driven Modeling of Active Region Evolution Using Energy-optimized Photospheric Electric Fields.

In this work, we present results of a time-dependent data-driven numerical simulation developed to study the dynamics of coronal active region magnetic fields. The evolving boundary condition driving the model, the photospheric electric field, is inverted using a time sequence of vector magnetograms as input. We invert three distinct electric field datasets for a single active region. All three electric fields reproduce the observed evolution of the normal component of the magnetic field. Two of the datasets are constructed so as to match the energy input into the corona to that provided by a reference estimate. Using the three inversions as input to a time-dependent magnetofrictional model, we study the response of the coronal magnetic field to the driving electric fields. The simulations reveal the magnetic field evolution to be sensitive to the input electric field despite the normal component of the magnetic field evolving identically and the total energy injection being largely similar. Thus, we demonstrate that the total energy injection is not sufficient to characterize the evolution of the coronal magnetic field: coronal evolution can be very different despite similar energy injections. We find the relative helicity to be an important additional metric that allows one to distinguish the simulations. In particular, the simulation with the highest relative helicity content produces a coronal flux rope that subsequently erupts, largely in agreement with extreme-ultraviolet imaging observations of the corresponding event. Our results suggest that time-dependent data-driven simulations that employ carefully constructed driving boundary conditions offer a valuable tool for modeling and characterizing the evolution of coronal magnetic fields. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s11207-019-1430-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Assessing the Performance of EUHFORIA Modeling the Background Solar Wind.

In order to address the growing need for more accurate space-weather predictions, a new model named EUHFORIA (EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset) was recently developed. We present the first results of the performance assessment for the solar-wind modeling with EUHFORIA and identify possible limitations of its present setup. Using the basic EUHFORIA 1.0.4 model setup with the default input parameters, we modeled background solar wind (no coronal mass ejections) and compared the obtained results with Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) in-situ measurements. For the purposes of statistical study we developed a technique of combining daily EUHFORIA runs into continuous time series. The combined time series were derived for the years 2008 (low solar activity) and 2012 (high solar activity), from which in-situ speed and density profiles were extracted. We find for the low-activity phase a better match between model results and observations compared to the high-activity time interval considered. The quality of the modeled solar-wind parameters is found to be rather variable. Therefore, to better understand the results obtained we also qualitatively inspected characteristics of coronal holes, i.e. the sources of the studied fast streams. We discuss how different characteristics of the coronal holes and input parameters to EUHFORIA influence the modeled fast solar wind, and suggest possibilities for the improvement of the model.

Magnetic Structure and Propagation of Two Interacting CMEs From the Sun to Saturn.

One of the grand challenges in heliophysics is the characterization of coronal mass ejection (CME) magnetic structure and evolution from eruption at the Sun through heliospheric propagation. At present, the main difficulties are related to the lack of direct measurements of the coronal magnetic fields and the lack of 3D in-situ measurements of the CME body in interplanetary space. Nevertheless, the evolution of a CME magnetic structure can be followed using a combination of multi-point remote-sensing observations and multi-spacecraft in-situ measurements as well as modeling. Accordingly, we present in this work the analysis of two CMEs that erupted from the Sun on April 28, 2012. We follow their eruption and early evolution using remote-sensing data, finding indications of CME-CME interaction, and then analyze their interplanetary counterpart(s) using in-situ measurements at Venus, Earth, and Saturn. We observe a seemingly single flux rope at all locations, but find possible signatures of interaction at Earth, where high-cadence plasma data are available. Reconstructions of the in-situ flux ropes provide almost identical results at Venus and Earth but show greater discrepancies at Saturn, suggesting that the CME was highly distorted and/or that further interaction with nearby solar wind structures took place before 10 AU. This work highlights the difficulties in connecting structures from the Sun to the outer heliosphere and demonstrates the importance of multi-spacecraft studies to achieve a deeper understanding of the magnetic configuration of CMEs.

Understanding the Origins of Problem Geomagnetic Storms Associated with "Stealth" Coronal Mass Ejections.

Geomagnetic storms are an important aspect of space weather and can result in significant impacts on space- and ground-based assets. The majority of strong storms are associated with the passage of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) in the near-Earth environment. In many cases, these ICMEs can be traced back unambiguously to a specific coronal mass ejection (CME) and solar activity on the frontside of the Sun. Hence, predicting the arrival of ICMEs at Earth from routine observations of CMEs and solar activity currently makes a major contribution to the forecasting of geomagnetic storms. However, it is clear that some ICMEs, which may also cause enhanced geomagnetic activity, cannot be traced back to an observed CME, or, if the CME is identified, its origin may be elusive or ambiguous in coronal images. Such CMEs have been termed "stealth CMEs". In this review, we focus on these "problem" geomagnetic storms in the sense that the solar/CME precursors are enigmatic and stealthy. We start by reviewing evidence for stealth CMEs discussed in past studies. We then identify several moderate to strong geomagnetic storms (minimum Dst < - 50  nT) in solar cycle 24 for which the related solar sources and/or CMEs are unclear and apparently stealthy. We discuss the solar and in situ circumstances of these events and identify several scenarios that may account for their elusive solar signatures. These range from observational limitations (e.g., a coronagraph near Earth may not detect an incoming CME if it is diffuse and not wide enough) to the possibility that there is a class of mass ejections from the Sun that have only weak or hard-to-observe coronal signatures. In particular, some of these sources are only clearly revealed by considering the evolution of coronal structures over longer time intervals than is usually considered. We also review a variety of numerical modelling approaches that attempt to advance our understanding of the origins and consequences of stealthy solar eruptions with geoeffective potential. Specifically, we discuss magnetofrictional modelling of the energisation of stealth CME source regions and magnetohydrodynamic modelling of the physical processes that generate stealth CME or CME-like eruptions, typically from higher altitudes in the solar corona than CMEs from active regions or extended filament channels.

Coronal mass ejections and their sheath regions in interplanetary space.

Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are large-scale heliospheric transients that originate from the Sun. When an ICME is sufficiently faster than the preceding solar wind, a shock wave develops ahead of the ICME. The turbulent region between the shock and the ICME is called the sheath region. ICMEs and their sheaths and shocks are all interesting structures from the fundamental plasma physics viewpoint. They are also key drivers of space weather disturbances in the heliosphere and planetary environments. ICME-driven shock waves can accelerate charged particles to high energies. Sheaths and ICMEs drive practically all intense geospace storms at the Earth, and they can also affect dramatically the planetary radiation environments and atmospheres. This review focuses on the current understanding of observational signatures and properties of ICMEs and the associated sheath regions based on five decades of studies. In addition, we discuss modelling of ICMEs and many fundamental outstanding questions on their origin, evolution and effects, largely due to the limitations of single spacecraft observations of these macro-scale structures. We also present current understanding of space weather consequences of these large-scale solar wind structures, including effects at the other Solar System planets and exoplanets. We specially emphasize the different origin, properties and consequences of the sheaths and ICMEs.

Observations of an extreme storm in interplanetary space caused by successive coronal mass ejections.

Space weather refers to dynamic conditions on the Sun and in the space environment of the Earth, which are often driven by solar eruptions and their subsequent interplanetary disturbances. It has been unclear how an extreme space weather storm forms and how severe it can be. Here we report and investigate an extreme event with multi-point remote-sensing and in situ observations. The formation of the extreme storm showed striking novel features. We suggest that the in-transit interaction between two closely launched coronal mass ejections resulted in the extreme enhancement of the ejecta magnetic field observed near 1 AU at STEREO A. The fast transit to STEREO A (in only 18.6 h), or the unusually weak deceleration of the event, was caused by the preconditioning of the upstream solar wind by an earlier solar eruption. These results provide a new view crucial to solar physics and space weather as to how an extreme space weather event can arise from a combination of solar eruptions.